Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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000
FXUS10 KWNH 220635
PMDHMD

MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
234 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

VALID MAY 22/0000 UTC THRU MAY 25/1200 UTC

...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR
INGEST...

00Z MODEL EVALUATION WITH PREFERENCES
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
GFS/NAM INITIALIZATION ERRORS DO NOT SEEM TO DEGRADE THEIR SHORT
RANGE FORECASTS.


SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST SAT/SUN
SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH NV SATURDAY NIGHT
SYSTEM MOVING FROM SOUTHWEST INTO NRN HIGH PLAINS SUN/MON
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PREFERENCE: NON-UKMET COMPROMISE
CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE

ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, THE 00Z UKMET HAS BECOME A
QUICK/SOUTHEAST OUTLIER.  THE 00Z GFS BRINGS AN VORTICITY LOBE
THROUGH NV SATURDAY NIGHT WHICH IS SIGNIFICANTLY STRONGER THAN THE
OTHER GUIDANCE, THOUGH THE 00Z ECMWF HAS TRENDED TOWARDS ITS
SOLUTION.  IN REGARDS TO THE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS, THE GUIDANCE IS NOW IN GOOD AGREEMENT.  IN GENERAL, A
COMPROMISE OF THE 00Z ECMWF/00Z CANADIAN/00Z NAM/00Z GFS -- OR
NON-UKMET -- MASS FIELDS LOOKS BEST IN THIS REGION WITH ABOVE
AVERAGE CONFIDENCE.


SYSTEMS MOVING BY THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY/SATURDAY
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PREFERENCE: GENERAL MODEL COMPROMISE
CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE

THE GUIDANCE HANDLES FEATURES IN THIS REGION SIMILARLY.


...MODEL TREND GRAPHICS AT
www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/model2.shtml...

...500 MB FORECASTS AT
www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml...

ROTH
$$




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