Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
Issued by NWS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4
000
FXUS06 KWBC 052002
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EST THU MARCH 05 2015

6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR MAR 11 - 15 2015

TODAY`S MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE 500-HPA CIRCULATION
PATTERN FORECAST FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. ALL ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE FORECASTING A
TROUGH OVER ALASKA EXTENDING INTO THE NORTH PACIFIC, A RIDGE OVER WESTERN
CANADA, SPLIT-FLOW WITH A TROUGH OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CONUS INTO MEXICO, AND
A TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA AND THE NORTH ATLANTIC. NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT
ANOMALIES ARE FORECAST OVER MOST OF ALASKA AND SOUTHERN TEXAS, AND POSITIVE
HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE FORECAST OVER THE REST OF THE CONUS.

ENHANCED PROBABILITIES OF NEAR-NORMAL OR BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST
OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND TEXAS, AS WELL AS THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND
COASTAL REGIONS. PREDICTED ABOVE-NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS ALOFT ENHANCE
PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE REST OF THE CONUS.
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE MOST LIKELY FOR THE NORTH SLOPE, WHILE
BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE MOST LIKELY FOR MOST OF SOUTHERN ALASKA, UNDER
THE PREDICTED TROUGH.

ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS MOST LIKELY FOR THE WEST COAST STATES FROM
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA NORTHWARD, AS WELL AS FOR PARTS OF ALASKA INCLUDING THE
PANHANDLE, AHEAD OF THE TROUGH OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC, AND THE WESTERN COAST.
ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS ALSO MOST LIKELY FOR PARTS OF THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION AND SOUTHERN TEXAS AS WELL AS THE SOUTHEAST, UNDER THE PREDICTED
SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH. BELOW-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES ARE ENHANCED
FROM THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE NORTHEAST, DOWNSTREAM OF THE
PREDICTED RIDGE.


TODAY`S OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 25% OF TODAY`S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, 40% OF TODAY`S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8,
10% OF TODAY`S OPERATIONAL 0Z ECMWF CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 25% OF TODAY`S 0Z
CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8


MODEL OF THE DAY: THE 00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN

FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODEL FORECASTS AND AMONG THE TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TOOLS.

8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR MAR 13 - 19 2015

ENSEMBLE MODEL PREDICTIONS OF THE 500-HPA HEIGHT PATTERN FOR THE WEEK-2 PERIOD
ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT OVER NORTH AMERICA. THE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
BELOW-NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS OVER ALASKA IN THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD IS PREDICTED TO
BE LESS AMPLIFIED IN THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD, AS ABOVE-NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS
INCREASE AND BECOME ABOVE-NORMAL OVER THE STATE. ABOVE-NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHT
ANOMALIES CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN CONUS ARE ALSO PREDICTED TO DECREASE IN
MAGNITUDE DURING THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD.

THE TEMPERATURE PATTERN IS VERY SIMILAR IN THE 6-10 DAY AND THE 8-14 DAY
FORECAST PERIODS, WITH GENERALLY REDUCED PROBABILITIES IN THE 8-14 DAY FORECAST
AS UNCERTAINTY INCREASES. NEAR-NORMAL IS MOST LIKELY OVER SOUTHERN ALASKA IN
THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD WHERE ENHANCED PROBABILITIES OF BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECAST IN THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD, AS ABOVE-NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS ARE NOW
PREDICTED.

MORE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THE PRECIPITATION PATTERN ARE PREDICTED FOR THE
8-14 DAY PERIOD. NEAR-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS NOW MOST LIKELY FOR THE PACIFIC
COAST, AS THE TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC OCEAN IS DISSIPATING. ABOVE-MEDIAN
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE ENHANCED FOR A SLIGHTLY LARGER AREA OF THE SOUTHWEST,
WHILE ENHANCED PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION OVER THE EASTERN
U.S. EXTEND FURTHER NORTH IN THE 8-14 DAY FORECAST. NEAR-MEDIAN IS MORE LIKELY
THAN BELOW-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION OVER NEW ENGLAND IN THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD.


THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF: 25% OF TODAY`S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE
MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 50% OF TODAY`S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 11, AND 25% OF TODAY`S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11


FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS: BELOW AVERAGE, 2 OUT OF 5, DUE
TO ONLY FAIR AGREEMENT AMONG THE TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TOOLS, AS WELL
AS INCREASING UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST CIRCULATION PATTERN.

FORECASTER: DAN COLLINS

NOTES:


AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OCCASIONALLY MANUAL
INTERVENTION IS NECESSARY TO ADDRESS QUALITY CONTROL AND CONSISTENCY ISSUES.
IN THESE CASES, FORECASTS ARE MANUALLY DRAWN BUT A FULL DISCUSSION IS NOT
ISSUED.

THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS
THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE   N-NEAR NORMAL   B-BELOW

THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER
(ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N")
HISTORICAL AVERAGE VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST
(DASHES, "F").  LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY
(> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).  PROBABILITY OF N IS
ALWAYS < 40%.

THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING
WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N")
HISTORICAL MEDIAN VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST
(DASHES, "INCHES").  LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY
(> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).  PROBABILITY OF N IS
ALWAYS < 40%.

IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL
BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY
EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY
SEASONS.  IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A
FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION.

THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1981-2010 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR
TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN
THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.

THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
MARCH 19

ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19660214 - 19890213 - 19670306 - 20020303 - 20060219


ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19670306 - 19660214 - 20060219 - 19890212 - 20020304


6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR MAR 11 - 15 2015

STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON  A    A     OREGON      A    A     NRN CALIF   A    A
SRN CALIF   A    N     IDAHO       A    N     NEVADA      A    N
W MONTANA   A    N     E MONTANA   A    N     WYOMING     A    N
UTAH        A    A     ARIZONA     A    A     COLORADO    A    N
NEW MEXICO  N    A     N DAKOTA    A    N     S DAKOTA    A    B
NEBRASKA    A    B     KANSAS      A    B     OKLAHOMA    A    B
N TEXAS     N    N     S TEXAS     B    A     W TEXAS     B    A
MINNESOTA   A    N     IOWA        A    B     MISSOURI    A    B
ARKANSAS    A    A     LOUISIANA   N    A     WISCONSIN   A    B
ILLINOIS    A    B     MISSISSIPPI A    A     MICHIGAN    A    B
INDIANA     A    B     OHIO        A    B     KENTUCKY    A    A
TENNESSEE   A    A     ALABAMA     A    A     NEW YORK    A    B
VERMONT     N    B     NEW HAMP    N    B     MAINE       N    B
MASS        N    B     CONN        N    B     RHODE IS    N    B
PENN        A    B     NEW JERSEY  N    B     W VIRGINIA  A    N
MARYLAND    N    B     DELAWARE    N    B     VIRGINIA    A    A
N CAROLINA  A    A     S CAROLINA  A    A     GEORGIA     A    A
FL PNHDL    A    A     FL PENIN    A    A     AK N SLOPE  N    N
AK ALEUTIAN B    N     AK WESTERN  B    N     AK INT BSN  B    N
AK S INT    B    B     AK SO COAST B    B     AK PNHDL    B    A



8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR MAR 13 - 19 2015

STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON  A    N     OREGON      A    N     NRN CALIF   A    N
SRN CALIF   A    N     IDAHO       A    N     NEVADA      A    N
W MONTANA   A    N     E MONTANA   A    N     WYOMING     A    N
UTAH        A    A     ARIZONA     A    A     COLORADO    A    A
NEW MEXICO  B    A     N DAKOTA    A    B     S DAKOTA    A    N
NEBRASKA    A    N     KANSAS      A    N     OKLAHOMA    A    A
N TEXAS     N    A     S TEXAS     B    A     W TEXAS     B    A
MINNESOTA   A    B     IOWA        A    B     MISSOURI    A    N
ARKANSAS    A    A     LOUISIANA   A    A     WISCONSIN   A    B
ILLINOIS    A    N     MISSISSIPPI A    A     MICHIGAN    A    B
INDIANA     A    A     OHIO        A    A     KENTUCKY    A    A
TENNESSEE   A    A     ALABAMA     A    A     NEW YORK    N    N
VERMONT     N    N     NEW HAMP    N    N     MAINE       A    N
MASS        N    N     CONN        N    N     RHODE IS    N    N
PENN        A    A     NEW JERSEY  N    A     W VIRGINIA  A    A
MARYLAND    A    A     DELAWARE    A    A     VIRGINIA    A    A
N CAROLINA  A    A     S CAROLINA  A    A     GEORGIA     A    A
FL PNHDL    A    A     FL PENIN    A    A     AK N SLOPE  A    N
AK ALEUTIAN A    B     AK WESTERN  N    N     AK INT BSN  N    N
AK S INT    N    B     AK SO COAST N    B     AK PNHDL    A    N

                           LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL     PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE   N  - NEAR NORMAL     A - ABOVE   N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW                        B - BELOW

THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.

$$




USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.