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FXUS06 KWBC 122001
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EST FRI FEBRUARY 12 2016

6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR FEB 18 - 22 2016

TODAY`S MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE PREDICTED 500-HPA CIRCULATION
PATTERN OVER THE NORTH AMERICAN FORECAST DOMAIN FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. MODELS
INDICATE A TROUGH OVER THE BEING SEA/ALEUTIANS, A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN U.S.
AND EASTERN ALASKA, AND A TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA AND THE NORTHEASTERN U.S.
A SOUTHERN JET STREAM UNDERCUTS THE RIDGE EXPECTED OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. THE
BLENDED 500-HPA HEIGHT CHART DEPICTS ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS OVER THE CONUS AND
BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS OVER ALASKA. THE ENSEMBLE SPAGHETTI CHARTS GENERALLY
INDICATE MODERATE SPREAD ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST DOMAIN.

ENHANCED PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR MOST OF
THE CONUS DUE TO THE EXPECTATION OF ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS AND THE LACK OF ARCTIC
AIR INTRUSIONS INTO THE COUNTRY. FOR ALASKA, ANOMALOUS SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF
THE TROUGH OVER THE BERING SEA ENHANCES PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR MOST OF THE STATE.

THE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND THE LARGE AREA OF ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS
ENHANCE PROBABILITIES FOR BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
AND PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GREAT BASIN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. THE TROUGH EXPECTED
OVER THE NORTHEAST, AND ANOMALOUS SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE NORTHWEST TILT THE
ODDS TO ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR MUCH OF THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS.
JET STREAM ENERGY UNDERCUTTING THE WESTERN RIDGE TILT THE ODDS TO ABOVE MEDIAN
PRECIPITATION FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
ANOMALOUS SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ENHANCES PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE MEDIAN
PRECIPITATION FOR SOUTH COASTAL ALASKA AND THE ALASKA PANHANDLE, WHILE THE
RIDGE FORECAST OVER EASTERN ALASKA FAVORS BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR
NORTHERN ALASKA.

TODAY`S OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 20% OF TODAY`S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, 20% OF TODAY`S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 5% OF
TODAY`S OPERATIONAL 0Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8, 10% OF TODAY`S 0Z EUROPEAN
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 15% OF YESTERDAY`S 12Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 7, 5% OF TODAY`S OPERATIONAL 0Z ECMWF CENTERED ON DAY 8, 10% OF
TODAY`S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 15% OF YESTERDAY`S 12Z
CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 7


FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE 500-HPA PATTERN AND GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG
THE FORECAST TOOLS.

8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR FEB 20 - 26 2016

MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE PREDICTED 500-HPA CIRCULATION
PATTERN OVER THE NORTH AMERICAN FORECAST DOMAIN FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD.
TROUGHS ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS AND THE NORTHEAST CONUS
(ALTHOUGH RELATIVELY WEAK FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR), WHILE A RIDGE STRENGTHENS
OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND ALASKA. THE AMPLIFICATION OF THIS RIDGE LEADS TO AN
AMPLIFICATION OF THE NORTHEASTERN TROUGH BACK TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES. JET
ENERGY IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM IS PREDICTED TO UNDERCUT THE WESTERN RIDGE. THE
ENSEMBLE SPAGHETTI CHARTS GENERALLY INDICATE LOW TO MODERATE SPREAD OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS, AND MODERATE TO LARGE SPREAD OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND THE
EASTERN PACIFIC. THE BLENDED HEIGHT CHART INDICATES ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS OVER
THE ENTIRE CONUS AND CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALASKA, AND BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS OVER
SOUTHWESTERN ALASKA AND THE ALEUTIANS.

THE PREDICTED TEMPERATURE PATTERN FOR WEEK-2 IS VERY SIMILAR TO THAT DEPICTED
FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. ONE DIFFERENCE IS THAT AS THE WESTERN RIDGE AMPLIFIES,
THE DOWNSTREAM TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO ALSO AMPLIFY WHICH IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO
A COOLER PATTERN OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

FOR PRECIPITATION, ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS TILT THE ODDS TO BELOW MEDIAN FOR MUCH
OF THE WESTERN CONUS. A SOUTHERN JET STREAM ENHANCES PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE
MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR TEXAS AND THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. ABOVE MEDIAN
PRECIPITATION IS ALSO ANTICIPATED FOR THE GREAT LAKES, TENNESSEE, OHIO, AND
LOWER AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS, AND NORTHEAST CONUS DUE TO THE TROUGH
EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHEAST. THE TROUGH OVER THE BERING SEA FAVORS ABOVE MEDIAN
PRECIPITATION FOR THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS, SOUTHWESTERN ALASKA, AND THE ALASKA
PANHANDLE. THE RIDGE OVER ALASKA ENHANCES PROBABILITIES FOR BELOW MEDIAN
PRECIPITATION FOR NORTHEASTERN ALASKA.

THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF: 10% OF TODAY`S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE
MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 15% OF TODAY`S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
11, 15% OF TODAY`S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 30% OF TODAY`S 0Z
EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 20% OF TODAY`S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE
MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 10% OF YESTERDAY`S 12Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 10


FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS: AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE 500-HPA PATTERN BUT SOME DISAGREEMENT IN THE
FORECAST TOOLS, ESPECIALLY FOR PRECIPITATION.

FORECASTER: RANDY SCHECHTER

NOTES:


AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OCCASIONALLY MANUAL
INTERVENTION IS NECESSARY TO ADDRESS QUALITY CONTROL AND CONSISTENCY ISSUES.
IN THESE CASES, FORECASTS ARE MANUALLY DRAWN BUT A FULL DISCUSSION IS NOT
ISSUED.

THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS
THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE   N-NEAR NORMAL   B-BELOW

THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER
(ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N")
HISTORICAL AVERAGE VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST
(DASHES, "F").  LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY
(> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).  PROBABILITY OF N IS
ALWAYS < 40%.

THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING
WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N")
HISTORICAL MEDIAN VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST
(DASHES, "INCHES").  LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY
(> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).  PROBABILITY OF N IS
ALWAYS < 40%.

IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL
BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY
EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY
SEASONS.  IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A
FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION.

THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1981-2010 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR
TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN
THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.

THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
FEBRUARY 18

ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19950203 - 19770218 - 20030124 - 19540207 - 19860127


ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19950203 - 19770218 - 20030126 - 19540208 - 19910212


6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR FEB 18 - 22 2016

STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON  A    A     OREGON      A    A     NRN CALIF   A    A
SRN CALIF   A    B     IDAHO       A    A     NEVADA      A    N
W MONTANA   A    N     E MONTANA   A    N     WYOMING     A    B
UTAH        A    B     ARIZONA     A    B     COLORADO    A    B
NEW MEXICO  A    N     N DAKOTA    A    N     S DAKOTA    A    B
NEBRASKA    A    B     KANSAS      A    N     OKLAHOMA    A    A
N TEXAS     A    A     S TEXAS     A    A     W TEXAS     A    A
MINNESOTA   A    A     IOWA        A    N     MISSOURI    A    N
ARKANSAS    A    A     LOUISIANA   A    N     WISCONSIN   A    A
ILLINOIS    A    N     MISSISSIPPI A    N     MICHIGAN    A    A
INDIANA     A    N     OHIO        A    N     KENTUCKY    A    N
TENNESSEE   A    N     ALABAMA     A    B     NEW YORK    A    N
VERMONT     A    A     NEW HAMP    A    N     MAINE       A    A
MASS        A    N     CONN        A    N     RHODE IS    A    N
PENN        A    N     NEW JERSEY  A    B     W VIRGINIA  A    B
MARYLAND    A    B     DELAWARE    A    B     VIRGINIA    A    B
N CAROLINA  A    B     S CAROLINA  A    B     GEORGIA     A    B
FL PNHDL    N    B     FL PENIN    N    B     AK N SLOPE  N    B
AK ALEUTIAN A    N     AK WESTERN  A    B     AK INT BSN  A    B
AK S INT    A    A     AK SO COAST A    A     AK PNHDL    A    A



8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR FEB 20 - 26 2016

STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON  A    N     OREGON      A    B     NRN CALIF   A    B
SRN CALIF   A    B     IDAHO       A    B     NEVADA      A    B
W MONTANA   A    B     E MONTANA   A    B     WYOMING     A    B
UTAH        A    B     ARIZONA     A    B     COLORADO    A    B
NEW MEXICO  A    N     N DAKOTA    N    B     S DAKOTA    A    B
NEBRASKA    A    B     KANSAS      A    N     OKLAHOMA    A    A
N TEXAS     A    A     S TEXAS     A    A     W TEXAS     A    A
MINNESOTA   N    B     IOWA        A    N     MISSOURI    A    A
ARKANSAS    A    A     LOUISIANA   A    A     WISCONSIN   N    N
ILLINOIS    A    A     MISSISSIPPI A    A     MICHIGAN    A    A
INDIANA     A    A     OHIO        A    A     KENTUCKY    A    A
TENNESSEE   A    A     ALABAMA     A    A     NEW YORK    A    A
VERMONT     A    A     NEW HAMP    A    A     MAINE       A    A
MASS        A    A     CONN        A    A     RHODE IS    A    A
PENN        A    A     NEW JERSEY  A    A     W VIRGINIA  A    A
MARYLAND    A    A     DELAWARE    A    A     VIRGINIA    A    A
N CAROLINA  A    N     S CAROLINA  A    N     GEORGIA     A    N
FL PNHDL    A    N     FL PENIN    A    N     AK N SLOPE  A    B
AK ALEUTIAN A    N     AK WESTERN  A    N     AK INT BSN  A    B
AK S INT    A    A     AK SO COAST A    A     AK PNHDL    A    A

                           LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL     PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE   N  - NEAR NORMAL     A - ABOVE   N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW                        B - BELOW

THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.

$$




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