Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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FXUS06 KWBC 301902
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EDT MON MAY 30 2016

6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUN 05 - 09 2016

RECENT ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE PREDICTED 500-HPA
CIRCULATION OVER NORTH AMERICA DURING THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. AN UNUSUALLY
AMPLIFIED FLOW PATTERN IS FORECAST WITH TROUGHS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS, THE
ALEUTIANS/GULF OF ALASKA, AND ALONG THE U.S. WEST COAST, AND A RIDGE OVER THE
INTERIOR WESTERN CONUS WHICH EXTENDS NORTH/NORTHWESTWARD TO WESTERN CANADA AND
EASTERN ALASKA. THE MOST RECENT HIGH RESOLUTION SOLUTIONS FROM THE GFS AND
ECMWF ARE IN BASICALLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THEIR RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLE MEANS
ALTHOUGH THE HIGH RESOLUTION SOLUTIONS ARE A BIT MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THE
OVERALL PATTERN, AND A BIT LESS PROGRESSIVE WITH THE TROUGH FORECAST OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS. THE ENSEMBLE SPAGHETTI CHARTS GENERALLY INDICATE LOW TO MODERATE
SPREAD OVER THE EASTERN CONUS, AND MODERATE TO LARGE SPREAD OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS AND EASTERN PACIFIC. TODAY`S 500-HPA BLENDED HEIGH CHART INDICATES NEAR
TO BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS OVER MOST OF THE EASTERN CONUS AND ALASKA, AND NEAR TO
ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. THE LARGEST POSITIVE HEIGHT
ANOMALIES ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES, WHILE THE LARGEST NEGATIVE
HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE FORECAST OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND EASTERN PACIFIC.

ANOMALOUS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ENHANCES PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR PARTS OF FLORIDA AND COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC AND
SOUTHEAST. BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS AND ANOMALOUS NORTHERLY FLOW FAVOR BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR THE CENTRAL, NORTHEASTERN, AND INTERIOR EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE CONUS. ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS TILT THE ODDS TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FROM
THE WEST COAST OF THE CONUS TO THE HIGH PLAINS. ABOVE NORMAL SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES, ANOMALOUS SOUTHERLY FLOW, AND PERSISTENCE ENHANCE PROBABILITIES
FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR ALASKA.

THE TROUGH EXPECTED OVER THE EASTERN CONUS FAVORS ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION
FOR MUCH OF THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS AND ALONG THE GULF COAST. ABOVE
NORMAL HEIGHTS AND ANOMALOUS NORTHERLY FLOW TILT THE ODDS TO NEAR TO BELOW
MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CONUS. THE TROUGH NEAR THE WEST
COAST FAVORS ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR PARTS OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA, THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST, THE CENTRAL GREAT BASIN, AND PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST,
SOUTHERN ROCKIES, AND SOUTHERN HIGHPLAINS. THE TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA
FAVORS ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR MUCH OF SOUTHERN ALASKA AND THE ALASKA
PANHANDLE, WHILE ANOMALOUS NORTHERLY FLOW LEADS TO ENHANCED PROBABILITIES FOR
BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR PARTS OF NORTHWESTERN ALASKA.


TODAY`S OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 15% OF TODAY`S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, 10% OF TODAY`S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 5% OF
TODAY`S OPERATIONAL 0Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8, 15% OF TODAY`S 0Z EUROPEAN
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 20% OF YESTERDAY`S 12Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 7, 5% OF TODAY`S OPERATIONAL 0Z ECMWF CENTERED ON DAY 8, 5% OF
YESTERDAY`S OPERATIONAL 12Z ECMWF CENTERED ON DAY 7, 15% OF TODAY`S 0Z CANADIAN
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 10% OF YESTERDAY`S 12Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE
MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 7


FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS AND FORECAST TOOLS.

8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUN 07 - 13 2016

FOR WEEK-2, THE ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS INDICATE LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE TO THE
CIRCULATION PATTERN FROM THAT EXPECTED DURING THE 6-10 DAY PATTERN, ALTHOUGH
THE WESTERN RIDGE IS FORECAST TO DEAMPLIFY WHILE THE EASTERN TROUGH IS FORECAST
TO PROGRESS SLOWLY EASTWARD. THE ENSEMBLE SPAGHETTI CHARTS CONTINUE TO INDICATE
LOW TO MODERATE SPREAD OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AND MODERATE TO LARGE SPREAD OVER
THE WESTERN CONUS AND EASTERN PACIFIC. THE BLENDED 500-HPA HEIGHT CHART
INDICATES BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS AND THE
ALEUTIANS, WHILE ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
CONUS AND ALASKA.

THE TEMPERATURE PATTERN EXPECTED FOR WEEK-2 IS QUITE SIMILAR TO THAT FORECAST
FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. THE TROUGH PREDICTED OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA ENHANCES
PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR SOUTHERN ALASKA AND THE
NORTHWESTERN CONUS. ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS AND/OR ANOMALOUS NORTH/NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW TILT THE ODDS TO BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR THE CENTRAL CONUS AND
PARTS OF THE INTERIOR SOUTHEAST. THE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST CONUS FAVORS
ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR THE NORTHEAST WHILE ANOMALOUS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ENHANCES PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
FLORIDA. ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS TILT THE ODDS TO BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR
PARTS OF NORTHERN ALASKA.

THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF: 15% OF TODAY`S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE
MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 10% OF TODAY`S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
11, 20% OF TODAY`S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 10% OF TODAY`S
OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11, 5% OF TODAY`S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11, 10% OF YESTERDAY`S 12Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 10, 20% OF TODAY`S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 10% OF
YESTERDAY`S 12Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 10


FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS: ABOUT AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, DUE
TO GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODEL SOLUTIONS, BUT OFFSET BY UNCERTAINTY IN THE
DETAILS OF THE TOOLS.

FORECASTER: RANDY SCHECHTER

NOTES:


AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OCCASIONALLY MANUAL
INTERVENTION IS NECESSARY TO ADDRESS QUALITY CONTROL AND CONSISTENCY ISSUES.
IN THESE CASES, FORECASTS ARE MANUALLY DRAWN BUT A FULL DISCUSSION IS NOT
ISSUED.

THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS
THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE   N-NEAR NORMAL   B-BELOW

THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER
(ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N")
HISTORICAL AVERAGE VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST
(DASHES, "F").  LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY
(> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).  PROBABILITY OF N IS
ALWAYS < 40%.

THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING
WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N")
HISTORICAL MEDIAN VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST
(DASHES, "INCHES").  LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY
(> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).  PROBABILITY OF N IS
ALWAYS < 40%.

IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL
BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY
EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY
SEASONS.  IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A
FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION.

THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1981-2010 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR
TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN
THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.

THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
JUNE 16

ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19990516 - 19910522 - 19780529 - 19920520 - 19960601


ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19910521 - 19990515 - 19960531 - 19780528 - 19920520


6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR JUN 05 - 09 2016

STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON  A    A     OREGON      A    A     NRN CALIF   A    A
SRN CALIF   A    N     IDAHO       A    A     NEVADA      A    A
W MONTANA   A    N     E MONTANA   A    B     WYOMING     A    B
UTAH        A    A     ARIZONA     A    N     COLORADO    A    A
NEW MEXICO  A    A     N DAKOTA    A    B     S DAKOTA    A    B
NEBRASKA    N    B     KANSAS      B    B     OKLAHOMA    B    B
N TEXAS     B    N     S TEXAS     B    N     W TEXAS     B    N
MINNESOTA   B    B     IOWA        B    B     MISSOURI    B    B
ARKANSAS    B    B     LOUISIANA   B    N     WISCONSIN   B    N
ILLINOIS    B    B     MISSISSIPPI B    N     MICHIGAN    B    A
INDIANA     B    N     OHIO        B    A     KENTUCKY    B    B
TENNESSEE   B    N     ALABAMA     B    A     NEW YORK    B    A
VERMONT     B    A     NEW HAMP    B    A     MAINE       B    A
MASS        N    A     CONN        N    A     RHODE IS    N    A
PENN        B    A     NEW JERSEY  N    A     W VIRGINIA  B    A
MARYLAND    N    A     DELAWARE    N    A     VIRGINIA    B    A
N CAROLINA  A    A     S CAROLINA  N    A     GEORGIA     N    A
FL PNHDL    N    A     FL PENIN    A    A     AK N SLOPE  A    B
AK ALEUTIAN A    A     AK WESTERN  A    A     AK INT BSN  A    N
AK S INT    A    A     AK SO COAST A    A     AK PNHDL    A    A



8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR JUN 07 - 13 2016

STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON  A    A     OREGON      A    A     NRN CALIF   A    A
SRN CALIF   A    N     IDAHO       A    A     NEVADA      A    A
W MONTANA   A    A     E MONTANA   A    N     WYOMING     A    N
UTAH        A    N     ARIZONA     A    N     COLORADO    A    B
NEW MEXICO  A    B     N DAKOTA    N    B     S DAKOTA    B    B
NEBRASKA    B    B     KANSAS      B    B     OKLAHOMA    B    B
N TEXAS     B    B     S TEXAS     N    B     W TEXAS     N    B
MINNESOTA   B    B     IOWA        B    B     MISSOURI    B    B
ARKANSAS    B    B     LOUISIANA   N    B     WISCONSIN   B    B
ILLINOIS    B    B     MISSISSIPPI B    B     MICHIGAN    B    N
INDIANA     B    N     OHIO        B    N     KENTUCKY    B    N
TENNESSEE   B    B     ALABAMA     N    B     NEW YORK    B    A
VERMONT     B    A     NEW HAMP    B    A     MAINE       B    A
MASS        B    A     CONN        B    A     RHODE IS    N    A
PENN        B    A     NEW JERSEY  B    N     W VIRGINIA  B    N
MARYLAND    B    N     DELAWARE    B    N     VIRGINIA    B    N
N CAROLINA  N    N     S CAROLINA  N    B     GEORGIA     A    B
FL PNHDL    A    N     FL PENIN    A    A     AK N SLOPE  A    B
AK ALEUTIAN A    A     AK WESTERN  A    A     AK INT BSN  A    N
AK S INT    A    A     AK SO COAST A    A     AK PNHDL    A    A

                           LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL     PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE   N  - NEAR NORMAL     A - ABOVE   N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW                        B - BELOW

THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.

$$




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