Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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000
FXUS01 KWBC 280754
PMDSPD

SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
353 AM EDT FRI JUL 28 2017

VALID 12Z FRI JUL 28 2017 - 12Z SUN JUL 30 2017

...HEAVY RAIN FOR PARTS OF THE EAST COAST THROUGH SATURDAY,
FOLLOWED BY COOLER CONDITIONS OVER THE WEEKEND...

THE STAGE IS SET FOR A STORM SYSTEM MORE TYPICAL OF AUTUMN TO FORM
OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.  THIS SYSTEM IS
CURRENTLY AT ITS FORMATIVE STAGE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AS A
COUPLE OF LOW PRESSURE WAVES RIDE ALONG A COLD FRONT.  AS THE
COOLER AIR MASS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO FILTER INTO THE
NORTHERN U.S., AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO FORM OVER THE
GREAT LAKES AND INTERACT WITH THE LOW PRESSURE WAVES ALONG THE
COLD FRONT.  THIS WILL LEAD TO THE INTENSIFICATION OF A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION LATE FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY, WITH SOME SIMILARITIES TO A COOL SEASON NOR`EASTER.
RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BECOME HEAVY FRIDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH GUSTY
WINDS, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST.  THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR 2 TO
5 INCHES OF RAIN TO FALL FROM THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS EASTWARD TO
THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH SATURDAY, WITH SOME FLASH
FLOODING POSSIBLE IN AREAS THAT RECEIVE REPEATED ROUNDS OF
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.  IN THE WAKE OF THE STORM, TEMPERATURES
WILL LIKELY BE COOLER THAN AVERAGE FOR A FEW DAYS.

PARTS OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST, FOUR CORNERS, CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
ROCKIES AND INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WILL ALSO HAVE SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS MONSOONAL MOISTURE INTERACTS WITH A
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS.  IT APPEARS
THAT EASTERN COLORADO AND NORTHERN NEW MEXICO WILL GET THE
GREATEST RAINFALL TOTALS, WITH A FEW INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING
POSSIBLE.  ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES, MUCH OF THE INITIAL
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD CONGREGATE ACROSS THE LOCAL MOUNTAIN
RANGES BEFORE MIGRATING TOWARD THE VALLEY FLOORS AND THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS.

HAMRICK/KONG


GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP
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