Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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FXUS01 KWBC 200838
PMDSPD

SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
438 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

VALID 12Z SUN APR 20 2014 - 12Z TUE APR 22 2014

...HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE COASTAL CAROLINAS WILL FINALLY WIND
DOWN...

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS WEST AND CENTRAL
TEXAS THROUGH LATE MONDAY...


THE CONFIGURATION OF THE UPPER JET WILL CONTINUE TO BE SPLIT IN
NATURE WHICH WILL FEATURE AN ACTIVE SOUTHERN AND NORTHERN STREAM.
SUCH A SETUP IS FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE
A MUCH HIGHER AMPLITUDE PATTERN EVOLVES THEREAFTER. THE CURRENT
STATE OF THE ATMOSPHERE CONSISTS OF A STRONG CLOSED LOW ALONG THE
CAROLINA COAST WHICH HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR A MULTI-DAY HEAVY
RAINFALL EVENT. WITH THE BEST MOISTURE CONTENT NOW OVER THE
OFFSHORE WATERS, THE EVENT HAS FINALLY BEGUN TO WIND DOWN WITH
SCATTERED ACTIVITY EXPECTED ALONG THE COASTAL CAROLINAS ON EASTER
SUNDAY.

ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WITHIN THE ACTIVE SOUTHERN STREAM HAS HELPED
FOSTER THE GROWTH OF NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. SOME OF THE MORE
ORGANIZED CONVECTION SHOULD SPAWN ALONG A NORTH TO SOUTH ORIENTED
TROF EXTENDING THROUGH WEST/CENTRAL TEXAS. GIVEN SUFFICIENT
DAYTIME HEATING ACROSS THE LONE STAR STATE, THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD
BE RATHER UNSTABLE WHICH MAY LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER OUTLOOK SUGGESTS
THIS IS THE CASE WITH SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY IN THE
VICINITY OF LUBBOCK AND MIDLAND, TEXAS WITH THE THREAT MOVING INTO
CENTRAL TEXAS BY THE FOLLOWING DAY.

THE NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE UPPER JET WILL ALSO BE A KEY
CONTRIBUTOR TO THE WEATHER DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AN
UPPER TROF CURRENTLY SKIRTING THE UPPER INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WILL
CONTINUE SLIDING EASTWARD WITH MINIMAL CHANGE IN INTENSITY
EXPECTED. WHILE THE WINTRY PRECIPITATION WILL BE LOCKED TO
LOCATIONS NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER WITH CANADA, THE
SYSTEM SHOULD BE AN ACTIVE RAIN PRODUCER. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE
COUNTRY. ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY IS FORECAST TO SLIDE EASTWARD
REACHING THE OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS BY LATE MONDAY TO EARLY
TUESDAY.

THE UPPER PATTERN WILL BECOME MUCH MORE AMPLIFIED BY THE TIME
MONDAY EVENING ARRIVES WITH A DEEP UPPER TROF JUST OFFSHORE OF THE
WEST COAST. ONSHORE FLOW COMBINED WITH FRONTAL AND OROGRAPHIC LIFT
WILL HELP SPREAD WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION FROM NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
UP INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING, THE WPC
WINTER WEATHER DESK IS ADVERTISING AROUND 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW
ACROSS THE OREGON CASCADES.

WITH REGARD TO TEMPERATURES, IT SHOULD BE RATHER MILD ACROSS THE
MIDDLE OF THE U.S. PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW PUSHING INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST WILL RAISE THE MERCURY WELL INTO THE
70S ON SUNDAY. A DROP IN THE TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK ONCE THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH BUT READINGS SHOULD
STILL HOLD STEADY IN THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S.


RUBIN-OSTER


GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV
$$





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