Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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FXUS01 KWBC 231957
PMDSPD

SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
357 PM EDT MON MAY 23 2016

VALID 00Z TUE MAY 24 2016 - 00Z THU MAY 26 2016

...THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER AND FLASH FLOODING WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE PLAINS AND THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...


...UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGHOUT THE WESTERN U.S...


A LARGE, SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE WESTERN U.S. WILL
CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE WEATHER THROUGHOUT THE WESTERN AND
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  LOOKING
TOWARD THE WESTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY, THE AXIS OF THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OVER THE GREAT
BASIN AND WEST COAST THROUGH TODAY AND TUESDAY.  THIS WILL BRING
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY IN THE GREAT BASIN WHERE
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THIS
REGION.  HEAVIER RAINFALL AMOUNTS CAN BE EXPECTED ON THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.  PRECIPITATION WILL RAMP UP ON WEDNESDAY THROUGHOUT THE
GREAT BASIN AS THE BASE OF THE LOW MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA AND TOWARD THE FOUR CORNERS.

THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL ALSO BE THE DRIVING FORCE
OVER THE CONVECTION ACROSS THE PLAINS AND THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.  AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SLOWLY
PROGRESSES EASTWARD, STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CARRY COPIOUS
AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO OVER THE PLAINS.  IN
ADDITION, THERE IS ALSO PLENTY OF INSTABILITY ON TAP.  THESE TWO
INGREDIENTS, ALONG WITH A VERY SLOW PROGRESSING SURFACE FRONT,
WILL CONTINUE TO SET OFF THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY AND
INTO TUESDAY.  TO THE NORTH, THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL OUT BY LATE
MONDAY AND TUESDAY ALONG THE NORTH AND CENTRAL PLAINS.  THIS WILL
ACT AS THE FOCAL POINT FOR IGNITING CONVECTION AND WILL BRING
THREATS OF BOTH SEVERE WEATHER AND FLASH FLOODING ON TUESDAY,
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
  FARTHER SOUTH, MOST OF THE CONVECTION WILL BE INFLUENCED BY THE
FORCING FROM THE DRYLINE IN ADDITION TO DIURNAL HEATING.  THAT
PARTICULAR ROUND OF ACTIVITY WILL ALSO HAVE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER. HOWEVER, ISOLATED POCKETS OF HEAVY RAIN LEADING TO FLASH
FLOODING IS ALSO NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

BY WEDNESDAY, THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIFTS TO THE NORTH
ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WEST TEXAS CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED
ONCE AGAIN ALONG THE DRYLINE.

FARTHER EAST IN THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST, A SURFACE LOW
TRACKING NORTH ALONG THE NORTHEAST COAST ON MONDAY WILL CONTINUE
TO BRING PRECIPITATION ACROSS THESE REGIONS.  ON MONDAY NIGHT AND
INTO TUESDAY MORNING, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST.  AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES TOWARD
NEW ENGLAND, THE PRECIPITATION ACTIVITY SHIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST AND NEW ENGLAND, WITH MOST SHOWERS TAPERING OFF IN THE
MID-ATLANTIC.  BY WEDNESDAY, DRY CONDITIONS SETTLE ACROSS THESE
REGIONS ALONG WITH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.

FANNING


GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV
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