Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
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FOUS30 KWBC 270034
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
834 PM EDT THU MAY 26 2016

...VALID 01Z FRI MAY 27 2016 - 12Z FRI MAY 27 2016...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
35 SW SGF 30 ESE CFV 30 NW BVO 10 NW AAO 35 WNW EMP 15 N DMO
30 W SUS 20 SW CPS SAR 10 ESE CIR 35 NE DYR 20 NNE MKL
30 SSW MKL M97 35 SSE M19 BVX FLP 35 SW SGF.

SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
40 ESE COT 20 NW HDO 15 N T82 15 WNW LHB 40 S LFK 10 S LCH
20 NNW KCRH 35 N KEMK 25 ESE KBQX 40 ESE COT.

MODERATE RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
30 SE HYI 20 S 11R 10 S IAH 15 WSW LVJ 20 WSW 5R5 40 W VCT
30 SE HYI.



...CNTL/SRN TEXAS...

A SLIGHT to MODERATE RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FLASH FLOOD
GUIDANCE EXISTS FOR SOUTHEAST TX.
IMPRESSIVE HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT HAS PRODUCED 6-11 INCHES WITH THE
HIGHEST AMOUNTS REPORTED AT STATION 11R/BRENHAM MUNICIPAL AIRPORT
TX.  HIGH AVAILABLE MOISTURE IS STILL IN PLACE WITH MAXIMUM PW OF
2.25" PER THE LATEST GPS OBSERVATIONS...AS WELL AS MID 70S SURFACE
DEWPOINTS.  RAP ANALYSES ON THE SPC HOME PAGE SHOW MIXED LAYER
CAPES OF 4-5000 J/KG TO TE SOUTHWEST ALONG WITH SFC
FRONTOGENESIS...WHICH PROVIDES A CONTINUING LIFTING MECHANISM.
THE HIGH RES RAPID REFRESH EXPERIMENTAL RUNS OVER THE LAST SEVERAL
HOURS DEPICT ANOTHER 6-8 INCHES WITH THE BAND THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT.

E BUT THERE SUFFICIENT SUPPORT FROM BOTH THE WRF ARW AND NAM
CONEST AS WELL AS SEVERAL GLOBAL RUNS TO SUGGEST EXPECTED RAINS
FROM SOME OF THE STGR TSTMS COULD EXCEED FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE
VALUES IN SPOTS.

...EASTERN KS/MO/NORTHERN AR/WESTERN TN...

ONGOING COMPLEX OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH
OF NORTHEASTERN KS AND NORTHERN MO...WITH MULTIPLE CELLS PRODUCING
3-4 INCHES OF RAIN...INCLUDING IN KANSAS CITY. LATEST SPC
MESOSCALE ANALYSIS SHOWS COUPLET OF STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE WITH
BNDRY LAYER MOISTURE CONVERGENCE...SO STORMS CONTINUE TO GENERATE
AS THERE IS STILL AN AREA OF MIXED LAYER CAPES OF 2-3000 J/KG
AVAILABLE IN SOUTHEAST KS TO SOUTHERN KS TO UTILIZE.

STG FORCING COUPLED WITH HIGH PWS AND PSBL TRAINING COULD LEAD TO
WIDESPREAD 2 TO 3 INCH RAINS ACRS ERN KS/WRN MO WITH ISOLD HEAVIER
AMOUNTS NEAR 5 INCHES.  THE GREATEST THREAT FOR FLASH FLOOD AT
THIS TIME APPEARS TO BE FROM SOUTHEAST KS INTO SOUTH CENTRAL MO
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND THEN DIMINISH AFTER CONVECTION HAS
TAPPED THE INSTABILITY AND THE CAPE GETS REDUCED AND CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION DEVELOPS.

A SECONDARY AREA OF SHOWERS/STORMS MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS
NORTHEAST AR INTO WESTERN TN AND SOUTHEAST MO SHOULD GRADUALLY
DECLINE AS THE AVAILABLE INSTABILITY WANES THIS EVENING. LATEST
FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS 2-3 INCHES IN 6 HOURS SO ONLY ISOLATED
AREAS SHOULD EXCEED GUIDANCE IN THIS AREA.

PETERSEN
$$





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