Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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603
FXUS04 KWBC 061841
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
141 PM EST SAT FEB 06 2016


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID FEB 07/0000 UTC THRU FEB 08/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1

SOUTHEAST

THE AMPLIFYING SOUTHERN STREAM TROF MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GULF COAST WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN INTO A CLOSED LOW ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST GULF/SOUTHEAST U.S. OVERNIGHT...HELPING TO SUPPORT A
VERY FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR THE  DEEPENING OF A SURFACE LOW OFF THE
EAST CENTRAL TO NORTHEAST FLORIDA COAST.  THIS LOW WILL CONTINUE
TO DEEPEN AS IT PUSHES SLOWLY NORTHWARD OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.  DIFFERENCES CONTINUE WITH THE PATH OF THIS
LOW...WITH THE NAM AGAIN A WESTERN OUTLIER...THE EC AND UKMET
FARTHEST EAST AND THE GFS IN BETWEEN.  GIVEN LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
THE NAM..ITS SOLUTION WAS NOT FAVORED.   THERE ARE SUBSEQUENT
SIGNIFICANT PRECIP DIFFERENCES OVER THE SOUTHEAST WITH THE
RESULTANT QPF ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THIS STORM.  IN ADDITION
THERE ARE TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH HOW QUICKLY PRECIP PUSHES
NORTHWARD INTO EASTERN NC.  RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE WITH THE OVERALL
DETAILS GIVEN THESE DIFFERENCES...EVEN AWAY FROM THE WESTERN
OUTLIER NAM SOLUTION.  DAY 1 QPF TRENDED TOWARD THE GEFS MEAN AND
IN HOUSE PSEUDO BIAS CORRECTED MEAN TO MITIGATE THE DIFFERENCES.
MODERATE TO HEAVY TOTALS LIKELY FROM NORTHEAST SC INTO SOUTHEAST
TO EASTERN NC.

CENTRAL TO SOUTH FLORIDA

BLENDED TPW IMAGERY IS SHOWING THE BEGINNING OF A NORTHEAST SURGE
OF HIGHER PW AIR INTO CENTRAL TO SOUTH FLORIDA AHEAD OF THE
AMPLIFYING GULF UPPER TROF AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW STRENGTHENS OUT
OF THE SOUTH SOUTHWEST.  THIS WILL SUPPORT MODERATE TO HEAVY
PRECIP TOTALS EARLY DAY 1 ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING FRONT
MOVING SOUTHWARD OVER CENTRAL TO SOUTH FLORIDA IN A REGION OF
STRONG UPPER DIFFLUENCE.

EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE  UPPER MS VALLEY
AND UPPER LAKES

THE HEIGHT FALLS THAT HAVE BEEN RACING EASTWARD FROM THE NORTHWEST
U.S. INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL BEGIN TO SLOW AS LARGE SCALE
AMPLIFICATION OCCURS FROM ALONG THE WEST COAST...EASTWARD INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MS VALLEY REGION.  THE AXIS OF THE HEAVIEST
PRECIP/SNOWFALL TOTALS EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS SOUTHEAST MB INTO
SOUTHWEST ONTARIO...WITH THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THIS AXIS
AFFECTING NORTHEAST ND INTO  NORTHERN MN...FAR NW WI AND PORTIONS
OF THE U.P. OF MI THIS PERIOD WITH MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY
SNOWFALL TOTALS.  SEE THE LATEST QPFHSD FOR ADDITIONAL WINTER
WEATHER INFORMATION.


ORAVEC

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 08/00Z
 0.01 554012 552996 553989 553985 552982 542957 538946 533935
      521906 516894 514888 513883 514879 514862 512854 511845
      510823 506808 500794 494784 492777 489773 486768 481764
      479762 478758 479755 484745 489734 493720 497705 498701
      497696 498691 501690 505686 508682 511676 510667 508662
      506654 504645 501640 495629 492625 490623 489626 482636
      473647 470651 467656 462668 459679 458685 455692 453700
      450706 449712 449717 448720 445733 444742 448744 451738
      451734 453737 454745 454750 454754 453762 450767 448773
      448780 447786 446795 444801 440806 432818 429821 425827
      420836 414847 409855 406859 407867 411870 414870 416868
      420871 421872 424872 428864 428861 431859 436854 441851
      446848 449850 450852 452861 452871 446899 446903 444907
      441912 438918 436924 435932 434941 433948 433957 433966
      435973 436978 440985 441988 446992 451993 457993 459991
      462992 465993 466996 468003 471009 472012 473018 475025
      477032 481034 499040 503052 505056 506058 510058 513060
      518056 524052 527044 531037 533037 535033 539027 546028
      549023 552017 554012
 0.01 535217 537199 535191 532186 523178 520173 517172 516169
      512168 511165 505163 503163 502167 503176 507190 512202
      517214 524224 529226 533222 535217
 0.01 516264 517259 516256 514252 514248 512239 510232 507225
      504220 499214 494210 482208 479208 477210 475213 474219
      480222 484223 486225 488228 489232 487235 484236 479232
      472231 470233 468238 468241 469245 469248 471251 474253
      476257 466267 463272 463280 461283 460288 458299 457304
      459307 462312 469315 473316 476315 486311 496303 500299
      504295 508287 511278 514271 516264
 0.01 476159 474152 471147 466143 464137 462131 458133 458138
      459140 460148 462154 466159 468161 471161 476159
 0.01 462111 463104 463099 459086 448070 441067 437068 434071
      433074 436078 440079 445082 451088 457096 458100 456102
      454098 451095 446095 436095 429094 430099 430104 427107
      428108 430110 431114 433114 439113 443116 448124 453117
      462111
 0.01 446046 445043 445041 443038 441038 440040 439040 440040
      441043 443045 443046 444046 446046 446046
 0.01 440060 441055 439052 437052 436047 434045 432043 430044
      431048 432051 432052 432054 433057 435059 437062 438062
      440060
 0.01 437047 436045 434042 433042 434044 434045 436047 437049
      437047
 0.01 415076 415073 413070 412068 414066 415066 416062 414061
      412063 409063 407064 404065 401067 405070 406070 408075
      410075 413076 415076
 0.01 399693 398683 396674 394668 390664 386661 379663 372666
      366671 361674 354676 344683 323699 314707 305714 281727
      272734 268738 264742 257751 251761 248766 246772 248774
      245776 241779 237783 234788 226798 219808 218813 218818
      219822 221823 226823 234823 238828 263823 278822 294820
      309818 316818 324818 328818 334815 344807 350804 353799
      356795 359788 363776 369763 376753 382743 389732 394720
      395712 397707 399693
 0.01 297924 297918 295914 291908 288898 287892 286887 285875
      285869 283865 282860 280856 272852 269851 265851 261854
      258858 255864 251873 248881 245889 245895 247899 252905
      256913 259915 262917 279923 296926 297924
 0.25 508269 509265 509261 509254 507250 506251 502255 498255
      496252 491248 489249 490257 489265 486269 482273 479279
      477288 477297 477302 478303 484303 492297 496293 498287
      501279 505274 508269
 0.25 519960 519953 519946 517937 514926 511916 505898 498881
      492861 485841 481834 475831 472830 469831 465841 465848
      467854 469864 472888 472894 472900 470911 471920 474931
      479938 482944 484948 485951 484953 477948 474947 470946
      465952 465957 466962 472967 476969 478973 480976 481981
      485988 492992 496994 500993 504986 503975 502972 503968
      507966 512966 515965 519960
 0.25 382713 382705 379702 372697 368696 362696 350696 342702
      336708 321723 315729 312732 306735 297738 292740 287743
      284747 281751 278760 274768 265774 251786 245793 244796
      246800 243809 242813 242817 244821 249820 260816 278808
      298800 303798 310798 318800 326804 331805 338804 345798
      351791 356782 359772 363761 366753 371743 376733 379723
      382713
 0.50 494282 495280 495278 495277 494274 492274 491274 490274
      488275 486277 485279 485281 484284 485286 486287 488287
      490286 492285 492284 494282 494282
 0.50 505939 502929 498919 494910 490899 488887 486886 486894
      485900 484905 482909 482917 486924 491932 494936 497939
      500940 503941 505939
 0.50 374719 373715 369712 363708 355706 351705 345707 338712
      332717 320731 313736 306741 299746 292752 288760 283765
      277770 269776 263781 259788 254795 250802 247806 246811
      247816 251817 257813 265808 274803 282801 301795 306794
      312794 318796 326800 329801 336801 343796 349790 353782
      356772 361755 367736 371727 374719
 1.00 357745 357736 356728 353722 348720 341720 336723 327731
      310747 293762 290766 287771 285776 281782 274788 272791
      274792 280792 292790 306789 313789 318791 328795 334796
      338794 344790 347785 349780 351774 353760 357745
 1.50 353751 353745 351740 349736 347732 344730 340730 332735
      321745 309754 303759 298766 295774 295778 297781 304784
      313785 326790 334791 338791 342788 346782 348774 352755
      353751
 2.00 350753 348746 344741 340739 337739 333741 328744 325747
      316755 311758 308763 307769 304776 308780 314782 324786
      331787 336787 341784 345779 347767 350753
 3.00 345757 344752 341750 333752 326755 321760 319767 319774
      321778 325779 332780 336779 339777 342770 344761 345757
 4.00 338769 339764 338760 335759 332759 328761 327763 326766
      327770 329772 331774 333774 336773 338771 338769

$$





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