Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 030953
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
453 AM EST TUE MAR 03 2015


FINAL DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID MAR 03/1200 UTC THRU MAR 06/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1

06Z UPDATE...
SPED UP LEADING EDGE OF WAA PCPN ACRS THE EAST GIVEN BOTH MODEL
AND RADAR TRENDS.


GT LAKES/NE SWWD ACRS THE OH/MID MS AND TN VALLEYS...

STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL WAA PATRN SETTING UP IN ADVANCE OF POS
TILTED UPR TROF EJECTING SLOWLY TOWARD THE UPR MIDWEST THROUGH THE
SRN ROCKIES WILL LEAD TO POTNL HEAVY TO EXCESSIVE RAIN ACRS PARTS
OF THE OH/MID MS AND TN VALLEYS WITH WINTRY MIX LIKELY FARTHER
NORTH INTO NEW ENGLAND.  MODELS SHOW REASONABLE GOOD AGREEMENT
SHOWING INITIAL SFC LOW MOVING ACRS THE UPR MIDWEST EARLY TUES IN
RESPONSE TO WEAKENING S/WV EJECTING OUT AHEAD OF A MORE AMPLIFIED
UPR TROF DVLPG SWD ACRS THE NRN PLAINS TUES/TUES NIGHT.  THIS LEAD
SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH RAPIDLY NEWD WITH A BAND OF WAA PCPN
SPREADING RAPIDLY ACRS THE GT LAKES INTO THE NE AS ASSOCD WARM
FRONT LIFTS NWD THRU THE MID ATLC REGION TOWARD SRN NEW ENGLAND.
TRAILING PORTION OF ASSOCD COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SLOW THROUGH
SRN OH VALLEY AS MAIN HEIGHT FALLS LIFT INTO CANADA LEADING WHICH
WILL ALLOW DEEP LAYERED SLWLY FLOW WITH PWS OF UP TO 1.5 INCHES TO
FOCUS ALONG THE BNDRY TUES NIGHT.  THE HIGH PWS ALONG WITH 85H
WINDS INCREASING TO NEAR 50 KTS WILL PROVIDE STRONG MSTR FLUX
ALONG NEARLY STATIONARY COLD FRONT...AND LIKELY LEADING TO SOME
HEAVY RAINS FROM PARTS OF AR NEWD INTO THE CNTL APLCNS.  WHILE
INSTABILITY IS SOMEWHAT LACKING..THE DEEP LAYERED SWLY FLOW WILL
LEAD TO POTENTIAL TRAINING/REPEAT CELL ACTIVITY.  HAVE SHIFTED
AXIS OF HEAVIER RAINS SLIGHTLY N OF NDFD AMOUNTS GIVEN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT ON AXIS OF HEAVIER RAINS.  RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2
PLUS INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED HERE.  ACRS NEW ENGLAND...THE NAM
SEEMED A TAD ON THE HIGH END OF AMOUNTS SO DID NOT STRAY TOO FAR
FROM CONTINUITY WHICH INDICATED .25 TO .50 INCH AREA AVG AMOUNTS.


GT BASIN EWD INTO THE CNTL/SRN ROCKIES...

WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MDT SNOWS EXPECTED ACRS THIS REGION IN
RESPONSE TO ENERGY DROPPING SEWD FROM THE NRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION
AS WELL AS INCREASING UPSLOPE FLOW AS HIGH PRES BUILDS SWD FROM
THE NRN PLAINS.  THE NAM SHOWED A LITTLE MORE OF THE S/WV ENERGY
ACRS SRN CA GETTING PULLED NEWD AHEAD OF HEIGHT FALLS DROPPING SWD
FROM THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION..BUT IT SEEMED TO BE ON ITS OWN
THERE AND THUS PERHAPS A BIT OVERDONE WITH .10 INCH PLUS AMOUNTS
OVER WRN KS..BUT OTHERWISE...MODELS GENLY SUPPORT SOME MDT QPF
AMOUNTS ACRS THE MTNS OF CNTL/WRN CO WITH SOMEWHAT LIGHTER AMOUNTS
ACRS THE WASATCH.


DAYS 2/3...

...SOUTHERN PLAINS/LOWER MS VALLEY TO THE OHIO
VALLEY/MID-ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST...

AMPLIFIED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A FULL-LATITUDE TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE TO CHANNEL AMPLE MOISTURE FOR WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO
HEAVY PRECIPITATION TO FALL ALONG A SLOW MOVING BAROCLINIC ZONE
EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHEAST BACK INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON DAY
2.  SHORTWAVE ENERGY DROPPING DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH
THROUGH THE ROCKIES IS EXPECTED TO PHASE WITH THE REMNANT ENERGY
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LOW EJECTING OUT OF SOUTHERN CA THROUGH
NORTHERN MEX/THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S....SPURRING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
LOW-AMPLITUDE WAVE ALONG THE FRONT THAT IS FORECAST TO LIFT FROM
THE LOWER MS VALLEY WED EVENING...REACHING SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC
STATES BY EARLY THU.   MOISTURE THROWN BACK INTO DEEPENING COLD
AIR NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN A LATE SEASON
WINTER STORM FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/LOWER MS
VALLEY...NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE TN/OH VALLEYS INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC.  REFER TO THE WPC WINTER WEATHER PRODUCTS FOR DETAILS
CONCERNING EXPECTED SNOW/ICE AMOUNTS.  THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS
FORECAST TO MOVE FROM THE OH VALLEY THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC ON
THU...WITH PRECIPITATION ENDING ACROSS MOST AREAS BY THU EVENING.
AS NOTED IN THE PMDHMD...SIGNIFICANT MODEL DIFFERENCES REMAIN WITH
RESPECT TO THE TIMING OF THE FRONT...TRANSLATING INTO DISPARITIES
IN AXES OF HEAVIER QPF.  WPC AMOUNTS GAVE SIGNIFICANT WEIGHT TO
THE GFS AND ECMWF...WITH SOME CREDENCE GIVEN TO THE SLOWER UKMET
AS WELL.  HOWEVER...GENERALLY DISCOUNTED THE NAM WHICH A SLOWER
OUTLIER IN COMPARISON TO THE REMAINING 00Z DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE
AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE FROM THE GFS AND ECMWF.

SULLIVAN/PEREIRA

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 04/12Z
 0.01 442630 451629 460629 468628 473628 477630 483633 489639
      495645 501650 507658 513664 518670 522675 536716 538743
      539757 538762 538768 537779 536784 533787 523794 517801
      516803 517805 519810 521815 521822 520835 518850 518859
      520862 522863 525867 529870 535875 540880 542888 548907
      552917 552922 550925 547933 544939 542942 540947 537949
      532949 511950 504955 495959 491960 487962 481967 469975
      457986 454993 451000 449004 448009 448015 446019 447023
      447030 451040 457062 458069 459075 459082 459088 458101
      454110 448114 444114 441115 438117 435121 432131 431136
      429140 425148 424153 422155 421158 418161 416158 410157
      405157 404160 404164 404170 402174 399178 396182 391177
      390166 390160 389155 392151 394149 400145 407142 411142
      414139 413134 410132 403133 398134 395136 390139 387139
      385137 380139 377144 374146 369144 368140 364135 356131
      353128 350124 343118 337113 337104 338101 341100 344099
      346101 348103 352110 357116 360118 364118 371115 374114
      376111 378107 379103 371103 367104 363103 358096 359089
      361085 364075 364072 363071 360069 358065 361062 360056
      363053 366052 369048 365043 361037 355033 349028 345022
      340019 334021 323032 322040 321045 320050 317053 316056
      317060 321056 324054 331055 335057 335060 326064 321067
      317074 316080 317085 318089 320091 322100 323104 323110
      322119 323123 322128 319130 314131 311131 309133 310138
      311143 314147 316151 319155 325161 331164 333167 332169
      328171 326173 329176 333182 337188 337194 335199 333202
      328201 322197 316191 309181 305175 302168 301161 294161
      290162 281166 272168 266163 266158 268153 268147 273139
      280136 283135 285133 283131 278125 276117 274112 267112
      261112 256108 254105 250105 246107 243106 239098 242093
      245089 242086 240082 242079 249072 257065 263063 271063
 0.01 271063 278064 284063 288060 290057 289054 287047 286039
      286032 288028 290027 301022 306021 311017 312014 309011
      304008 298004 295000 292994 288989 283987 278986 253976
      255971 259967 266960 281939 308898 313895 316890 320880
      326868 327863 326861 327857 327853 328839 331826 332820
      335813 338806 343801 351779 351775 350770 343768 343761
      345757 348756 352751 355746 360737 363730 366724 371711
      376699 377694 378686 382673 384665 388658 394650 405642
 0.01 424025 425017 423011 420994 420988 419982 417966 414954
      412948 409942 405932 400927 397927 394925 391925 389927
      386929 379938 376951 375960 374967 373975 372980 371984
      373988 377992 381996 383999 388003 390006 394007 399996
      403993 406993 410991 413991 415996 417013 418017 418024
      418028 421027 424025
 0.25 483842 476792 475785 475778 475770 474764 471758 470753
      471749 470742 469736 468730 467723 463713 465704 468701
      469696 469692 468687 465680 459670 454662 448655 442648
      439646 433648 417657 407663 400669 395680 392690 387709
      385718 385728 385736 386740 390752 397761 398766 398772
      394781 389788 379800 372808 366816 359823 349828 345835
      343838 343844 346852 349855 350859 350867 349875 346886
      345890 345897 346903 346908 343918 340928 337936 335945
      332956 331964 332969 333975 337976 341973 345969 356956
      363940 367932 372923 383903 399871 404862 407861 411864
      425881 430886 434888 439888 449887 456885 460881 463877
      464872 466868 468867 476862 479862 481857 483842
 0.25 412071 409061 409056 406052 399048 395048 395053 395057
      391060 385065 380071 379076 381081 385083 389084 393083
      396080 403074 406073 410072 412071
 0.25 399115 399113 398112 397113 396113 394112 392113 390114
      389116 388117 387118 388119 390119 390118 392118 394118
      395117 396117 397116 399115
 0.25 308089 306085 303080 299076 293073 280070 267068 263069
      258073 257084 256091 256098 260102 266103 279103 290100
      300097 305094 308089
 0.25 299152 299151 297150 297149 296148 295147 294146 294145
      293144 291143 289143 287143 287144 286145 285147 287149
      288150 290150 292150 294151 295151 297152 299152 299152
 0.50 429683 427679 423680 417683 411686 406689 401695 397703
      396706 397711 400713 399716 398723 399730 405738 406750
      407757 407768 404776 396786 388794 384798 380804 376812
      374820 369833 366846 357879 349906 345922 339939 338945
      338950 340953 345954 349950 353944 357936 364925 371913
      376902 382889 390874 396862 400849 402842 405834 408827
      412819 427800 428790 427783 423773 421763 421745 418739
      414736 411732 412730 415724 420707 424695 429683
 0.50 303089 302084 298080 294077 289075 278071 269071 264072
      261076 261088 261094 264099 274100 285098 294095 298093
      302090 303089
 1.00 414790 414787 412784 408783 405784 392794 387799 385804
      385809 387813 385825 378835 372851 367865 361882 357896
      353914 350922 349930 352930 353927 357919 366908 369902
      374893 387866 392852 396835 401820 408803 414790
 1.00 296088 296085 294083 288079 284076 278074 271074 268074
      267078 266087 269092 274094 282095 287093 291092 296088
 1.50 396800 397798 395796 393797 392798 391799 390800 390801
      390803 390804 392805 394804 395803 395802 396800
 1.50 387849 387841 384839 382841 378845 375850 371863 367876
      363887 362895 360901 362905 362902 365902 369896 374886
      379875 381869 383861 387849
 1.50 289087 289083 286081 285080 281079 279078 276076 272077
      271079 271083 271087 273088 277090 280090 284089 286089
      289087
 2.00 379868 379866 378864 377865 375866 374869 373870 373871
      372873 372875 373878 374879 374878 375876 375875 376873
      377872 377871 378869 379868

24HR QP VT 05/12Z
 0.01 479617 487622 491625 493634 497646 498653 497659 493679
      492685 490690 484697 474711 472714 466716 461716 458721
      451728 443733 443724 445717 447711 450706 459699 467693
      469689 471684 470677 466676 462676 459674 446661 442660
      440664 439675 435695 431719 430730 429735 430740 434742
      438746 439750 437756 436761 433766 431778 428788 422794
      413811 411819 409830 404852 402863 401868 400875 398885
      396897 395902 394911 394919 393926 392931 391936 388947
      384959 382963 382967 384976 387988 389997 390001 390007
      390014 392019 393024 396026 398030 400036 399043 401049
      405053 404054 400058 398062 396065 389063 386060 384058
      381057 376056 372057 375066 380074 379079 376077 374073
      372071 369071 360069 359085 354080 350079 347083 344086
      344093 344099 346104 348108 347111 340113 337110 335108
      331110 326109 321110 309125 305125 302123 297117 291109
      285103 274092 269087 261084 252084 248085 243085 238083
      238077 241072 245069 245065 246062 248060 252058 257059
      262060 266063 274067 279070 282072 287078 291080 296078
      306076 309078 311077 313073 318069 321069 321066 320062
      314057 309054 303055 297061 297056 296051 289046 290043
      288037 286033 282028 274026 265021 252011 241997 238993
      236989 237977 243971 246969 250965 255960 261957 264954
      268952 270947 270943 272938 274931 275925 275919 278908
      279896 282888 284884 285879 289870 294862 298857 304851
      315839 317836 317832 321826 326817 329812 327807 327801
      330796 333793 337788 347774 352766 357757 358752 358749
      357748 351755 348761 345765 341766 338769 337764 337758
      338754 339749 342744 345734 347730 349725 353717 358709
      362704
 0.01 362704 365699 368696 370693 373688 374685 377680 378677
      381672 382667 383664 386659 389656 391653 394649 397646
      399643
 0.01 484867 484856 480849 477843 476832 475829 473826 471825
      467826 464827 462831 460837 455842 452843 449845 451852
      455855 461858 463866 466875 466885 465895 465898 467901
      470900 472897 475892 476888 477883 479875 484867
 0.01 325081 325078 323076 322074 320076 320078 320080 321082
      323082 325081
 0.25 425660 424652 422645 418644 413645 409647 406651 401657
      391671 382685 377694 373702 370710 368720 374741 376744
      375747 371756 367764 363773 359793 353809 351819 348827
      344836 339843 334849 327855 322861 318869 311884 302901
      299909 298913 297919 298927 299938 301946 301956 297968
      297972 297977 310987 312990 316993 321993 324991 329984
      334979 350969 360958 364952 368945 373936 376927 386886
      391866 395849 407809 412788 414769 417745 418734 419723
      421702 423682 424670 425660
 0.25 336054 336053 335051 334051 332051 331051 329052 328053
      328055 329056 330057 332058 334057 335056 336055 336054
 0.25 284005 285001 285997 284994 280993 278995 275996 273997
      270999 269003 269005 269007 271009 274010 278010 280009
      282007 284005
 0.25 267072 267070 264068 262066 260065 257063 256063 253064
      251065 250069 252071 254072 256075 258076 261076 263075
      265074 267072
 0.50 420676 419668 418661 413655 408656 404658 399665 391676
      383692 379701 376710 384715 385724 384734 383744 380752
      376761 372768 370776 368786 365805 365810 365815 361822
      355828 351835 347842 343850 340858 335864 327875 321883
      318890 312907 308912 306921 307929 309939 310944 310949
      308958 308964 310966 316971 317975 317980 317984 320985
      321984 326979 330970 355950 360944 364936 369920 380884
      386867 391851 396832 402814 405798 407788 407775 408765
      410754 411733 415716 418698 419686 420676
 1.00 404729 401728 399731 397737 394750 390762 388767 386772
      382776 379782 377787 376794 379798 381803 380806 374815
      367824 361834 357843 355850 355857 350871 346882 337904
      325924 321935 317945 317950 318954 319957 322958 334955
      339953 343950 346947 350941 355930 360918 363907 369896
      374884 378873 386849 390836 394825 400800 401791 400788
      398785 394783 392782 391778 394768 396754 402741 404733
      404729
 1.50 391812 391806 388805 384810 376821 370826 366831 364837
      363842 364847 363852 362856 359863 356869 354877 352884
      349890 342904 335915 329928 326936 326940 328941 335940
      340936 344930 348925 352920 355912 361899 367886 373872
      378859 384843 388829 391812
 2.00 379834 379832 378830 376831 375832 375834 374835 373836
      373837 372840 372841 371842 372843 372844 374845 375844
      377841 378839 378837 378836 379834
 2.00 347917 346912 344915 341917 339919 338921 336923 335926
      333928 334930 336930 338928 340926 343923 344921 346919
      347917


24HR QP VT 06/12Z
 0.01 510297 502290 498287 496282 489272 484263 482258 481251
      474243 473242 473238 474233 477234 487237 494242 494236
      492231 488227 484222 476220 470219 468214 471210 474208
      478205 482203 488204 493205 499208 502212 506221 509227
      512232 514235 513239 512247 514251 517256 523262
 0.01 429634 437645 439653 437661 438671 440679 437698 434711
      435717 436719 441724 442728 437732 431736 425741 424749
      424753 426755 428755 430758 432761 433766 435769 436776
      436781 434784 430776 423781 421787 417787 417781 418778
      419776 416774 413779 411785 408801 406806 402813 396826
      389840 381852 368871 361881 356888 353888 352886 354879
      349873 342876 340879 340882 331898 327912 326920 325926
      323933 319937 314943 309942 305939 303937 301935 299937
      296941 291945 289952 289957 290960 294967 294971 292975
      284988 279997 275001 275010 283019 283023 281024 276024
      274022 268021 264015 258019 252021 243012 241009 241003
      241992 241985 237980 233975 231971 231967 231960 232953
      233945 235941 240937 243931 246925 242918 237909 240899
      243892 248881 253871 257866 261863 269853 278845 288837
      295821 298815 293812 284805 274802 267800 259802 255803
      253805 249811 247813 245811 244808 245805 254795 284785
      293778 302769 307765 311758 315746 317732 320717 328705
      332699 338694 346685 353679 359675 364669 368664 374660
      386653 394645
 0.01 537213 539200 539194 537189 534182 530175 529172 527169
      523165 522162 513150 508146 502144 491137 488134 484132
      481130 477129 473128 471129 472138 478140 486145 488149
      490150 492153 492157 488156 484153 481150 477152 468144
      466142 462141 459143 461146 468160 469163 473164 476167
      480168 484169 487172 491178 494185 496189 499192 507194
      509198 508204 511210 516217 524220 531222 535218 537213
 0.01 535112 536106 536099 533092 529084 525078 516067 513066
      510062 506055 503049 500046 497046 493045 490046 489058
      495074 497083 501088 506094 514095 523108 527114 531114
      533113 535112
 0.01 513897 513889 513885 511882 509877 507875 504872 501867
      495860 492858 486858 480859 478858 477855 477847 475840
      472838 469840 469846 468850 466848 463851 461854 472868
      471880 468890 468898 470905 472910 475910 480902 482900
      485899 490900 498906 505908 510903 513897
 0.01 479860 477857 475858 474860 475862 477862 479860
 0.01 450826 449819 447816 445812 442808 438806 434806 435811
      435818 439820 442822 444825 448826 450826
 0.01 436864 435864 431862 429862 426860 424860 422862 421863
      421865 423867 424869 428869 431869 433869 436866 436864
 0.25 522267 516263 513261 511257 508243 501230 497224 495221
      494225 496232 499238 503245 505252 505255 502256 496256
      495254 491253 492260 498273 500277 503279 507277 511270
      516273 519275
 0.25 522186 520183 519180 516177 515176 512174 509172 508172
      505173 505175 507177 510180 511181 514183 516185 519186
      522186
 0.25 491216 490216 489213 487212 486212 484211 483212 482212
      480213 480214 481216 482217 483218 485218 487218 488219
      490219 491216
 0.25 424660 423655 420650 416646 412646 402650 395655 386661
      378668 371675 367683 364692 360702 357712 354721 351730
      348742 342759 339770 337774 334780 332789 331794 332799
      336801 342801 344802 345806 345813 346819 349821 353822
      357819 370804 382791 387785 394775 402758 409738 412728
      416719 423698 424687 425676 424660
 0.25 285939 283931 282929 279928 268933 263938 257941 250943
      243943 238947 237951 237955 237963 239969 240972 244973
      249974 255975 261976 266976 268976 270972 277962 280956
      282949 285939
 0.50 417669 417664 416658 413655 411653 404656 398660 386670
      382674 380677 379682 380686 380690 377698 373712 371719
      371729 372736 369741 362755 360761 356768 353773 350780
      351784 352788 353793 355795 360790 364782 370770 378757
      384756 390751 394745 399739 404727 410711 413696 416681
      417669

$$




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