Satellite Precipitation Estimates (TXUS20 KWBC)
Issued by NWS

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000
TXUS20 KNES 031934
SPENES
ZCZC NFDSPENES ALL
SPENES
VAZ000-NCZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-
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SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 07/03/15 1934Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-683-1404
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-EAST:1915Z  JS
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LOCATION...SW VIRGINIA/W NORTH CAROLINA/WEST VIRGINIA/S OHIO...
LOCATION...CENT TO E TENNESSEE/KENTUCKY/S INDIANA...
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ATTN WFOS...RNK...RLX...GSP...MRX...JKL...ILN...LMK...OHX...IND...
ATTN WFOS...PAH...
ATTN RFCS...MARFC...SERFC...OHRFC...LMRFC...
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NESDIS IS CONTINUING TO ACCEPT APPEALS ON THE RETIREMENT OF THE SPENES
PRODUCT.  APPEALS CAN BE SUBMITTED BY EMAILING JOHN.SIMKO@NOAA.GOV
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EVENT...UPDATE TO EARLIER SPENES MESSAGE FOR HEAVY RAIN THREAT.
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SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...SINCE LAST MESSAGE, HAVE SEEN ONE OF THE
MID/UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES ADVANCE EASTWARD INTO CENT-E KY ALONG WITH
CONTINUED UPSTREAM AMPLIFICATION OF THE TROF AXIS OVER THE S CENT US PER
WATER VAPOR ANIMATION. THE RESULT WAS AN UPTICK IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE
INITIALLY ACROSS CENT-E KY WHICH HAS SINCE SPREAD MORE TO THE PERIPHERY
WITH THE MORE ACTIVE CONVECTION NOW BEING OVER NE KY/SW WV/SE OH AND FROM
NE TN INTO SW VA AND APPROACHING FAR W NC. ADDITIONALLY, HAVE SEEN VERY
LOW TOPPED BUT EXTREMELY EFFICIENT CELLS POPPING FARTHER TO THE W ALONG
AND NEAR SFC BOUNDARY AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER CENT KY AND ON
S PERIPHERY OF PRIMARY MID/UPPER LEVEL FEATURE SEEN PIVOTING AND SHIFTING
TO THE SE IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER IL/IN. ANALYSIS ALSO DEPICTS THE
NEARBY RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF RELATIVE UPPER LEVEL SPEED MAX OVER
THE N OH VALLEY ALONG WITH POSSIBLE COUPLING FROM THE APPROACH OF MINOR
UPSTREAM SPEED MAX EMANATING ON N PORTION OF W TN WAVE. AGAIN, SATELLITE
PRESENTATION IS NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE AT ALL WITH CELLS OVER KY/S IN/S OH
THOUGH MOISTURE PROFILES ARE MORE THAN ADEQUATE TO SUPPORT LOCALIZED VERY
INTENSE RAINFALL. LIFTED PARCEL INFORMATION FROM RAP ANALYSIS INDICATES
THE PRESENCE OF ELEVATED CAPE ACROSS S IN/S OH AND PORTIONS OF KY ALONG
AND N OF SFC BOUNDARY WITH MORE SFC BASED DESTABILIZATION OCCURRING OVER
S KY WHERE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ARE ALLOWING FOR GREATER HEATING.
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OUTLOOK...FOR NEXT SEVERAL HOURS, STILL SEE SOME RATHER LOCALIZED THREAT
POSSIBLE ON PERIPHERY OF SHORTWAVE MOVING E ACROSS E KY WITH CLOUD
COVER LIMITING INSTABILITY SOMEWHAT. THE GREATER LIKELIHOOD FOR A THREAT
MATERIALIZING WOULD BE CLOSER TO WHERE THE LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY RESIDES
FROM W NC NORTHWARD INTO WV AND FAR SE OH. FARTHER TO THE W, VERY WARM
TOPPED CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE FILLING IN OVER PORTIONS OF KY/S IN/S OH
WITH THE BETTER COVERAGE AND GREATER THREAT FROM SLOW MOVING/TRAINING
ACTIVITY OCCURRING FROM W TO CENT KY WHERE A NUMBER OF SFC AND UPPER
LEVEL PARAMETERS ARE MORE FAVORABLE. WITH BETTER LLJ RESIDING FARTHER
TO THE S, NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH ORGANIZATION THOUGH WEAK CLOUD BEARING
FLOW FAVORS SLOW CELL MOTIONS. HAVE BRIEFED/COORDINATED WITH WPC MPD
FORECASTER AND AM ATTEMPTING TO STAGGER MESSAGES AS MUCH AS POSSIBLE.
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....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF NWSCHAT (NESDISSATELLITEPRECIP)....
....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET....
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FOR QUESTIONS AND COMMENTS CONCERNING THE SATELLITE
PRECIPITATION MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS PLEASE EMAIL
SSDPrecip@noaa.gov
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FOR PRECIP MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS ON THE WEB:
http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/atmosphere/spe/
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FOR AUTOMATED SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES ON THE WEB:
http://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/emb/ff/CONUS.php
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LAT...LON 3957 8209 3886 8030 3764 7993 3650 8061 3570 8266
3570 8495 3653 8744 3828 8747 3949 8557
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