Satellite Precipitation Estimates (TXUS20 KWBC)
Issued by NWS

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000
TXUS20 KNES 300704
SPENES
ZCZC NFDSPENES ALL
SPENES
VIZ000-PRZ000-
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SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 04/30/16 0703Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-683-1404
LATEST DATA USED: GOES 0630Z: JRM
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LOCATION...PUERTO RICO...U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
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ATTN WFOS...SJU...
ATTN RFCS...SERFC
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EVENT...A DEVELOPING COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS MAY IMPACT PORTIONS OF
WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN PUERTO RICO THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
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SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...RECENT SATELLITE TRENDS HAVE SHOWN
A MARKETABLE INCREASE IN CLOUD TOP COOLING (APPROACHING -70C) AND AN
OVERALL EXPANDING CLOUD SHIELD. IN ADDITION...THE GOES LIGHTNING PRODUCT
HAS SHOWN A RAPID INCREASE IN LIGHTNING ACTIVITY ALONG AND S/SW OF THE
PR COAST. THIS INCREASE IN ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE FROM AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED VORT MAX...BEST SEEN AT THE 250MB LEVEL...MOVING
ESE. THIS SHORTWAVE HAS ALLOWED FOR MODEST DIVERGENCE TO OVERSPREAD THE
AREA...WHICH HAS INCREASED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE BETWEEN HISPANIOLA AND
PR. AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES TO INCREASE...ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE
CELLS WILL FORM AND MOVE NE MATURING AND CONGEALING WITH THE POTENTIALLY
DEVELOPING MCS EAST OF HISPANIOLA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR CONTINUED  GROWTH
TO THE EAST. MEAN LEVEL WINDS ARE QUITE SLOW (10-15KTS) BUT TRACKING THE
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX IN SATELLITE...A SLIGHT EASTWARD MOVEMENT CAN BE
SEEN. THIS AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL AS THE 0138Z AMSU PASS SHOWS RAINFALL RATES APPROACHING 1.5"
PER/HR...WHICH IS IMPRESSIVE GIVEN THE COARSE RESOLUTION OF THE PRODUCT.
RAINFALL RATES IN THE MORE INTENSE CONVECTIVE CELLS COULD EXCEED 1"-2"
PER/HR.
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AN ANNOTATED SATELLITE GRAPHIC SHOWING THE HEAVY PRECIPITATION
THREAT AREA SHOULD BE AVAILABLE ON THE INTERNET ADDRESS LISTED
BELOW IN APPROXIMATELY 10-15 MINUTES.
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SHORT TERM OUTLOOK VALID 0655-1130Z...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE FACTOR
IN SHORT TERM OUTLOOK...MDT TO LOCALLY HVY RAIN IS ALREADY IMPACTING
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN PR. GIVEN THE INCREASE OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENT FLOW
AND NUMEROUS NEW CELL DEVELOPMENT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY
INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THROUGH THE MORNING. ADDITIONALLY...A
POTENTIALLY DEVELOPING MCS HAS BEEN SLOWLY PROPAGATING EASTWARD AROUND
5-15KTS. THIS APPEARS IT WILL CONTINUE WITH  NEW DEVELOPMENT ON THE
FROWARD FLANK AS UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA. THE
HEAVIEST RAIN...IF THE MCS CONTINUES TO GROW AND IMPACT PR...WOULD BE
SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA IN THE NEXT 1-2HRS. LOCALLY INTENSE HVY RAIN
RATES WILL BE POSSIBLE IF NEW CELLS CONTINUE TO MATURE AND CONGEAL INTO
THE PREEXISTING CONVECTION EAST OF HISPANIOLA. ONE LIMITING FACTOR IS
THE COMPLEX MAY SLIDE E AND THEN SE WITH TIME AS NEW CELLS DEPLETE THE
INSTABILITY POOL...PRIMARILY MISSING PR. IN THIS CASE...ONLY LOCALLY
HVY RAIN WOULD IMPACT PR UNTIL THE ATMOSPHERE STABILIZED. GIVEN
THE UNCERTAINTY...IT SEEMED A MESSAGE WAS WARRANTED TO DISCUSS THE
SYNOPTIC/MESOSCALE SITUATION. TRENDS WILL CONTINUED TO BE MONITORED
THROUGH THE MORNING.
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....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF NWSCHAT (NESDISSATELLITEPRECIP)....
....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET....
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FOR QUESTIONS AND COMMENTS CONCERNING THE SATELLITE
PRECIPITATION MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS PLEASE EMAIL
SSDPrecip@noaa.gov
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FOR PRECIP MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS ON THE WEB:
http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/atmosphere/spe/
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FOR AUTOMATED SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES ON THE WEB:
http://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/emb/ff/CONUS.php
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LAT...LON 1882 6749 1881 6504 1761 6507 1754 6755
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