Satellite Precipitation Estimates (TXUS20 KWBC)
Issued by NWS

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000
TXUS20 KNES 302331
SPENES
ZCZC NFDSPENES ALL
SPENES
NMZ000-AZZ000-UTZ000-NVZ000-
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SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 01/30/15 2330Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-683-1404
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-W: 2311ZDS
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LOCATION...SW NEW MEXICO...ARIZONA...SW UTAH...S NEVADA...
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ATTN WFOS...ABQ...EPZ...TWC...FGZ...SLC...PSR...VEF...
ATTN RFCS...WGRFC...CBRFC...CNRFC...
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EVENT...INCRSG PRECIP RATES/COVERAGE ACROSS SWRN US
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SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...WV IMAGERY SHOWS MID/UPPER LOW ROTATING
NWD FROM FAR SE CA TWDS THE SRN TIP OF NV. S/WV ENERGY ASSCD WITH THIS
VORT CAN ALSO BE SEEN SWINGING NEWD ACROSS FAR NW MX AND SW AZ BEGINNING
TO INCRS LARGE SCALE LIFT OVER THE SWRN US. EXPERIMENTAL NSSL/CIMSS
SATELLITE WIND ALGORITHM DEPICTS AN 85KT JET STREAK ROTATING NWD ACROSS
SRN/CENTRAL AZ ALONG THE ERN EDGE OF THE UPPER LVL TROF WITH STRONGLY
DIFFLUENT WIND VECTORS INDICATED ALOFT ACROSS MUCH OF THE DISCUSSION
AREA...ESPECIALLY CENTRAL AND SE AZ INTO FAR SW NM. SOME LOCALIZED
DIFFLUENT FLOW IS ALSO NOTICED CURRENTLY NR THE VORT CENTER OVER S
NV/FAR NW AZ/FAR SW UT. AT THE SFC..A LOW IS ANALYZED W OF KFLG WITH A
SFC TROF ALIGNED N AND S OVER WRN AZ...AND THE TAIL END OF AN OLD FRONT
STILL LOCATED OVER NRN MX/FAR SE AZ. STRONGER SFC CNVG IS PRESENT OVER
S CENTRAL/SE AZ BETWEEN THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC TROF AXIS AND THE STNRY
FRONT. RECENT IR SATL AND RADAR IMAGERY TRENDS HAVE SHOWN INCRSGLY HVY
PRECIP AND COOLING CLOUD TOPS ACROSS ERN PIMA AND PINAL COUNTIES OVER THE
LAST 1-2 HRS ASSCD WITH THE STRONGER SFC CNVG AND INCRSG LIFT. BLENDED
TPW PRODUCT DEPICTS TWO PLUMES OF 1" PW VALUES THAT COME TOGETHER OVER
S CENTRAL AZ...ONE CONNECTED TO THE TROPICS AND OVER SRN GULF OF CA/NW
MX...THE OTHER ALONG THE DVLPG FRONTAL BNDRY ROTATING EWD ACROSS BAJA
CALIFORNIA.
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AN ANNOTATED SATELLITE GRAPHIC SHOWING THE HEAVY PRECIPITATION
THREAT AREA SHOULD BE AVAILABLE ON THE INTERNET ADDRESS LISTED
BELOW IN APPROXIMATELY 10-15 MINUTES.
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SHORT TERM OUTLOOK VALID 2330-0230Z...MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE FACTOR
IN SHORT TERM OUTLOOK...PRECIP IS INCRSG ACROSS S CENTRAL/SE  AZ AND THIS
TREND SHOULD CONTINUE TO SPREAD NWD/NEWD AS S/WV LIFT STRENGTHENS ACROSS
THE REGION AND JET ENERGY ROTATES NWD ACROSS AZ. VWP DATA HAS SHOWN THAT
LOW LVL WINDS AT 700/850MB HAVE BOTH TURNED SSWRLY ACROSS S AZ HELPING
TO DRAW HIGHER MOISTURE VALUES NWD TWDS THE MOGOLLON RIM. WITH BEST LOW
LVL CNVG/DIFFLUENCE ALOFT  AND K-INDEX VALUES OF GREATER THAN 30 OVER
S CENTRAL TO SE AZ PER SPC MESOANALYSIS..BELIEVE CONTINUED MOD-LOCALLY
HVY RAINS WILL BE MOVING ACROSS PORTIONS OF PIMA/PINAL/COCHISE/SANTA
CRUZ/GRAHAM/GILA COUNTIES OVER THE NEXT SVRL HRS PROGRESSING TWDS FAR
SW NM. MAX RAINRATES OF 0.5"/HR ARE POSSIBLE.
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SFC WINDS ARE SERLY THEN OVER CENTRAL AZ AS LIMITED MOISTURE IS DRAWN
NW TWDS S NV. IR COOLING IS ALSO SEEN OVER NW AZ INTO FAR SE NV/SW
UT WITHIN STRONG DIFFLUENCE/LIFT ON E SIDE OF MID-LVL VORT INDICATE
POTENTIAL FOR RENEWED PRECIP IN THIS AREA AS WELL..ALBEIT MOSTLY LGT-MOD
OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS DUE TO LARGER DISTANCE FROM DEEPER MOISTURE. AS
PRECIP EXPANDS N INTO NW AND N CENTRAL AZ/S UT/S NV AND HIGHER TERRAIN
IS ENCOUNTERED COMBINED WITH NIGHTTIME COOLING..MOD SNOWS SHOULD BEGIN
TO DVLP..ESPECIALLY OVER THE S WASATCH.
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....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF NWSCHAT (NESDISSATELLITEPRECIP)....
....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET....
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FOR QUESTIONS AND COMMENTS CONCERNING THE SATELLITE
PRECIPITATION MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS PLEASE EMAIL
SSDPrecip@noaa.gov
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FOR PRECIP MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS ON THE WEB:
http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/atmosphere/spe/
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FOR AUTOMATED SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES ON THE WEB:
http://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/emb/ff/CONUS.php
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LAT...LON 3805 11256 3605 11026 3131 10753 3092 11072 3473 11330
3533 11487 3644 11627
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