Special Weather Statement
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WWMY80 PGUM 211412

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tiyan GU
1145 PM ChST Sat Oct 21 2017

1145 PM ChST Sat Oct 21 2017

Tropical Depression 27W was located near latitude 11.7N and longitude
148.6E at 1000 PM ChST. This position was

About  305 miles southeast of Saipan
About  305 miles southeast of Tinian
About  285 miles southeast of Rota
About  285 miles east-southeast of Guam

Tropical depression 27W is expected to drift southwest Sunday before
turning to the west then northwest by Tuesday. Maximum sustained
winds are currently 35 mph, and only a slight increase in strength is
currently expected through Monday.

Current model trends agree on a southward dip the next couple of days
followed by a turn to the northwest, but there is still some
uncertainty as to the strength of the system. All computer models
keep 27W weak as it drifts southwest and indicate only minimal
intensification, possibly into a tropical storm, as it passes south
of Guam on Tuesday.

Since 27W is southeast of the Marianas, it bears watching and we will
continue to monitor it until it has passed the islands.

Latest models show showers and thunderstorms slowly increasing Sunday
morning and even further Tuesday and Tuesday night. North to
northeast winds Sunday will gradually turn to the east Monday and to
the southeast on Tuesday. The strongest winds are still expected
Monday night through Tuesday night once 27W is to the south or
southwest. Winds could reach 20 to 25 mph with gusts up to 35 mph,
before decreasing Wednesday.

In addition to the high surf conditions seen along west and north
facing reefs of the Marianas due to distant Super Typhoon Lan,
increased winds from TD 27W will cause seas to increase along east
and south facing reefs around Monday with surf likely becoming
hazardous on Tuesday. The rip current risk will remain high through


W. Aydlett

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