Soaring Guidance
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
000
UXUS97 KGJT 271324
SRGGJT

Soaring Forecast
National Weather Service Grand Junction, Colorado
0624 MST Saturday, December 27, 2014

This forecast is for Saturday, December 27, 2014:

If the trigger temperature of 27.7 F/-2.4 C is reached...then
   Thermal Soaring Index....................... Fair
   Maximum rate of lift........................ 281 ft/min (1.4 m/s)
   Maximum height of thermals.................. 9007 ft MSL (4168 ft AGL)

Forecast maximum temperature................... 28.0 F/-2.7 C
Time of trigger temperature.................... 1315 MST
Time of overdevelopment........................ None
Middle/high clouds during soaring window....... None
Surface winds during soaring window............ 20 mph or less
Height of the -3 thermal index................. 5628 ft MSL (789 ft AGL)
Thermal soaring outlook for Sunday 12/28....... Poor

Wave Soaring Index............................. Not available

Remarks...

Sunrise/Sunset.................... 07:32:09 / 16:58:34 MST
Total possible sunshine........... 9 hr 26 min 25 sec (566 min 25 sec)
Altitude of sun at 12:15:19 MST... 27.65 degrees

Upper air data from rawinsonde observation taken on 12/27/2014 at 0500 MST

Freezing level.................. Entire airmass below 32 F / 0 C
Convective condensation level... 10695 ft MSL (5856 ft AGL)
Lifted condensation level....... 10325 ft MSL (5486 ft AGL)
Lifted index.................... +11.8
K index......................... -0.7

Height  Temperature  Wind  Wind Spd  Lapse Rate  ConvectionT  Thermal  Lift Rate
ft MSL  deg C deg F   Dir   kt  m/s  C/km F/kft  deg C deg F   Index    fpm  m/s
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 50000  -52.8 -63.0   285   22   11   0.9   0.5  117.8 244.0    67.7      M    M
 45000  -50.9 -59.6   290   25   13  -3.5  -1.9   95.7 204.3    59.0      M    M
 40000  -49.8 -57.6   285   11    6   4.4   2.4   73.9 165.1    49.0      M    M
 38000  -48.7 -55.7   310   28   14   2.1   1.1   66.7 152.1    45.5      M    M
 36000  -49.1 -56.4   320   23   12   3.3   1.8   57.3 135.2    40.4      M    M
 34000  -49.2 -56.6   315   24   12   4.5   2.4   47.6 117.7    34.8      M    M
 32000  -50.8 -59.4   330   27   14  -2.0  -1.1   37.2  99.0    28.2      M    M
 30000  -50.0 -58.0   335   28   14   4.2   2.3   30.2  86.3    23.8      M    M
 29000  -49.8 -57.6   335   28   14  -0.3  -0.2   26.5  79.8    21.4      M    M
 28000  -49.6 -57.3   345   28   14   6.4   3.5   22.9  73.2    19.0      M    M
 27000  -47.5 -53.5   350   28   15   7.0   3.8   21.7  71.1    18.3      M    M
 26000  -45.3 -49.5   360   30   15   7.7   4.2   20.8  69.4    17.8      M    M
 25000  -42.9 -45.2   005   31   16   7.8   4.3   20.1  68.2    17.5      M    M
 24000  -41.7 -43.1   350   23   12   3.2   1.7   17.9  64.2    16.0      M    M
 23000  -40.4 -40.7   325   17    9   6.9   3.8   15.9  60.6    14.6      M    M
 22000  -38.4 -37.1   300   11    6   8.8   4.8   14.7  58.5    13.8      M    M
 21000  -36.0 -32.8   310   13    7   8.0   4.4   14.1  57.4    13.5      M    M
 20000  -33.8 -28.8   325   17    9   7.3   4.0   13.3  55.9    13.0      M    M
 19500  -32.8 -27.0   320   16    8   6.0   3.3   12.8  55.0    12.6      M    M
 19000  -31.9 -25.4   315   16    8   6.5   3.6   12.1  53.7    12.1      M    M
 18500  -30.1 -22.2   305   15    8   7.8   4.3   11.6  53.0    11.8      M    M
 18000  -29.1 -20.4   295   15    8   4.6   2.5   11.0  51.9    11.3      M    M
 17500  -28.4 -19.1   305   15    8   7.1   3.9   10.3  50.5    10.7      M    M
 17000  -27.2 -17.0   315   15    8   7.4   4.1    9.8  49.7    10.4      M    M
 16500  -26.1 -15.0   325   15    8   7.4   4.1    9.5  49.0    10.1      M    M
 16000  -25.0 -13.0   330   16    8   7.4   4.1    9.1  48.3     9.9      M    M
 15500  -23.9 -11.0   320   18    9   7.2   4.0    8.7  47.6     9.6      M    M
 15000  -23.5 -10.3   315   19   10  -0.2  -0.1    7.5  45.6     8.6      M    M
 14500  -23.4 -10.1   320   21   11   0.4   0.2    5.9  42.7     7.2      M    M
 14000  -23.4 -10.1   325   22   11   0.5   0.3    4.4  39.9     5.9      M    M
 13500  -23.3  -9.9   335   15    8   1.4   0.8    2.9  37.1     4.5      M    M
 13000  -22.8  -9.0   005    9    5   4.7   2.6    1.9  35.3     3.6      M    M
 12500  -22.1  -7.8   010   11    6   4.6   2.5    1.0  33.8     2.8      M    M
 12000  -21.4  -6.5   010   13    7   4.7   2.6    0.2  32.3     2.0      M    M
 11500  -20.8  -5.4   015   16    8   6.2   3.4   -0.7  30.7     1.3      M    M
 11000  -19.5  -3.1   015   18    9   8.7   4.8   -0.9  30.4     1.1      M    M
 10500  -18.2  -0.8   010   17    9   8.7   4.8   -1.1  30.0     0.9      M    M
 10250  -17.5   0.5   005   17    9   8.9   4.9   -1.2  29.9     0.8      M    M
 10000  -16.9   1.6   360   17    9   8.2   4.5   -1.2  29.8     0.7      M    M
  9750  -16.3   2.7   005   17    9   7.2   3.9   -1.4  29.5     0.6      M    M
  9500  -15.8   3.6   005   17    9   7.1   3.9   -1.6  29.1     0.4      M    M
  9250  -15.3   4.5   010   18    9   7.1   3.9   -1.8  28.7     0.2      M    M
  9000  -14.7   5.5   015   18    9   7.1   3.9   -2.0  28.4     0.0      M    M
  8750  -14.2   6.4   020   17    9   7.1   3.9   -2.2  28.0    -0.2    259  1.3
  8500  -13.7   7.3   020   16    8   7.1   3.9   -2.4  27.6    -0.4    236  1.2
  8250  -13.1   8.4   025   15    8   7.1   3.9   -2.6  27.3    -0.6    213  1.1
  8000  -12.6   9.3   030   14    7   7.1   3.9   -2.8  26.9    -0.8    190  1.0
  7750  -12.1  10.2   025   13    7   7.1   3.9   -3.0  26.5    -1.0    166  0.8
  7500  -11.6  11.1   020   11    6   7.1   3.9   -3.2  26.2    -1.2    143  0.7
  7250  -11.0  12.2   010   10    5   7.1   3.9   -3.4  25.8    -1.4    120  0.6
  7000  -10.5  13.1   360    9    5   7.1   3.9   -3.6  25.4    -1.6     96  0.5
  6750  -10.0  14.0   360    8    4   7.1   3.9   -3.9  25.1    -1.8     73  0.4
  6500   -9.4  15.1   005    6    3   7.1   3.9   -4.1  24.7    -2.0     50  0.3
  6250   -8.9  16.0   015    5    2   7.0   3.9   -4.3  24.3    -2.3     26  0.1
  6000   -8.4  16.9   030    3    2   7.4   4.0   -4.5  23.9    -2.5      3  0.0
  5750   -7.8  18.0   035    2    1   6.2   3.4   -4.7  23.6    -2.7      M    M
  5500   -7.5  18.5   035    2    1   3.2   1.8   -5.1  22.8    -3.1      M    M
  5250   -7.2  19.0   035    1    0   6.3   3.4   -5.5  22.0    -3.5      M    M
  5000   -6.9  19.6   000    0    0  -5.5  -3.0   -6.0  21.2    -4.0      M    M

 * * * * * * Numerical weather prediction model forecast data valid * * * * * *

           12/27/2014 at 0800 MST          |       12/27/2014 at 1100 MST
                                           |
K index... -5.9  LI... +7.8                | K index... -20.8  LI... +10.8
CAPE... 0.0  CIN... M                      | CAPE... 0.0  CIN... -0.4
                                           |
Height Temperature  Wnd WndSpd  Lapse Rate | Temperature  Wnd WndSpd  Lapse Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F  Dir kt m/s  C/km F/kft | deg C deg F  Dir kt m/s  C/km F/kft
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 50000 -54.1 -65.4  285  21 11   1.8   1.0 | -54.0 -65.2  285  19 10   1.3   0.7
 45000 -51.4 -60.5  295  20 10   1.8   1.0 | -52.0 -61.6  290  20 10   1.3   0.7
 40000 -50.1 -58.2  325  24 12   0.7   0.4 | -52.4 -62.3  340  28 14  -0.5  -0.3
 38000 -49.8 -57.6  335  27 14  -0.6  -0.3 | -52.7 -62.9  350  35 18   0.1   0.1
 36000 -50.1 -58.2  345  31 16  -0.5  -0.3 | -52.6 -62.7  360  44 23   0.1   0.1
 34000 -50.4 -58.7  355  35 18  -0.5  -0.3 | -52.5 -62.5  005  55 28   0.0   0.0
 32000 -50.3 -58.5  005  40 20   0.3   0.2 | -51.5 -60.7  010  67 35   2.1   1.2
 30000 -50.1 -58.2  010  46 24   0.4   0.2 | -50.2 -58.4  015  81 42   1.6   0.9
 29000 -49.2 -56.6  010  48 25   5.1   2.8 | -48.6 -55.5  015  79 41   6.9   3.8
 28000 -47.7 -53.9  010  49 25   5.3   2.9 | -46.5 -51.7  015  74 38   6.9   3.8
 27000 -46.1 -51.0  015  50 25   5.3   2.9 | -44.4 -47.9  015  68 35   6.9   3.8
 26000 -44.4 -47.9  015  50 26   7.0   3.9 | -42.3 -44.1  015  63 32   7.4   4.1
 25000 -42.2 -44.0  015  47 24   7.3   4.0 | -40.1 -40.2  010  59 30   7.4   4.1
 24000 -40.0 -40.0  015  44 23   7.3   4.0 | -37.8 -36.0  010  54 28   7.4   4.1
 23000 -37.8 -36.0  015  41 21   6.3   3.5 | -35.6 -32.1  010  50 26   7.5   4.1
 22000 -36.0 -32.8  010  36 19   6.1   3.3 | -32.8 -27.0  015  49 25   7.5   4.1
 21000 -33.7 -28.7  010  30 15   6.1   3.4 | -30.6 -23.1  015  47 24   7.6   4.2
 20000 -32.0 -25.6  005  25 13   5.6   3.1 | -28.6 -19.5  020  43 22   6.0   3.3
 19500 -31.1 -24.0  005  23 12   5.6   3.1 | -27.7 -17.9  020  41 21   6.0   3.3
 19000 -30.3 -22.5  005  21 11   5.6   3.1 | -26.8 -16.2  020  38 20   6.0   3.3
 18500 -29.5 -21.1  360  19 10   5.6   3.1 | -25.9 -14.6  020  35 18   6.1   3.4
 18000 -28.6 -19.5  360  17  9   5.7   3.2 | -25.1 -13.2  020  33 17   5.0   2.7
 17500 -27.8 -18.0  355  17  9   5.8   3.2 | -24.3 -11.7  020  30 15   5.1   2.8
 17000 -26.9 -16.4  355  16  8   5.7   3.1 | -23.6 -10.5  015  27 14   4.4   2.4
 16500 -26.1 -15.0  355  16  8   5.6   3.1 | -23.0  -9.4  015  24 12   4.1   2.2
 16000 -25.2 -13.4  350  16  8   5.5   3.0 | -22.4  -8.3  010  21 11   3.8   2.1
 15500 -24.4 -11.9  350  16  8   5.0   2.7 | -21.9  -7.4  005  19 10   3.3   1.8
 15000 -23.7 -10.7  350  15  8   5.0   2.7 | -21.4  -6.5  360  17  9   3.3   1.8
 14500 -23.0  -9.4  350  15  8   5.0   2.7 | -20.9  -5.6  355  15  8   3.7   2.0
 14000 -22.2  -8.0  350  14  7   5.1   2.8 | -20.3  -4.5  350  13  7   3.7   2.0
 13500 -21.5  -6.7  350  14  7   4.2   2.3 | -19.8  -3.6  340  12  6   3.1   1.7
 13000 -20.9  -5.6  350  13  7   4.3   2.4 | -19.4  -2.9  335  11  6   3.2   1.8
 12500 -20.2  -4.4  350  13  6   4.8   2.6 | -18.8  -1.8  330  10  5   3.7   2.0
 12000 -19.5  -3.1  355  12  6   4.7   2.6 | -18.3  -0.9  330  10  5   3.7   2.0
 11500 -18.7  -1.7  355  11  6   6.4   3.5 | -17.7   0.1  330   9  5   4.6   2.5
 11000 -17.8  -0.0  360  11  6   6.3   3.5 | -17.1   1.2  325   8  4   4.7   2.6
 10500 -16.8   1.8  005  10  5   6.3   3.4 | -16.3   2.7  325   7  4   5.5   3.0
 10250 -16.4   2.5  010  10  5   6.7   3.7 | -15.9   3.4  330   6  3   5.8   3.2
 10000 -15.9   3.4  010  10  5   5.1   2.8 | -15.5   4.1  330   6  3   4.7   2.6
  9750 -15.6   3.9  010  10  5   4.4   2.4 | -15.2   4.6  330   6  3   4.4   2.4
  9500 -15.2   4.6  015  10  5   6.0   3.3 | -14.8   5.4  335   5  3   5.7   3.1
  9250 -14.7   5.5  020   9  5   6.0   3.3 | -14.3   6.3  340   4  2   5.5   3.0
  9000 -14.3   6.3  020   9  5   5.3   2.9 | -14.0   6.8  350   4  2   4.9   2.7
  8750 -14.0   6.8  025   9  5   4.8   2.6 | -13.6   7.5  355   3  2   4.6   2.5
  8500 -13.6   7.5  030   9  4   5.3   2.9 | -13.3   8.1  010   3  1   5.0   2.8
  8250 -13.2   8.2  035   8  4   5.0   2.7 | -12.9   8.8  035   3  1   4.8   2.6
  8000 -12.8   9.0  035   8  4   4.4   2.4 | -12.5   9.5  050   3  1   4.4   2.4
  7750 -12.5   9.5  040   8  4   4.9   2.7 | -12.2  10.0  060   3  2   4.6   2.5
  7500 -12.1  10.2  045   7  4   5.5   3.0 | -11.9  10.6  070   3  2   4.7   2.6
  7250 -11.7  10.9  050   7  4   4.8   2.6 | -11.5  11.3  080   3  2   4.8   2.6
  7000 -11.4  11.5  055   7  3   4.3   2.4 | -11.2  11.8  095   3  2   4.7   2.6
  6750 -11.1  12.0  060   6  3   4.4   2.4 | -10.8  12.6  110   3  1   4.8   2.6
  6500 -10.8  12.6  070   6  3   3.4   1.9 | -10.4  13.3  130   3  1   6.7   3.7
  6250 -10.6  12.9  075   6  3   2.8   1.5 |  -9.8  14.4  140   2  1   8.2   4.5
  6000 -10.3  13.5  080   6  3   3.1   1.7 |  -9.3  15.3  155   2  1   7.3   4.0
  5750 -10.2  13.6  085   6  3  -0.4  -0.2 |  -8.6  16.5  165   3  1  11.8   6.5
  5500 -10.5  13.1  080   5  3  -6.0  -3.3 |  -7.4  18.7  160   2  1  20.8  11.4
  5250     M     M    M   M  M     M     M |     M     M    M   M  M     M     M
  5000     M     M    M   M  M     M     M |     M     M    M   M  M     M     M

           12/27/2014 at 1400 MST          |       12/27/2014 at 1700 MST
                                           |
K index... -24.1  LI... +11.5              | K index... -23.3  LI... +12.0
CAPE... 0.0  CIN... M                      | CAPE... 0.0  CIN... M
                                           |
Height Temperature  Wnd WndSpd  Lapse Rate | Temperature  Wnd WndSpd  Lapse Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F  Dir kt m/s  C/km F/kft | deg C deg F  Dir kt m/s  C/km F/kft
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 50000 -54.5 -66.1  285  20 10   0.6   0.3 | -56.3 -69.3  295  23 12   0.1   0.1
 45000 -53.6 -64.5  305  27 14   0.6   0.3 | -56.2 -69.2  320  33 17   0.1   0.1
 40000 -53.2 -63.8  330  28 14   0.2   0.1 | -55.1 -67.2  335  47 24   0.7   0.4
 38000 -53.3 -63.9  340  32 17  -1.2  -0.7 | -54.8 -66.6  340  56 29   0.2   0.1
 36000 -54.0 -65.2  350  50 26  -1.2  -0.6 | -54.7 -66.5  345  72 37   0.2   0.1
 34000 -54.7 -66.5  350  67 35  -1.5  -0.8 | -54.6 -66.3  350  89 46   1.0   0.5
 32000 -52.6 -62.7  355  73 38   4.4   2.4 | -51.7 -61.1  350  86 44   5.2   2.9
 30000 -49.7 -57.5  355  77 39   6.0   3.3 | -48.5 -55.3  345  82 42   6.0   3.3
 29000 -47.3 -53.1  360  75 38   8.2   4.5 | -46.4 -51.5  345  76 39   7.3   4.0
 28000 -44.8 -48.6  360  72 37   8.2   4.5 | -44.2 -47.6  345  69 35   7.3   4.0
 27000 -42.4 -44.3  360  70 36   8.2   4.5 | -42.0 -43.6  345  62 32   7.4   4.0
 26000 -40.0 -40.0  360  66 34   7.9   4.3 | -39.6 -39.3  345  57 30   8.5   4.7
 25000 -37.6 -35.7  360  60 31   7.9   4.3 | -37.1 -34.8  345  55 28   8.5   4.7
 24000 -35.3 -31.5  360  54 28   7.8   4.3 | -34.5 -30.1  345  52 27   8.5   4.7
 23000 -33.1 -27.6  360  50 25   6.8   3.7 | -32.1 -25.8  345  49 25   7.4   4.0
 22000 -31.0 -23.8  360  46 24   6.8   3.7 | -29.3 -20.7  345  44 23   7.4   4.1
 21000 -29.0 -20.2  360  43 22   6.9   3.8 | -27.1 -16.8  345  40 21   6.8   3.8
 20000 -27.2 -17.0  005  39 20   5.4   2.9 | -25.5 -13.9  340  36 19   5.1   2.8
 19500 -26.4 -15.5  005  37 19   5.4   2.9 | -24.8 -12.6  340  34 18   5.1   2.8
 19000 -25.6 -14.1  005  35 18   5.4   2.9 | -24.0 -11.2  340  32 17   5.1   2.8
 18500 -24.8 -12.6  005  33 17   5.3   2.9 | -23.3  -9.9  340  30 16   5.1   2.8
 18000 -23.4 -10.1  005  30 15   7.2   4.0 | -22.5  -8.5  340  28 15   5.0   2.8
 17500 -22.3  -8.1  005  28 14   7.3   4.0 | -21.8  -7.2  340  27 14   5.0   2.7
 17000 -21.4  -6.5  005  26 13   5.1   2.8 | -20.9  -5.6  335  25 13   6.3   3.4
 16500 -20.6  -5.1  005  24 12   5.0   2.7 | -19.9  -3.8  335  24 12   6.4   3.5
 16000 -19.9  -3.8  005  22 11   5.6   3.1 | -18.9  -2.0  335  22 12   5.9   3.2
 15500 -19.0  -2.2  005  20 10   5.9   3.3 | -18.1  -0.6  330  21 11   5.4   3.0
 15000 -18.1  -0.6  005  19 10   5.1   2.8 | -17.3   0.9  330  20 10   5.2   2.9
 14500 -17.5   0.5  360  16  8   3.1   1.7 | -16.6   2.1  325  18  9   4.7   2.6
 14000 -17.1   1.2  355  14  7   2.9   1.6 | -15.9   3.4  320  16  8   4.7   2.6
 13500 -16.8   1.8  345  12  6   1.2   0.6 | -15.2   4.6  315  15  8   4.1   2.3
 13000 -16.6   2.1  330  11  5   1.2   0.7 | -14.6   5.7  310  15  7   4.0   2.2
 12500 -16.5   2.3  320  10  5   0.5   0.3 | -14.4   6.1  305  14  7  -0.9  -0.5
 12000 -16.5   2.3  305   9  5   0.9   0.5 | -14.5   5.9  295  13  7  -0.4  -0.2
 11500 -16.1   3.0  295   9  5   3.5   1.9 | -14.4   6.1  285  12  6   0.9   0.5
 11000 -15.6   3.9  290   9  4   3.6   2.0 | -14.3   6.3  275  12  6   1.3   0.7
 10500 -15.0   5.0  285   8  4   4.1   2.3 | -14.0   6.8  270  12  6   3.1   1.7
 10250 -14.7   5.5  285   8  4   4.3   2.4 | -13.8   7.2  270  11  6   3.2   1.7
 10000 -14.4   6.1  280   7  4   3.6   2.0 | -13.6   7.5  265  11  6   2.7   1.5
  9750 -14.2   6.4  280   7  4   4.1   2.3 | -13.4   7.9  265  11  6   3.6   2.0
  9500 -13.8   7.2  280   7  3   5.3   2.9 | -13.0   8.6  265  11  5   4.8   2.6
  9250 -13.5   7.7  280   6  3   5.0   2.7 | -12.7   9.1  265  10  5   4.6   2.5
  9000 -13.1   8.4  280   6  3   5.0   2.7 | -12.4   9.7  265   9  5   5.2   2.8
  8750 -12.7   9.1  275   5  3   5.2   2.8 | -12.0  10.4  265   9  5   5.2   2.8
  8500 -12.3   9.9  270   4  2   5.5   3.0 | -11.6  11.1  265   8  4   4.6   2.5
  8250 -11.9  10.6  265   3  2   5.8   3.2 | -11.3  11.7  265   7  3   4.9   2.7
  8000 -11.5  11.3  260   3  1   6.0   3.3 | -10.9  12.4  265   6  3   5.3   2.9
  7750 -11.0  12.2  250   2  1   6.2   3.4 | -10.5  13.1  260   5  2   5.5   3.0
  7500 -10.5  13.1  230   2  1   6.4   3.5 | -10.1  13.8  260   4  2   5.8   3.2
  7250 -10.1  13.8  215   2  1   6.0   3.3 |  -9.6  14.7  250   3  1   5.7   3.1
  7000  -9.7  14.5  205   2  1   6.1   3.3 |  -9.2  15.4  230   2  1   5.6   3.1
  6750  -9.2  15.4  200   3  1   5.4   3.0 |  -8.8  16.2  205   2  1   5.5   3.0
  6500  -8.8  16.2  195   3  1   8.0   4.4 |  -8.4  16.9  175   2  1   6.7   3.7
  6250  -8.1  17.4  195   3  1  10.9   6.0 |  -7.8  18.0  170   2  1   7.6   4.1
  6000  -7.3  18.9  195   3  1   9.6   5.2 |  -7.3  18.9  165   3  1   7.7   4.2
  5750  -6.6  20.1  195   3  1  12.8   7.0 |  -6.8  19.8  165   3  1   7.3   4.0
  5500  -5.4  22.3  195   3  1  19.2  10.5 |  -6.3  20.7  165   2  1   5.1   2.8
  5250     M     M    M   M  M     M     M |     M     M    M   M  M     M     M
  5000     M     M    M   M  M     M     M |     M     M    M   M  M     M     M
________________________________________________________________________________

This product is issued twice per day, once by approximately 0630 MST/0730 MDT
(1330 UTC) and again by approximately 1830 MST/1930 MDT (0130 UTC).  It is not
continuously monitored nor updated after its initial issuance.

The information contained herein is based on rawinsonde observation and/or
numerical weather prediction model data taken at Walker Field in Grand
Junction, Colorado at

                   North Latitude:  39 deg 07 min 0.000 sec
                   West Longitude: 108 deg 32 min 0.000 sec
                   Elevation: 4839 feet (1475 meters)

and may not be representative of other areas along the Front Range of the
Colorado Rocky Mountains.  Note that some elevations in numerical weather
prediction models differ from actual station elevations, which can lead to
data which appear to be below ground.  Erroneous data such as these should
not be used.

The content and format of this report as well as the issuance times are subject
to change without prior notice.  Comments and suggestions are welcome and should
be directed to one of the addresses or phone numbers shown at the bottom of this
page.  To expedite a response to comments, be sure to mention your interest in
the soaring forecast.

DEFINITIONS:

CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy) - An integrated measure of the
     energy available for convective development, also known as the positive
     area on a thermodynamic diagram.  Units are Joules per kilogram.  Larger
     values are indicative of greater instability and the possibility of
     stronger convective activity, including thunderstorms.  Values around or
     greater than 1000 suggest the possibility of severe weather should
     convective activity develop.

CIN (Convective Inhibition) - An integrated measure of the amount of energy
     needed to initiate convective activity, also known as the negative area on
     a thermodynamic diagram.  Units are Joules per kilogram.  The more negative
     this number, the more energy is required to initiate convection.  This
     inhibitive energy can be overcome through surface heating, cooling aloft,
     lifting mechanisms (orographic, frontal, gravity waves, etc.)

Convective Condensation Level - The height to which an air parcel possessing the
     average saturation mixing ratio in the lowest 4000 feet of the airmass,
     if heated sufficiently from below, will rise dry adiabatically until it
     just becomes saturated.  It estimates the base of cumulus clouds that are
     produced by surface heating only.

Convection Temperature (ConvectionT) - The surface temperature required to make
     the airmass dry adiabatic up to the given level.  It can be considered a
     "trigger temperature" for that level.

Freezing Level - The height where the temperature is zero degrees Celsius.

Height of Stable Layer - The height (between 12,000 and 18,000 feet above
     mean sea level) where the smallest lapse rate exists.  The location and
     existence of this feature is important in the generation of mountain
     waves.

K Index - A measure of stability which combines the temperature difference
     between approximately 5,000 and 18,000 feet above the surface, the amount
     of moisture at approximately 5,000 feet above the surface, and a measure
     of the dryness at approximately 10,000 feet above the surface.  Larger
     positive numbers indicate more instability and a greater likelihood of
     thunderstorm development.  One interpretation of K index values regarding
     soaring in the western United States is given in WMO Technical Note 158
     and is reproduced in the following table:

          below -10    no or weak thermals
           -10 to 5    dry thermals or 1/8 cumulus with moderate thermals
            5 to 15    good soaring conditions
           15 to 20    good soaring conditions with occasional showers
           20 to 30    excellent soaring conditions, but increasing
                       probability of showers and thunderstorms
           above 30    more than 60 percent probability of thunderstorms

Lapse Rate - The change with height of the temperature. Negative values indicate
     inversions.

Lifted Condensation Level - The height to which an air parcel possessing the
     average dew point in the lowest 4000 feet of the airmass and the forecast
     maximum temperature must be lifted dry adiabatically to attain saturation.

Lifted Index (LI) - The difference between the environmental temperature at a
     level approximately 18,000 feet above the surface and the temperature of
     an air parcel lifted dry adiabatically from the surface to its lifted
     condensation level and then pseudoadiabatically thereafter to this same
     level.  The parcel`s initial temperature is the forecast maximum
     temperature and its dew point is the average dew point in the lowest 4000
     feet of the airmass.  Negative values are indicative of instability with
     positive values showing stable conditions.

Lift Rate - An experimental estimate of the strength of thermals.  It is
     computed the same way as the maximum rate of lift but uses the actual
     level rather than the maximum height of thermals in the calculation.
     Also, none of the empirical adjustments based on cloudiness and K-index
     are applied to these calculations.

Maximum Height of Thermals - The height where the dry adiabat through the
     forecast maximum temperature intersects the environmental temperature.

Maximum Rate of Lift - An estimate of the maximum strength of thermals.  It
     is computed from an empirical formula which combines the expected maximum
     height of thermals with the difference in the environmental temperatures
     between the maximum height of thermals and the temperature 4,000 feet
     above the ground.  After this computation, further empirical adjustments
     are made based on the value of the K-index and the amount and opacity of
     middle and high level cloudiness expected between the time of trigger
     temperature and the time of overdevelopment.

Middle/High Clouds - The amount and opacity of middle (altostratus, altocumulus)
     or high (cirrus, cirrostratus, cirrocumulus) clouds.  Broken means that
     between 60% and 90% of the sky is covered by the cloud, with overcast
     conditions occurring when more than 90% of the sky is covered by the cloud.
     Thin implies that the clouds are predominantly transparent, meaning that
     some sunlight is reaching the ground, in contrast to opaque which suggests
     that little sunlight is reaching the ground.

Potential Height of Wave - The minimum of the following two heights:
     1. Level above the height of stable layer (or 14,000 feet if none exists)
        where the wind direction changes by 30 degrees or more
     2. Level above the height of stable layer (or 14,000 feet if none exists)
        where the wind speed no longer increases with height

PVA/NVA - Positive vorticity advection (PVA)/negative vorticity advection (NVA)
     on the 500 millibar isobaric surface (approximately 18,000 feet above mean
     sea level).  Weak PVA has been shown to assist in mountain wave soaring.

Soaring Window - The time between the time the trigger temperature is reached
                 and the time of overdevelopment.

Thermal Index - The difference between the environmental temperature and the
     temperature at a particular level determined by following the dry adiabat
     through the forecast maximum temperature up to that level.  Negative values
     are indicative of thermal lift.

Thermal Soaring Index - An adjective rating (for sailplanes) based on the
     computed maximum rate of lift, and the wind speed and middle and high
     cloud cover expected during the soaring window (the time of the trigger
     temperature and the time of overdevelopment) according to the following:

                 Maximum rate of lift        Adjective Rating
                      >= 800 fpm                 Excellent
                 >= 400 and < 800 fpm              Good
                 >= 200 and < 400 fpm              Fair
                       < 200 fpm                   Poor

Time of Overdevelopment - The time one or more of the following phenomena,
     which essentially shut off thermal lift, is expected to occur:
     1. formation of broken to overcast convective cloud cover
     2. formation of scattered to numerous downbursts
     3. initiation of widespread precipitation

Time of Trigger Temperature - The time the surface temperature is expected to
     reach the trigger temperature.

Trigger Temperature - The surface temperature required to make the first 4000
     feet of the atmosphere dry adiabatic.

Wave Soaring Index - An empirical, adjective rating (for sailplanes) which
     attempts to combine a variety of phenomena important in mountain wave
     soaring into a single index number.  Objective points are assigned to
     these phenomena: wind speed and direction at 14,000 ft MSL, the static
     stability in the 12,000-18,000 ft MSL layer, the wind speed gradient above
     the stable layer, jet stream location and frontal and upper trough
     movements.

042613


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.