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000
FXUS65 KABQ 150845
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
245 AM MDT Mon Apr 15 2024

...New SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 206 AM MDT Mon Apr 15 2024

A strong low pressure system is moving out of California and
toward Colorado today, and this will create very windy conditions
over most of northern and central New Mexico. Temperatures will
also turn cooler today as an associated cold front sweeps across
the Land of Enchantment. A few light rain and snow showers will
even struggle to develop over the northern areas of the state
today and tonight, but the very gusty southwest winds will pose
bigger concerns with areas of blowing dust and even possible
damage to trees, utility poles and vulnerable structures,
particularly in the south central highlands. Drier conditions in
portions of central New Mexico and most eastern areas of the state
will create high fire danger with a dangerous threat for rapid
fire spread along with the gusty winds. Winds will shift more
northwesterly on Tuesday, remaining very strong and gusty with dry
conditions and near to slightly above average temperatures.
Breezy conditions will linger on Wednesday with a cold front
expected to lower temperatures by a few degrees later in the
week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 206 AM MDT Mon Apr 15 2024

Today`s forecast for strong to high winds and widespread critical to
extreme fire weather remains on track. Satellite imagery shows a
clear 554dm H5 upper low over far northwestern AZ while the LA,
Tuscon and Las Vegas 00Z upper air soundings sampled a stout 100-
110kt jetmax at 250mb. This strong jetmax is still expected to
scream over the south-central mountains with mountain wave activity
and vertical mixing translating some of this wind potential to the
surface. Vertical mixing and a deep 986mb lee side surface low over
northeastern CO will spread these stronger winds across the rest of
central and eastern NM this afternoon. The High Wind Warning and
Wind Advisories remain in tact for today through this evening. Wind
speeds are marginal for an advisory through far northeastern NM to
include Union, Harding, and eastern San Miguel Counties, while they
are just below high wind threshold at Roswell. Blowing dust will be
a main concern near the usual source regions, notably Roswell.
Isolated bouts of low visibility from brownouts in blowing dust will
be possible. If caught in a dust storm, play it smart and pull off
to the side of the highway and wait it out.

Meanwhile, a sharp cool down is forecast for much of western and
central NM thanks to a strong Pacific cold front. Highs in this area
fall 10F to 15F from yesterday`s readings. This front also brings a
northwesterly wind shift that will shift focus over the northern
mountains tonight into Tuesday morning. Strong northwest winds aloft
and mountain wave activity will allow for high winds to impact parts
of the Sangre de Cristo Mountains and adjacent highlands. These
winds shift southward over the Central Highlands along I-40 over
Guadalupe and Torrance Counties, expanding to eastern Lincoln County
late morning and through the afternoon. The High Wind Watch has been
expanded to eastern Lincoln County as a result for Tuesday. Winds
finally taper off toward the end of Tuesday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 206 AM MDT Mon Apr 15 2024

The upper low will continue to mover farther into the upper
MidWest Tuesday night into Wednesday morning with a zonal flow
prevailing over NM. Speeds aloft have been trending down with last
evening`s model runs advertising generally 15 to 25 kt at 700 mb,
but a lee side surface low in southeastern CO could still deepen
below 1000 mb, making a sufficient enough gradient to keep breezy
to windy conditions at work. The highest surface gusts would be
focused over the northeastern highlands where 35 to 40 mph will be
possible, but most outside zones will tend to just observe breezy
conditions (gusts of 25 mph or less). Temperatures would gain a
few degrees Wednesday as pressure heights keep nudging upward.

A Canadian low will move from Saskatchewan to Manitoba on
Wednesday and toward far western Ontario by Thursday with a
westerly polar jet streak rounding the base of this feature into
the northern Rockies and Great Plains of the ConUS. At the
surface, a cold front will lead a charge of surface high pressure
sliding southward. This cooler air should invade northeastern NM
by late Thursday. This could bring Union county just below
temperature normalcy for mid April, while remaining zones tend to
rise 5 to 10 degrees above average. The front will be poised to
overtake the eastern half of the state by late Thursday night and
early Friday morning with an easterly upslope wind developing and
creating extensive low stratus. No appreciable precipitation is
expected Thursday night, but some patchy drizzle or sprinkles
cannot be entirely ruled out.

The surface front is now modeled to retreat farther east on
Friday with winds veering southerly in the plains and west
southwesterly in remaining zones. A gentle shortwave trough near
the Gulf of CA will draw in some mid level clouds to NM, but very
dry boundary layer conditions will prevail. Temperatures on
Friday will run near to just slightly below average in the far
eastern tier of counties where the front retreats to, with the
above normal readings continuing elsewhere.

Return flow off of the Gulf of Mexico would be seeping over the TX
coast and up the lower Rio Grande valley nearby Friday evening.
High pressure at the surface will nudge westward Friday night into
Saturday morning, reinforcing a much more moist boundary layer
toward the central mountain chain of NM. More widespread low
stratus, drizzle and/or light showers are expected overnight with
a few thunderstorms possible, most likely during the day Saturday
when more destabilization will be possible. The same song and
dance should commence again Saturday night into Sunday morning,
but the low level moisture should be able to advance farther west
toward the Continental Divide.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1205 AM MDT Mon Apr 15 2024

VFR prevails overnight with mostly light and vrb winds. Strong
southwesterly winds begin in earnest near 15Z to 16Z Monday
morning most areas. Peak gusts starting off at 20 to 30kts will
quickly ramp up to 40 to 50 kts with the strongest winds focusing
over the south-central mountains and adjacent highlands to include
KSRR and KROW. Blowing dust will be an issue during the afternoon,
and have included a 4SM MVFR vis impact at KROW. Localized IFR and
LIFR conditions from blowing dust is possible at KROW this
afternoon. Winds begin to back off from their peak speeds past 01Z
but will remain windy well into Monday night. Winds shift
northwesterly through the northwestern half of the forecast area
near the end of the TAF period by 06Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 206 AM MDT Mon Apr 15 2024

...CRITICAL TO EXTREME FIRE WEATHER FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN ZONES
TODAY...

Strong to potentially damaging southwest winds gusting 45 to 55 mph
most areas and up to 65 mph through the south-central highlands and
mountains will combine with high Haines and single-digit humidity to
create widespread critical fire weather through the southeastern
half of the forecast area. This will mainly focus in areas along and
east of I-25 to include the Middle Rio Grande Valley. Portions of
the central highlands and eastern plains zones will see extreme fire
weather conditions from the high winds and abysmally dry conditions.
The Red Flag Warning remains in tact for today. The upper level
storm system responsible for these strong winds and dry conditions
will track east over CO late day and tonight with winds shifting out
of the northwest behind its associated Pacific cold front. These
northwest winds pick up in intensity tonight through Tuesday morning
and afternoon. Despite a cool down behind the cold front, low
humidity below 15 percent is forecast again for central and eastern
NM. The aforementioned strong northwesterly winds will combine with
these dry conditions to produce another round of critical fire
weather conditions through the central highlands, east-central
plains and northeastern plains Tuesday afternoon.

A weak backdoor front brings a quick northerly to easterly wind
shift along the TX border Tuesday night into Wednesday morning.
These winds quickly veer back out of the south by Wednesday
afternoon. Southerly winds will allow for a warmup most areas, and
another round of critically low humidity most areas. The breeziest
to locally windiest conditions allowing for one more round of
critical fire weather will focus through the northeastern highlands
and plains Wednesday afternoon. Thursday sees zonal flow arrive over
NM with a second backdoor front getting hung-up in northeastern NM
before it surges south and westward to the east slopes of the
central mountain chain Friday morning. A significant uptick in
moisture and a cool down will push in behind this frontal boundary
ending the threat of critical fire weather through eastern NM. Dry,
warm, breezy conditions remain persistent through western and
central NM however. This moisture boundary is favored to swash west
and east each day through the weekend with a weak upper level
feature capable of generating some showers and convective activity
over eastern NM.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  58  36  69  37 /  20  10   0   0
Dulce...........................  57  26  67  29 /  10  20   0   0
Cuba............................  56  32  64  34 /  10  10   0   0
Gallup..........................  57  29  68  29 /   5   5   0   0
El Morro........................  54  31  64  30 /   0   0   0   0
Grants..........................  59  31  69  30 /   0   0   0   0
Quemado.........................  58  31  65  32 /   0   0   0   0
Magdalena.......................  64  38  69  41 /   0   0   0   0
Datil...........................  58  34  64  34 /   0   0   0   0
Reserve.........................  64  29  73  32 /   0   0   0   0
Glenwood........................  67  40  75  43 /   0   0   0   0
Chama...........................  52  25  61  29 /  10  20   0   0
Los Alamos......................  58  36  65  41 /   5  10   0   0
Pecos...........................  60  33  66  37 /   5   5   0   0
Cerro/Questa....................  54  36  61  37 /   5  10   0   0
Red River.......................  51  25  58  28 /   5  10   0   0
Angel Fire......................  53  24  57  25 /   5  20   0   0
Taos............................  60  27  66  30 /   5  10   0   0
Mora............................  61  33  65  34 /   5   5   0   0
Espanola........................  67  37  73  38 /   5  10   0   0
Santa Fe........................  61  35  67  40 /   5   5   0   0
Santa Fe Airport................  64  35  70  38 /   5   5   0   0
Albuquerque Foothills...........  66  43  72  46 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Heights.............  68  41  74  47 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Valley..............  71  40  76  39 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  68  41  73  43 /   0   0   0   0
Belen...........................  73  40  77  40 /   0   0   0   0
Bernalillo......................  69  41  75  42 /   0   0   0   0
Bosque Farms....................  72  39  76  39 /   0   0   0   0
Corrales........................  69  41  75  42 /   0   0   0   0
Los Lunas.......................  72  41  76  40 /   0   0   0   0
Placitas........................  64  41  70  43 /   0   5   0   0
Rio Rancho......................  68  41  74  43 /   0   0   0   0
Socorro.........................  78  44  80  45 /   0   0   0   0
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  58  38  64  41 /   0   0   0   0
Tijeras.........................  62  38  67  41 /   0   0   0   0
Edgewood........................  64  38  68  37 /   0   0   0   0
Moriarty/Estancia...............  67  36  70  32 /   0   0   0   0
Clines Corners..................  64  34  65  36 /   0   0   0   0
Mountainair.....................  67  37  68  38 /   0   0   0   0
Gran Quivira....................  68  37  68  38 /   0   0   0   0
Carrizozo.......................  73  43  73  46 /   0   0   0   0
Ruidoso.........................  64  41  65  38 /   0   0   0   0
Capulin.........................  68  36  68  34 /   0   0   0   0
Raton...........................  69  36  73  34 /   0   0   0   0
Springer........................  70  38  73  35 /   0   0   0   0
Las Vegas.......................  64  36  70  36 /   0   0   0   0
Clayton.........................  76  44  75  42 /   0   0   0   0
Roy.............................  71  41  74  40 /   0   0   0   0
Conchas.........................  78  45  81  42 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Rosa......................  74  44  75  40 /   0   0   0   0
Tucumcari.......................  80  45  80  42 /   0   0   0   0
Clovis..........................  82  46  79  45 /   0   0   0   0
Portales........................  86  47  81  44 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Sumner.....................  81  46  80  43 /   0   0   0   0
Roswell.........................  87  48  85  48 /   0   0   0   0
Picacho.........................  78  45  76  46 /   0   0   0   0
Elk.............................  76  42  75  44 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from 10 AM this morning to 9 PM MDT this
evening for NMZ104-106-123>126.

Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 8 PM MDT Tuesday for NMZ104-125-
126.

Wind Advisory from noon today to 9 PM MDT this evening for
NMZ208-220>223-227>229.

High Wind Watch from late tonight through Tuesday afternoon for
NMZ214-215-229.

High Wind Warning from 6 AM this morning to midnight MDT tonight
for NMZ224>226-239-240.

Wind Advisory from noon today to midnight MDT tonight for
NMZ233>238.

High Wind Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday afternoon
for NMZ223-233-237-239.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....52
AVIATION...24