299
FXUS61 KALY 090540
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
140 AM EDT Thu May 9 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Variable cloudiness and cooler temperatures are expected
this morning.  Chances for showers increase late this
afternoon and tonight and linger through the weekend. It looks
like we trend back towards drier and slightly warmer conditions for
the beginning of next week before chances for showers increase again
by midweek.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
As of 123 AM EDT...The skies have become mostly clear or partly
cloudy in the wake of the cold front from the Capital District
south and east. Mostly cloudy conditions continue south and
west. Cold advection continues across the forecast area with
west northwest winds of 5-15 mph with a few gusts 20-30 mph over
the higher terrain. A few light showers/spotty drizzle
continues over the southern Dacks...mainly north of Old Forge.
Some changes to sky cover with this update and a re-trending of
temps. Portions of the southern Adirondacks are already in the
mid 40s according to the NYS Mesonet. Expecting lows in the 40s
north and west of the Capital District/Mid Hudson
Valley/southern Taconics and NW CT with lower to mid 50s in
these areas.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Tomorrow starts off relatively cool, especially across the
northern portions of our forecast area. It will also be dry to
start the day with a ridge of high pressure at the surface
beneath confluent flow aloft extending over our region. However,
a positively tilted upper trough with several embedded shortwave
disturbances rotating around it dips into the Great Lakes
region. The surface cold front continues its track southwards,
and an area of low pressure tracks eastwards from the Ohio
valley along the low-level thermal gradient beneath the left
exit region of the upper jet. This will bring increasing shower
chances in the afternoon and especially overnight, mainly for
areas along and south of I-90. Precipitation does not look as
widespread as it did at this time yesterday, especially tomorrow
afternoon. If current forecast trends continue, PoPs may have to
be trimmed back even more tomorrow. Temperatures will be in the
50s to 60s for highs tomorrow, and drop into the 40s tomorrow
night. A few wet snowflakes could mix in across the southern
Greens late tomorrow night, but little to no accumulation is
expected.

Friday and Friday night...Forecast confidence remains lower than
we would like for this timeframe. The upper trough takes on a
neutral to even negative tilt, and the surface low tracks to our
south off the Mid-Atlantic coast. At the same time, an inverted
trough will extend back north and west into central NY. We will
likely see showers or a period of steady rain for areas near the
inverted trough, but exactly how far north and east this feature
and the associated precip makes it remains somewhat uncertain at
this time. The best chance for rain therefore appears to be from
Albany south and west. Here, likely to categorical PoPs were put
in the forecast, with chance PoPs further north and east.
Precipitation chances diminish Friday night as the surface low
moves off to the east, but will keep slight chance to chance
PoPs around with the upper trough axis moving overhead. Friday
will be quite cool, with highs the 40s for many high terrain
areas with 50s for the lower elevations. Friday night lows will
generally be in the 40s, with some upper 30s in the high terrain
areas. A couple wet snow flakes could mix in across the highest
peaks of the ADKs, southern Greens, and Catskills with any
lingering light showers.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Long term period begins at 12z Saturday with another upper shortwave
approaching from the west. This shortwave will close off aloft at it
moves over our area, which will slow the forward progress of the
large-scale trough causing it to remain overhead through most of the
weekend. The surface low associated with the upper shortwave weakens
as it moves into our area before redeveloping well or our east over
the Atlantic. With the surface low and upper trough nearby all
weekend, temperatures will likely be on the cool side, mainly in the
50s (terrain) to 60s (valleys). It will be mainly cloudy with
chances for showers each day, although we will see scattered showers
as opposed to an all-day rain.

We may dry out Sunday night into Monday as upper confluence and a
ridge of high pressure briefly build over the region, although an
upper shortwave and associated cold front may bring additional
chances for showers Monday afternoon into Tuesday for the norther
half of our forecast area. The track of this feature is far from set
in stone, so at this time till mention chance PoPs north of I-90 and
work to refine the timing/location of any precip over the next few
days. Forecast confidence decreases for the Tuesday into Wednesday
timeframe, as another storm system will be developing upstream and
may eventually track into our region towards the end of the long
term period. Will mention chance PoPs Tuesday afternoon into
Wednesday. Monday through Wednesday will be warmer, with more sun
than over the weekend and a southerly component of the flow helping
to advect warmer air into the region.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Through 06Z Friday...VFR conditions are expected to prevail through
the remainder of the overnight period, with a chance for MVFR cigs
to develop at ALB/GFL/PSF after 08-09Z Thu, before returning to VFR
by 12-15Z Thu as diurnal mixing begins. Farther south at POU, low
clouds will hold off until after 12Z Thu, with only increasing
cirrus coverage expected through the early morning. No vsby
restrictions are anticipated through Thursday morning.

A warm front will lift across the region from the south Thursday,
bringing increasing low cloud coverage and rain showers in the
latter half of the period. MVFR cigs are expected to precede the
onset of light precipitation, arriving after 18Z Thu. Rain showers
will spread from south to north, with arrival time currently best
estimated at POU by 21Z Thu, PSF by 00Z Fri, and ALB/GFL by 03Z Fri.

West to northwest winds at ALB/PSF around 10 kt with occasional
gusts of 15-20 kt may continue through the next 2-3 hours, through
08-09Z Thu, before speeds lessen to less than 10 kt and winds shift
out of the northwest to north. West winds at POU will similarly
shift out of the north overnight, before flow turns increasingly out
of the northeast, persisting at 5-8 kt at all terminals through the
day on Thursday.

Outlook...

Thursday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA.
Friday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA.
Friday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Saturday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Sunday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Sunday Night: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Main/Wasula
NEAR TERM...Wasula
SHORT TERM...Main
LONG TERM...Main
AVIATION...Picard