782
FXUS64 KAMA 042316
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
616 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM ...
(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 206 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024

Low clouds are trying to break up across much of the area, but
not expecting much of a warmup across the area. In fact, even the
NBM 10th percentile highs are too warm across portions of the area
that are currently cloudy. Highs today may not reach 60 degrees for
Amarillo and surrounding areas, but highs in the 60s can be expected
in the northwest and southeast where clouds are not as widespread.
Rain and embedded thunderstorms may work up to the Panhandles later
today, but thinking that they may merely clip southern or
southeasterly TX Panhandle this evening, and maybe some showers may
grace the western Panhandles. NBM seems to be running quite hot with
the PoPs again, with 50-80% across much of the area tonight. Have
significant doubts about that. As such, have dropped PoPs to 15-25%
at most for the central and northern Panhandles, while generally
leaving PoPs for the periphery of the Panhandles. Rain chances exit
the Panhandles Sunday morning.

Sunday, a large upper-level trough moves toward the Panhandles,
skies clear, 850mb temperatures warm, and surface winds turn
southerly and breezy. All of these factors point toward highs
returning to the 70s to near-80. Winds strengthen overnight to 20-30
mph with gusts up to 40 mph as a surface low develops and rapidly
strengthens in eastern Colorado.

Vanden Bosch

&&

.LONG TERM ...
(Monday through next Friday)
Issued at 206 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024

A mostly dry forecast throughout the majority of the forecast
period. The only chances for some rain and or thunderstorms will
be on Monday and potentially on Friday. Starting on Monday, latest
04/12Z model and numerical guidance shows an occluded stacked low
pressure system over the norther High Plains. Further south
across the Panhandles, a sfc dryline will develop and with gusty
WSW sfc winds, the dryline should quickly move to the east
throughout the day. If any adjustments to the track of the main
low and/or winds behind the dryline become weaker, the dryline by
Monday afternoon may linger more in the eastern Panhandles. As of
right now the far eastern combined Panhandles will have the best
chance to stay along or east of the dryline by MOnday afternoon.
Ingredients will be there for all hazards for severe thunderstorms
potential if storms do develop. WInds behind the dryline based off
the latest probs have decreased in model runs over the past few
hours. We will still be monitoring the potential for some wind
headlines and fire weather conditions, but domain coverage could
be more limited compared to previous model runs. Highs on Monday
will range from upper 70s in the west to upper 80s in the east.

Zonal flow and dry conditions should resume through the middle of
the week for all of the Panhandles. A cold front should drop high
temperatures from above average of Tuesday and Wednesday, back to
near average by Thursday. A perturbation in H500 WNW flow may
bring a slight chance (~ 20%) to the western Panhandles by the
end of the forecast period. Highs on Friday will remain cool with
temperatures below average for early May.

Meccariello

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 607 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024

An approaching weather system is pushing more moisture across the
panhandles. This is already causing MVFR ceilings at KAMA which
will spread to KDHT and KGUY this evening. Conditions can
deteriorate to IFR during the late evening to overnight hours.
IFR conditions have a higher chance of occurring in the southern
panhandles and a lesser chance in the northern panhandles. With
the additional moisture rain showers and even isolated embedded
thunderstorms may occur this evening to early overnight. This
would also be more likely in the S panhandle. Currently the threat
of thunderstorms is not high enough to carry in any of the TAFs.
There is even a very low chance that a strong to severe
thunderstorm can occur with hail and damaging winds being the main
threat. Late Sunday morning through the evening should see enough
moisture leave the panhandles that the threat of showers and
thunderstorms become very low. Easterly winds this evening will
slowly shift to become southerly by the afternoon hours of Sunday.
Then Sunday afternoon will see these winds become gusty persisting
through Monday.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                52  73  58  83 /  30  10  10  10
Beaver OK                  48  75  56  85 /  20  20  10  20
Boise City OK              45  75  55  78 /  10  10  10   0
Borger TX                  53  78  60  87 /  20  10  10  10
Boys Ranch TX              52  80  59  84 /  20  10  10   0
Canyon TX                  52  75  58  83 /  40  10  10   0
Clarendon TX               52  71  58  85 /  60  10  20  10
Dalhart TX                 47  76  54  80 /  20  10  10   0
Guymon OK                  46  75  56  82 /  20  10  10  10
Hereford TX                52  78  58  83 /  50  10  10   0
Lipscomb TX                51  74  58  86 /  40  20  20  20
Pampa TX                   52  73  58  83 /  20  10  10  10
Shamrock TX                52  73  58  87 /  60  20  20  20
Wellington TX              54  73  58  87 /  80  20  20  20

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...52
LONG TERM....29
AVIATION...98