549
FXUS63 KAPX 011837
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
237 PM EDT Wed May 1 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Elevated fire danger in our southeast areas this
  afternoon/evening.

- Chances of precipitation and thunderstorms possible at times
  this weekend before conditions dry out early next week.

- Watching for more organized precipitation towards the end of
  the long term period.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: ~1004mb low pressure is currently
situated just east of Lake Superior early this afternoon with a
trailing cold/occluded front clearing eastern upper and the sunrise
side of northern lower. Main slug of showers from earlier this
morning now well off to the east.

Heading through this evening, mid-level height rises to be the rule
as ridging amplifies over the western Great Lakes into Thursday.
Surface high pressure to accompany this, eventually breaking down
later Thursday as another area of low pressure meanders well to our
northwest dragging a myriad of boundaries near and through northern
Michigan late this week.

Forecast Details: Mix of sun and clouds across the forecast area
this afternoon -- more clouds across the tip of the mitt and eastern
U.P. coinciding well with lingering low PoPs for an isolated shower
into this evening. Elevated fire danger remains this afternoon in
far southeastern areas given lower RHs near 30% and localized
westerly gusts as high 30-40 mph. Improvement to that threat
expected this evening as winds diminish and good RH recovery
overnight. Patchy fog possible tonight as well.

Much of the day Thursday expected to feature tranquil conditions
with gradually increase/thickening clouds. Perhaps a few showers
sneak in to western areas during the afternoon, but latest trends
over the last 24 hours or so suggest a later arrival time to more
steadier rains hold off until Thursday night into Friday morning.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Pattern Synopsis and Forecast:

Midlevel longwave troughing currently over North America with large
scale low pressure centered over the Alberta/Saskatchewan region
will occupy the Great Lakes region for the entirety of the long term
period. Embedded height disturbances will keep active weather
conditions this weekend across the CWA as showers and thunderstorms
move across the state.

Weak, low pressure will develop lee of the rockies and make its way
to the Midwest by Thursday night delivering the first round of
showers and storms. Additional precipitation returns Saturday night
supported by troughing tied to aformentioned low pressure currently
over Saskatchewan.

Primary Forecast Concerns/Key Messages:

-Chances of precipitation and thunderstorms remain possible at times
this weekend before conditions dry out early next week: While most
times remain cloudy and quiet across the CWA this weekend, a quick
shot of rain begins Thursday night as a weak frontal passage
delivers scattered showers and thunderstorms into the day
Friday. Latest guidance depicts PWAT values near climatological max,
weak forcing mechanisms will keep measurable QPF low for most
locations. A general tenth or so of liquid can be expected for most
areas but a few locations could see over a half inch under more
convective showers this Friday. Less precip is expected this Sunday
as the second trough moves across the Midwest delivering a general
trace to tenth of an inch of measurable precipitation.

-Watching for more organized precipitation towards the end of the
long term period: Shortwave midlevel ridging begins to build at the
start of next week across the Midwest, keeping conditions dry this
Monday. Temperatures will climb above normal for early May with
highs in the low to mid 70s for most locations south of the Bridge.
Long range guidance continues to hint a more active weather
returning to the Great Lakes region around the Tuesday/Wednesday
timeframe as midlevel closed low pressure currently over Pacific
Northwest progresses to the central CONUS. Too early to message
impacts at this moment but will continue to monitor this feature and
its potential impacts to the region next week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Lingering MVFR CIGs, primarily at CIU, this afternoon may continue
right on through tonight with latest trends suggest those lower
clouds bleed into northern lower toward and after sunset. Any
lingering lower ceilings Thursday morning should lift to VFR
through the day. Occasionally gusty west winds this afternoon
diminish overnight.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for
     LHZ345>349.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for LMZ323-
     341-342-344>346.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MJG
LONG TERM...SJC
AVIATION...MJG