Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXNT20 KNHC 270600
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Wed Mar 27 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0540 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN SIGNIFICANT SWELL EVENT...

Large swell is being generated by a 1005 mb 33N66W low pressure
center. The swell, that has been in the range from 12 feet to 16
feet, has been propagating southward, and it is covering the
waters that are from 26N northward between 64W and 76W. Rough seas
are elsewhere from 22N northward from 60W westward, and to the
north of the Bahamas. The low pressure center will move slowly
toward the south-southeast. It is expected to cross into the
Atlantic Ocean forecast waters from 31N southward on Wednesday.
It will be stationary, gradually, near 26N60W on Thursday, while
dissipating. Mariners should monitor these hazardous marine
conditions and adjust their routes accordingly.

Please, read the latest High Seas Forecast, that is issued by the
National Hurricane Center, at the website:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal border areas of
Guinea and Sierra Leone, to 04N18W. The ITCZ continues from
04N18W, to 01N22W, crossing the Equator along 23W, 06S26W, and
08S33W. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is from
08N southward between 10W and 54W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

One stationary front passes through SE Louisiana, and it curves
into the Deep South of Texas. No significant deep convective
precipitation is apparent with the front in the satellite images.

A second stationary front passes through the Florida Big Bend,
into the central Gulf of Mexico, into the SW corner of the Gulf,
to the eastern part of the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern
Mexico. Precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered clouds, and
isolated moderate, are within 420 nm to the southeast of the line
30N88W 26N93W 20N97W. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong
is within 30 nm on either side of 27N88W 30N84W. Moderate to fresh
SE winds are within 420 nm to the east of the second stationary
front, and within 180 nm to the west of the front. Moderate or
slower winds are in the rest of the Gulf of Mexico. Rough seas are
from the west central Gulf to the north central Gulf of Mexico.
Moderate seas cover the rest of the area.

A cold front extends from just SE of Panama City, Florida to the
western Bay of Campeche, and is beginning to stall. Strong NE
winds and rough seas associated with the front prevail behind the
front mainly N of 22N. Expect fresh to occasionally strong
northerly winds along building seas following the front as it
moves slowly across the south-central and southeast Gulf Thu into
Thu evening, with seas becoming rough near the Yucatan Channel by
Thu night. Winds and seas will diminish again across the Gulf into
Sat as the high pressure moves eastward across the northern Gulf.
Looking ahead, expect moderate to fresh SE return flow over the
northwest Gulf by late Sun.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A cold front passes through 22N60W in the Atlantic Ocean, to 17N62W
in the NE Caribbean Sea. The front continues to 15N64W in the
Caribbean Sea. Precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered
clouds, and isolated moderate, are from 12N northward from 75W
eastward.

Strong SE winds are within 180 nm of Honduras from 82W westward.
Fresh SE winds are elsewhere from 12N northward from 80W westward.
Moderate or slower winds are from 80W eastward. Moderate seas are
to the northwest of the line that runs from NW Cuba to the eastern
coast of Honduras. Slight seas are elsewhere in the Caribbean Sea.

The 24-hour rainfall totals in inches, for the period that ended
at 27/0000 UTC, are: 1.08 in Guadeloupe. This information is from
the Pan American Temperature and Precipitation Tables/MIATPTPAN.

Fresh to strong SE winds over the northwest Caribbean will
diminish through Wed, as a cold front moves SE into the southeast
Gulf of Mexico. Fresh to strong N winds and large swell will
follow the front as it moves in through the Yucatan Channel Thu.
The front will continue to move SE and reach from central Cuba to
the Gulf of Honduras Thu evening, and from eastern Cuba to eastern
Honduras Fri morning as wind and seas diminish across the
northwest Caribbean. Looking ahead, expect fresh to strong NE
winds across the Windward Passage by Sat morning, as the front
stalls from central Hispaniola to northeast Nicaragua. Expect
fresh to strong NE winds and rough seas across the central
Caribbean Sun as high pressure builds north of the region and to
the east of the northern Bahamas, in the wake of the front.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about the
SIGNIFICANT SWELL EVENT that is covering the Western Atlantic
Ocean, from the Bahamas northeastward.

Rough to very rough seas are from 29N northward from 20W eastward.
Rough seas are to the north of the line: 28N16W in the Canary
Islands, to 17N23W 13N38W 22N60W. Moderate seas are in the
remainder of the Atlantic Ocean. Mostly strong to some fresh
anticyclonic wind flow is from 14N northward from the 31N59W
17N62W cold front eastward. Moderate to fresh anticyclonic wind
flow is elsewhere from 14N southward from 60W eastward.

A cold front passes through 31N59W, to 22N60W, to 17N62W in the NE
Caribbean Sea. The front continues to 15N64W in the Caribbean Sea.
Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean
from the cold front eastward. Moderate to fresh northerly winds
are between the cold front and 70W. Mostly moderate anticyclonic
wind flow is from 70W westward. Precipitation: broken to overcast
multilayered clouds are from 10N northward between 50W and 60W.
Scattered moderate to widely scattered strong is from 20N
northward between 50W and 57W. Isolated moderate to locally strong
is elsewhere from 14N northward between 50W and 60W. The 24-hour
rainfall totals in inches, for the period that ended at 27/0000
UTC, are: 0.18 in Bermuda. This information is from the Pan
American Temperature and Precipitation Tables/MIATPTPAN.

Fresh to strong winds N of 26N, and rough to very rough seas,
accompany a cold front extending from 31N60W to the northern
Leeward Islands. The front will move slowly eastward and weaken
through midweek, as associated low pressure currently just NW of
Bermuda moves southeastward to near 29N60W midday Wed, and to near
26N59W Thu. The front will dissipate through late Fri as the low
pressure stalls, weakens, and lifts northward through Sat.
Meanwhile, fresh to strong winds and rough seas will follow a new
cold front that will move off the NE coast of Florida Thu, reach
from Bermuda to eastern Cuba Fri morning, and from 31N55W to
central Hispaniola Sat morning. Winds and seas will diminish in
most areas W of the front as high pressure builds along 27N in the
wake of the front.

$$
mt/ss


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