276
FXUS61 KBGM 012208
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
608 PM EDT Wed May 1 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry weather has returned thru Friday. Temperatures will remain
above average for early May.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
605 PM Update...

No major changes with this update. Blended current observations
into the forecast. Near-term forecast remains on track.


200 PM Update...

Clouds are slowly dissipating early this afternoon as drier air
mixes into the boundary layer from aloft. Clear to mostly clear
skies are expected tonight as a surface high slides off to the
east. Southerly winds will pick up overnight and with dry air
mixing in, decided to keep fog out of the grids for the
overnight hours. A cold front moving through as a weak low
passes through to the north early tomorrow morning with
sprinkles added to much of CNY as the front should be mostly dry
but a few isolated showers can not be ruled out.

Ridging begins to build in tomorrow with NW flow advecting in
cooler air so highs will be a little cooler than today. Dry
weather will continue through Thursday night with the ridge
axis approaching.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
350 PM Update...

Quiet weather will remain in place Friday with upper level
ridging in place. Light southerly flow and warm advection will
lead to a warmer day for most in the afternoon with highs in the
70s. Surface high pressure will be shifting to the east during
the afternoon and evening giving way to a front approaching from
the west. This will bring a chance of showers to the area
Saturday, with showers becoming more likely (55-70%) Saturday
afternoon and night. With the increase in clouds and showers, it
will turn cooler Saturday with highs in the 60s. Lows Saturday
night will be largely in the 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
350 PM Update...

Showers remain likely into Sunday, especially through early
afternoon, as the front mentioned above continues to slowly
press eastward. This will keep conditions cool with highs in the
50s and 60s. Another front approaching from the west will keep
a slight chance of showers around into Sunday night. However,
the main upper support with this feature is expected to pass by
off to our north leading to more isolated activity.

Temperatures will be back on the rise again Monday through
midweek, making a return to the 70s. Weak surface high pressure
does work its way back into the area Monday leading to a largely
dry day. A warm front looks to move in from the south and west
and into our area Tuesday into Wednesday bringing a chance of
showers and perhaps some rumbles of thunder.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Ceilings have largely scattered out with SYR and RME trying to
hold on to them but given dry air mixing in, the MVFR cigs will
likely scatter out by 19Z. High pressure in place will keep VFR
conditions at all terminals through the rest of the afternoon
and overnight hours. ELM has a low chance of fog tonight with a
cold front approaches and helps keep the low levels mixed. There
is not much moisture with the frontal passage so cigs will stay
high and little to no precipitation keeps vis above 6 miles.

Outlook...

Thursday...VFR Likely.

Friday...Mainly VFR, but late day showers/t`storms possible.

Saturday into Monday...Restrictions possible in showers and
thunderstorms.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TAC
NEAR TERM...AJG/KL
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...DK
AVIATION...AJG