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000
FXUS61 KBTV 171910
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
310 PM EDT Wed Apr 17 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A weakening area of surface low pressure moving into the Great Lakes
region combined with embedded shortwave energy aloft will bring a
period of light rain to the forecast area late tonight through
Thursday. Dry conditions follow for Friday morning, but a cold front
passage in the afternoon and evening will bring an additional round
of light rain. Mostly dry conditions and seasonally cool
temperatures are expected for the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 310 PM EDT Wednesday...Overall the forecast for tonight through
Thursday night remains on track with a weakening are of surface low
pressure tracking into the Great Lakes region being the main feature
of interest for weather across the North Country and Vermont.
Shortwave energy ejecting out of the parent mid/upper level trough
on southwest flow will provide the support for showers to develop
late tonight through Thursday as a ribbon of enhanced low to mid
level moisture moves in on the nose of a modest 925-850mb jet. Ahead
of the precipitation, southeasterly winds look more robust compared
to the previous forecast with good mixing ahead of the precipitation
and 925mb winds in the favored downslope prone regions topping out
around 45kts. Think areas along the western slopes of the
Adirondacks and Green Mountains will see gusts in excess of 35mph
for a short period after midnight through midday Thursday before the
areal coverage of showers increases and the low levels stabilize.
Showers may linger into the first half of Thursday night as well
with low clouds and moisture potentially supporting some areas of
drizzle through the night as well. Overall the basin average QPF
will be light though, with generally 0.2" or less across Vermont and
up to a third of an inch possible across northern New York. Min
temps tonight and Thursday night will be on the mild side of normal
in the upper 30s to mid 40s, and highs won`t be much warmer on
Thursday in the mid 40s to low 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 310 PM EDT Wednesday...As we transition further into Spring,
days like Friday will become increasingly common. Slated for Friday
will be a one-two combo with a prefrontal trough during the
afternoon and the actual front coming through after sunset. The
highest chances for showers will be Friday afternoon, but most
forcing will come from isentropic upglide. Overall, the better
dynamics are to our north, and the frontal boundary is diffuse.
Precipitation amounts will be at or less than 0.10" favoring
northern New York and the northern Greens. Breezy south to southwest
flow will yield wind gusts of 15 to 25 mph, especially in the
northern Champlain Valley and northern slopes of the Adirondacks.
High temperatures will mainly be in the 50s, with a few spot 60s in
warmer locales within the St. Lawrence and northern Champlain
Valley. Cold air before the front could bring a few summit snow
showers as temperatures sink into upper 30s to lower 40s at low
elevations, 30s in the Adirondack wilderness, and Mt. Marcy and
Whiteface into the upper 20s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 310 PM EDT Wednesday...There are several vigorous shortwave
troughs that will traverse the region over the weekend into the new
week. However, none of them really tap into a tropical moisture
feed. The strongest one will swing through on Saturday. Although
surface moisture will be decreasing from a recent frontal passage
and surface pressures are rising, the vorticity advection with the
trough is quite strong and there will be steep low level lapse rates
with up to 100 J/kg of CAPE. It is difficult to say whether
precipitation can reach the ground. Forecast soundings depict very
dry near surface conditions. What this may do is produce virga that
also create gusty winds as the steep low-level lapse rates aid in
the acceleration of downdrafts in convective activity. For now, the
forecast depicts the highest precipitation chances along the
international border where the shortwave tracks and keeps conditions
dry south with wind gusts generally 25 to 30 mph, locally up to 35
mph.

The next shortwave trough moves in almost immediately behind the
previous system, racing through Saturday night. Ultimately, this
system will likely have too little moisture and will reinforce cool
air that should keep the region around seasonal norms. The next
upper trough will descend over Quebec Province late Sunday evening
into Monday, but the front is so diffuse and it will again be
moisture starved. Upper level troughiness gets briefly interrupted
by a weak ridge and south to southwest flow to produce some warmer
temperatures. However, by late next Tuesday evening into next
Wednesday, there is another trough. This one should have some more
moisture with it and have a larger impact on sensible weather
conditions with shower activity sliding in for the middle of next
week.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Through 18Z Thursday...VFR conditions will largely prevail
across the region for the next 24 hours with a slowly
approaching front bringing MVFR conditions only into KMSS after
12Z, holding off at all other sites until after 18Z. Otherwise,
mid/high clouds will continue to thicken across the region this
afternoon and lower overnight to 6-10kft by Thursday morning and
to around mountain summit levels through 18Z. Variable winds
this afternoon at 6-8kts will trend southeasterly at all sites
overnight and become gusty up to 25kts Thursday, strongest at
KBTV. Exception will be KMSS where northeasteries will prevail
through the period and gusts will be more persistent in the
18-25kt range.

Outlook...

Thursday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Slight
chance SHRA.
Friday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Saturday: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight
chance SHRA.
Sunday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Lahiff
NEAR TERM...Lahiff
SHORT TERM...Haynes
LONG TERM...Haynes
AVIATION...Lahiff