312
FXUS62 KCAE 270625
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
225 AM EDT Sat Apr 27 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Weak high pressure will be over the region through Monday along
with partly to mostly cloudy skies and a warming trend. A weak
front is expected to bring a slight chance of showers and
thunderstorms late Tuesday through Thursday, mainly northern and
eastern areas.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Current satellite imagery shows mostly cloudy skies across much
of the area with partly cloudy in the eastern Midlands. Through
daybreak expect the cloud to progress eastward with most of the
forecast area mostly cloudy by daybreak. With the clouds already
in place temperatures have been slow to cool and additional
clouds will limit cooling over the next couple of hours. As a
result have increased overnight low a degree or two with mid 50s
to around 60.

Easterly flow will continue over the area today as the ridge of
high pressure remains across east of the area along the coast
with upper level ridging building over the eastern US. This
will continue pushing moisture into the area and keep skies
partly to mostly cloudy through today and into tonight. Main
concern today is some guidance suggesting there could be a
couple showers develop along the coast and move inland while the
remainder of the guidance suggests near zero chance of showers.
With the cloud cover expected coupled with an inversion around
10 kft and some drier air in the mid levels have kept mention of
showers out of the forecast however have increased pops through
the afternoon just below slight chance. This evening with the
loss of heating all potential for showers dissipates and some
clearing is expected overnight. High temperatures this afternoon
will be in the upper 70s to around 80 with low tonight in the
mid to upper 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Upper ridging is expected to remain over the region through the
weekend. At the surface, high pressure is forecast to be
centered off the Mid- Atlantic/Northeast coast. This high is
anticipated to weaken and drift south. The combination of
ridging aloft and surface high centered to our east is expected
to continue the fair weather and gradual warming trend. Some
guidance is showing a subtle boundary working its way around the
surface high, which can mainly be seen in brief lowering of
PWATS behind it. This feature could bring showers near the area
Sunday afternoon, but it looks like any shower activity will
remain offshore. That said, the Euro and GEFS ensembles are
showing a low chance (~10-20%) for precipitation associated with
this, mainly in the CSRA. In contrast, the NBM is showing 0%
chance of rain on Sunday. Forecast soundings indicate there
would need to be some sort of forcing strong enough to provide
enough lift to get showers in the area, which I`m not confident
the boundary will be. Therefore, have decided to keep PoPs below
10%.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Upper ridging and surface high pressure remain in place to
start the work week, allowing for a warming trend to continue as
temperatures rise into the mid to upper 80s. A shortwave and
associated frontal boundary are forecast to move through the
region around midweek, bringing a slight chance of showers and
an isolated thunderstorm. Despite the potential showers, warm
temperatures are anticipated to continue. A deeper trough
approaches the area toward the end of the long term period,
which looks to give us a better chance of more widespread
rainfall late next week into the weekend. That said, it`s still
several days away so confidence is on the lower side still.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Low confidence in VFR conditions through the period.

Weak high pressure will be over the region through the period
however moist easterly flow will continue. Current obs across
the area show plenty of mid and upper level clouds and expect
this to limit any fog development through sunrise. The moisture
will also keep clouds across the terminals through the day with
mainly VFR cigs however there are some indications of some MVFR
cigs at a few points through the day. Confidence in MVFR cigs
developing is low and plan to handle with a TEMPO group if
necessary. Clouds will begin to lift this evening into tonight
with mostly cloudy skies tonight again limiting fog potential.
Winds through the period will be easterly at 8 knots or less.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Restrictions possible in early
morning fog or stratus each morning. Slight chance of afternoon
showers and thunderstorms Tuesday onward.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$