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000
FXUS61 KCLE 140018
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
818 PM EDT Sat Apr 13 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A high pressure ridge will build over the region early this evening
and shift to the mid Atlantic coast by Sunday morning. Meanwhile low
pressure will track southeast across the northern Great Lakes to New
York by Sunday evening. A trailing cold front will drop south
through the region Sunday night and high pressure will build into
the region on Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
The forecast remains on track for tonight and expect to see
wind gusts drop off rather quickly past sunset. Looking at the
set-up for tomorrow it does look like the warm sector will be
quite breezy as low pressure passes north of Lake Erie with
winds of around 35 knots at 925mb. Wind gusts will develop as
the pressure gradient tightens between 6-10 AM and should mix
to at least 3-4K feet during the afternoon, allowing gusts to
top 30 mph and even near 35 mph at times. We will advect higher
dewpoints into the region but do expect the strong boundary
layer winds and generally dry air above the inversion to
simultaneously contribute to dewpoints mixing out to some
degree. It also looks like a capping inversion and EML will
overspread the region, possibly limiting the coverage of storms
until a cold front settles south into far Northeast Ohio and
Northwest Pennsylvania towards 20Z. With these factors in mind,
did slightly lower pops to the west where frontal forcing will
be less effective at breaking the cap. Storms should tend to
move southeast out of the area through 02Z.

Previous discussion...
Fair weather is expected for much of tonight as a ridge of high
pressure moves overhead and to the mid Atlantic coast by
morning. A weak diffuse warm front will lift northeast late
tonight and early Sunday morning and may produce a few showers
mainly over Lake Erie and nw PA. Much warmer air will advect
into the region in the wake of the warm front. Instability will
increase in the afternoon with CAPE reaching 1000-1500 J/KG.
Deeper wind shear will increase to near 40 knots. As a cold
front approaches the region in the mid afternoon, scattered
showers and thunderstorms will develop mainly east of I-71. The
ample wind shear will help organize and sustain storms. There
is mainly a marginal threat of severe weather (hail and damaging
wind) as the convection develops and intensify in the CWA
before moving to the east.

The front will drop south through the area Sunday night and the
chance of showers and storms will end by midnight.

High temperatures will range from near 65 at the nw PA shoreline
to near 80 at FDY. Low temperatures tonight and Sunday night
will mainly be in the 40s, except slightly cooler in nw PA this
evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
An upper ridge building into the Great Lakes region on Monday will
allow for surface high pressure to remain strong across the area and
have a dry forecast for Monday and Monday night. Temperatures on
Monday will be slightly cooler than Sunday behind a cold front with
more noticeably cooler temperatures in NE OH and NW PA, where the
front will be stronger and precipitation on Sunday will help
temperatures tumble. For Tuesday, the former cold front from Sunday
will lift north to the lake as a warm front. There could be some
rain showers with this front and perhaps some thunder, depending on
how much instability returns to the region. THe main upper trough
and low will begin to enter late in the period and have PoPs
increasing appropriately.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The most active system of the week will be largely into the forecast
area on Wednesday as an upper trough will support a low pressure
system into the Great Lakes region. A high PoP for showers and
thunderstorms is reflected in the forecast for Wednesday with the
system in the region. There could be some stronger convection with
good jet energy across the region. The question will once again be
instability, especially with the system timing across the area. The
system will trek east Wednesday night into Thursday and have
decreasing PoPs back to chance levels as the system departs. The
next upper trough digs into the upper Midwest for Friday into
Saturday and will bring another system to the region with some
marginal rain chances at this time. The more notable feature with
this system will be the return of cooler temperatures, perhaps
cooler than normal for the weekend into next week. There will be
some frost/freeze potential depending on how the set up evolves.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z Sunday THROUGH Thursday/...
High pressure extending north up the Ohio Valley will move east
of the area overnight. Meanwhile low pressure over the Upper
Midwest will pass north of Lake Erie on Sunday, eventually
allowing a cold front to settle south into the area late in the
period. Conditions are VFR and cloud free to start the TAF cycle
and will see some VFR clouds near 5K feet towards ERI by 12Z as
a warm front lifts north. A few showers are also possible but
coverage will be limited. Most terminals will see a window of
low level wind sheer overnight as a 45-50 knot low level jet
moves east across the area between 07-14Z. Did add a brief
window of low level wind sheer, 2-4 hours for the period of
time where surface winds remain less than 15 knots but winds
increase substantially toward 2k feet, before surface wind gusts
ramp up between 10-15Z.

Breezy southwest surface winds will gust between 25-30 knots for
much of the day on Sunday but a few stronger gusts can not be
ruled out. VFR conditions will continue through at least 18Z
then see some clouds and scattered thunderstorms develop in
primarily northeast Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania as a cold
front settles south after 20Z. A capping inversion will limit
coverage of storms across northwest and most of north central
Ohio. Given uncertainty in coverage, only added a vicinity
shower to the forecast at YNG/CAK for now but may eventually
need a couple hour window of thunderstorms. Brief MVFR is
possible with any thunderstorm along with isolated wind gusts as
high as 45 knots.

Winds will shift to the northwest or north behind the front.

Outlook...Non-VFR expected with showers and thunderstorms
Tuesday through Thursday.

&&

.MARINE...
Brisk westerly winds will continue across the lake this afternoon
and evening, but the wind trend has been down as the main
problematic system exits to the east. Will maintain just a sliver of
a Small Craft Advisory for the eastern portions of the lake through
this evening for where 20 kt+ winds and some elevated waves will
remain through sunset. A weak low will pass north of the lake on
Sunday and extend a cold front across the basin. This feature will
generate some showers and storms and winds will increase from the
southwest ahead of the front - close to Small Craft Advisory levels.
With the frontal passage, the winds will veer to the north and
decrease. High pressure will be across the region on Monday and
allow for light flow, eventually shifting to southerly. A warm front
will lift to the lake on Tuesday and promote easterly flow across
the basin. The front will lift north of the lake for Wednesday as a
low pressure system moves through the Great Lakes region and there
will be concern for a marine headline with that system.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
NY...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for
     LEZ147>149.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LaPlante
NEAR TERM...KEC/LaPlante
SHORT TERM...Sefcovic
LONG TERM...Sefcovic
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...Sefcovic