243
FXUS64 KCRP 291118
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
618 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 228 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

Key Messages:

- Marginal risk for severe weather today

- Isolated showers and thunderstorms

- High risk of rip currents today through tonight

- Minor coastal flooding expected today

A mid to upper level trough will continue to swing through Central
Texas today sending a shortwave just north of the area which
could be enough to trigger some convection today. The chances of
thunderstorms will be low, but any storms that do develop could
become strong to severe. With that in mind, the Storm Prediction
Center has included much of South Texas in a Marginal Risk for
severe weather. HiRes models are certainly not overly excited
about our chances for any widespread showers with most of the
activity developing over the Coastal Bend and over the Coastal
Waters. Chances for showers and storms will wane overnight
before a low to medium (15-40%)chance of showers and thunderstorms
redevelops Tuesday. This looks like a better chance for us to
receive some much needed rain as another shortwave moves directly
over the area.

While the P-ETSS does indicate a lower tidal forecast for today,
long period swell and elevated seas will lead to minor coastal
flooding again. It is possible that minor coastal flooding could
occur during high tide again on Tuesday, but with tidal levels
trending down, long period swell diminishing, and wave heights
subsiding, was not comfortable extending the Coastal Flood
Advisory beyond tonight. These conditions will also lead to a
continued risk of high rip currents through tonight. This will be
especially noticeable in any areas of egress from the
intracoastal waters as the waters from minor coastal flooding find
their way back to the Gulf.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 228 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

Key Messages:

 Daily low to medium (20-40%) chance of showers and thunderstorms
over South Texas

 Moderate risk of heat-related impacts Wednesday and Thursday

An unsettled weather pattern ahead as a sub-tropical jet at 250mb
combined with mid-level shortwaves and well above normal moisture
will lead to daily low to medium (20-40%) shower and thunderstorm
chances across South Texas. Most favorable conditions occur Thursday
into Friday as stronger shortwaves combine with an approaching cold
front. A deep low over the northern Great Plains swinging eastward
on Friday, will reflect a surface cold front into Texas. This cold
front will likely come to a halt north of South Texas over the Hill
Country but pre-frontal surface troughing leads to an increase to
medium rain chances and a slight directional wind shift through
Friday. There is a very high (80-95%) chance of SBCAPE over 2000
J/kg across portions of South Texas Wednesday through Friday with a
weakening cap during the midday and afternoon hours; this will
further favor our thunderstorm chances during the day.

Additional mid-level shortwaves move across the area during the
weekend and will therefore maintain a low chance (10-30%) of showers
and thunderstorms. But confidence lowers heading towards the end of
the long term as cap increases, model discrepancies become more
apparent, and upper-level ridging amplifies with an embedded
shortwave counteracting.

High temperatures range from the mid 80s to mid 90s and induce a
moderate risk of heat-related impacts to portions of South Texas
through Friday, with greatest concern Wednesday and Thursday across
all of South Texas. This risk poses the greatest threat to
individuals sensitive to heat and those without effective cooling
and/or hydration. Please make sure to drink plenty of water and take
frequent breaks if outdoors! Last but not least, swell periods near
8 seconds and moderate onshore flow could lead to greater wave runup
and an increased risk of minor coastal flooding and rip currents.
However, confidence is low as astronomical tide is lowering through
the middle of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 551 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

A mixture of MVFR and VFR ceilings will start our Monday morning.
Ceilings will become VFR late this morning or early this
afternoon. There is a low chance of showers and thunderstorms
today, so have included a mention of VCTS across the Coastal
Plains and Victoria Crossroads. MVFR ceilings will develop again
tonight.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 228 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

A Small Craft Advisory will remain in effect over the coastal
waters through this afternoon as wave heights remain elevated.
Wave heights will subside this afternoon, leaving us with light to
moderate onshore flow. There is a low to moderate chance of
showers and thunderstorms today through Tuesday. There is medium
confidence in patchy to areas of fog late tonight. Weak to
moderate onshore flow Tuesday night through Wednesday will
strengthen to moderate Wednesday night through Thursday night.
Onshore winds back down to weak to moderate Friday into the
weekend. There is a low chance, 20 to 30 percent, of showers and
thunderstorms daily Wednesday through Saturday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    89  74  87  74 /  20  10  30   0
Victoria          88  70  86  72 /  20  10  40   0
Laredo            95  74  94  76 /  10  10  10   0
Alice             91  73  89  74 /  30  10  30   0
Rockport          84  74  83  74 /  20  20  40   0
Cotulla           94  74  93  76 /  10  10  10   0
Kingsville        90  74  89  74 /  30  10  40   0
Navy Corpus       84  74  83  76 /  20  20  40   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ245-
     342>347-442-443-447.

     High Rip Current Risk through Tuesday morning for TXZ345-442-443-
     447.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for GMZ250-
     255-270-275.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LS
LONG TERM....EMF
AVIATION...LS/77