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000
FXUS63 KDDC 241948
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
248 PM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013

...UPDATED SYNOPSIS AND SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 246 PM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013

THIS MORNINGS UPPER AIR ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW AN OMEGA BLOCK
PATTERN SITUATED OVER NORTH AMERICA. A 500 MILLIBAR LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WHILE A
SHORTWAVE LOBE WAS ROTATING AROUND THE SOUTHEAST AND EASTERN
QUADRANT OF THE LOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND ADJACENT HIGH
PLAINS. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO EXTEND FROM THE
EASTERN DAKOTAS INTO TEXAS. IN THE LOWER LEVELS, A WARM FRONT HAD
PUSHED INTO EASTERN COLORADO BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 PM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013

LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE HAS BECOME MORE EVIDENT IN THE SURFACE
OBSERVATION DATA ACROSS FAR EASTERN COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW
CUMULUS WERE STARTING TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS LINE BUT MODEL
SOUNDINGS STILL SHOW SOME CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE DEVELOPED OFF THE RATON MESA. THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING, EXPECT TO SEE THIS ACTIVITY MOVE INTO
EASTERN COLORADO ALONG WITH A FEW STORMS BREAKING OUT ALONG THE
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME MODERATE
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR OUT OVER THE COLORADO BORDER REGION. THIS
COULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW STORMS TO PRODUCE HAIL UP TO GOLF
BALL SIZE. AT THIS TIME DO NOT EXPECT THE ACTIVITY TO BECOME TOO
WIDESPREAD BUT WE COULD SEE IT PROPAGATE THROUGH WEST CENTRAL
KANSAS DURING THE EVENING HOURS. WILL CARRY SOME SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS...MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF THE ARKANSAS RIVER...TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS. MODEL QPF FIELDS SHOW PRECIPITATION ENDING LATER IN THE
EVENING SO WILL HAVE PRECIPITATION ENDING AROUND OR AFTER MIDNIGHT.

ON SATURDAY, THE MID LEVEL FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
CONTINUES FROM THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST AS THE MID LEVEL RIDGE
SLIDES A LITTLE FARTHER EAST. THE MID LEVEL FLOW LOOKS A LITTLE
WEAKER DURING THE DAY. THE MODELS SHOW A DRYLINE FORMING OUT ALONG
THE COLORADO BORDER WHICH SHOULD BE THE FOCUS FOR WIDELY SCATTERED
TO ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. WITH THE
LOWER LEVELS CONTINUING TO MODIFY AND WARM ON SATURDAY, WE SHOULD
SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES HITTING OR EXCEEDING 90 DEGREES IN MANY
AREAS OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS, ESPECIALLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 283.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 409 AM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013

ON SATURDAY THE WARM FRONT IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTH TO NEAR THE
NEBRASKA BORDER AS A SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE/DRYLINE DEVELOPS
OVER FAR EASTERN COLORADO. 700MB TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM
TO +12 TO +14C ABOVE THIS EASTERN COLORADO SURFACE BOUNDARY BY 00Z
SUNDAY, HOWEVER GIVEN THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN AND EXPECTED
HIGHS SATURDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS FAR WESTERN KANSAS THE CHANCE FOR
SOME CONVECTION STILL APPEARS POSSIBLE IF THE CAP CAN BE BROKEN.
MODEL SOUNDINGS NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER SUGGESTS THIS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. 0-6KM SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE 30-40KNOTS, MUCAPES RANGED
FROM 2000-3000J/KG AND 700-500MB LAPSE RAGES GREATER THAN 8C/KM. IF
STORMS DO DEVELOP ON SATURDAY A FEW OF THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE
OF BECOMING SEVERE.

A SIMILAR SETUP IS EXPECTED AGAIN ON SUNDAY. MODELS SUNDAY AFTERNOON
HOWEVER PLACE THE DRYLINE A LITTLE FURTHER EAST AND EXTENDED IT FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS FAR WESTERN KANSAS. INSTABILITY SIMILAR TO
SATURDAY AFTERNOON BUT 0-6KM SHEAR BASED ON THE 00Z NAM IS EXPECTED
TO SLIGHTLY WEAKER. 0-10KM BULK SHEAR HOWEVER IMPROVES TO GREATER
THAN 40KTS. IN ADDITION A SUBTLE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED IN
THE FLOW IS FORECAST BY ALL THE MODELS TO BE CROSSING WESTERN KANSAS
LATE SUNDAY. GIVEN THIS ALONG WITH THE LATE DAY HEATING/INSTABILITY
AND A SURFACE BOUNDARY/MOISTURE IN PLACE WILL AM UNABLE TO RULE OUT
SCATTERED/WIDELY SCATTERED LATE DAY STORMS, SOME POSSIBLY SEVERE.

BASED ON 00Z NAM AND GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS AND 850-700MB TEMPERATURES
EACH EVENING...HIGHS IN UPPER 80S TO MID 90S STILL LOOKS ON TRACK
BOTH DAYS. THE WARMER DAY OF THE WEEKEND PERIOD WILL BE SUNDAY.

A SLOWLY MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EASTWARD TOWARDS THE ROCKIES EARLY NEXT
WEEK. UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS
THIS UPPER TROUGH CROSSES THE FOUR CORNERS REGIONS. AS THIS SYSTEM
APPROACHES...SUBTLE UPPER LEVEL WAVES EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW ARE
FORECAST TO MOVE OUT OF THE BASE OF THIS SYSTEM AND OUT INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. SURFACE BOUNDARY/DRYLINE IS ALSO FORECAST BE
LINGERING IN/NEAR WESTERN KANSAS. EXACTLY WHERE THIS BOUNDARY WILL
BE EACH EVENING EARLY NEXT WEEK IS UNCLEAR BUT GIVEN THE WARM, DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED BEHIND THIS DRYLINE ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS POSITIONS OF WESTERN
KANSAS EARLY NEXT WEEK. IN ADDITION SCATTERED/WIDELY SCATTERED LATE
DAY STORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 108 PM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THIS AFTERNOON. WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP OVER FAR EASTERN COLORADO LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS
UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAR EAST THESE STORMS WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN
KANSAS THIS EVENING. FOR NOW WILL CARRY VCTS AT THE GARDEN CITY
AND HAYS TAF SITES GENERALLY FROM AFTER 01Z THROUGH 06Z. MVFR CIGS
COULD REDEVELOP LATE THIS EVENING ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  63  89  62  92 /  20  10  20  20
GCK  63  91  63  94 /  20  20  30  20
EHA  62  92  62  96 /  20  20  30  20
LBL  62  91  63  94 /  20  10  20  20
HYS  63  90  64  91 /  20  20  30  20
P28  66  87  65  90 /  10  10  20  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...GERARD
SHORT TERM...GERARD
LONG TERM...BURGERT
AVIATION...GERARD