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000
FXUS63 KDDC 250852
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
352 AM CDT SAT MAY 25 2013


.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 349 AM CDT SAT MAY 25 2013

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WAS PRESENT ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS INTO
THE DAKOTAS LAST EVENING. THE 00 UTC UPPER AIR REGIONAL ANALYSIS
SHOWED WARM 700 MB AIR AROUND +10 DEGREES C OR HIGHER FROM THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS WESTWARD. A STEADY 850 MB MOISTURE
TRANSPORT SIGNAL REMAINED PRESENT IN THE ANALYSIS, WHICH IS AN
EXTENSION NORTHWARD OF GULF MOISTURE FROM TEXAS INTO NEBRASKA.
1500-2000FT BKN-OVC STRATUS BECAME WIDESPREAD ACROSS A RATHER
FOCUSED AREA AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE THROUGH CENTRAL KANSAS ESPECIALLY
FROM DODGE CITY TO PRATT, NORTHWARD TO HAYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CDT SAT MAY 25 2013

THE POSSIBLE PRESENCE OF STRATUS WILL BE THE EARLIEST PROBLEM THIS
MORNING, FOLLOWED BY TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE CHANCES
AND POTENTIAL IMPACTS TONIGHT.

STRATUS HAS BEEN SLOWLY TRENDING FARTHER EASTWARD, PERHAPS BY BEING
RADIATIONALLY WARMED BY THE MID CLOUD LAYER ALOFT ON THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OBSERVABLE IN 11-3.9 MICRON, AS WELL AS VEERING SURFACE
WINDS. IT CAN ONLY BE SAFE TO ASSUME STRATUS WILL AFFECT CENTRAL
KANSAS INTO THE EARLY MORNING WHEN STRONG INSOLATION RESUMES.
A STRONG SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT, INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY TO
AROUND 12 MB WILL ENSURE MARGIANLLY WINDY CONDITITONS THIS
AFTERNOON. THE LATEST NAM MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE FORECAST DOES NOT
DEVIATE MUCH FROM THE PREVIOUS DAY`S OFFICIAL HIGH FORECAST OF UPPER
80`S TO LOW 90S ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS.

THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION LATER TODAY OR THIS EVENING APPEARS TO
BE GENERALLY SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT. THE REASONABLY WARM OR CAPPED
NATURE OF THE MID LEVELS WILL LIKELY PREVENT FOCUSED CONVECTION
ALONG A DRYLINE CONVERGENCE FEATURE (AND THE DRYLINE ISN`T REALLY
THAT SHARP ANYWAY). THE VARIOUS NAM-WRF SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THE
POSSIBILITY OF 2 TYPES OF CONVECTION (IF AT ALL). RELATIVELY HIGH
BASED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF EASTERN
COLORADO LATE IN THE DAY AND SPREADING EASTWARD INTO WESTERN  KANSAS
DURING THE EVENING. A RELATIVELY SMALL HAIL THREAT AND PROBABLY A
BETTER CHANCE FOR A COLD POOL INDUCED MARGINAL SEVERE WIND THREAT
COULD EXIST THROUGH MIDNIGHT. BETTER SHEAR WILL EXIST ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL KANSAS , NEAR THE NOSE OF A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET. IF
ANY ORGANIZED CONVECTION DEVELOPS ACROSS THAT ZONE, A BETTER CHANCE
FOR MORE BETTER SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS MAY EXIST THAT COULD BE DRIVEN
INTO CENTRAL KANSAS. THE WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT MAY STILL BE A
HINDRANCE FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL OVER SW KS, AS THE NAM WARMS THE
MIDLAYERS BY ABOUT ANOTHER DEGREE WHICH COULD PREVENT CONVECTION
ALTOGETHER OVER SW KANSAS. IF CONVECTION DOES MATERIALIZE, IT SHOULD
BE FAIRLY ISOLATED.


.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CDT SAT MAY 25 2013

MODELS THIS MORNING REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH KEEPING AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES
THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS A
DRYLINE IS FORECAST TO BE LOCATED ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. ALTHOUGH
THE EXACT LOCATION OF THIS SURFACE BOUNDARY IS UNCLEAR, ALL MODELS
SUGGEST THAT THE 700MB TEMPERATURES WILL VARY FROM +12 TO NEAR +14C
ABOVE THIS SURFACE BOUNDARY. DESPITE THESE WARM TEMPERATURES, GIVEN
THE EXPECT HIGHS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AND THE RETURN OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TO WESTERN KANSAS AM STILL UNABLE TO COMPLETELY RULE OUT
SOME WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION AS SUBTLE WAVES MOVES ACROSS THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW FROM SUNDAY
THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS LATE THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. BASED ON THE
850MB-700MB TEMPERATURE PROFILES THE PREVIOUS FORECAST STILL LOOKS
ON TRACK WITH HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90. JUST WEST OF
THE DRYLINE COULD EVEN EXPERIENCE TEMPERATURES WARMING TO AROUND 100
DEGREES. IN ADDITION TO THESE WARM AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES, DEW
POINTS IN THE 20S ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO PORTIONS OF WESTERN
KANSAS SUNDAY AND MONDAY JUST WEST OF THE DRYLINE. THIS COMBINED
WITH GUSTY SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS MAY RESULT IN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER
LEVELS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS. AT THIS TIME GIVEN THE
EXPECTED WIND SPEEDS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON WEST OF THE DRYLINE
WILL AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION HAVE DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ISSUING A
FIRE WEATHER WATCH BUT WILL KEEP MENTION GOING IN THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES IMPROVE ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS MID WEEK AS THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FINALLY MOVES EAST INTO THE ROCKIES, AND THEN OUT
INTO THE PLAINS. EXACT TIMING IS UNCLEAR SO WILL STAYED CLOSE TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST AND CREXTENDFCST_INIT ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ALSO A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS WESTERN KANSAS
MID WEEK WHICH SHOULD LOWER HIGHS BACK TO MORE SEASONAL LEVELS.



&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1255 AM CDT SAT MAY 25 2013

AREAS OF MVFR CATEGORY STRATUS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS
EARLY THIS MORNING IN A HIGH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE ENVIRONMENT.
STRATUS MAY LINGER OR REOCCUR DURING THE OVERNIGHT WHERE THE DRYLINE
HAS RETREATED WESTWARD. ANY LINGERING STRATUS WILL LIKELY NOT BE AN
ISSUE AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS SATURDAY. STEADY WARM SECTOR 20 KT
WINDS WITH GUSTS OT NEAR 30 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 349 AM CDT SAT MAY 25 2013

DEWPOINTS WILL FALL BACK INTO THE 30S ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS A
DRYLINE MOVES EAST ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. THIS COMBINED WITH
UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL RESULT IN AFTERNOON RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES FALLING BACK INTO THE TEENS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST
KANSAS.  THE UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ON MONDAY
AND AS AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS FALL BACK INTO THE 20S MONDAY AFTERNOON
THE AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT AROUND
10 PERCENT. GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE AT 15 TO 20 MPH
BOTH DAYS, HOWEVER BASED ON THE RECENT FUEL STATUS AND POSSIBLE
RAINFALL OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS IT CURRENTLY APPEARS THAT A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH WILL NOT BE NEEDED. ELEVATED FIRE DANGER LEVELS
HOWEVER ARE EXPECTED BOTH DAYS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  89  65  95  66 /  10  20  10  10
GCK  92  65  96  65 /  10  20  20  20
EHA  93  62  98  63 /  10  20  10  10
LBL  91  66  96  65 /  10  20  10  10
HYS  90  66  93  67 /  10  20  20  20
P28  88  65  91  68 /  10  20  10  20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RUSSELL
SHORT TERM...RUSSELL
LONG TERM...BURGERT
AVIATION...RUSSELL
FIRE WEATHER...BURGERT