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000
FXUS63 KDDC 220600
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
100 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION FOR 06Z TAF FORECAST...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL PASS TO THE EAST OF THE PLAINS TONIGHT,
WITH WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO WESTERN KANSAS. THIS WILL
RESULT IN WINDS BECOMING LIGHT. WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING, THE
SCATTERED TO BROKEN CONVECTIVE CLOUD WILL DISSIPATE, LEADING TO MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES. LIGHT WINDS AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE 40S.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL PROGRESS INTO THE WESTERN UNITED STATES
BY WEDNESDAY. WESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW WILL DEVELOP THROUGH THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
SOUTHERLY WINDS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES, PARTICULARLY OVER FAR
SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS CLOSE TO THE LEE TROUGH AND WARM FRONT. HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S AT HAYS TO BETWEEN 85 AND 90 IN FAR
SOUTHWEST KANSAS. INTENSE HEATING AND MARGINAL MOISTURE IN FAR SOUTHWEST
KANSAS WEDNESDAY EVENING NEAR THE WARM FRONT MAY BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE
A SHOWER OR TWO TOWARDS 7 PM. EVENTUALLY THE LEE TROUGHING WILL RESULT IN
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN INTO THE PLAINS, BUT NOT UNTIL LATER IN THE
WEEK SINCE THE LEE TROUGH WILL TEND TO STAY JUST SOUTH OF KANSAS ALONG
THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

A PERIOD OF QUIESCENT WEATHER WILL PREVAIL IN WESTERN KANSAS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY, AND TEMPERATURES WILL PROVIDE THE BIGGEST FORECAST
CHALLENGE. CONSIDERABLE HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD
INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS THIS MORNING AS THE VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IN NEW MEXICO MOVES EAST INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. THE HIGH
CLOUDINESS WILL THIN THIS AFTERNOON AS THE TROUGH PROPAGATES EAST
INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. VERY COLD AIR ALOFT WILL PERSIST, AND
AFTERNOON HEATING WILL SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF HIGH BASED CUMULUS
CLOUDINESS AGAIN TODAY. COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE SUBTLE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING, AND THE LOW LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER THAN YESTERDAY. TEMPERATURES AT
H7 ARE CONTINUING TO COOL, AND MID LEVEL INSTABILITY WILL BE NEARLY
ABSENT THIS AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT, THERE SHOULD BE FEW IF ANY HIGH
BASED SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. A SUBTLE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN EASTERN
UTAH WILL DROP INTO NEW MEXICO AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO THIS
AFTERNOON, AND THE ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET STREAK WITH THE MINOR
TROUGH MAY PROVIDE SOME UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IN SOUTHEAST COLORADO
LATE IN THE DAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS TO HAVE SOME SLIGHT MID LEVEL
INSTABILITY IN FAR SOUTHWEST KANSAS, AND A FEW VIRGA SHOWERS MAY
SPREAD FROM COLORADO INTO MORTON COUNTY BEFORE DYING THIS EVENING.
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN MONDAY AS A
CONSEQUENCE OF THE INVASION OF COOLER AIR LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL COVER WESTERN KANSAS TUESDAY NIGHT, AND
WINDS WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY THIS EVENING AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
STABILIZES. DEW POINTS IN THE 30S, MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND COLD AIR
ALOFT WILL FAVOR STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING, AND TEMPERATURES WILL
DROP INTO THE 40S DURING THE NIGHTTIME HOURS.

THE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IN SASKATCHEWAN WILL BUILD INTO THE
NORTHWEST TERRITORIES AS THE DEEP TROUGH NEAR 130W CLOSES OFF OVER
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY. A TROUGH ROTATING AROUND THE A
LOBE OF THE POLAR VORTEX NORTHEAST OF HUDSON BAY WILL DIG SOUTH TO
JAMES BAY WEDNESDAY, AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
OPEN UP AND MOVE EAST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
WILL BUILD OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WEDNESDAY, AND ANOTHER DAY OF
MILD, QUIET WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED IN WESTERN KANSAS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1234 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

NO IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE PERIOD. THE BASE OF A SMALL S/WV
TROUGH ROTATING AROUND THE ORIGINAL UPPER LOW OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST WILL SWING THROUGH DURING THE DAY AND SATELLITE IMAGES DOE
SHOW SOME ENHANCEMENT OF MID/UPPER CLOUDS WITH THIS FEATURE.
SURFACE WINDS IN THE PRESENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME
VARIABLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. AS
PRESSURES LOWER TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTHEAST AND THEN EAST OR NORTHEAST BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  51  73  58  79 /  10  20  40  30
GCK  51  72  58  80 /  20  20  30  30
EHA  54  78  59  84 /  20  30  30  30
LBL  53  75  60  83 /  20  30  30  30
HYS  50  71  56  76 /  10  20  40  30
P28  54  73  59  77 /  10  20  30  30

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FINCH
LONG TERM...GERARD
AVIATION...HUTTON