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000
FXUS63 KDDC 191656
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1156 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES DEVELOPING INTO A CLOSED OFF LOW AS IT
MOVES EAST OUT INTO THE PLAINS OF SOUTH DAKOTA AND NEBRASKA TODAY.
THIS WILL SHIFT THE FOCUS OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT SLIGHTLY
EASTWARD FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS SOUTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
OF EASTERN KANSAS. AS THE CLOSED OFF LOW DEVELOPS TO OUR NORTH, AN
UPPER LEVEL JET CORE WILL ENTER THE TROUGH AXIS THEN NOSE NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO SOUTHERN KANSAS PROVIDING FAVORABLE
DYNAMIC SUPPORT ALOFT. NEAR THE SURFACE, THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
AND ASSOCIATED DRYLINE IN WESTERN KANSAS WILL BEGIN PUSHING SLOWLY
EASTWARD SETTING UP INCREASED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ACROSS CENTRAL
AND EASTERN KANSAS. AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG WITH SUBSTANTIAL
INSTABILITY (CAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 3000 J/KG) AND STEEPENING
LAPSE RATES, WILL SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG AND AHEAD
OF THE DRYLINE THIS AFTERNOON. THE QUESTION IS HOW FAR EAST THE
DRYLINE ADVANCES BEFORE STORMS INITIATE. STILL, THUNDERSTORMS ARE
LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS AND EASTWARD THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH THE BEST CHANCES EAST OF A HAYS TO
COLDWATER LINE.

BEHIND THE DRYLINE...SLIGHTLY COOLER MID LEVEL AIR ADVECTING SOUTH
INTO WESTERN KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON WILL ENFORCE STEEPER MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY WILL BE MARGINAL WITH CAPE VALUES
GRADUALLY DECREASING BELOW 1000 J/KG THROUGHOUT THE DAY, ENOUGH
DYNAMICS ALOFT WILL BE PRESENT TO SUPPORT POTENTIAL SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AS THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE UPPER
LEVEL JET SETS UP ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON.
WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED BUT ANY STORM THAT
DEVELOPS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL TO QUARTER SIZE HAIL
AND GUSTY WINDS UP TO 50 MPH.

COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TODAY AS THE SURFACE LOW IN WESTERN
KANSAS DRIFTS FURTHER EAST TURNING WINDS NORTHWESTERLY THIS
AFTERNOON. SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR IS EXPECTED TO FILTER SOUTH INTO
WESTERN KANSAS WITH H85 TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID TEENS(C)
ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND CENTRAL KANSAS TO NEAR 20C ALONG THE
OKLAHOMA BORDER. WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES DEVELOPING IN THE LOWER
LEVELS BEHIND THE DRYLINE, LOOK FOR HIGHS UP INTO THE MID TO UPPER
70S(F) ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS TO THE UPPER 80S(F) TO NEAR 90F
IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. EXPECT SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES FROM
THIS MORNING GOING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS DOWN INTO THE 50S(F).

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

A BLOCKY FLOW REGIME WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE UNITED STATES FOR MOST
OF THIS WEEK. HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE IN MANITOBA AND
SASKATCHEWAN AS WARM AIR FLOWS INTO CANADA AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONE THAT IS CLOSING OFF OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO. ANOTHER
VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EVIDENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY NEAR THE
NEVADA/OREGON BORDER WILL DIG SOUTHEAST AROUND THE CENTRAL UNITED
STATES GYRE AND APPROACH THE TEXAS PANHANDLE MONDAY, AND YET ANOTHER
TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE STRONG POLAR JET WILL MOVE INTO WEST TEXAS
TUESDAY. RIDGING AROUND 150-160W IN ADVANCE OF A DEEP TROUGH WEST OF
THE DATELINE WILL SUPPORT AMPLIFICATION OF TROUGHING IN THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, AND THE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE IN THE
CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY FINALLY WILL EJECT TOWARD THE GREAT
LAKES WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD IN THE CENTRAL PART
OF THE COUNTRY WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IN
EASTERN CANADA WILL RETROGRADE TO NEAR JAMES BAY LATE THIS WEEK, AND
A COOL CANADIAN AIR MASS WILL INVADE THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS AREA OF
COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL ENHANCE BAROCLINICITY IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS,
AND AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF MOIST SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL DEVELOP ON THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SURFACE RIDGE. MOIST SOUTHEAST FLOW INTO
EASTERN COLORADO WILL FAVOR DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THE
THUNDERSTORMS SUBSEQUENTLY WILL PROPAGATE INTO KANSAS AND PROVIDE
SEVERAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAINFALL LATE THIS WEEK.

THE NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH EVOLUTION OF
THE ATMOSPHERE THROUGH MID WEEK, BUT THE ECMWF IS QUICKER TO BREAK
DOWN THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES RIDGE NEXT WEEKEND THAN THE GFS.
THERE IS LITTLE SKILL IN FORECASTING SYNOPTIC SCALE DETAILS THAT FAR
IN THE FUTURE, BUT THE SLOWER GFS SOLUTION SEEMS MORE REASONABLE
GIVEN THE PROPENSITY OF THE ATMOSPHERE TO MAINTAIN A BLOCKY PATTERN
THIS MONTH. WITH A HUGE POOL OF VERY WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE
PACIFIC AROUND 150W, THE ATMOSPHERE IS LIKELY TO TEND TOWARD A
PATTERN FAVORING RIDGING IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC, A TROUGH IN THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND A RIDGE IN THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY FOR
AT LEAST THE REST OF MAY.

UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL CONTINUE IN THE CENTRAL
PLAINS MONDAY, AND MODEST MID LEVEL INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT
DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED HIGH BASED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A
TROUGH ROTATING AROUND THE NEBRASKA UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE WILL SUPPORT
A REINFORCING SURGE OF COLD AIR THAT WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN KANSAS
MONDAY. CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY WILL ENHANCE THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. A FEW DIURNALLY
MODULATED SHOWERS MAY OCCUR TUESDAY IN NORTHERN KANSAS AS ANOTHER
MINOR WAVE ROTATES AROUND THE GYRE CENTERED NEAR THE NEBRASKA/SOUTH
DAKOTA BORDER. MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL WARM WEDNESDAY AS THE
COLD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE PROPAGATES EAST, AND CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL
BE MINIMAL.

INCREASING SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL FAVOR
DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS IN EASTERN COLORADO THAT WILL SPREAD
INTO KANSAS DURING THE NIGHTTIME HOURS. A SIMILAR PATTERN IS LIKELY
TO EVOLVE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. BY FRIDAY NIGHT, THE ELEVATED
MIXED LAYER MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH IN WESTERN KANSAS TO SHIFT THE
FAVORED AREA FOR NOCTURNAL THUNDERSTORMS INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND
NORTHERN KANSAS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1152 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
WESTERN KANSAS. HOWEVER, WITH AMPLE MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND MID
LEVEL COOLING THERE COULD BE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. I HAVE PLACED A VCSH IN THE TAFS TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD END BY 00Z. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE FROM THE NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS DECREASING TO 5
TO 10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  83  52  79  50 /  30  20  30  20
GCK  82  50  77  49 /  40  20  30  20
EHA  83  50  77  49 /  20  20  30  20
LBL  85  50  78  50 /  30  20  30  20
HYS  83  52  77  50 /  40  20  30  20
P28  88  57  82  55 /  40  20  20  20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJOHNSON
SHORT TERM...JJOHNSON
LONG TERM...RUTHI
AVIATION...HOVORKA_42