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000
FXUS63 KDDC 150721
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
221 AM CDT SAT JUN 15 2013

...UPDATED LONG TERM SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 147 AM CDT SAT JUN 15 2013

AN UPPER LEVEL, SMALL SCALE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM THE
TEXAS PANHANDLE NORTH INTO WESTERN KANSAS THIS MORNING.  AT THE SAME
TIME, A SURFACE TROUGH WILL FORM NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER. THESE
TWO FEATURES ARE ENOUGH TO WARRANT SMALL PRECIPITATION CHANCES,
FIRST IN OUR SOUTHERN ZONES ALONG THE OKLAHOMA BORDER, AND THEN AS
THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO CENTRAL KANSAS, THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY INTO THE CHANCE CATEGORY, MAINLY EAST OF
HIGHWAY 183. THE CAPE WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED, BUT THERE COULD BE
ENOUGH MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND UPPER LEVEL SHEAR TO PRODUCE A
FEW SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON.  WILL GO ON THE LIGHT SIDE OF
SEVERE IN THE HWO, AS THERE IS NOT STRONG UPPER SUPPORT FOR
STRONG STORMS.  THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE
IN THE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, WHEN THE SURFACE TROUGH CROSSES INTO
CENTRAL KANSAS, AND THE UPPER WAVE IS EXITING TOWARD NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS. DO NOT EXPECT TOO MUCH RAINFALL FROM ANY OF TODAY`S
STORMS, AS THE DEW POINTS WILL ONLY REACH THE MIDDLE 50S TO LOWER
60S. AS FOR TEMPERATURES, THE EXISTING MAX TEMPS LOOKED
REASONABLE, RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE 80S TO THE MIDDLE 90S.
FURTHER, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN UP LATE THIS MORNING,
CAUSING SURFACE WINDS TO INCREASE INTO THE BREEZY TO WINDY RANGE,
FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AND LASTING INTO THE EVENING.

TONIGHT, THE UPPER WAVE WILL HAVE NOT EXITED OUR FORECAST AREA AND
WILL PROVIDE SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
A FEW OF THE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING COULD BE SEVERE, BUT WILL
NOT MENTION THAT IN THE PRECIPITATION TYPE, AS WIDESPREAD SEVERE
STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED.  WINDS WILL DROP OFF AFTER SUNDOWN TO THE
10 TO 12 MPH RANGE. WITH THE SCATTERED RAINFALL, LOW TEMPERATURES
SHOULD ONLY FALL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AFTERNOON DEW POINTS, RANGING
FROM THE MID 60S NORTHWEST OF A WAKEENEY TO JOHNSON CITY LINE, AND
TO THE LOWER 70S SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM ASHLAND TO PRATT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 AM CDT SAT JUN 15 2013

AN ACTIVE PATTERN IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND INTO THE FIRST HALF OF
NEXT WEEK AS A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVE AROUND THE
PERIPHERY OF A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE POSITIONED
ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL BRING
CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY AS MODELS DEPICT AN MCS TO DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN
COLORADO AND MOVE ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. SPC HAS PLACED A SLIGHT
RISK OF SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE AREA FOR SUNDAY WITH LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE MAIN CONCERN. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY, MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. OTHERWISE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL BE OBSERVED. WINDS
THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE EAST TO NORTHEAST
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY SHIFTING TO MORE OF A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. HIGHS DURING THIS PERIOD WILL GENERALLY BE IN
THE 80S WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SUNDAY WHERE LOWER 90S WILL BE FOUND
ACROSS THE KS/OK BORDER. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 60S.

A DRIER WEATHER PATTERN IS FORECASTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DIGGING INTO THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES. THIS TROUGH WILL IN TURN ALLOW LEE TROUGHING TO CONTINUE
ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS OBSERVED ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS. WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME FRAME WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S AND LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1148 PM CDT FRI JUN 14 2013

FOR THE TAF PERIOD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOUR, YOU CAN EXPECT VFR
FLIGHT CONDITIONS. THERE IS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING NORTHWARD
FROM WESTERN TEXAS. CIGS WILL START OUT IN THE CIRRUS RANGE,
GENERALLY IN THE BKN200 LEVEL. AS THE TROUGH ADVANCES NORTH AND
MOISTURE THICKENS, MID LEVEL CIGS IN THE BKN-OVC080-100 RANGE WILL
DEVELOP, MAINLY AFTER 00Z TONIGHT. SOME LIGHT RAIN IS ALSO MOVING
NORTH FROM TEXAS, BUT AM NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE THEM AS A
PREVAILING GROUP IN THE TAFS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  89  69  90  64 /  30  30  40  50
GCK  91  68  89  64 /  20  40  40  50
EHA  93  68  92  64 /  20  30  30  20
LBL  91  69  94  64 /  20  30  30  50
HYS  87  68  87  64 /  30  30  50  70
P28  87  71  92  68 /  40  30  50  90

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$


SHORT TERM...BURKE
LONG TERM...HOVORKA_42
AVIATION...BURKE