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000
FXUS63 KDDC 141952
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
252 PM CDT TUE MAY 14 2013

...UPDATE TO SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 931 AM CDT TUE MAY 14 2013

THE 14.12Z 250 HPA RAOB MAP SHOWED TWO JETS ACROSS NORTH AMERICA. THE
POLAR JET WAS LOCATED ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF UNITED STATES
AND INTO CANADA. THE STRONGEST WINDS WERE LOCATED FROM NOVA SCOTIA AND
INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WITH MAGNITUDES AROUND 180 KT. NEXT, THE
SUBTROPICAL JET WAS LOCATED FARTHER SOUTH WITH HIGHEST MAGNITUDES AROUND
90 KT ACROSS FLORIDA. CLOSER TO KANSAS, FLOW WAS QUITE WEAK AT 15 KT. AT
500 HPA, A TROF WAS MOVING ONSHORE ACROSS CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. DAMPENING
SHORTWAVE RIDGING WAS DOWNSTREAM OF THIS FEATURE ACROSS THE 4 CORNERS
REGION. A WEAK LOW WAS LOCATED ACROSS PORTIONS OF MEXICO. A SHORTWAVE
TROF WAS MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL CANADIAN PRAIRIES. AN ELONGATED TROF
WAS LOCATED ACROSS THE NE U.S. AND SE CANADA. AT 700 HPA, TEMPERATURES
ACROSS SW KANSAS WERE FAIRLY WARM (10 DEG C). AT 850 HPA, 25 DEG C AT
KDDC WAS SLIGHTLY UNDER THE +2 STANDARD DEVIATION STATISTICAL MARK.
AT THE SFC, A COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
A SURFACE LEE TROF WAS LOCATED ACROSS FAR WESTERN KANSAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT TUE MAY 14 2013

TONIGHT:

EARLY AFTERNOON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A FIELD OF CUMULUS HUMILIS
CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHWEST KANSAS. THESE CLOUDS ARE IN ASSOCIATION WITH
A LEE SURFACE TROF ACROSS NORTHWEST KANSAS AND WEAK INSTABILITY. RAP
AND HRRR KEEPS THIS ACTIVITY NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY
THROUGH TONIGHT. I HAVE 14 PERCENT PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES IN THE
GRIDS THROUGH EARLY EVENING ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS. OTHERWISE, TONIGHT
WILL BE CLEAR AND PRECIPITATION FREE. LEE TROUGHING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. SOUTHERLY WINDS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS FEATURE
WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS WELL. THESE WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
MILD WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S DEG F.

TOMORROW:

ON WEDNESDAY, A LEE INDUCED LOW/TROF ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO WILL DEEPEN
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL CAUSE A WARM FRONT TO LIFT NORTHWARD
ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN KANSAS. HIGHS TOMORROW IN THE WARM SECTOR
WILL BE WARM TO HOT AGAIN WITH HIGHS IN THE 86-91 DEG F RANGE. RAMPED
UP POPS IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN WHERE CONVECTION
WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AS MODELS DIFFER WITH THE FRONT POSITION.
12Z NAM DEVELOPS THUNDERSTORMS FROM LIBERAL TO HAYS, WHILE 12Z GFS KEEPS
PRECIPITATION MAINLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 183. THE WRF-NMM ECHOES THE NAM
SOLUTION, WHERE THE WRF-ARW KEEPS THE REGION DRY. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY,
WILL LIMIT PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY.

IF THE NAM SOLUTION IS CORRECT WITH MOISTURE, MLCAPE LOOKS TO BE AROUND
1500-3000 J/KG, MAINLY ACROSS SC KANSAS. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR IS ON THE
WEAKER SIDE AT 30-35 KT. UPPER LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS VERY WEAK AT 15-30
KT. LCL`S WILL BE FAIRLY HIGH AS WELL. PUTTING THIS ALL TOGETHER, THE
OVERALL THREAT FOR HIGH END SEVERE WEATHER IS VERY LOW. THE MAIN THREAT
TOMORROW IS MARGINAL HAIL SIZE PERHAPS UP TO QUARTERS AND 50-60 MPH
OUTFLOW FROM THUNDERSTORMS.

LASTLY, LESS FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS
SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND RESULTANT HIGHER RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE
EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT TUE MAY 14 2013

.THROUGH FRIDAY...

AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AS A FEW DISTURBANCES MOVE THROUGH THE PLAINS.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE MOVING ACROSS KANSAS AS THE LONG TERM
PERIOD BEGINS ON WEDNESDAY WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING
ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS ON THURSDAY. TOWARDS THE SURFACE, A COLD
FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS NEBRASKA AND INTO NORTHERN
KANSAS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE BECOMING STATIONARY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. MEANWHILE, A DRYLINE WILL FORM ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS IN THE
AFTERNOON. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM IN THE LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE
EARLY EVENING. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL AND WEST CENTRAL KANSAS IN THE
EVENING. SKIES WILL GENERALLY BE PARTLY CLOUDY DURING THE DAY
BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN KANSAS DURING THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. ALTHOUGH, FAR WESTERN KANSAS SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY
CLEAR THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND NIGHT. WINDS WEDNESDAY WILL GENERALLY
BE FROM A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION DURING THE DAY BECOMING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THEN MOVES BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON
THURSDAY WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. A DRYLINE
WILL REMAIN PERSISTENT ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS AND MAY ALLOW FOR AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO TO FORM EAST OF HIGHWAY 83 THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY PERISH SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET
GIVEN ABSENCE OF LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT. ALSO, A FEW MODELS
SUGGEST A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS OR A MCS TO MOVE ACROSS NEBRASKA
OR NORTHERN KANSAS. THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED IN CASE FUTURE
MODELS PLACE THIS CHANCE FARTHER SOUTH.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE PLAINS FRIDAY WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. THERE WILL ONCE
AGAIN BE A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS IN THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, AN EML
BECOMES MORE PREVALENT AND MAY CAP ANY CONVECTION FROM OCCURRING.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL BE FOUND ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS WITH A FEW
CUMULUS CLOUDS IN THE AFTERNOON.

.THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...

SATURDAY CONTINUES TO BE THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION, BUT ONCE
AGAIN GENERALLY CONFINED TO CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. THIS
IS DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SPINNING INTO THE
ROCKIES AND AN UPPER LEVEL JET NOSING INTO WESTERN KANSAS. TOWARDS
THE SURFACE, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND DRYLINE WILL INTENSIFY
ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH GIVEN THE INCREASED LARGER SCALE UPWARD
VERTICAL MOTION TO PROMOTE A FEW SEVERE STORMS. MID RANGE MODELS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF THIS LOW WITH
ENOUGH WIND SHEAR TO PROMOTE SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT. THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE ACROSS THIS AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING BUT
SHOULD BECOME LESS INTENSE DUE TO THE LACK OF DAYTIME HEATING. A
COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY SHIFTING
WINDS TO MORE OF A NORTHERLY DIRECTION. DRIER CONDITIONS ARE THEN
SUGGESTED BY THE LONG RANGE MODELS DURING THE FIRST PART OF NEXT
WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES
AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA.

.TEMPERATURES...

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 80S WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WHERE 90S WILL BE POSSIBLE.
LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER 60S WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FAR
WESTERN KANSAS WHERE UPPER 50S WILL BE POSSIBLE. MODELS SUGGEST A
SLIGHT COOL DOWN BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S
AND LOW 80S WITH LOWS IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT TUE MAY 14 2013

VFR CIGS EXPECTED THROUGH PD. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS 18-23 KT WILL CONTINUE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENTUALLY BACK SOUTHERLY 10-15 KT BY DUSK.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  60  89  60  85 /   0  20  10  20
GCK  58  92  59  86 /  10  10  10  20
EHA  56  91  58  89 /   0  10  10  10
LBL  57  92  60  88 /   0  10  10  10
HYS  59  90  60  84 /  10  20  20  30
P28  63  86  63  83 /   0  20  20  20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ043>045-
062>064-075>078-084>088.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SUGDEN
SHORT TERM...SUGDEN
LONG TERM...HOVORKA_42
AVIATION...SUGDEN