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000
FXUS63 KDDC 140653
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
153 AM CDT TUE MAY 14 2013

...UPDATED FOR THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 121 AM CDT TUE MAY 14 2013

AS WARM HIGH PRESSURE EDGES IN FROM THE WEST TODAY, THIS TUESDAY
WILL BE ANOTHER HOT DAY.  THE MAIN DIFFERENCE FROM MONDAY, IS THERE
WILL BE QUITE A STRONG SOUTHWEST WIND DEVELOP AFTER ABOUT 15Z.  THIS
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL USHER IN EVEN MORE WARM AIR FROM NEW MEXICO.  AT
850MB AT 14/00Z, THERE WAS A BATCH OF +28C DEGREE AIR OVER WYOMING,
COLORADO, UTAH, AND NORTHERN ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO.  THIS IS ABOUT
+4C TO +5C DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY, AT 13/00Z.  SO, I EXPECT
PARTS OF THE WEST AND NORTHERN PARTS OF MY FORECAST AREA TO BE
EVEN WARMER BY 1 TO 2 DEGREES THAN MAX TEMPS HIT YESTERDAY. ON
MONDAY, A FEW RECORD MAX TEMPERATURES WERE APPROACHED TO WITHIN 1
TO 2 DEGREES, BUT A QUICK LOOK AT THE RECORDS FOR TODAY SHOWED
RECORDS LEVELS WERE EVEN HIGHER. FOR INSTANCE FOR MAY 14TH, DDC
RECORD IS 97F SET IN 1899 AND 1941; GCK 96 IN 1963; AND P28 97 IN
1899.  SO, EVEN THOUGH A FEW RECORDS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE SCOTT
CITY AND WAKEENEY AREAS, WILL NOT MENTION RECORDS IN THE ZFP
PRODUCT.  INSTEAD, A RED FLAG WARNING WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED.  LOW
SINGLE DIGIT RH`S WERE REACHED MONDAY AFTERNOON, AND WOULD EXPECT
THE SAME THIS AFTERNOON.  THERE IS A STRONG SURFACE TROUGH THAT
SHOULD BE FROM NORTHWEST KANSAS INTO SOUTHEAST COLORADO TODAY,
RESULTING IN A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. WITH
THE WINDS EXPECTED TO BE FROM THE SOUTHWEST AT 20 MPH GUSTING TO
30 MPH, AND WITH THE COMBINATION OF LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES, RED
FLAG CONDITIONS SEEM VERY LIKELY.  WILL EXPIRE THE RFW AT 01Z,
WHEN WINDS SHOULD START TO SUBSIDE.

TONIGHT, NOT TOO MANY CLOUDS ARE FORESEEN, JUST PERHAPS A FEW HIGH
LEVEL CIRRUS CLOUDS PASSING THROUGH. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHEAST AT AROUND 10 MPH IN MOST PLACES. THERE WILL BE A COLD FRONT
NUDGING AT OUR NORTHWEST FORECAST AREA BY 12Z TUESDAY, AND WINDS
IN THE WAKEENEY TO SCOTT CITY TO SYRACUSE AREAS WILL SHIFT
NORTHEAST AT 8 TO 10 MPH LATE TONIGHT. I DID NOT CHANGE MINIMUMS
FOR TONIGHT, AND THEY SHOULD AVERAGE IN THE MID 50S ALONG THE
COLORADO BORDER, AND THE LOWER TO MID 60S IN THE PRATT AND
MEDICINE LODGE AREAS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT MON MAY 13 2013

ABOVE-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH NEARLY THE ENTIRE
FORECAST PERIOD THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. NOT MUCH CHANGE WAS
REQUIRED IN THE GOING TEMPERATURE FORECAST. THE HOTTEST DAY IN THE
PERIOD LOOKS TO BE SATURDAY AS DOWNSLOPE MOMENTUM WILL BE
STRONGEST...AND THUS A POTENTIALLY LARGER AREA OF DEEPLY MIXED, HOT
AIR ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. OTHERWISE...ALONG AND WEST OF THE DRYLINE
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL HAVE HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO
MID 90S...AND EAST OF THE DRYLINE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. THE
LATEST 12Z VERSION OF THE ECMWF SUGGESTS TEMPERATURES AS WARM AS 100
DEGREES ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE
DRYLINE.

IN THE PRECIPITATION DEPARTMENT...HAVE DECIDED TO TEMPER THE
PRECIPITATION FORECAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS
COUNTIES WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS (15 TO 20) INSTEAD OF THE
CHANCE 30 POPS ACROSS BARBER AND PRATT COUNTIES.  A SUBTROPICAL LOW
CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN MEXICO WILL DRIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS WHICH WILL INDUCE A GREATER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE SOUTHWEST KANSAS REGION.
NEVERTHELESS...A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS
WEDNESDAY WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE TO AID
IN CONVECTIVE INITIATION WHERE HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT WILL RESIDE
GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF A HAYS TO ASHLAND LINE. ANOTHER AREA TO
WATCH WEDNESDAY EVENING/NIGHT WILL BE OUT ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF
COLORADO AS ANOTHER SMALLER/WEAKER SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES THE
HIGH PLAINS.  THE GFS SHOWS A FAIRLY STRONG CONVECTIVE SIGNAL
WEDNESDAY NIGHT DUE TO ITS HIGHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTENT AND IS
LIKELY OVERDONE...BUT AT THE SAME TIME THE ECMWF DRY FORECAST MAY BE
A BIT TOO PESSIMISTIC GIVEN THE SMALL SCALE ENHANCEMENT IN LIFT AND
SOME POST-FRONTAL UPSLOPE LOW LEVEL MOMENTUM (ENHANCED INFLOW INTO
CONVECTION).

LATE IN THE WEEK...THE DRYLINE WILL REMAIN A PERSISTENT DIURNAL
FEATURE WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED DRYLINE STORM EACH DAY
DUE TO CONVERGENCE AND STRONG INSOLATION.  ANY DIURNALLY DRIVEN
STORMS WILL LIKELY PERISH SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET GIVEN ABSENCE OF
LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT.  THE DRYLINE ON FRIDAY MAY BE MORE
DIFFICULT TO CONVECT AS HOT ELEVATED-MIXED LAYER AIR OFF THE NEW
MEXICO PLATEAU AND SIERRA MADRE OCCIDENTAL OF NORTHERN MEXICO REALLY
CAPS THINGS WITH INCREASED SOUTHWESTERLY LOWER-MID TROPOSPHERIC
MOMENTUM AHEAD OF A DEEP TROUGH.  POPS WERE LOWERED DOWN TO SLIGHT
CHANCE ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.

SATURDAY STILL LOOKS LIKE THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR ORGANIZED
STRONG-SEVERE CONVECTION AS A STRONG UPPER TROPOSPHERIC JET ENTERS
THE PICTURE AND INDUCES A 995MB SURFACE LOW OVER WEST-CENTRAL KANSAS
BY LATE IN THE DAY. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH
GIVEN THE INCREASED LARGER SCALE UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION TO PROMOTE
SEVERE LOCAL STORMS. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE A HIGH QUANTITY
OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE LOW WITH ENOUGH WIND SHEAR TO
PROMOTE ROBUST SUPERCELL STORMS.  THE TORNADO THREAT IS REALLY
UNCERTAIN...PARTICULARLY BEING A 5 DAY FORECAST...BUT IS SOMETHING
THAT WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY GIVEN LOWER TO MID 60S
DEWPOINTS IN THE PICTURE AND INCREASED LOW LEVEL SHEAR AROUND
SUNSET.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT MOST LIKELY SHIFTS EAST
OF THE SOUTHWEST KANSAS REGION...BUT WILL STILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE
POP IN ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS COUNTIES GIVEN TIMING
UNCERTAINTIES AT THIS FORECAST RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1157 PM CDT MON MAY 13 2013

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY, ALONG WITH HOT AND WINDY
CONDITIONS. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE QUICKLY AFTER 15Z AND
BLOW AT 18G28 KNOTS THROUGH SUNSET. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES TODAY
WILL TOP OUT IN THE MIDDLE 90S IN MOST LOCATIONS. A SURFACE TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE FROM NORTHWEST KANSAS INTO SOUTHEAST COLORADO WILL
RESULT IN A TIGHT PRESSURE ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 151 AM CDT TUE MAY 14 2013

CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AS
TEMPERATURES SOAR INTO THE MIDDLE 90S, SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE TO
20 TO 30 MPH AND GUSTY, AND RELATIVE HUMIDITIES FALL TO BELOW 15
PERCENT.  THE AREA WHICH LOOKS PRIME FOR RED FLAG CONDITIONS IS
BASICALLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 283. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE SOMEWHAT AFTER
SUNDOWN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  94  60  84  59 /  10  10  10  20
GCK  95  58  83  58 /  10  10  10  20
EHA  95  56  83  58 /  10  10  10  20
LBL  94  57  85  59 /  10  10  10  20
HYS  97  59  81  58 /  10  10  20  20
P28  92  63  84  62 /  10  10  20  20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
KSZ043>045-062>064-075>078-084>088.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BURKE
LONG TERM...UMSCHEID
AVIATION...BURKE
FIRE WEATHER...BURKE