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000
FXUS63 KDDC 161754
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1254 PM CDT THU MAY 16 2013

...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION FOR 18Z TAFS...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1100 PM CDT WED MAY 15 2013

WV IMAGERY AND 00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATE A CLOSED OFF UPPER
LEVEL LOW DRIFTING SLOWLY EAST ACROSS OKLAHOMA. MEANWHILE, AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS LIFTING EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN COLORADO.
MODEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS PRESENT ACROSS THE AREA WITH SURFACE
DEWPOINTS MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S(F) ACROSS CENTRAL AND MUCH
OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS. A FEW MID TO UPPER 40S(F) ARE OBSERVED NEAR AND
ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER IN FAR SOUTHWEST KANSAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT THU MAY 16 2013

AREAS OF FOG WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHWEST FROM SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS INTO EASTERN PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS THROUGH SUNRISE
THIS MORNING REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO LESS THAN 1 MILE IN SOME
LOCATIONS. THE FOG WILL THEN BEGIN TO DISSIPATE AFTER SUNRISE.

SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE THE CLOSED OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS
OKLAHOMA MOVING FURTHER EAST INTO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
TODAY. MEANWHILE, THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IN WESTERN COLORADO
WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES THIS
MORNING EJECTING OUT INTO THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON
BRINGING THE POSSIBILITY FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS SOUTHWARD, POTENTIALLY AS FAR AS EASTERN COLORADO
AND WESTERN KANSAS. HOWEVER, THE BULK OF THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY
WILL PASS JUST TO OUR NORTH THROUGH NEBRASKA WHILE THE FLOW ALOFT
REMAINS FAIRLY WEAK ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS. THIS WILL
KEEP THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP TO OUR NORTH AND NORTHWEST. STILL,
H85 DEWPOINTS UP AROUND 10C, FAIRLY STEEP LAPSE RATES, AND ENOUGH
INSTABILITY (CAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1,000 J/KG) WILL EXIST THAT
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON IN FAR
SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS AS A SHARPENING DRYLINE IN SOUTHEASTERN
COLORADO EDGES TOWARD THE KANSAS BORDER. THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
BETWEEN THE DRYLINE AND THE SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW MAY BE
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT CONVECTION IN THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. ANY
STORMS THAT MAY DEVELOP WOULD LIKELY BE ELEVATED WITH THE PRIMARY
THREAT BEING HAIL UP TO QUARTER SIZE AND GUSTY WINDS UP TO 55 MPH.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL TODAY AS A FAIRLY WARM AIR MASS
REMAINS ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS WITH H85 TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM
JUST ABOVE 15C ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS TO JUST ABOVE 25C NEAR THE
COLORADO BORDER. WITH DRY LAPSE RATES DEVELOPING IN THE LOWER
LEVELS BY THIS AFTERNOON, LOOK FOR HIGHS WELL UP INTO THE 80S(F)
ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS TO NEAR 90F IN FAR SOUTHWEST KANSAS.
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS
ADVECTING WARMER AIR NORTHWARD. EXPECT LOWS GENERALLY DOWN INTO
THE UPPER 50S(F) AND LOWER TO MID 60S(F).

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT THU MAY 16 2013

FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WILL SEE THE MID/UPPER FLOW TRANSITION TO A
MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN AS A STRONG WAVE DIGS INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST WHILE A DOWNSTREAM RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN GREAT PLAINS.
INCREASING WESTERLIES OVER THE ROCKIES, WILL ALLOW THE LEE TROUGH TO
GRADUALLY DEEPEN ON FRIDAY WITH A HINT OF A SMALL CLOSED CIRCULATION
FORMING OVER EASTERN COLORADO BY FRIDAY EVENING.  THIS WILL ALLOW A
WEAK WARM FRONTAL/DRYLINE STRUCTURE TO EXTEND SOUTHEAST FROM THIS
LOW INTO THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE/WESTERN OKLAHOMA AREAS. THE
SOUTHWEST MID TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER WESTERN KANSAS, WILL ALLOW
VERY WARM 700 HPA TEMPERATURES OF +12C TO +14C TO ADVECT OFF THE
HIGHER PLATEAU REGIONS OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. FURTHER, THESE
TEMPERATURES RESULT IN A SIGNIFICANT CAPPING ELEVATED MIXED LAYER
OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
ALTHOUGH HIGH INSTABILITY WILL EXIST BY FRIDAY EVENING AHEAD OF THE
WARM FRONT/DRYLINE, STRONG CAPPING AND ONLY MARGINAL CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE BOUNDARY, WILL INHIBIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. OTHERWISE,
INITIALLY FOR FRIDAY MORNING A NARROW BAND OF LOW-LEVEL ISENTROPIC
LIFT AND MODEST THETA/E ADVECTION WILL EXIST NORTH OF THE WEAK WARM
FRONTAL STRUCTURE. A CANOPY OF STRATUS SHOULD DEVELOP UNDER THIS
REGIME AND STRETCH OVER MOST OF SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL KANSAS
THROUGH MID MORNING BUT THEN SLOWLY ERODE OR SCATTER OUT TO A
SHALLOW CUMULUS FIELD BY AFTERNOON.  WITH STRONGER SOLAR INSOLATION
ANTICIPATED BY AFTERNOON, TEMPERATURES LOOK TO WARM INTO THE MID 80S
TO LOWER 90S.

THE FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TOWARD SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE
INITIAL UPPER TROUGH SWINGS EAST INTO THE GREAT PLAINS. THIS IS IN
RESPONSE TO A 100+ KNOT JET STREAK ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE WAVE,
CARVING OUT A CLOSED MID/UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. THE ARRIVAL OF THIS SYSTEM WILL FURTHER DEEPEN THE LEE
TROUGH AND ALLOW IT TO SLIP EASTWARD INTO WESTERN KANSAS AS A
DRYLINE BY LATE AFTERNOON.  SIMILAR TO FRIDAY, A STRONG ELEVATED
MIXED LAYER WILL EXIST TO START THE DAY WITH 700 HPA TEMPERATURES OF
+12C TO +14C EFFECTIVELY CAPPING THE ATMOSPHERE.  HOWEVER, AS THE
WAVE APPROACHES THE PLAINS BY LATE AFTERNOON, LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND
MID/UPPER LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE
90S, MAY ERODE ENOUGH OF THE CAP TO GENERATE ISOLATED CONVECTION.
BEST THREAT FOR CONVECTION WOULD BE GENERALLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 83
ALTHOUGH WOULD NOT BE SHOCKED IF NOTHING DEVELOPS. DESPITE
CLIMATOLOGY INDICATING A GOOD SEVERE THREAT DURING THIS TIME OF THE
YEAR, OVERALL SEVERE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL IS HIGHLY QUESTIONABLE AT THIS
POINT, MAINLY DUE TO STRONGER 6-12 KM WINDS REMAINING BEHIND THE
DRYLINE. NONETHELESS, SHEAR PROFILES ARE AT LEAST MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE FOR ROTATING UPDRAFTS AND CAN/T RULE OUT A THREAT FOR HAIL
UP TO HEN EGG IN SIZE.  THE OTHER PROBLEM FOR THE DAY WILL BE POTENTIAL
FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS BEHIND THE DRYLINE ACROSS
COUNTIES GENERALLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 83.  DEEP THERMAL MIXING BEHIND
THE DRYLINE WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S
COMBINING WITH DRY AIR TO PRODUCE MINIMUM HUMIDITY LEVELS OF 10-15
PERCENT FOR SEVERAL HOURS DURING THE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING.
THIS ALONG WITH WIND GUSTS ABOVE 25 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON MAY PRODUCE
RED FLAG CONDITIONS FOR A FEW HOURS ALTHOUGH AS THE DRYLINE RETREATS
WESTWARD, WIND SPEEDS NEAR THE TROUGH AXIS MAY BE TOO LOW TO MEET
RED FLAG CONDITIONS.  WILL PUNT THE ISSUANCE OF A FIRE WEATHER WATCH
TO THE DAY CREW.

SUNDAY IS THEN SHAPING UP TO BE A BUSY ONE OVER THE GREAT PLAINS AS
THE AFOREMENTIONED JET STREAK DIVES SOUTHEAST INTO THE BASE OF THE
UPPER TROUGH ALREADY SITTING OVER THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS.  THE
EXIT REGION OF THIS JET WILL INDUCE STRONG LOW-LEVEL CYCLOGENESIS
INITIALLY OVER WESTERN KANSAS SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE SURFACE LOW
AND ASSOCIATED PACIFIC FRONT/DRYLINE TRACKING EAST INTO CENTRAL
KANSAS BY LATE AFTERNOON.  UNLIKE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, ANY HINT OF A
CAPPING ELEVATED MIXED LAYER WILL BE SHUNTED WELL SOUTH OF KANSAS
WITH DEEP LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND RESULTANT HIGH INSTABILITY EXISTING
AHEAD OF THE PACIFIC FRONT/DRYLINE. HOWEVER, THE MAIN QUESTION IS
THE LOCATION OF THE DRYLINE AS SOME OF THE MODELS PUSH IT NEAR ICT
BEFORE DEVELOPING CONVECTION WHILE OTHERS ONLY PUSH THE BOUNDARY TO
ALONG A GREAT BEND TO MEDICINE LODGE LINE BEFORE CONVECTION DEVELOPS. IF
THE LATTER SOLUTION PLAYS OUT, SUPERCELLS AND VERY LARGE HAIL LOOK
POSSIBLE FOR AREAS ALONG HIGHWAY 281 SUNDAY AFTERNOON WHILE THE
FORMER SOLUTION WILL LEAVE THESE AREAS STABLE AND DRY. OTHERWISE, NO
MATTER WHERE THE DRYLINE/PACIFIC FRONT ARE OVER CENTRAL KANSAS BY
AFTERNOON, ANOTHER DAY OF ELEVATED TO POSSIBLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS WILL EXIST FOR MOST OF WESTERN KANSAS.

FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN ACTIVE OVER THE GREAT
PLAINS AS THE REMNANT CLOSED CIRCULATION FROM THE WEEKEND SYSTEM,
SLOWLY WOBBLES AROUND THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE PACIFIC FRONT
INITIALLY OVERTAKING THE DRYLINE AND THEN SURGING THROUGH KANSAS
SUNDAY NIGHT, WILL SUBSEQUENTLY STALL OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
HOWEVER, THIS NORTHERN POSITION OF THE LOW ESSENTIALLY LEAVES
SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL KANSAS COOLER BUT DRY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN
THE 70S.  MANY QUESTIONS THEN EXIST FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WITH
THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SAME SYSTEM AS SOME OF THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS
ATTEMPT TO WOBBLE THE LOW INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WHILE OTHERS SLOWLY
ABSORB IT BACK INTO THE NORTHERN STREAM.  CONFIDENCE IN ANY
PARTICULAR SOLUTION IS LOW AND WILL OPT TOWARD THE CONTINUED DRY AND
MILD TREND INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1249 PM CDT THU MAY 16 2013

A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHWEST KANSAS THIS EVENING IS
EXPECTED TO ROLL EAST-SOUTHEAST ALONG THE INTERSTATE-70
CORRIDOR...AFFECTING THE HAYS AREA SOME TIME DURING THE MID TO
LATE EVENING HOURS. WILL INSERT A TEMPO GROUP FOR THUNDER BASED ON
FAIRLY STRONG AGREEMENT AMONG THE VARIOUS SHORT TERM MESOSCALE
MODELS. OTHERWISE...VFR AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH A
SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 15 KNOTS. ANOTHER SURGE OF SUBSTANTIAL LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL MOVE NORTH DURING THE NIGHT...WITH LOW STRATUS
AND/OR AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPING AFTER ROUGHLY 10Z OR SO FRIDAY
MORNING. AFTER A FEW HOURS OF IFR OR WORSE CONDITIONS IN LOW
CEILING...CLOUDS WILL BURN OFF DUE TO INSOLATION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  85  60  87  64 /  10  10  10  10
GCK  87  58  89  63 /  10  20  10  10
EHA  90  57  91  61 /  20  30  10  10
LBL  88  58  92  63 /  10  20  10  10
HYS  83  60  85  65 /  10  20  10  10
P28  81  62  85  66 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJOHNSON
SHORT TERM...JJOHNSON
LONG TERM...AJOHNSON
AVIATION...UMSCHEID