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000
FXUS63 KDDC 142055
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
355 PM CDT TUE MAY 14 2013

...UPDATED LONG TERM SECTION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 931 AM CDT TUE MAY 14 2013

THE 14.12Z 250 HPA RAOB MAP SHOWED TWO JETS ACROSS NORTH AMERICA. THE
POLAR JET WAS LOCATED ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF UNITED STATES
AND INTO CANADA. THE STRONGEST WINDS WERE LOCATED FROM NOVA SCOTIA AND
INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WITH MAGNITUDES AROUND 180 KT. NEXT, THE
SUBTROPICAL JET WAS LOCATED FARTHER SOUTH WITH HIGHEST MAGNITUDES AROUND
90 KT ACROSS FLORIDA. CLOSER TO KANSAS, FLOW WAS QUITE WEAK AT 15 KT. AT
500 HPA, A TROF WAS MOVING ONSHORE ACROSS CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. DAMPENING
SHORTWAVE RIDGING WAS DOWNSTREAM OF THIS FEATURE ACROSS THE 4 CORNERS
REGION. A WEAK LOW WAS LOCATED ACROSS PORTIONS OF MEXICO. A SHORTWAVE
TROF WAS MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL CANADIAN PRAIRIES. AN ELONGATED TROF
WAS LOCATED ACROSS THE NE U.S. AND SE CANADA. AT 700 HPA, TEMPERATURES
ACROSS SW KANSAS WERE FAIRLY WARM (10 DEG C). AT 850 HPA, 25 DEG C AT
KDDC WAS SLIGHTLY UNDER THE +2 STANDARD DEVIATION STATISTICAL MARK.
AT THE SFC, A COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
A SURFACE LEE TROF WAS LOCATED ACROSS FAR WESTERN KANSAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT TUE MAY 14 2013

TONIGHT:

EARLY AFTERNOON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A FIELD OF CUMULUS HUMILIS
CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHWEST KANSAS. THESE CLOUDS ARE IN ASSOCIATION WITH
A LEE SURFACE TROF ACROSS NORTHWEST KANSAS AND WEAK INSTABILITY. RAP
AND HRRR KEEPS THIS ACTIVITY NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY
THROUGH TONIGHT. I HAVE 14 PERCENT PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES IN THE
GRIDS THROUGH EARLY EVENING ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS. OTHERWISE, TONIGHT
WILL BE CLEAR AND PRECIPITATION FREE. LEE TROUGHING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. SOUTHERLY WINDS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS FEATURE
WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS WELL. THESE WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
MILD WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S DEG F.

TOMORROW:

ON WEDNESDAY, A LEE INDUCED LOW/TROF ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO WILL DEEPEN
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL CAUSE A WARM FRONT TO LIFT NORTHWARD
ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN KANSAS. HIGHS TOMORROW IN THE WARM SECTOR
WILL BE WARM TO HOT AGAIN WITH HIGHS IN THE 86-91 DEG F RANGE. RAMPED
UP POPS IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN WHERE CONVECTION
WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AS MODELS DIFFER WITH THE FRONT POSITION.
12Z NAM DEVELOPS THUNDERSTORMS FROM LIBERAL TO HAYS, WHILE 12Z GFS KEEPS
PRECIPITATION MAINLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 183. THE WRF-NMM ECHOES THE NAM
SOLUTION, WHERE THE WRF-ARW KEEPS THE REGION DRY. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY,
WILL LIMIT PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY.

IF THE NAM SOLUTION IS CORRECT WITH MOISTURE, MLCAPE LOOKS TO BE AROUND
1500-3000 J/KG, MAINLY ACROSS SC KANSAS. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR IS ON THE
WEAKER SIDE AT 30-35 KT. UPPER LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS VERY WEAK AT 15-30
KT. LCL`S WILL BE FAIRLY HIGH AS WELL. PUTTING THIS ALL TOGETHER, THE
OVERALL THREAT FOR HIGH END SEVERE WEATHER IS VERY LOW. THE MAIN THREAT
TOMORROW IS MARGINAL HAIL SIZE PERHAPS UP TO QUARTERS AND 50-60 MPH
OUTFLOW FROM THUNDERSTORMS.

LASTLY, LESS FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS
SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND RESULTANT HIGHER RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE
EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 PM CDT TUE MAY 14 2013

PRECIPITATION CHANCES, SEVERITY, AND COVERAGE WILL BE CHALLENGES IN
THE FORECAST LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND...ALONG WITH AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES WITH DRYLINE POSITION UNCERTAINTY.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT:
A LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH (CURRENTLY SEEN ON WATER VAPOR
SPINNING ACROSS CENTRAL CALIFORNIA) WILL BE MOVING TOWARD THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS DURING THIS TIME FRAME.  A WEAK FRONT MOVING
INTO EAST-CENTRAL COLORADO AND WEST-CENTRAL KANSAS WILL BE THE FOCUS
FOR THUNDERSTORMS LATE AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY...BUT THIS FRONT WILL
DISSOLVE BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A SMALL...LOOSELY ORGANIZED AREA OF
CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING WAVE MAY HOLD TOGETHER AS IT
APPROACHES FAR WEST-CENTRAL KANSAS...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS VERY
LOW AND ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ARE WARRANTED AT THIS TIME. ON
THURSDAY...THERE IS A LOT OF DISAGREEMENT ON THE 850MB
THERMODYNAMICS/MOISTURE BETWEEN THE NCEP MODELS AND THE ECMWF MODEL.
THE GFS AND NAM SHOW COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE AND NEAR-SATURATED
RH AT 850MB THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY WHICH IS AFFECTING THE BOUNDARY
LAYER TEMPERATURES TO THE POINT THAT THE NCEP MODELS KEEP
TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. THE NCEP MODELS TEND TO
BE A BIT TOO AGGRESSIVE IN HOLDING ONTO STRATUS TOO LONG SO THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR HIGHS THURSDAY WILL REFLECT MORE CLOSELY THE
ECMWF MODEL.

A DRYLINE WILL NO DOUBT BE A PREVAILING FEATURE, HOWEVER, WHICH
SHOULD FOCUS A FEW ISOLATED STORMS BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING...ESPECIALLY SINCE THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW AMPLITUDE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE PASSING JUST TO THE NORTH AIDING IN SOME
SLIGHT MID LEVEL COOLING AND OVERALL SLIGHT ENHANCEMENT OF DEEP
TROPOSPHERIC UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION.  MID LEVEL FLOW AT THE BASE OF
THIS TROUGH AXIS OF 25 TO 35 KNOTS (500MB) ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS
WILL PROVIDE THE NECESSARY SHEAR ALONG WITH SOUTH-SOUTHEAST BOUNDARY
LAYER FLOW FOR SUPERCELL STORMS (ALONG WITH THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60
DEWPOINTS AT THE SURFACE).  ANY THUNDERSTORMS LATE THURSDAY/THURSDAY
EVENING SHOULD DISSOLVE AFTER SUNSET AS INSOLATION GOES AWAY AND THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXITS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY:
A MUCH MORE IMPRESSIVE PACIFIC JET WILL ENTER THE SOUTHWEST/GREAT
BASIN REGION DURING THIS TIME FRAME...ENTERING THE ROCKIES AND
WESTERN PLAINS SATURDAY. THE DRYLINE WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR
THUNDERSTORMS BOTH OF THESE DAYS...BUT SATURDAY WILL BE THE BETTER
DAY OF THE TWO FOR MORE ORGANIZED SUPERCELL STORMS GIVEN THE GREATER
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE EXPECTED ALONG THE DRYLINE NEAR AND JUST SOUTH
OF THE SURFACE LOW. WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS NORTH OF A DIGHTON TO
LACROSSE LINE WHERE THE FORECAST SURFACE LOW WILL BE PER THE ECMWF
MODEL. SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OF THE SURFACE LOW...HOT TEMPERATURES
WILL BE FOUND OVER A LARGER AREA THAN PREVIOUS DAYS WITH SOME UPPER
90S EVEN POSSIBLE.

SUNDAY AND BEYOND:
THE INITIAL JET STREAK WILL LIFT NORTH INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
LEADING TO THE FORMATION OF AN UPPER LOW...HOWEVER AN ENERGETIC JET
WILL STILL REMAIN ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
WHICH COULD LEAD TO DEVELOPMENT OF A SECONDARY LOW LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WERE INCLUDED THROUGH THE ALLBLEND
GUIDANCE ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY GIVEN THE PROSPECTS OF SOME POTENTIAL
POST-FRONTAL CONVECTION ROLLING EAST OFF THE EASTERN COLORADO
TERRAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT TUE MAY 14 2013

VFR CIGS EXPECTED THROUGH PD. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS 18-23 KT WILL CONTINUE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENTUALLY BACK SOUTHERLY 10-15 KT BY DUSK.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  60  89  60  86 /   0  20  20  10
GCK  58  92  59  88 /  10  10  10  20
EHA  56  91  58  92 /   0  10  10  20
LBL  57  92  60  92 /   0  10  10  10
HYS  59  90  60  83 /  10  20  20  10
P28  63  86  63  84 /   0  20  20  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ043>045-
062>064-075>078-084>088.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SUGDEN
SHORT TERM...SUGDEN
LONG TERM...UMSCHEID
AVIATION...SUGDEN