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000
FXUS63 KDDC 130826
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
326 AM CDT MON MAY 13 2013

...UPDATED FOR THE LONG TERM DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 213 AM CDT MON MAY 13 2013

TRANQUIL WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED TODAY AND TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE PLAINS. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL BE
LOCATED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES WITH A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE POSITIONED ACROSS THE KS/CO BORDER. THIS WILL ALLOW
SOUTHWEST WINDS TO BE FELT ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS TODAY THROUGH
TONIGHT. THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN WILL BE FAIRLY DRY DURING THE SHORT
TERM PERIOD LEADING TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS.
SURFACE RH`S BELOW 20 PERCENT WILL BE FELT WEST OF HIGHWAY 283 THIS
AFTERNOON INCREASING FIRE DANGER. HOWEVER, WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW
RED FLAG CRITERIA. NEVERTHELESS, OUTDOOR BURNING IS NOT RECOMMENDED.
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO THE
DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT OF THE WIND AND 850 MB TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER
TO MID 20S (C). LOWS TONIGHT ARE FORECASTED TO DIP INTO THE LOWER
60S WITH THE EXCEPTION OF WEST CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE UPPER 50S WILL
BE POSSIBLE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT MON MAY 13 2013

TUESDAY SHOULD BE HOT AND WINDY WITH DRY AIR PUNCHING NORTH INTO
FAR WESTERN KANSAS BY THE AFTERNOON. FOR THESE REASONS, I POSTED
AT FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR TUESDAY FROM 17Z TO 01Z, WEST OF HIGHWAY
83, BUT NOT INCLUDING HAMILTON AND STANTON COUNTIES. THINK THE
AFTERNOON SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE TOO CLOSE TO SYRACUSE AND JOHNSON
CITY FOR ANY WIND GUSTS TO 25 MPH. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL SOAR
INTO THE MIDDLE 90S TO PERHAPS UPPER 90S IN THE SCOTT CITY TO HAYS
AREAS, AND TO THE LOWER 90S IN OUR SOUTHEAST ZONES NEAR BARBER
COUNTY.

IN THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE, AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WAVE WILL
APPROACH FROM THE SOUTH OR THE SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY MORNING,
BRINGING SOME SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. WE
HAD 30 POPS FOR THUNDERSTORMS GOING IN OUR 3 FAR SOUTHEAST
COUNTIES OF PRATT, BARBER AND COMANCHE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, AND
THOSE CHANCE POPS WILL EXTEND INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS WELL. THE
CONSALL MODEL PROCEDURE SHIFTED THE POPS INTO MY NORTHERN ZONES
FROM SCOTT CITY TO LA CROSSE TO HAYS THURSDAY. THURSDAY NIGHT
LOOKS TO HAVE A BREAK IN ANY POPS, BEFORE ANOTHER MINOR WAVE
CROSSES THROUGH THE ZONAL FLOW ON FRIDAY.  20 TO 30 PERCENT POPS
WILL COVER ABOUT THE EASTERN HALF OF OUR FORECAST AREA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON, SHIFTING TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT. A DRY-
LINE WILL BE SETTING UP AND ADVANCING EAST EACH DAY, FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY, SO LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL EXIST IN OUR EXTREME
EASTERN COUNTIES SATURDAY AFTERNOON, AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY. THERE IS
ALSO COLD FRONT WHICH SHOULD BE JUST NORTH OF I-70 ON SAT AND
SUNDAY, IF THE DRY-LINE INTERACTS WITH THE FRONT, SOME SEVERE
WEATHER COULD BE POSSIBLE. A LARGER SCALE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE
IN FROM THE WEST SUNDAY, HELPING TO DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE.

AFTER A HOT AND NEARLY RECORD HOT DAY TUESDAY, WEDNESDAY WILL TAMPER
DOWNWARD TO HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S.  CLOUDS, PERHAPS SOME
RAIN AND WINDS TURNING TO THE EAST WILL BRING AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES DOWN FROM THE MON AND TUE MAX TEMPS. ZONAL FLOW
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL SEE TEMPERATURES REBOUND INTO THE UPPER
80S TO MIDDLE 90S, WITH A DOWNWARD TREND ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE ONLY IN THE LOWER 80S NEAR HAYS AND IN THE MIDDLE 80S DOWN
SOUTH ALONG THE OKLAHOMA BORDER. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIOD SHOULD RANGE IN THE MIDDLE 50S TO MIDDLE 60S, WITH
THE WARMEST MINS BEING DOWN IN THE BARBER, COMANCHE AND PRATT
COUNTIES AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1207 AM CDT MON MAY 13 2013

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE UNTIL SUNRISE THEN SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 KNOTS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  94  61  93  59 /   0   0  10  10
GCK  94  60  95  57 /   0   0  10  10
EHA  93  60  91  55 /   0   0  10  10
LBL  95  61  92  56 /   0   0  10  10
HYS  93  59  97  58 /   0   0  10  10
P28  90  61  92  62 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING FOR KSZ043-044-062-063-075>077-084>086.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HOVORKA_42
LONG TERM...BURKE
AVIATION...HOVORKA_42