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000
FXUS63 KDDC 161922
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
222 PM CDT THU MAY 16 2013

...UPDATE TO LONG TERM DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1100 PM CDT WED MAY 15 2013

WV IMAGERY AND 00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATE A CLOSED OFF UPPER
LEVEL LOW DRIFTING SLOWLY EAST ACROSS OKLAHOMA. MEANWHILE, AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS LIFTING EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN COLORADO.
MODEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS PRESENT ACROSS THE AREA WITH SURFACE
DEWPOINTS MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S(F) ACROSS CENTRAL AND MUCH
OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS. A FEW MID TO UPPER 40S(F) ARE OBSERVED NEAR AND
ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER IN FAR SOUTHWEST KANSAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT THU MAY 16 2013

AREAS OF FOG WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHWEST FROM SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS INTO EASTERN PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS THROUGH SUNRISE
THIS MORNING REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO LESS THAN 1 MILE IN SOME
LOCATIONS. THE FOG WILL THEN BEGIN TO DISSIPATE AFTER SUNRISE.

SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE THE CLOSED OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS
OKLAHOMA MOVING FURTHER EAST INTO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
TODAY. MEANWHILE, THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IN WESTERN COLORADO
WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES THIS
MORNING EJECTING OUT INTO THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON
BRINGING THE POSSIBILITY FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS SOUTHWARD, POTENTIALLY AS FAR AS EASTERN COLORADO
AND WESTERN KANSAS. HOWEVER, THE BULK OF THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY
WILL PASS JUST TO OUR NORTH THROUGH NEBRASKA WHILE THE FLOW ALOFT
REMAINS FAIRLY WEAK ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS. THIS WILL
KEEP THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP TO OUR NORTH AND NORTHWEST. STILL,
H85 DEWPOINTS UP AROUND 10C, FAIRLY STEEP LAPSE RATES, AND ENOUGH
INSTABILITY (CAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1,000 J/KG) WILL EXIST THAT
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON IN FAR
SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS AS A SHARPENING DRYLINE IN SOUTHEASTERN
COLORADO EDGES TOWARD THE KANSAS BORDER. THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
BETWEEN THE DRYLINE AND THE SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW MAY BE
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT CONVECTION IN THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. ANY
STORMS THAT MAY DEVELOP WOULD LIKELY BE ELEVATED WITH THE PRIMARY
THREAT BEING HAIL UP TO QUARTER SIZE AND GUSTY WINDS UP TO 55 MPH.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL TODAY AS A FAIRLY WARM AIR MASS
REMAINS ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS WITH H85 TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM
JUST ABOVE 15C ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS TO JUST ABOVE 25C NEAR THE
COLORADO BORDER. WITH DRY LAPSE RATES DEVELOPING IN THE LOWER
LEVELS BY THIS AFTERNOON, LOOK FOR HIGHS WELL UP INTO THE 80S(F)
ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS TO NEAR 90F IN FAR SOUTHWEST KANSAS.
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS
ADVECTING WARMER AIR NORTHWARD. EXPECT LOWS GENERALLY DOWN INTO
THE UPPER 50S(F) AND LOWER TO MID 60S(F).

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 222 PM CDT THU MAY 16 2013

SATURDAY:

ON SATURDAY, A NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL MOVE CLOSER TO
WESTERN KANSAS THROUGH THE EVENING. MID TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL INCREASE
THROUGH THE DAY, WHICH WILL CAUSE A LEE INDUCED LOW ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS
TO DEEPEN. ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SURFACE LOW WILL BE A SHARPENING DRYLINE
BISECTING THE FORECAST AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY. RECENTLY, SOME OF THE
GLOBAL MODELS HAVE TRENDED WITH THE MESOSCALE MODELS IN KEEPING THIS
DRYLINE FARTHER WEST THAN PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED. THE POSITION OF THE
DRYLINE IS CRITICAL BECAUSE CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG THIS MOISTURE
GRADIENT. DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S DEG F ARE EXPECTED EAST OF THE
DRYLINE WITH AN EXTREMELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS EXPECTED EAST OF THE DRYLINE
(4000-5000 J/KG OF SBCAPE). ONE CAVEAT TO THIS INSTABILITY AND POSSIBLE
CONVECTION IS WARM 700 HPA TEMPERATURES (12-13 DEG C). DESPITE THIS,
THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH SYNOPTIC FORCING/DIFFLUENT/LIFT FROM AN APPROACHING
250 HPA JET AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRYLINE TO INITIATE CONVECTION.
CURRENTLY, THINK THERE WILL BE TWO AREAS OF POSSIBLE CONVECTION LATE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ONE AREA ACROSS NW KANSAS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
SURFACE LOW AND BETTER UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT, AND A CONDITIONAL AREA ALONG
THE DRYLINE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF DODGE CITY. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR IS
FORECAST IN THE 20-30 KT RANGE, WHICH IS AT THE LOW END FOR SUPERCELLS.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS EAST OF THE DRYLINE DO SUPPORT THE IDEA OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY STEEP 800-500 HPA LAPSE RATES, LOW LEVEL VEERING
OF WINDS, HIGH VALUES CAPE IN THE HAIL GROWTH ZONE (-10 TO -30 DEG
C), AND MARGINAL WIND SHEAR IN THE 6 TO 10 KM LAYER. AS FAR AS TORNADOES
ARE CONCERNED, LCL`S SHOULD BE FAIRLY HIGH IN THE WARM/HOT AND MIXED
ATMOSPHERE, SO THE OVERALL THREAT SHOULD BE LOW. THE 12Z NAM SHOWS LOW
LEVEL SHEAR INCREASING VIA A LOW LEVEL JET AND 0-3 KM SRH INCREASING
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST ZONES AFTER 00Z SUNDAY. THIS IS REALLY A SECOND
HAND CONCERN, BUT IS SOMETHING TO WATCH AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE EVENT.
OVERALL, SATURDAY WILL PROBABLY BE ISOLATED REPORTS OF LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS.

IT SHOULD BE NOTED THERE IS LARGE UNCERTAINTY IN ALL THE AFOREMENTIONED
FEATURES AND EVEN IF THE CAP WILL BREAK. STAYED TUNED AS THIS IS A LOW
CONFIDENCE FORECAST AND PINPOINTING AREAS OF CONVECTION IS DIFFICULT.

THERE IS A CONCERN FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IN THE WAKE
OF THE DRYLINE SATURDAY. DUE TO THE WESTWARD TREND IN THE MODELS WITH
THE DRYLINE, WILL DEFER ANY FIRE WEATHER WATCH TO LATER SHIFTS.

LASTLY, HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 80S AND 90S (HOTTEST TEMPERATURES WEST
OF THE DRYLINE) AND LOWS HEADING INTO SUNDAY MORNING WILL VERY MILD
- 60S.

SUNDAY:

THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE
STATE ON SUNDAY. MODELS DIFFER AT THIS POINT. THE NAM STILL INDICATES
THE POSSIBILITY FOR CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION. THE GFS KEEPS PRECIPITATION
JUST TO OUR EAST. THE ECMWF INDICATES SOME CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTH
NEAR INTERSTATE 70. AT THE SFC, THE MODELS ARE DIFFERENT WITH THE DRYLINE
POSITION AS WELL. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY, WILL KEEP SLIGHT PRECIPITATION
VALUES IN THE GRIDS FOR NOW. WE COULD BE DRY SLOTTED/DRYLINED AND GET NOTHING
OR OUR EASTERN ZONES COULD SEE MORE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE DRYLINE. SEVERE WEATHER COULD STILL BE A POSSIBILITY GIVEN
THE COMBINATION OF CAPE/SHEAR FROM SOME OF THE MODELS. HIGHS WILL BE
IN THE 80S AND LOWS IN THE 50S/60S.

MONDAY AND BEYOND:

COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED MONDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S OR LOW
80S. SOME POST FRONTAL CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY BUT CONFIDENCE
IS VERY LOW. DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUESDAY ONWARDS AS THE SYNOPTIC
WAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION AND SHORTWAVE RIDGING DEVELOPS
IN THE WAKE OF THE WAVE. TEMPERATURES LOOK FAIRLY CLOSE TO SEASONAL
NORMS THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1249 PM CDT THU MAY 16 2013

A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHWEST KANSAS THIS EVENING IS
EXPECTED TO ROLL EAST-SOUTHEAST ALONG THE INTERSTATE-70
CORRIDOR...AFFECTING THE HAYS AREA SOME TIME DURING THE MID TO
LATE EVENING HOURS. WILL INSERT A TEMPO GROUP FOR THUNDER BASED ON
FAIRLY STRONG AGREEMENT AMONG THE VARIOUS SHORT TERM MESOSCALE
MODELS. OTHERWISE...VFR AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH A
SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 15 KNOTS. ANOTHER SURGE OF SUBSTANTIAL LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL MOVE NORTH DURING THE NIGHT...WITH LOW STRATUS
AND/OR AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPING AFTER ROUGHLY 10Z OR SO FRIDAY
MORNING. AFTER A FEW HOURS OF IFR OR WORSE CONDITIONS IN LOW
CEILING...CLOUDS WILL BURN OFF DUE TO INSOLATION.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  60  87  64  91 /  10  10  10  20
GCK  58  89  63  93 /  20  10  10  20
EHA  57  91  61  93 /  30  10  10  10
LBL  58  92  63  98 /  20  10  10  20
HYS  60  85  65  89 /  20  10  10  20
P28  62  85  66  90 /  10  10  10  20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJOHNSON
SHORT TERM...JJOHNSON
LONG TERM...SUGDEN
AVIATION...UMSCHEID