National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

000
FXUS63 KDDC 190750
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
250 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

...UPDATE TO SHORT TERM...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1025 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013

WV IMAGERY AND 00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATE A BROAD UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DRIFTING EASTWARD ACROSS THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN
REGION INTO THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. NEAR THE SURFACE, A STRONG
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS SITUATED ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS WITH AN
ATTENDANT DRYLINE EXTENDING SOUTHWARD INTO OKLAHOMA. SURFACE
DEWPOINTS AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE REACH WELL UP INTO THE 50S(F),
INCLUDING ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL KANSAS. DEWPOINTS ARE AS LOW AS
THE 20S(F) BEHIND THE DRYLINE NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES DEVELOPING INTO A CLOSED OFF LOW AS IT
MOVES EAST OUT INTO THE PLAINS OF SOUTH DAKOTA AND NEBRASKA TODAY.
THIS WILL SHIFT THE FOCUS OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT SLIGHTLY
EASTWARD FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS SOUTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
OF EASTERN KANSAS. AS THE CLOSED OFF LOW DEVELOPS TO OUR NORTH, AN
UPPER LEVEL JET CORE WILL ENTER THE TROUGH AXIS THEN NOSE NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO SOUTHERN KANSAS PROVIDING FAVORABLE
DYNAMIC SUPPORT ALOFT. NEAR THE SURFACE, THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
AND ASSOCIATED DRYLINE IN WESTERN KANSAS WILL BEGIN PUSHING SLOWLY
EASTWARD SETTING UP INCREASED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ACROSS CENTRAL
AND EASTERN KANSAS. AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG WITH SUBSTANTIAL
INSTABILITY (CAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 3000 J/KG) AND STEEPENING
LAPSE RATES, WILL SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG AND AHEAD
OF THE DRYLINE THIS AFTERNOON. THE QUESTION IS HOW FAR EAST THE
DRYLINE ADVANCES BEFORE STORMS INITIATE. STILL, THUNDERSTORMS ARE
LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS AND EASTWARD THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH THE BEST CHANCES EAST OF A HAYS TO
COLDWATER LINE.

BEHIND THE DRYLINE...SLIGHTLY COOLER MID LEVEL AIR ADVECTING SOUTH
INTO WESTERN KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON WILL ENFORCE STEEPER MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY WILL BE MARGINAL WITH CAPE VALUES
GRADUALLY DECREASING BELOW 1000 J/KG THROUGHOUT THE DAY, ENOUGH
DYNAMICS ALOFT WILL BE PRESENT TO SUPPORT POTENTIAL SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AS THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE UPPER
LEVEL JET SETS UP ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON.
WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED BUT ANY STORM THAT
DEVELOPS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL TO QUARTER SIZE HAIL
AND GUSTY WINDS UP TO 50 MPH.

COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TODAY AS THE SURFACE LOW IN WESTERN
KANSAS DRIFTS FURTHER EAST TURNING WINDS NORTHWESTERLY THIS
AFTERNOON. SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR IS EXPECTED TO FILTER SOUTH INTO
WESTERN KANSAS WITH H85 TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID TEENS(C)
ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND CENTRAL KANSAS TO NEAR 20C ALONG THE
OKLAHOMA BORDER. WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES DEVELOPING IN THE LOWER
LEVELS BEHIND THE DRYLINE, LOOK FOR HIGHS UP INTO THE MID TO UPPER
70S(F) ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS TO THE UPPER 80S(F) TO NEAR 90F
IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. EXPECT SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES FROM
THIS MORNING GOING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS DOWN INTO THE 50S(F).

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013

AS THE EXTENDED FORECAST STARTS OUT ON SUNDAY NIGHT, A DRY LINE WILL
BE WEAKENING ACROSS OUT FAR EASTERN CWA, AND THERE WILL BE 20
PERCENT POPS GOING FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FAR EASTERN TIER OF
COUNTIES AND THE NORTHEAST ZONES NEAR HAYS.  THE UPPER SUPPORT FOR
ANY CONVECTION WILL QUICKLY SUBSIDE AND CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL
CEASE BY 03Z MONDAY MORNING.  ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
ANOTHER 20 TO 30 PERCENT POP FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME FROM THE
WEST TO THE EAST ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS, AS AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES
INTO EASTERN KANSAS.  LATE MONDAY NIGHT, A COLD FRONT WILL SLIP
SOUTH INTO CENTRAL KANSAS, AND A SHOWER OR STORM COULD EASILY GET
TRIGGERED NORTH OF I-70 DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON OR EVENING.  ONLY
20 PERCENT CHANCES WILL BE THERE FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING
INTO TUESDAY.  THE NEXT PRECIPITATION CHANCE WILL COME ALONG
THURSDAY.  THAT UPPER WAVE IS FAIRLY STRONG AND BIG IN NATURE, SO
THURSDAY WILL HAVE 30 TO 40 PERCENT PRECIP CHANCES AND THOSE WILL
EXTEND CLEAR INTO SATURDAY. HARD TO SAY THIS EARLY IF ANY SEVERE
WEATHER WILL BE REALIZED, BUT THAT CAN BE MONITORED MORE CLOSELY
AS THE THURSDAY TO SATURDAY TIME PERIOD GETS CLOSER.

TEMPERATURES WILL GO THROUGH A COOL DOWN FROM SUNDAY INTO FRIDAY.
HIGHS WILL AVERAGE IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S THROUGH THE
SUNDAY INTO FRIDAY PERIOD. THE COOLEST DAY WILL PROBABLY BE
WEDNESDAY, AFTER THE COLD FRONT HAS PASSED. THEN ON SATURDAY, A
STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP AND HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE
UPPER 70S TO UPPER 80S. LOW TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED WILL
BE SEASONAL, RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH AT LEAST 08Z
THIS MORNING. AS MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS BEGIN TO SCATTER OUT TO THE
EAST, LOW LEVEL STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TOWARD DAYBREAK
ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS ALONG AND
AHEAD OF A DRYLINE EXTENDING FROM THE VICINITY OF KGCK SOUTHWARD
INTO OKLAHOMA. MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR CIGS MAY BE POSSIBLE MAINLY
EAST OF KGCK TOWARD SUNRISE. ANY LOW LEVEL STRATUS IS THEN
EXPECTED TO LIFT/SCATTER BY MID TO LATE MORNING RETURNING VFR
CONDITIONS TO ALL TAF SITES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  83  52  79  50 /  40  20  30  20
GCK  82  50  77  49 /  50  20  30  20
EHA  83  50  77  49 /  20  20  30  20
LBL  85  50  78  50 /  30  20  30  20
HYS  83  52  77  50 /  50  20  30  20
P28  88  57  82  55 /  30  20  20  20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJOHNSON
SHORT TERM...JJOHNSON
LONG TERM...BURKE
AVIATION...JJOHNSON