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000
FXUS63 KDDC 231738
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1238 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

AS EXPECTED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WAS GRADUALLY ADVECTING INTO MY
COUNTY WARNING AREA ON THE HEELS OF AN EASTERLY WIND. SURFACES
PRESSURES WILL CONTINUE TO FALL IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NEW MEXICO
AND COLORADO AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST
BEHIND A S/WV TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT AND EASTERLY COMPONENT ALL DAY. STRATUS,
ALTHOUGH NO NECESSARILY LOW, WILL DEVELOP OR ADVECT INTO THE MY
AREA LIMITING SOLAR INSOLATION. THUS TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE
COOLER THAN WHAT OCCURRED TUESDAY.

AS FOR PRECIPITATION...HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS HAD BEEN PERSISTENT
IN DEVELOPING ELEVATED SHOWERS BY SUNRISE BUT NOTHING IS SUPPORTED
BY CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. HOWEVER, LATER IN THE DAY AS UPSLOPE FLOW
CONTINUES AND AT LEAST SOME ISENTROPIC LIFTING OCCURS, THERE COULD
STILL BE A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM. TONIGHT IT APPEARS THAT A WEAK
MID-LEVEL JET STREAK WILL IMPINGE ON KANSAS AND ADDITIONAL CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

MOISTURE RETURN ALONG WITH 850MB WARM AIR ADVECTION AND I295-I305
ISENTROPIC LIFT CAN BE EXPECTED EARLY IN THE DAY ON FRIDAY NORTH OF
A WARM FRONT THAT WILL BE MOVING FROM THE PANHANDLE OF TEXAS INTO
SOUTHWEST KANSAS. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BRIEFLY END EARLY IN
THE DAY BUT BY LATE DAY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE WARM FRONT AND NEAR A DEEPENING
SURFACE LEE TROUGH. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATED LATE DAY MUCAPES IN
EXCESS OF 2000J/KG. 0-6KM SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE GREATER THAN 30KTS
SO ROTATING UPDRAFTS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM ANY STORM THAT DOES
DEVELOP FRIDAY EVENING. THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE WARM FRONT IS
STILL SOMEWHAT UNCLEAR FRIDAY AFTERNOON, HOWEVER ALL THE MODELS THIS
MORNING DO AGREE THAT NORTH OF THIS FRONT CLOUDS AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES CAN ARE EXPECTED. AT THIS TIME BASED ON THE NAM AND GFS
LOCATION OF THIS SURFACE FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 70S ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS WHILE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST
OF THIS WARM FRONT NEAR 90 DEGREES HIGHS WILL BE LIKELY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE WESTERN
UNITED STATES OVER THE WEEKEND PERIOD AS A SERIES OF SUBTLE UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE ROTATE AROUND THIS SYSTEM. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE
FOR LATE DAY THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN KANSAS ON
SATURDAY AND AGAIN SUNDAY AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE/DRYLINE REMAINS IN OR NEAR FAR WESTERN KANSAS AS ANY SUBTLE
DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. 850-700MB
TEMPERATURE TRENDS SUGGESTING HIGHS REBOUNDING BACK INTO THE 90S
BOTH DAYS ACROSS MOST OF WESTERN KANSAS.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE
WESTERN UNITED STATES UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE EAST. MODELS
THIS MORNING DIFFER ON HOW QUICKLY THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST AND AT
THIS TIME CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ON WHICH ON WILL BE MORE CORRECT.
AS A RESULT WILL STAY CLOSE TO PERSISTENCE AND CREXTENDFCST_INIT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1237 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

STRATUS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL
KANSAS AND COULD MIX OUT INTO A BROKEN VF/MVFR CUMULUS DECK
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO LOWER
MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR CATEGORIES AFTER 06Z TONIGHT ESPECIALLY AT
GARDEN CITY AND DODGE CITY. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
SOME THUNDERSTORMS COULD ALSO DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT. FOR NOW WILL
MENTION VCTS IN THE TAFS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  72  56  80  63 /  10  30  20  30
GCK  69  57  81  63 /  10  30  20  30
EHA  74  58  86  61 /  20  30  40  40
LBL  72  60  85  64 /  20  30  20  30
HYS  72  54  76  62 /  20  30  30  30
P28  73  55  78  65 /  20  30  30  30

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HUTTON
LONG TERM...BURGERT
AVIATION...GERARD