Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 051913
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
213 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 142 PM CDT Thu May 5 2016

Temperatures were rising faster than the forecast T curve early
this morning, and a change to the Experimental HRRR appears to
have captures the temperature forecast a little better in the
midday. It may be a couple of degrees overdone as it is warmer
than all the other guidance/blends, however with it being early
May now the warming can last later in the day. The forecast high
was generally bumped about 3 degrees over the area. The surface
high will continue to give way to gradual troughing over eastern
Colorado and the extreme western counties overnight. Much more
breezy conditions to  marginally windy conditions can be expected
Friday.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 142 PM CDT Thu May 5 2016

Continued focus exists on the weekend for severe weather
potential. Saturday and Sunday present somewhat different pattern
recognition setups with marginal shear on Saturday, increasing by
Sunday as the upper jet advances into the central High Plains.
CAPES appear moderate on Saturday, and a few hail and wind
producing severe storms could develop near the dryline in this
marginal shear environment. The ECMWF is the model that pushes the
dryline almost out of our forecast area on Sunday afternoon
before convection initiation, while the GFS was far more emphatic
with convection occurring farther west. Many characteristics of
the mesoscale are as of yet unknown, however thunderstorms are
probable this weekend. The best chance for the most widespread
severe and especially tornadic threat would be more likely farther
north where the models are in agreement with placement of the warm
front.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1243 PM CDT Thu May 5 2016

VFR conditions are forecast for this TAF period, with broad
surface high pressure dominating the region for Today. The surface
pressure pattern adjusts on Friday as a trough over eastern Colorado
develops, increasing the gradient. Therefore, southerly surface
winds should increase beginning around mid morning with gusts
approaching 30 knots through the day Friday.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  84  54  86  59 /   0   0   0  10
GCK  86  52  88  57 /   0   0  10  10
EHA  87  50  85  55 /   0   0  10  10
LBL  86  52  87  57 /   0   0   0  10
HYS  83  54  87  60 /   0   0  10  10
P28  83  54  86  60 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Russell
LONG TERM...Russell
AVIATION...Russell


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