Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 170508
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1108 PM CST Sat Dec 16 2017

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 832 PM CST Sat Dec 16 2017

WV imagery indicates an upper level shortwave trough lifting
northeast across western Oklahoma. Meanwhile, a secondary and more
amplified shortwave trough is pushing slowly east across Baja
California. Near the surface, A cold front is edging slowly
southeast across southwest and central Kansas.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 317 PM CST Sat Dec 16 2017

Cloudiness will increase tonight as a weak upper level low slides
northeast from New Mexico into the Central Plains. There may be
enough moisture and lift across south central Kansas to create a
few light rain showers. Otherwise expected mostly cloudy skies by
sunrise tomorrow. A cold front is also progged to bisect the CWA
overnight then ooze through the remainder of the CWA tomorrow.
Winds ahead of this front will generally be from the south with
northerly winds behind the front. As for temperatures, lows
tonight are progged to range from the low 20s across portions of
west central Kansas to upper 30s across south central Kansas.
Highs tomorrow look to range from the lower 40s across west
central Kansas to upper 40s across south central Kansas.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 317 PM CST Sat Dec 16 2017

A dry weather pattern continues through Wednesday with partly
cloudy to mostly clear skies. Long range models then suggest a
strong system to dive south across eastern Canada and into the
Central Rockies by Thursday. This system will increase mid level
moisture across the area with a chance of rain or snow Thursday
afternoon into Thursday night. It is too early to tell any snow
totals but as of now snow amounts look to be low. This could
change over the next couple model run cycles. As for temperatures,
highs will generally reach into the mid 50s to low 60s Monday
through Wednesday with lows in the 20s. Much cooler temperatures
are in store Thursday into this weekend with highs in the 30s and
lows in the teens.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1106 PM CST Sat Dec 16 2017

VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites overnight. Low level
stratus is expected to develop behind a cold front as it begins to
push southeast across the remainder of southwest and central Kansas
generally after daybreak. MVFR cigs will be possible in the
vicinity of all TAF sites after 12Z with the potential for brief
IFR cigs at KGCK, KLBL, and KDDC. Widespread VFR conditions will
then return Sunday afternoon. Light southerly winds will persist
overnight ahead of a stalled frontal boundary stretching from
extreme southwest Kansas northeast into north central Kansas.
Winds will then turn northerly 10 to 20kt generally after 12Z
behind the cold front as it begins to edge southeastward into
northern Oklahoma.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  28  45  23  60 /  10   0   0   0
GCK  25  42  22  57 /  10   0   0   0
EHA  24  43  26  61 /  10   0   0   0
LBL  26  45  23  60 /  10   0   0   0
HYS  28  43  24  55 /  10   0   0   0
P28  38  50  27  60 /  20   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJohnson
SHORT TERM...Hovorka_42
LONG TERM...Hovorka_42
AVIATION...JJohnson



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