Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 211935
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
235 PM CDT THU JUL 21 2016

...Updated Long Term...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 1244 PM CDT Thu Jul 21 2016

High pressure aloft is at its peak intensity at midday, with a
clear sky and temperatures soaring on their way to 100 as of noon.
Heat index values will be most dangerous across eastern areas this
afternoon and early evening, and the heat advisory continues.
NAM forecasts scattered thunderstorms this evening along the
periphery of the ridge, across SE Colorado and SW Nebraska, with a
few storms hugging the northern CWA border overnight. Was about to
ignore this solution, until GFS came in with something very
similar, with isolated convection mainly north of Dodge City
tonight. HRRR also lends support to convection near Hays by late
this evening. Confidence is low on thunderstorm development. Weak
vorticity max rounding the ridge axis appears to be the only
forcing evident. Spread slight chance/isolated wording across
the northern zones overnight.

Friday...Still hot! High pressure remains quite strong, with no
changes in thickness or 850 mb temperatures noted. As such, high
confidence in widespread triple digit heat Friday afternoon.
Afternoon max temperatures from 100-106, with the most dangerous
heat indices again relegated to the far eastern zones and lowest
elevations. Heat advisory continues through evening. Hot and dry
for most, but isolated thunderstorms may find their way into
northern zones by evening where the high pressure ridge`s
influence is weakest.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 235 PM CDT Thu Jul 21 2016

Another hot day on Saturday. Although high pressure aloft will
continue to weaken with lowering heights, the atmosphere remains
hot on Saturday with little to no change in 850 mb temps or
thickness. Afternoon highs from 99-104. Ongoing heat advisory will
likely have to be extended to include Saturday, especially the SE
zones near Medicine Lodge. Isolated to scattered thunderstorm
coverage expected to favor the W/NW zones Saturday afternoon and
evening. Marginal risk of marginal wind/hail from any convection
across NW zones late Saturday. Forcing is nebulous, but should be
able to start pulling in convection from the higher terrain by
Saturday evening.

Sunday...Still expecting a break from the heat. Weak frontal
boundary adds an easterly component to the surface wind fields,
and thicknesses finally relax. Temperatures "cool" a few degrees
back to the 90s, enough to let the heat advisory expire.
Thunderstorms expected to increase in coverage by Sunday evening,
particularly across the western 1/2 of the CWA, as westerly flow
aloft increases a bit, and embedded vort maxes begin pushing
convection eastward from the higher terrain.

Monday through Wednesday...Daily chances of thunderstorms
expected. High pressure ridge will gradually strengthen and remain
stationary over the Great Basin through this period. Expect
nocturnal MCSs to become more likely as NW flow establishes
itself, with 12z ECMWF suggesting this is most likely around
Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1200 PM CDT Thu Jul 21 2016

VFR expected to prevail through the TAF forecast. SW winds again
gusting to 25-30 kts this afternoon, with sct to bkn mid clouds
developing by evening. Surface winds weaken at 00z with another
round of modest low level wind shear overnight. 12z NAM/GFS models
are both forecasting scattered -SHRA/-TSRA during the 06-12z Fri
timeframe (especially near HYS), with HRRR solutions also
indicating convection near HYS by 06z Friday. Have low confidence
in these solutions, so only included VCSH/VCTS sparingly in the
TAFs for now.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 102  75 103  75 /   0  10  10  10
GCK 101  72 102  74 /  10  10  20  20
EHA 101  72 103  72 /   0  10  20  20
LBL 102  73 105  71 /   0  10  10  10
HYS 104  74 103  75 /  10  20  20  20
P28 104  76 106  77 /   0  10   0  10

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Friday for KSZ030-031-044>046-
064>066-079>081-089-090.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Turner
LONG TERM...Turner
AVIATION...Turner



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