Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS
FXUS63 KDDC 110830
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
330 AM CDT Fri Jul 11 2014
...Updated for short term discussion...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT FRI JUL 11 2014
Upper level ridging will persist across the central plains through
the period. The outflow boundary that stretched across southwestern
Kansas Thursday was losing identity this morning and the associated
low level moist axis was being shunted back to the east into
central Kansas. With persistent surface troughing across the central
high plains, all of western Kansas will be in the warm sector
today. Given the strong mixing, the marginal low level moisture will
become diluted in the vertical, resulting in negligible surface
based CAPE. Therefore, thunderstorms are not expected through
tonight. Given the surface troughing, winds will be from the
south, with the highest speeds during the strongly mixed
afternoon. High temperatures today will be in the mid to upper
90s, which is a little cooler than the NAM 2m temperatures
suggest. The NAM continues to struggle this summer and has been
too warm with high temperatures. Temperatures tonight will be held
up by breezy south winds, with lows mainly between 70 and 73F.
.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 222 PM CDT THU JUL 10 2014
Went ahead and removed >14 pops and resultant weather for Friday Night.
The global models, as well as convective allowing models show any storms
remaining across Colorado and possibly into northwest Kansas. SW Kansas
will be capped off and firmly in the warm sector, so not expecting
thunderstorms at this time. Lows will be warm and in the 70s.
Kept the highest pops for Saturday afternoon and evening across the
northwest zones in association to closer proximity to the front. There
is a trend that the models are backing off on the convective signal,
so this may have to be cut back in future forecasts. Otherwise, a hot
day is expected with max values in the 95-101F range. Another mild night
with 70s for lows is expected heading into Sunday morning.
Sunday and beyond:
Will have to watch out for upslope/post-frontal convection Sunday across
the western zones, which the EC has been consistently showing. Maximum
temperatures will be a few degrees cooler and in the mid 90s.
The most significant item of interest is another fairly strong cold
front that moves across the region late Monday into Tuesday. Thunderstorms
will be possible along the front and then possibly later in a post-
frontal upslope flow regime. The airmass behind this front is quite
impressive for July standards (the 12Z EC solution). 850-hPa temperatures
in the lower teens C is quite the anomaly for this time of year. This
translates to surface temperatures in the 70s for highs and 50s! for
lows, which is from the raw EC output and matches pretty well with ECE
guidance. FWIW, the record low for the 16th for Dodge City is 51F.
I do have some 50s in there now for the middle portion of next week,
but don`t want to jump on the near record approaching outlier just yet.
Regardless, it will be wonderful next week temperatures-wise, with
widespread 70s rather than your typical 90s.
Allblend pops and temps were pretty much left alone since it looks
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
ISSUED AT 1254 AM CDT FRI JUL 11 2014
Wet ground and cool outflow from previous rains has resulted in
MVFR CIGS at KHYS and this should persist through 13z until daytime
heating resumes. Otherwise, surface troughing in the lee of the
Rockies will result in south winds that will be strongest (20-22 kts)
during daytime heating on Friday at the TAF sites.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 96 71 96 70 / 0 0 0 20
GCK 98 70 96 70 / 0 0 20 20
EHA 98 70 96 72 / 0 0 20 20
LBL 97 71 97 73 / 0 0 10 20
HYS 98 72 95 69 / 0 0 20 30
P28 96 73 96 73 / 0 0 0 10