Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 231727
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1227 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2016

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 932 AM CDT Mon May 23 2016

WV imagery indicates a southwest flow aloft prevailing across the
Western High Plains downstream of an elongated upper level trough
set up across the Intermountain West. Meanwhile, an embedded
shortwave within the broader scale trough is digging southeast
along the Pacific Coast of northern California. Near the surface,
a weak frontal boundary extending from north central Kansas
southwestward into southwest Kansas, is advancing slowly east-
southeast.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 352 AM CDT Mon May 23 2016

A cold front is advancing across central NE into northern KS, which
will reach the central sections of our forecast area mid morning.
Not seeing significant indications any instability will be realized
once this front arrives in our area, and by late morning, the
surface winds begin to veer and remain light northeasterly until
late day.

The main convective threat will be supercells either initiating or
moving north out of Oklahoma focused within the main higher
moisture/surface dew point axis ahead of the surface dryline.
However this may become complicated by the true southward extent of
the aforementioned cold front position.  Another area of interest
will be behind the washed out cold front in the increasingly
easterly upslope surface flow along the KS/CO line where the NAM is
insistent on isolated supercell development with potential for giant
hail, and much less of a tornado threat. Threat ares may need to be
adjusted later today as the convective models refine the best
locations for initiation. Still, low to upper 80s look agreed upon
by numerical models for this aftenroon`s highs

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 352 AM CDT Mon May 23 2016

Little changes in the overall synoptic pattern in the coming days.
The models have been consistent will keeping Wednesday the likeliest
day to be dry and quite (no convection at least), however the rest
of the forecast looks fairly active with at least peak heating
dryline storms and waves exiting the the quasi-stationary western
upper trough. The warming trend will continue into mid week with
90s almost a certainty by wednesday. More clouds and precipitationmay
cool temperatures by late week with models showing a strong
shortwave into the plains. Overnight lows remain somewhat mild in
the mid to upper 50s through the period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1220 PM CDT Mon May 23 2016

VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites through late this
afternoon. Thunderstorms are then expected to develop and move
northeast across central and portions of southwest Kansas this
evening, potentially affecting KHYS with brief periods of MVFR/IFR
cigs/vsbys. There is less confidence of KDDC or even KGCK being
affected. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected to continue
through early Tuesday morning. Winds will remain light and variable
through this evening as a near stalled out frontal boundary situated
across north central into southwest Kansas begins to lift slowly
north. East to southeast winds around 5 to 15kt are expected to
develop later this evening as the frontal boundary lifts further
north.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  81  60  87  61 /  30  30  20  20
GCK  81  55  87  57 /  10  10  10  10
EHA  84  52  88  55 /  10  10  10  10
LBL  84  56  90  56 /  10  10  10  10
HYS  78  61  84  63 /  30  30  20  20
P28  79  65  86  67 /  40  50  30  30

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJohnson
SHORT TERM...Russell
LONG TERM...Russell
AVIATION...JJohnson



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