Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 020853
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
353 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015


.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

At this time, both the 4 km NAM and ARW are far too aggressive
with isolated/scattered convection in or around the western
sections of the forecast area. At least in the case of the 4km
NAM, it appears to carry over into the later morning hours today,
but we will maintain a dry forecast in all locations. Another
warm day is expected this afternoon with warm breezy southerly
winds and highs in the mid to upper 90s once again. Although this
is warmer than typical upper 80s for this time of year, it falls
far short of the daily record highs in the low 100`s in 2011/2012.
Southerly surface winds on the lee of the trough will become gusty
iin the late morning, and decouple with the usualy diurnal cycle
before anotehr mild overnight.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday THROUGH Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

The overall synoptic pattern changes very little through about the
end of the week. An upper level ridge extending across the Southern
Plains into the Upper Midwest will ensure weak steering flow for any
convection generated in the surface trough region over eastern
Colorado. Attempting  to pin down opportunities for storm will be
difficult outside of the short term forecast with this pattern,
however, the GFS MOS was used  for slight chances for showers or
storms late evening/overnight Thursday the far west. Central Kansas
will likely not see any opportunity for convection until later in
the forecast period (Friday or Saturday), when the advancing
vigourous Pacific shortwave swings through the northern Rockies,
effectively pulling the trough/surface low farther out into the
plains during the weekend. Even then chances do not look high, and
both day and overnight temperatures remain warm in the synoptic
warm sector. Like the last couple of days the raw model consensus
high temperatures were favored. Likewise, the low were forecast
with the bias corrected ecmwf MOS which has done a better job with
quite warm overnight lows in central KS, and not near as warm in
the drier, higher elevation air to the west.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z Wednesday NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1248 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

VFR flight categories will hold through this TAF period. Southerly
surface winds will remain steady around 12 knots and become gusty in
the late morning due to boundary layer mixing. Convection, even
elevated or high based is not expected for any of the terminal
locations.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  96  68  95  68 /  10  10  10  10
GCK  97  69  96  68 /  10  10   0  10
EHA  96  70  95  68 /  10  10  10  20
LBL  97  70  96  69 /  10  10   0  10
HYS  98  69  96  71 /  10  10  20  20
P28  96  71  94  71 /  10  10  10   0

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Russell
LONG TERM...Russell
AVIATION...Russell



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