Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43

FXUS63 KDDC 220602

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
102 AM CDT Tue Aug 22 2017

...Updated Aviation Section...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 250 PM CDT Mon Aug 21 2017

Regional 88-D radar showed and area of showers continuing to spread
northeast across the Texas panhandle into the Meade and Comanche
county areas. This trend is  expected to continue through the
afternoon. Although the reflectivity appears rather light, there
should be potential for light to brief moderate rain rates under
this southwest to northeast oriented max in precipitable water
(around 1.8"). Between the precipitation and cloudiness persisting
over the south central Kansas counties, and the  eclipse which
accounted for a 2 to 3 degree temperature drop this afternoon,
keeping a decent temperature trend as been difficult. However there
is a dry slot on satellite expanding slowly northeast across extreme
se Colorado. This subsident zone should ensure a dry rest of the
daytime hours in the west, while scattered showers expand north
east through south central Kansas.

Another chance for scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will
follow this evening as the 850mb front drops south into Kansas. The
overall coverage will probably be limited by the loss of maximum
moisture and theta-e transport by that time.  However the Hi-Res
ARW/NMM and HRRR continue to hold on to the potential toward late
evening and beyond.

Any areas of fog that develop over south central Kansas overnight
likely will not last as the increasing northerly surface winds
increase mixing, and the model fields generally do not favor at this
time. Widespread low level cloudiness will rapidly advance across
most of the area with breezy northeast winds during the morning
hours, and clearing across the north in the afternoon. A dry push of
boundary layer air characterized by dewpoints in the 50s and upper
40s Tuesday night will will advance into the lower plains, creating
a zone of baroclinicity immediately south of our area.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 250 PM CDT Mon Aug 21 2017

By midweek, the GFS displays another weak northwest flow pattern,
where any little weak midlevel impulse could bring showers or storms
daily, especially after peak heating. the same general idea is
supported in the ECMWF fields. The model consensus maintains a
somewhat seasonal temperatures  spread, with highs just a few degrees
below normal for late August, in the mid 80s, and lows generally in
the low 60s.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1254 AM CDT Tue Aug 22 2017

The main challenge will be if/when/how long MVFR or lower ceilings
will develop immediately behind cold front early in the morning.
06z observations and GOES-16 satellite were not showing much
stratus development yet, other than patchy cloud, but NAM12 and
HRRR are in good agreement of expansion of this cloud and lowering
of ceiling down to IFR by 09z and especially 12z as it pushes
south. There is enough confidence to include at least a couple
hours of IFR at DDC and GCK terminals. Ceiling is expected to
scatter out by 17z or shortly thereafter. Northeast winds behind
the front will range 16 to 19 knots sustained for a few hours with
gusts in the mid to upper 20s, periodically.


DDC  68  84  58  85 /  30  10  10   0
GCK  66  85  58  84 /  20  10   0   0
EHA  66  80  61  83 /  20  20  10  10
LBL  68  83  61  85 /  20  30  10   0
HYS  67  84  57  85 /  20  10   0   0
P28  71  87  61  84 /  30  20  10   0




SHORT TERM...Russell
LONG TERM...Russell
AVIATION...Umscheid is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.