Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 280120
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
820 PM CDT FRI MAY 27 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 820 PM CDT Fri May 27 2016

Cleaned up pop/wx/sky grids through midnight to match trends.
Closed low rotating through the northern CWA currently, with
showers and thunderstorms continuing across the NE counties, aided
by diffluence aloft ahead of the incoming low. Low topped
supercells have been noted across the northern counties for the
past several hours, with confirmed weak tornadoes, and hail as
large as golfballs from the strongest storms. Thunderstorm
intensity will continue to wane through midnight with the loss of
instability.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 258 PM CDT Fri May 27 2016

Immediate concern is the areal coverage and intensity of
convection the remainder of the afternoon into early evening. A
relatively cold upper low was moving into west central Kansas this
afternoon. It has developed a negative tilt as a speed max punches
around the southern periphery. Lightning has increased
dramatically under the cold pool across east central Colorado.
Farther east, the westerly boundary layer surge had moved into
my southeast counties. Across my northern counties an easterly
flow has developed with increasing theta-e air. With the cold
system moving east the likelihood of severe will continue into
the early evening hours.

Saturday should be a down day with the upper system far removed.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 258 PM CDT Fri May 27 2016

The upper flow becomes favorable again late in the weekend with
lowering heights again across the southwest. Deep boundary layer
moisture will be moving back into the high plains during the early
part of the period. All the deterministic models due indicate at
least a weak s/wv trough moving out late Sunday and these models
generate an MCS looking signal.

Additional chances for convection will exist until later in the
week as it appears a strong s/wv trough drops southeast out of the
northern branch of the westerlies. This should bring a fairly
strong cool front south into western Kansas by Wednesday. Details
beyond mid-week are uncertain.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 600 PM CDT Fri May 27 2016

VFR is expected through the TAF period. Have CB/TS for KDDC
based off radar for the first few hours. Convection should
be north of KGCK/KHYS. There will be a bkn080 deck. Winds will be
southwesterly and eventually become W/NW 5-10 kt by morning.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  53  80  58  82 /  10  10  10  50
GCK  51  81  56  83 /  20  10  10  30
EHA  49  81  54  84 /  10  10  10  30
LBL  52  81  57  84 /  10  10  10  40
HYS  55  77  57  81 /  50  10  10  30
P28  58  81  62  82 /  20  10  10  40

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Turner
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...Sugden



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