Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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096
FXUS63 KDDC 211728
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1128 AM CST Tue Nov 21 2017

...Updated aviation discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 256 AM CST Tue Nov 21 2017

A cold front moving into the upper Midwest today will push a cold
front through western Kansas late this morning. A pre-frontal
wind shift will occur by 12z before the front arrives, with a wind
shift to the north. Highs will be in the 50s. The coldest part of
this airmass will be over central Kansas so that lows tonight are
expected to fall into the lower 20s at Hays, with mid 20s farther
southwest. This should be an excellent night for radiational
cooling and temperatures may actually get lower than this.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 256 AM CST Tue Nov 21 2017

A dry pattern is expected across the high plains region for the
next week and probably to the end of November. The mid to upper
level flow pattern is expected to be mainly westerly to
northwesterly, with any embedded upper level disturbances being
fast moving. As long as we lack arctic air, temperatures will
continue to be much warmer than model guidance given the dry
ground.

After the cool down today, a warming trend can be expected as
downslope flow develops. Highs ought to reach into the 70s
for Thursday and Friday ahead of the next cold front.
The warmest days will be Thursday and Friday. If the front moves
though late on Friday, low level down slope just ahead of the
front could propel temperatures to the upper 70s to near 80
degrees. The record high for Thursday is 74 degrees, which is
one of those records destined to be broken sooner rather than
later since other records before and after are several degrees
warmer. Highs will fall back into the 50s and 60s for Saturday and
Sunday in the wake of a cold front.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1128 AM CST Tue Nov 21 2017

Strong northerly winds at the beginning of the period will gradually
weaken as a surface pressure gradient relaxes this afternoon. Winds
will be light and variable overnight as surface high pressure moves
through the region. On Wednesday, look for winds to increase from
the south to southwest. Wind gusts to around 25 knots will be possible
toward the end of the period. A dry airmass will ensure VFR cigs
and vsbys through the period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  55  25  63  39 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  56  27  66  38 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  61  31  66  40 /  10   0   0   0
LBL  62  28  66  39 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  51  22  60  40 /   0   0   0   0
P28  57  25  55  36 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Finch
LONG TERM...Finch
AVIATION...Gerard



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