Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 141130
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
530 AM CST SUN FEB 14 2016

...Updated aviation discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 222 AM CST SUN FEB 14 2016

Cold front moving through the area early this morning bumping winds
briefly behind the boundary to gusts in the 20 knots range
locally. The larger observation picture and local GFS MOS
guidance suggests winds will quickly become lighter and westerly
this morning. Stratus will be mainly confined to the extreme
south central counties and based on the HRRR is likely to exit by
11 or 12 UTC. The consensus of most of the models data for this
afternoon points toward highs in the mid to upper 50s; perhaps
pushing 60 degrees along the Oklahoma line. However the model
variance is quite low lending to better confidence. Light winds
and cloudy skies are likely tonight as a secondary shortwave seen
for several runs now, rotates through the region. The GFS is the
only model producing any measurable QPF while others strongly
suggestive of a completely dry passage. The models are a few
degrees warmer than most MOS solutions.

.LONG TERM...(Monday THROUGH Saturday)
ISSUED AT 222 AM CST SUN FEB 14 2016

The remainder of the week is a story of a strong warming trend,
incrementally each day, to highs likely in the upper 70s and low
80s by Thursday. With such warm temperatures by Thursday,
critical fire weather may become a concern if gusts are
sufficient in the afternoon.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z Monday MORNING)
ISSUED AT 529 AM CST SUN FEB 14 2016

Winds will be northwesterly at around 10 knots this morning but will
become light and variable as the day progresses. A weak upper disturbance
moving over the region tonight could bring a few sprinkles or flurries
but cigs should remain VFR. By very late in the period, winds will become
northwesterly again and could increase into the 10-15 knot range.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  56  32  61  37 /  10  10   0   0
GCK  57  31  63  35 /  10  10   0   0
EHA  58  33  65  37 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  58  32  65  35 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  53  32  57  36 /  10  10   0  10
P28  59  34  64  38 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Russell
LONG TERM...Russell
AVIATION...Gerard


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