Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 290718
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
218 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

...UPDATED FOR SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 217 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

DRY NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TODAY ACROSS THE
PLAINS, FOLLOWED BY A MINOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE UPPER
FLOW TONIGHT.

FOR TODAY, A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL KANSAS WILL
MOVE EAST WHILE LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENS IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY AND INCREASE TO 12 TO 25 MPH BY
AFTERNOON, AS A SURFACE TEMPERATURE INVERSION BREAKS AND THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. SKIES WILL BE
CLEAR WITH THE VERY DRY ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE. WITH SOME BOUNDARY
LAYER WARMING, HIGHS TODAY WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER THAN YESTERDAY
AND IN THE LOWER 70S.

FOR TONIGHT, A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS, IN
RESPONSE TO THE MINOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS FROM THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. THE FRONT WILL BE JUST EAST OF
DODGE CITY BY DAWN WITH LIGHT SOUTH WINDS SHIFTING NORTHWESTERLY AT
10 TO 20 MPH. IT WILL BE A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH CLEAR TO MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM 39 TO 44 DEGREES.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

DURING THE FIRST FEW DAYS OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD, AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE ROCKIES AND MOVE OUT INTO THE HIGH PLAINS.
AHEAD OF THIS RIDGE, A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE DAKOTAS INTO MISSOURI WED NIGHT-THU WHICH WILL PUSH A
WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH WESTERN KANSAS. WITH ONLY WEAK COLD
ADVECTION BEHIND THIS FRONT, LITTLE TEMPERATURE CHANGE IS EXPECTED
BEHIND THE FRONT ON THURSDAY. A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DROP
THROUGH THE MIDWEST ON THU NIGHT AND FRI MORNING. THIS WILL PUSH A
SURGE OF COLDER AIR INTO CENT HIGH PLAINS FOR FRIDAY. THE MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS ALL SHOW 850 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES AROUND 3-5 DEG C
ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN KANSAS WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR 10
TO 12 DEG C ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER. HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY VERY
WELL STAY IN THE 50S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WITH LOWER 60S POSSIBLE
ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER AS COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. FREEZING TEMPERATURES COULD BE POSSIBLE IN CENTRAL
KANSAS SATURDAY MORNING.

BY THIS WEEKEND, A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE
WESTERN STATES. THIS WILL BRING LOWERING SURFACE PRESSURE THE
WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. A STRONG SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS FORECAST
TO DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS ON SATURDAY WITH SUSTAINED
SOUTHERLY WINDS NEAR 30 MPH AT TIMES. THE STRONG WINDS COULD
CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DEEPEN
OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.

EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE MODELS SHOW THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE TROUGH
CONTINUING EAST ALONG THE U.S./CANADIAN BORDER WHILE THE SOUTHERN
PORTION LINGERS BACK TO THE WEST. A COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE
ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS AROUND SUNDAY NIGHT. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE FRONT.
WE COULD SEE CONTINUED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY TOWARD SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. THIS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON HOW PROGRESSIVE THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE UPPER WAVE IS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1220 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT. DRY NORTHWESTERLY
UPPER LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES AS A SURFACE LEE TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE DEEPENS. LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 12-22KT BY 18Z AS A SURFACE INVERSION BREAKS WITH
CLEAR SKIES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  72  42  68  37 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  72  39  68  36 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  71  41  68  39 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  72  41  68  38 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  71  41  67  35 /   0   0   0   0
P28  72  42  68  38 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KRUSE
LONG TERM...GERARD
AVIATION...KRUSE



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