Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 240630
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
130 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

...UPDATE TO SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 123 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
DRIFTING SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS TODAY. ALONG
WITH A WEAK FLOW ALOFT, DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB WELL ABOVE
NORMAL TODAY AS WEAK LEE SIDE TROUGHING HELPS DIRECT A
SOUTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. THE NAM/GFS
SHOW H85 TEMPERATURES UP AROUND 20C ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS TO NEAR
25C IN EXTREME SOUTHWEST KANSAS BY THIS AFTERNOON. EVEN WITH SOME
HIGHER CLOUDS LIKELY, EXPECT HIGHS WELL UP INTO THE 80S(F) THIS
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BACK DOWN INTO THE 50S(F) FOR
LOWS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

THE STRETCH OF VERY WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND AS
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS AND EXPANDS EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. THE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW PATTERN WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY
DOWNSLOPE AS SLIGHTLY CYCLONICALLY-CURVED FLOW WILL YIELD A
DEEPENING LEE TROUGH BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND. IN FACT, THE SATURDAY
AND PARTICULARLY SUNDAY FORECAST LOOKS WARMER THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST
AS DOWNSLOPE MOMENTUM LOOKS MORE IMPRESSIVE. THE LATEST ECMWF 850MB
TEMPERATURES FOR 00Z MONDAY OF +24 TO +26C SUPPORT HIGHS WELL INTO
THE MID TO PERHAPS UPPER 80S, ESPECIALLY BETWEEN THE ARKANSAS RIVER
TO THE OKLAHOMA BORDER. THE ECMWF HAS A 6-HOUR MAX TEMPERATURE OF
90F NEAR LIBERAL 00Z MONDAY! A DEEP TROUGH AXIS WILL BE DEVELOPING
AND MOVING EAST EARLY NEXT WEEK, WHICH WILL PROVIDE A CHANCE FOR
RAIN OR RAIN SHOWERS (PERHAPS ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IN SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS). THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TIED TO THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BE
FAIRLY STRONG MONDAY, WITH NORTH WINDS USHERING IN COOLER
TEMPERATURES DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE AIRMASS BEHIND THIS FRONT
WILL CERTAINLY BE COOLER, HOWEVER TRUE ARCTIC AIR WILL REMAIN WELL
TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST GIVEN THE DOWNSLOPE MODIFICATION BEHIND THE
FRONT MID-WEEK. HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S SEEM REASONABLE RIGHT
NOW, WHICH IS WHAT THE LATEST SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE HAS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1215 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

A FEW AREAS OF PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF ALL TAF
SITES OVERNIGHT LOWERING VSBYS TO MVFR. ALONG WITH HIGH RELATIVE
HUMIDITY LEVELS PRESENT, LOW LEVEL STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS WITHIN A SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW
TOWARD DAYBREAK. IFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THIS REGION WITH
THE POTENTIAL EXISTING FOR THE STRATUS TO MIGRATE AS FAR WEST AS
KDDC. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE NORM AT ALL TAF SITES
BY MID FRIDAY MORNING. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME
MORE SOUTHWESTERLY FRIDAY AS A WEAK LEE SIDE TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE STRENGTHENS SOMEWHAT NEAR AND ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  87  53  85  55 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  86  49  84  54 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  87  50  88  52 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  87  51  88  55 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  86  50  82  54 /   0   0   0   0
P28  87  57  87  58 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJOHNSON
LONG TERM...UMSCHEID
AVIATION...JJOHNSON



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