Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS
FXUS63 KDDC 102000
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
200 PM CST Tue Dec 10 2013
...UPDATE TO SHORT TERM...
ISSUED AT 1010 AM CST TUE DEC 10 2013
Water vapor imagery and 12Z upper air analysis indicate an upper
level shortwave moving quickly east across the Ohio River Valley.
Meanwhile, a secondary upper level shortwave is dropping southeast
across southern Canada. Near the surface, a weak lee side trough
of low pressure is slowly strengthening across extreme eastern
Colorado. A small amount of moisture has returned to the area
with surface dewpoints back above 0F across west central Kansas
to near 10F in south central Kansas.
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 200 PM CST TUE DEC 10 2013
Short range models indicate the upper level shortwave in southern
Canada shifting southeast across the Northern Plains tonight. Even
though an attendant cold front will push southward through western
Kansas overnight, dry conditions are expected to persist through
Wednesday afternoon with a lack available low level moisture.
Cold, but closer to seasonal temperatures, are expected tonight as
the aforementioned cold front moves through the region. Colder air
will filter southward into western Kansas sending H85 temperatures
back down below 0C across the entire region with near 5C below in
central and west central Kansas. This will likely drop lows well
into the teens(F) with a few upper digits(F) possible in west
central Kansas and near the I-70 corridor in central Kansas. A
surface high in the Dakotas will then sink south-southeast into
central and eastern Kansas Wednesday helping to lock in this next
push of arctic air in across the Western High Plains with H85
temperatures remaining well below 0C. Expect highs only up into
the 20s(F) across central Kansas with the lower to mid 30s(F)
possible across extreme southwest Kansas.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
ISSUED AT 143 AM CST TUE DEC 10 2013
We will see maximums only in the 20sF on Wednesday in the wake of a
cold front. Ongoing forecast temps look on track and saw no reason to
deviate. High pressure will shift off to the east by evening with southerly
winds developing on the backside of the high.
Thursday and beyond:
Sfc lee troughing will develop Thursday ahead of the next upper level
low/trof located well to the southwest. 850 hPa temps will increase
in the warm air advection pattern to near 5C. There won`t be much mixing,
but maximums in the 40sF look reasonable.
Watching to see how the aforementioned wave evolves in the deterministic
runs. The models are trending the vortmax to remain south of the region
to just clipping south central Kansas. The ECMWF shows wave breaking
occurring east of the region over time. As a result, most of the lift
and dynamics will remain east and southeast of the region. Will leave
the slight precip chances across south central Kansas that the weighted
blend solution produces alone. Have my doubts about precip. There is
enough warm air advection to produce rain or snow.
Beyond that, the forecast remains precipitation free as northwesterly
flow aloft continues. Temperatures will trend to near normal by the
end of the forecast period.
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1110 AM CST TUE DEC 10 2013
VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites through early
Wednesday morning. Lee side trough will slowly strengthen in
eastern Colorado this afternoon turning southwesterly winds
more southerly 10 to 15kt through this evening. A cold front
will then push southward across western Kansas later tonight
turning winds northerly 10 to 20kt generally after 04Z.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 12 27 13 42 / 0 0 0 0
GCK 10 28 13 42 / 0 0 0 0
EHA 13 32 18 48 / 0 0 0 0
LBL 13 30 15 46 / 0 0 0 0
HYS 10 27 12 41 / 0 0 0 0
P28 13 27 14 42 / 0 0 0 0