Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 280613
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
113 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

...Updated short...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 100 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

Any overnight showers and thunderstorms will quickly exit to the east
by 8 am or 9 am. The rest of today will be dry. The old 12Z ARW/NMM
models were showing convection for this evening across far western Kansas,
but the 00Z data solutions have backed off on this. Water vapor imagery
shows a departing synoptic trof with subsidence in its wake. So, will
keep pops aob 10 percent across the forecast area for this afternoon
and evening. A light northerly wind is expected today in the wake of
a weak passing cold front. Highs will range from upper 80s to lower
90s, with the warmest across Barber county. Overnight lows should range
from the upper 50s across west-central Kansas to mid 60s across south-
central Kansas. No precipitation is expected through the overnight period,
with pops trending to zero percent.

.LONG TERM...(Friday NIGHT THROUGH Thursday)
ISSUED AT 240 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

High pressure at the surface will build across western Kansas
Friday night so winds will decrease to less than 10 knots after
sunset. Given these winds and clear/mostly clear conditions will
trend towards undercutting guidance for lows. Will favor
temperatures falling back into the mainly the upper 50s to lower
60s.

From Saturday through the beginning of next week an upper level
ridge will build and shift eastward into the Central and Northern
Plains. This trend continues to support the previous forecast with
a gradual warming trend through early next week. Highs will be
rebounding from the upper 80s to around 90 on Saturday to at least
the low to mid 90s on Monday and Tuesday.

Towards mid week a southwesterly flow will develop across the
Central High Plains. The GFS and ECMWF also suggest some tropical
moisture will try to return to Colorado and portions of western
Kansas. This may limit how warm temperatures will get around mid
week. There will also be a slightly better chance for afternoon
and evening thunderstorms along a surface boundary which is
expected to be located near the Colorado border should any subtle
upper wave be embedded in the southwesterly flow.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z Friday NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

VFR conditions expected through TAF pd. The showers and thunderstorms
spreading across the region right now will taper off through the overnight
period as the low level jet weakens. Some of the old models were showing
additional afternoon/evening convection near KGCK tonight. With the
old data and low confidence, will defer to later issuances. Winds be
fairly light and variable then become northerly in wake of weak front.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  89  61  89  62 /  10   0   0   0
GCK  89  60  89  61 /  10   0   0   0
EHA  89  60  89  62 /  10  10   0   0
LBL  90  61  90  62 /  10  10   0   0
HYS  88  60  89  60 /  10   0   0   0
P28  92  64  90  64 /  20  10   0   0

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Sugden
LONG TERM...Burgert
AVIATION...Sugden



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