Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 171706
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1106 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 906 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

WV IMAGERY AND 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
SETTING UP A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH
PLAINS. NEAR THE SURFACE, AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS DRIFTING
EASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST HELPING TO CREATE AN EAST TO
SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
IS BEGINNING TO RETURN TO THE REGION WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS BACK UP
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S(F) ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 403 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

A LOW TO PERHAPS MODERATE IMPACT WINTER WEATHER EVENT WILL MOVE
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE
OVERNIGHT WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWED A FAIRLY FORMIDABLE DISTURBANCE
CENTERED ALONG THE ARIZONA INTERNATIONAL BORDER. A FEW LIGHTNING
STRIKES HAVE APPEARED VERY NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER NEAR THE
CENTER OF THE 400MB POTENTIAL VORTICITY ANOMALY. THE LOWER
TROPOSPHERE WAS SLOWLY RESPONDING TO THE ADVANCING
DISTURBANCE...WITH A WEAK SURFACE LOW CENTERED OVER EXTREME
SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO. THIS WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL STAY IN PLACE AND
SLOWLY DEEPEN, KEEPING THE SURFACE LOW EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY ACROSS
MUCH OF SOUTHERN KANSAS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ADVANCE INTO THE
AREA AND LOW CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP LATE IN THE DAY IN RESPONSE TO THE
CONTINUED MOIST ADVECTION TOWARD THE COOLER LOW LEVEL AIRMASS. THE
EASTERLY FLOW ALONG WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL HELP KEEP
TEMPERATURES FROM RISING MUCH ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF
THE FORECAST AREA.  THE EXCEPTION WILL BE FAR SOUTHWEST KANSAS WHERE
A SLIVER OF SOUTHWESTERLY LOWER TROPOSPHERIC MOMENTUM WILL HELP PUSH
TEMPERATURES TO NEAR 50 DEGREES LATE THIS AFTERNOON...GENERALLY
ELKHART TO AS FAR NORTHEAST AS ULYSSES.

THE 800-600MB LAYER WILL CONTINUE TO MOISTEN AND PRECIPITATION WILL
EVENTUALLY BE REALIZED IN THE 22Z TO 00Z TIME FRAME LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. THE TIMING OF THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION IS
VERY QUESTIONABLE IN THE OPERATIONAL WRF-ARW AND WRF-NMMB
RUNS...BRINGING LIGHT TO MODERATE PRECIPITATION WELL NORTH INTO WEST
CENTRAL KANSAS BY AS EARLY AS 21Z.  THIS JUST SEEMS TOO EARLY, AND
NONE OF THE OTHER MODELS SHOW PRECIPITATION THAT FAR NORTH THAT
EARLY, SO THESE MODELS WERE DISCOUNTED. A BLEND OF THE LATEST NAM12
AND THE ECMWF APPEARS MUCH MORE REASONABLE...KEEPING ALL OF THE
ACCUMULATING PRECIPITATION IN THE 00-09Z TIME FRAME FOR THE MOST
PART. BOTH THE MODELS SUGGEST A WARM ADVECTION/WARM CONVEYER SHIELD
OF PRECIPITATION AS WELL AS A HINT AT A DEFORMATION ZONE AROUND
700MB FARTHER WEST. WITH THIS IN MIND, WE WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR
HEAVIER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS A BIT FARTHER WEST AS WELL...PERHAPS AS FAR
WEST AS A GARDEN CITY TO SCOTT CITY LINE. THE PRECIPITATION TYPE IS
ALSO A BIT OF A CHALLENGE AS THE RAIN-SNOW LINE WILL BE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. NONE OF THE MODELS SHOW A
WARM LAYER ALOFT, SO JUST THE LITTLE BIT OF COOLING WITH INCREASING
LOWER-MID TROPOSPHERIC ASCENT WILL PUSH THE VERTICAL THERMODYNAMIC
PROFILE TO A SNOW PROFILE. THE RAIN-SNOW LINE WILL SHIFT SLOWLY
SOUTH THROUGH THE NIGHT, BUT AS THIS IS HAPPENING LATE IN THE NIGHT,
THE PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE SHIFTING NORTHEAST.

GIVEN THE EXPECTED TRACK OF THE MID LEVEL PV ANOMALY AND RESULTING
700MB DEFORMATION ZONE, THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL WILL LIKELY OCCUR
ALONG AN AXIS FROM KALVESTA TO DIGHTON EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TO HAYS TO
LARNED, ROUGHLY. IN THIS AREA, THE LATEST OFFICIAL STORM TOTAL
SNOWFALL WILL BE 1 TO 2 INCHES. THE WIND WILL BE RATHER LIGHT DURING
THIS EVENT, AND WITH TEMPERATURES HOVERING AROUND 29 TO 32F FOR THIS
EVENT, IMPACTS SHOULD BE LIMITED. AS SUCH, WE WILL NOT ISSUE A
WINTER WX ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. SHOULD THE FORECAST INDICATE HIGHER
AMOUNTS ON THE DAY SHIFT, THEN THIS HEADLINE THINKING WILL NEED TO
BE CHANGED, AND A WINTER WX ADVISORY WILL BE NECESSARY. THE SNOW
WILL BEGIN TO EXIT THE AREA BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY, BUT SOME LINGERING
DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 123 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

THURSDAY:

WINTRY PRECIPITATION WILL QUICKLY TAPER WEST TO EAST THURSDAY MORNING.
THE FORECAST WILL BE DRY FOR THE REMAIN OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE FAIRLY COLD THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S AND 40S. LOWS WILL
BE IN THE 20S.

FRIDAY:

WILL SEE MODERATING TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AS DOWNSLOPE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
DEVELOPS. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 40S.

AND THE REST:

THE REST OF THE FORECAST FEATURES WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
THIS IS NOT A CONDUCIVE PATTERN FOR SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION ACROSS
SOUTHWEST KANSAS. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND ABOVE NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND
AND PARTICULARLY NEXT WEEK AS DOWNSLOPE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS.
WILL HAVE TO WATCH OUT FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT PRECIP MONDAY WITH
A FROPA, BUT THIS LOOKS TO BE MAINLY MID LEVEL MOISTURE. AGAIN, NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW IN THE WINTER IS NOT A PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH PRECIP ACROSS SOUTHWEST
KANSAS. HIGHS WILL BE FAIRLY PLEASANT TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD
- AROUND 50 OR SO.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1103 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF ALL TAF SITES THIS
AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL STRATUS BEGINS TO DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL
AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS EAST OF A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW
IN NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO. THE STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO LOWER AS
LIGHT RAIN/SNOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE AREA TOWARD THIS EVENING
RESULTING IN POSSIBLE IFR CIGS/VSBYS OVERNIGHT. EAST TO
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS OF AROUND 10 TO 20KT WILL PERSIST THROUGH LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW BEGINS TO DEVELOP
ACROSS NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE NORTHEASTERLY
TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW BEGINS TO EDGE EASTWARD INTO THE
PANHANDLES OF OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  39  30  37  32 /  20  70  30   0
GCK  44  30  37  31 /  20  60  20   0
EHA  50  30  40  32 /  20  40  10   0
LBL  47  32  39  33 /  20  40  20   0
HYS  35  26  33  27 /  20  80  20   0
P28  38  30  37  34 /  50  70  30  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJOHNSON
SHORT TERM...UMSCHEID
LONG TERM...SUGDEN
AVIATION...JJOHNSON



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