Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 021706
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1206 PM CDT TUE JUN 2 2015

...UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 220 AM CDT TUE JUN 2 2015

CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS WERE EXITING NEBRASKA AND MOVING INTO
NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS EARLIER THIS MORNING. THESE STORMS WERE
LOCATED ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF +10C TO +13C 700MB TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT AND IN AN AREA WHERE AN INSTABILITY AXIS WAS LOCATED.
WARM AIR ADVECTION WAS OCCURRING IN THE 850MB TO 700MB LAYER BASED
ON THE RAP. ALL THE NEAR TERM MODELS WERE STRUGGLING WITH THESE
STORMS BASED ON 07Z VERIFICATION. GIVEN THE POOR MODEL PERFORMANCE
WILL BE FOLLOWING THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS, LOCATION OF THE
INSTABILITY AXIS, AND THE RAPS FORECAST OF THE WARMING AT 700MB
TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS MORNING AS A GUIDE FOR EARLY MORNING
CONVECTION ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

FOR THE REST OF TODAY...A SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY TODAY ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND MOVES OUT INTO THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS BY LATE DAY. THE 700MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE
WARMING THROUGH THE DAY AS THE ELEVATED MIXED LAYER SPREADS EAST
INTO WESTERN KANSAS. BY 00Z WEDNESDAY THE 700S MB TEMPERATURES
ACROSS FAR WESTERN KANSAS WILL BE NEAR 14C. DESPITE THESE WARM
TEMPERATURES LATE DAY THERE STILL APPEARS TO BE A CHANCE FOR SOME
WIDELY SCATTERED/ISOLATED CONVECTION ALONG THE SURFACE BOUNDARY IN
EASTERN COLORADO GIVEN THE FORCING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AND LATE
DAY INSTABILITY. WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING AND WARM MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS TUESDAY EVENING ANY
STORM THAT DOES DEVELOP SHOULD WEAKEN/DISSIPATE AS THEY MOVE
EAST/NORTHEAST. PRECIPITATION CHANCES TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE MAINLY
LOCATED NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER AND OCCUR BEFORE MIDNIGHT. AT
THIS TIME GIVEN THE WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURE THE PROBABILITY IS
LOW ENOUGH SO THAT AM LEANING TOWARD NOT MENTIONING THE CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS LATE TODAY NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE TRICKY GIVEN THE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TODAY. MODELS STILL INITIATING A MIXING
DEPTH OF NEAR THE 800MB LEVEL, AND USING THIS THE HIGHS TODAY HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO REACH AROUND 90 DEGREES FOR MUCH OF SOUTHWEST
KANSAS. AT THIS TIME WILL UNDERCUT THESE NUMBERS BY SEVERAL
DEGREES GIVEN THE LOW LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AND MOISTURE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 AM CDT TUE JUN 2 2015

UPPER LEVEL WARM RIDGING CONTINUES INTO MUCH OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS
INTO SATURDAY, WITH A NORTHERN PLAINS TROUGH PUSHING ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST ON SUNDAY. THIS TROUGH WILL BRING A COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. SOME MCS ACTIVITY WILL
LIKELY BE RIDING THE RIDGE ACROSS NEBRASKA ALMOST EVERY NIGHT WITH
SOME THUNDERSTORMS TRYING TO MOVE INTO PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS. THE BEST CHANCES WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE I-70 CORRIDOR ON
THURSDAY MORNING, THEN AGAIN ON FRIDAY MORNING. MORE WIDESPREAD STORM
CHANCES COME INTO WESTERN KANSAS WITH THE COLD FRONT ON THE WEEKEND
INTO MONDAY.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MILD AND IN THE MID AND UPPER 60S. HIGHS WILL
BE WARM AND IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 INTO SUNDAY, THEN COOLING
SLIGHTLY ON MONDAY DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1203 PM CDT TUE JUN 2 2015

A SURFACE TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES THROUGH THE
PERIOD, RESULTING IN SOUTH WINDS AT 10-15KTS. VFR CONDITIONS CAN
BE EXPECTED, ALTHOUGH THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT IFR CIGS COULD
DEVELOP AROUND 12Z AFTER THE LOWER LEVELS COOL TO NEAR SATURATION.
BUT ANY LOW CLOUD WILL QUICKLY ERODE BY 15Z WITH DAYTIME HEATING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  87  64  90  67 /  10  10   0  10
GCK  88  64  90  65 /  10  10  10  10
EHA  93  60  93  63 /  10  10   0  10
LBL  89  62  94  66 /  10  10   0  10
HYS  86  66  87  67 /  10  10  30  40
P28  87  67  90  68 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BURGERT
LONG TERM...KRUSE
AVIATION...FINCH


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