Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 240502
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1202 AM CDT Mon Apr 24 2017

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 1022 PM CDT Sun Apr 23 2017

WV imagery indicates a weak upper level ridge of high pressure
shifting slowly eastward across the Central Plains. Near the surface,
a lee side trough of low pressure is slowly strengthening across
eastern Colorado.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Sun Apr 23 2017

South to southeast winds will continue to increase through this
afternoon, in response to lee trough deepening along I-25 in
Colorado. Gusts near 35 mph are expected, with scattered cirrus.
Most locations will end up within a few degrees of 70 this
afternoon.

Tonight...Windy and much milder than last night. An impressive
low level jet is forecast tonight, with 12z NAM forecasting 850 mb
winds as high as 60-65 kts. As such, winds will remain quite
elevated and gusty overnight, with SE winds continuing to gust
30-35 mph all night. With this mixing, temperatures will struggle
to fall much below 50 at many locations through Monday morning.

Monday...Much warmer. In fact, Monday promises to be the warmest
day of the week. After gusty SW winds for a couple hours after
sunrise, winds will diminish rapidly during the midday hours as
the surface pressure gradient collapses. All model guidance places
a 990-992 mb surface low near Baca county, Colorado by 7 pm, and
expect winds to become SEly in response through Monday afternoon.
Cirrus increasing from the west late in the day. All zones dry.
Went several degrees above MOS guidance, with afternoon highs in
the lower to mid 80s. A delightful spring afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 230 PM CDT Sun Apr 23 2017

Long term forecast for SW Kansas is quite wet, with multiple
rounds of rain showers and embedded thunderstorms expected.
Running the StormTotalQPF tool over the entirety of the long range
grids yields 1-2 inches of rainfall widespread across the CWA.
High confidence more beneficial rainfall is on the way.

Tuesday...Cooler with north winds. Surface low near Dodge City in
the morning sinks southward to near Childress by 7 pm, with SW KS
temperatures reduced to mid 60s north ranging to mid 70s south.
Most of Tuesday will be dry, but showers and a few thunderstorms
are expected across the western zones by late in the day, in
response to a shortwave approaching from Utah.

Rain showers are likely Tuesday night, as dynamic lift increases
ahead of incoming shortwave. Pop grids are in the likely category
across the western and southern zones and are warranted. Rain
showers end from west to east on Wednesday, as compact shortwave
moves to central Oklahoma. Subsidence behind the departing
shortwave will deliver a clearing sky Wednesday, but despite this,
it will be cooler again with afternoon temperatures ranging from
the mid 50s to lower 60s.

A very brief break of dry weather expected late Wednesday, before
another weaker shortwave in the flow spreads lighter, scattered
rain showers across SW Kansas on Thursday. QPF from this shortwave
will be more limited with weaker forcing and moisture supply more
limited. Clouds and showers will work against temperatures,
keeping them in the upper 50s and lower 60s.

12z ECMWF depicts a strong cold closed 544 dm 500 mb low over SW
Idaho at 7 am Friday, then diving the low to southern Utah by
7 pm. Friday is expected to begin dry, but rain showers will
expand in coverage Friday afternoon, and especially Friday night,
as warm advection forcing increases ahead of strong closed low
(547 dm) approaching from the Four Corners. Will include some
mention of thunder southern zones Friday, but at this early stage
of the game, the warm sector and associated severe potential look
to remain south of SW KS. Elevated hail risk across the SE zones
is likely.

Rain shower coverage likely to decrease Saturday as cyclone`s dry
slot will be in the vicinity. Strong cyclone strengthens further
as it ejects into the plains of South Dakota (539 dm) on Sunday.
All rain showers will end by Sunday morning, but temperatures will
remain cool and well below late April normals.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1200 AM CDT Mon Apr 24 2017

VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites through Monday evening.
Southerly winds 15 to 25kt will persist across western Kansas overnight,
then turn more westerly 5 to 15kt late morning into early afternoon
as a lee side trough of low pressure across eastern Colorado begins
pushing into western Kansas.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  49  84  50  72 /   0   0   0  20
GCK  50  83  49  70 /   0   0   0  30
EHA  52  86  52  72 /   0   0   0  30
LBL  50  87  52  74 /   0   0   0  20
HYS  49  80  50  64 /   0   0  10  20
P28  46  80  53  77 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJohnson
SHORT TERM...Turner
LONG TERM...Turner
AVIATION...JJohnson



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