Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 310752
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
252 AM CDT Thu Jul 31 2014

...Update to short term...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 252 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

This morning:

The old 12Z WRF-ARW model indicated the potential for patchy fog across
south-central Kansas early this morning. The new run still supports
this solution, which, in reality, is bearing out with 5 sm visibility
and BR at KPTT. Have patchy fog in the wx grids from Clark to Pratt
counties/and SE this morning. Forecast soundings show an environment
that is conducive for radiation fog, however, the saturated layer is
very thin (as expected with said environment) and dense fog is not expected.
Attributed 1 sm vis in order to get a limited threat index on the EHWO
just for heightened awareness for travelers. This fog will quickly
dissipate by mid morning. Elsewhere, a slightly drier air mass and
a downslope component to the wind vector will limit patchy fog
potential.

Today:

Other than some scattered mid level clouds, a tranquil weather day is
expected with no precipitation and fairly light and variable winds.
Went with slightly cooler with maximum temperatures today as evapotranspiration/
moisture fluxes should result in slightly cooler highs than what the
NAM is suggesting (the model looks too warm and has had a positive bias
this Summer) in where the heavier precipitation axis occurred yesterday.
The warmest will be along the Interstate 70 corridor where drier conditions
have prevailed. Values range from 79F-84F.

Tonight:

Again, quiet weather conditions expected through the overnight. A downslope
component to the wind vector will prevail through tonight into Friday
morning with SSW/SW winds. This will keep minimums up slightly with
values in the 60F-62F range. No precipitation is expected.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

A weak shortwave trough will be progressing southward into the
central plains on the back side of a large, upper level, Great
Lakes trough late Thursday. However, precipitation is not expected
across southwestern Kansas with this system given the lack of
instability and presence of surface high pressure. After this
time, upper level ridging will gradually build into western
Kansas, with minimal chances for rainfall. Surface winds will be
fairly light by western Kansas standard through Saturday, then
increasing to 10-15 mph by Sunday as a weak lee trough develops.
High temperatures will be mainly in the upper 80s, but perhaps
warming to around 90F by Sunday or Monday. Overnight lows will
rise from near 60F Friday to the mid to upper 60s by Monday and
Tuesday as low level moisture and surface winds slowly increase. A
shortwave trough riding over the upper level ridge may approach
western Kansas by Tuesday or Tuesday night, along with chances for
thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

VFR conditions expected through TAF pd. There could be some patchy fog
this morning across south-central Kansas, however, this will probably
be SE of the terminals. Otherwise, some lingering mid level clouds with
no reduction of flight category. Light and variable winds through much
of the day.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  80  61  88  63 /   0   0   0  10
GCK  81  60  87  62 /   0   0  10  10
EHA  80  61  85  62 /   0   0  10  10
LBL  80  62  88  64 /   0   0  10  10
HYS  84  62  90  63 /   0   0  10  10
P28  82  62  89  65 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Sugden
LONG TERM...Finch
AVIATION...Sugden





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