Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 270700
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
200 AM CDT Tue Jun 27 2017

...Updated Long Term...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 1235 AM CDT Tue Jun 27 2017

Weak pulse convection continues to sputter along on various
outflow boundaries early this morning. HRRR takes any activity
south of the KS/OK line by 4 am. Otherwise, expect moist east/SE
upslope flow to yield stratus across the eastern and NE zones
through sunrise. Any stratus will burn off rapidly after sunrise.

Today...windy and warmer. After a pleasant break from the heat and
wind the past few days, it is back to traditional summertime
weather today. It will be a windy day on the plains, with low
pressure near 989mb in western Nebraska inducing strong south
winds across Kansas. Followed the strongest wind guidance
available, with gusts near 40 mph likely (especially west of Dodge
City). GFS progs a pressure gradient of 11 mb across the CWA
5-7 pm, as 850mb winds increase to near 35 kts. With nearly full
sun and efficient mixing, gusts of this 35 kt caliber can be
expected. Instability will increase significantly this afternoon,
in response to moisture advection holding dewpoints in the lower
60s. CAPE in excess of 3000 J/kg is expected across the NE/E zones
by afternoon. However, with the lack of convergence or focusing
mechanisms, opted to keep all zones dry through 7 pm. With strong
warm advection, temperatures will be several degrees warmer than
Monday, with lower 90s common.

Tonight...Still appears primary risk for severe thunderstorms will
be in Nebraska and northern Kansas this evening. Still, 00z
NAM/GFS show excellent agreement forecasting convection to impact
the northern zones this evening, after 7 pm. In our CWA, severe
thunderstorms including possible supercells are most probable
along the I-70 corridor (Trego, Ellis counties) where NAM
forecasts healthy CAPE, shear and EHI. GFS depicts a well-timed
shortwave this evening that may enhance the potential for large
hail and damaging winds. Also, a strong low level jet is
anticipated after sunset tonight, which may serve to improve the
longevity of any storms after sunset. With elevated south winds
and boundary layer moisture, it will be quite warm tonight with
many locales holding near 70.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 200 AM CDT Tue Jun 27 2017

The heating trend continues on Wednesday, with afternoon
temperatures ranging from the mid 90s to near 100 along the
Oklahoma border. Strong instability expected Wednesday afternoon,
as this heat combines with boundary layer dewpoints in the lower
60s. NAM/GFS both show CAPE exceeding 3000 J/kg east and NE of
Dodge City through Wednesday evening. Again, with the lack of
convergence or a triggering mechanism, kept the forecast dry for
all zones through 7 pm Wed. After 7 pm, scattered thunderstorms
are expected NE of a Scott City-Jetmore-Pratt line. Sufficient
midlevel flow near 40 kts and strong CAPE will allow some storms
to produce large hail and damaging winds across the NE zones
Wednesday night into early Thursday morning.

More heat on Thursday, with highs well into the 90s. And again,
most of Thursday will be dry, with subsidence behind the previous
night`s storms and under a strong capping inversion. Most
thunderstorm activity will again wait until after 7 pm, and again
favor the eastern zones near the greatest convergence and
instability. 00z ECMWF continues to depict a large MCS across
central Kansas Thursday evening, which would likely have at least
some impact on our eastern zones. Severe storms again are most
likely in the NE zones (near Hays) Thursday evening, with large
hail possible, from initial supercells before the MCS matures
over central Kansas. 00z GFS offers a strong MCS signature over
the northern CWA Thursday evening, and would suggest severe
weather is likely north of roughly US 50 (with a primary threat of
damaging winds).

Friday will be noticeably milder, with temperatures back into the
80s, after a convective outflow-aided cold front passes Thursday
night. Weak surface high over Kansas and associated NE winds will
finally stabilize the atmosphere, with all zones dry and
convection-free Friday afternoon/night.

A warming trend expected on the first weekend of July, with
temperatures back into the 90s Sunday afternoon.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1200 AM CDT Tue Jun 27 2017

Consensus of short term models is for stratus to spread northward
from near P28 to near HYS through 12z. Included MVFR stratus cigs
in the HYS TAF around sunrise, with a couple hours of IFR cigs
possible. Stratus is expected to remain east of the other
airports. Strong south winds will impact aviation Tuesday, in
response to low pressure in Nebraska. Expect southerly 850mb winds
to increase to near 35 kts through the afternoon, and with good
mixing, gusts of this magnitude are expected. Winds will remain
elevated and gusty 00-06z Wed, in response to a strong low level
jet. Strong instability is expected Tuesday afternoon,
particularly in the vicinity of HYS, where VCTS/CB was included
after 00z Wed. Elsewhere, with a lack of a convective focusing
mechanism, kept the other TAFs dry.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  64  91  71  96 /  20  10  10  10
GCK  62  93  68  94 /  20  10  10   0
EHA  61  91  65  95 /  30  10  10  10
LBL  65  93  69  99 /  30  10  10  10
HYS  61  90  70  93 /  30  10  30  10
P28  65  91  72  97 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Turner
LONG TERM...Turner
AVIATION...Turner


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