Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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000
FXUS63 KDDC 240240
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
940 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

...UPDATE TO SYNOPSIS...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 940 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

WV IMAGERY AND 00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE TRANSITIONING EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. NEAR THE SURFACE, A
WEAK LEE SIDE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDS NEAR AND ALONG THE
COLORADO BORDER. SURFACE DEWPOINTS REMAIN LOCKED IN THE 50S(F)
ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

FAIRLY TRANQUIL WEATHER FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. THERE IS ONE CONCERN
FOR IMPACTS, WHICH IS FOG. THE MODELS ARE UNDER DOING DEWPOINTS RIGHT
NOW AND FEEL THAT TOMORROW MORNING MAY BE ANOTHER GOOD ENVIRONMENT SETUP
TYPE FOR GROUND FOG. THIS WAS HINTED IN SOME OF THE MESOSCALE MODELS
LIKE THE WRF AND SREF. THE FLY IN THE OINTMENT IS THE WINDS. EXPECT
A DOWNSLOPE SOUTHWESTERLY WIND, WHICH, GENERALLY IS NOT FAVORABLE FOR
FOG. HAVE PUT FOG IN FOR THE NORTHERN, NORTHEASTERN, AND EASTERN ZONES
WHERE THE DEWPOINTS SHOULD POOL. FURTHER TO THE SOUTHWEST, THINK THERE
WILL BE MORE PRONOUNCED DRY AIR ADVECTION. OVERNIGHT MINIMUMS WILL BE
WARM FOR OCTOBER STANDARDS AND IN THE 50S. TYPICAL LOWS FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR ARE IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S. FOR TOMORROW, THE WARM TREND
IN TEMPERATURES CONTINUES. 500-HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHTS WILL INCREASE
FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH A STRONG 593 DM ANTICYCLONE LOCATED ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, WHICH IS ABOUT A 9-15 DM POSITIVE ANOMALY FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR. AT THE LOW LEVELS, VERY WARM 850-HPA TEMPERATURES OF 20-25C
ARE EXPECTED, WHICH IS ABOVE THE 75TH PERCENTILE. THE NET RESULT IS
SFC TEMPERATURES MIXING TO THE MID 80S. THIS WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES
BELOW RECORD VALUES, SO MOST SITES SHOULD BE SAFE. POPS WILL REMAIN
AT ZERO PERCENT THROUGH THE ENTIRE SHORT TERM DOMAIN.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

THE STRETCH OF VERY WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND AS
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS AND EXPANDS EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. THE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW PATTERN WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY
DOWNSLOPE AS SLIGHTLY CYCLONICALLY-CURVED FLOW WILL YIELD A
DEEPENING LEE TROUGH BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND. IN FACT, THE SATURDAY
AND PARTICULARLY SUNDAY FORECAST LOOKS WARMER THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST
AS DOWNSLOPE MOMENTUM LOOKS MORE IMPRESSIVE. THE LATEST ECMWF 850MB
TEMPERATURES FOR 00Z MONDAY OF +24 TO +26C SUPPORT HIGHS WELL INTO
THE MID TO PERHAPS UPPER 80S, ESPECIALLY BETWEEN THE ARKANSAS RIVER
TO THE OKLAHOMA BORDER. THE ECMWF HAS A 6-HOUR MAX TEMPERATURE OF
90F NEAR LIBERAL 00Z MONDAY! A DEEP TROUGH AXIS WILL BE DEVELOPING
AND MOVING EAST EARLY NEXT WEEK, WHICH WILL PROVIDE A CHANCE FOR
RAIN OR RAIN SHOWERS (PERHAPS ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IN SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS). THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TIED TO THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BE
FAIRLY STRONG MONDAY, WITH NORTH WINDS USHERING IN COOLER
TEMPERATURES DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE AIRMASS BEHIND THIS FRONT
WILL CERTAINLY BE COOLER, HOWEVER TRUE ARCTIC AIR WILL REMAIN WELL
TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST GIVEN THE DOWNSLOPE MODIFICATION BEHIND THE
FRONT MID-WEEK. HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S SEEM REASONABLE RIGHT
NOW, WHICH IS WHAT THE LATEST SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE HAS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 606 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

A SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS OVERNIGHT AS
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL
RESULT IN SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AT 10KNOTS OR LESS VEERING TO THE
SOUTHWEST. BURF SOUNDINGS INDICATING LESS MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT
AROUND 12Z FRIDAY IN THE LOWERS LEVELS WHEN COMPARED TO BUFR
SOUNDING PROFILES AT 12Z THURSDAY SO ALTHOUGH SOME FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE TOWARDS DAYBREAK...VISIBILITIES ARE NOT ANTICIPATED TO
DROP BELOW MVFR CONDITIONS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE A FEW HOURS
AROUND DAYBREAK AT GCK WHERE VISIBILITIES WILL LIKELY DROP INTO
THE IFR CATEGORY. OTHER THAN SOME EARLY MORNING FOG...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL CONTINUE DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY AT AROUND 10 KNOTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  54  86  54  85 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  50  86  50  84 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  52  87  51  88 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  52  87  51  88 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  54  86  52  82 /   0   0   0   0
P28  56  88  56  87 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJOHNSON
SHORT TERM...SUGDEN
LONG TERM...UMSCHEID
AVIATION...BURGERT



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