Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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000
FXUS63 KDDC 220509
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1209 AM CDT Tue Jul 22 2014

...Updated synopsis and aviation...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1206 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

At 00z Tuesday a 500mb high was located over northeast New Mexico
with an upper level ridge axis extending northeast of this high
into Illinois. One upper level trough was evident at over
northwest Kansas with another, more subtle, upper wave appearing
over Nevada near the nose/left exit region of a 250mb jet.
Anticyclonic flow was present at the 700mb level with temperatures
of +15c at Dodge City and +16c at Amarillo and North Platte at 00z
Tuesday. A area of higher 850mb temperatures, +28c to +31c, were
located from northwest Colorado into eastern South Dakota. This
was also located just ahead of a cold front which extended from
eastern Wyoming to eastern North Dakota. 850mb temperature at
Dodge City at 00z Tuesday was +27c.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 116 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

High pressure aloft will remain centered over southern Colorado and
northern New Mexico through the next 48 hours. This will ensure
very hot surface temperatures will continue, with most of
southwest Kansas rising into the triple digits today and Tuesday.
At the same time, a lee side surface trough will be advancing
into far western Kansas late this afternoon and evening. This
trough will be the focus axis for some convection, and that trough
could push some of those thunderstorms a bit farther east late
this evening. There could be a slight chance for thunderstorms
after midnight in our north and northeast zones, with the surface
trough moving through central Kansas.  In any case, I will not put
very much QPF amounts with these storms.  After the hot afternoon,
the overnight temperatures will be elevated, and generally in the
the lower to mid 70s tonight.  Winds will be southwest early in
the 15-20 MPH range, and then become more southerly as that surface
trough advances farther east and reduce to the 10 to 12 MPH range.

On Tuesday, the upper high pressure system will still be in
control.  However, at the surface, a weak cold front will drop south
from the northern plains and essentially drop into that surface
trough.  This could trigger a few thunderstorms along and near the
front/trough, across our north and western zones late in the afternoon.
Maximum temperatures will likely occur prior to the front moving
south, and thus even the Hays area will likely see 101F readings.
Dew points will again be in the mid 50s in our west to the mid to
upper 60s in our east, which only gives a max heat index of 103F,
just shy of Heat Advisory criteria.  This will need to be watched,
and updated if needed.  Winds on Tuesday should be south at 10 to
12 mph, but shifting to the east in our far eastern counties, on
the other side of the trough.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
ISSUED AT 150 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

A shortwave trough riding over the top of the upper level ridge will
progress from the northern plains today into the Great Lakes by
Tuesday and then into the Middle Atlantic region by Wednesday.
This will help push a cold front into central Kansas by Tuesday
evening and northern Oklahoma by Wednesday morning. There is only
a slight chance of thunderstorms Tuesday evening along a weak
surface trough in far western Kansas and then along the cold front
Tuesday night. Aside from some wind and small hail from these high
based storms in the evening, high-end severe weather is not
expected.

It will be humid Wednesday behind the cold front, especially near
the Oklahoma state line, but with no upper level support or surface
convergence, thunderstorms are not expected. Temperatures should be
several degrees cooler, with highs from 93F near interstate 70 to
around 97F near the Oklahoma state line. By Thursday, a strong upper
level system will move into the northwestern United States, with
ridging extending from the Desert Southwest into western Kansas.
With renewed lee troughing, high temperatures ought to warm back
to the mid and high 90s, with possibly some readings near or over
100F. Little in the way of thunderstorm activity is expected. The
next cold front is expected to pass through western Kansas by
Saturday or Sunday as the upper level system over the northwestern
United States passes over the upper level ridge into the Great
Lakes, with the associated cold front moving through western
Kansas. There is some disagreement from model to model and model
run to model run with the strength of this cold front. Keep in
mind that if the front is stronger, then high temperatures could
drop lower than currently forecasted. Regardless of the solution,
high temperatures ought to drop at least several degrees by Sunday.
There will be small chances for thunderstorms as the front passes.
A more significant cooldown is possible by mid next week as an
even stronger upper level system moves over the ridge and
amplifies over the upper Midwest and Great Lakes regions.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
ISSUED AT 1206 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

Ongoing light precipitation will gradually taper off from
northwest to southeast early this morning with 05z surface
observations, 00z NAM BUFR soundings, and latest HRRR indicating
ceilings will be above the 6000ft AGL level with this
precipitation. Winds will be variable at 10knots or less around
the ongoing precipitation but after 09z become southwest. Wind
speeds will increase to near 15knots by late morning and persist
through the remainder of the day. VFR conditions are also expected
through the day on Tuesday. A weak cold front will approach the
Hays area by early evening allowing for the southerly winds to
shift to the east/northeast between 00z Tuesday and 03z Tuesday.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  72  95  70  98 /  10  10  10  10
GCK  72  96  70  99 /  10  10  10  10
EHA  70  97  70 101 /  20  10  10  10
LBL  70  97  70 101 /  10  10  10  10
HYS  72  93  69  94 /  20  10  10  10
P28  74  97  72  94 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Burgert
SHORT TERM...Burke
LONG TERM...Finch
AVIATION...Burgert





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