Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 261801
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
101 PM CDT Fri May 26 2017

...updated aviation section...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 319 AM CDT Fri May 26 2017

An upper level shortwave, currently moving into southern
California, will trek east northeast today and into the Central
High Plains by this evening. As this disturbance approaches,
mostly clear skies are anticipated across western Kansas. Winds
will start out flowing from a northerly direction this morning,
shifting to a southeasterly direction by this evening. A few
thunderstorms are progged to develop across eastern Colorado late
this afternoon and slide eastward into western Kansas this
evening. The best chance of storms will be across northwest and
west central Kansas but a few could move into the area farther
south across far southwest Kansas. The atmosphere across western
Kansas will be unstable, and any storms that do develop will be
capable of becoming severe with hail over an inch in diameter and
winds over 60 mph being the main concern. These storms are
anticipated to move into central Kansas overnight. Otherwise
expect mostly cloudy skies overnight. As for temperatures, highs
today look to range from the upper 70s across west central Kansas
to mid 80s across south central Kansas. Lows tonight are
forecasted to range from the mid 50s along the KS/CO border to low
60s across south central Kansas.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 319 AM CDT Fri May 26 2017

The next upper level disturbance will move through the area
Saturday which will in turn help push a cold front through the
area. Cloudy skies are expected throughout the day with scattered
showers and thunderstorms possible along and behind the
aforementioned front. Precipitation chances continue into Saturday
night but should wane by midnight. Skies then clear Sunday morning
with mostly clear to partly cloudy skies anticipated through
Tuesday as high pressure dominates the region and an upper level
ridge builds across the western United States. The next chance of
precipitation looks to start Tuesday evening into the middle part
of next week as a series of disturbances move through the area. As
for temperatures, highs Saturday look to range from the lower 70s
across west central Kansas to lower 80s across south central
Kansas. Highs for the remainder of the long term period look to
rise to around 80 degrees each day. Lows look to start out in the
low to mid 50s Saturday night through Monday night then in the mid
to upper 50s for the remainder of the long term period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1244 PM CDT Fri May 26 2017

Discreet thunderstorms moving out of eastern Colorado may
develop as far east as GCK or DDC later this evening, however the
trend is likely for a few storms to be weakening into central
Kansas late evening. Another MCS however will be moving through
northwest Kansas after midnight. Allowing at least the HYS
terminal to see a window of opportunity for convection during the
overnight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  81  59  77  53 /  10  20  20  10
GCK  81  56  74  51 /  10  40  30  20
EHA  83  55  78  50 /  30  20  20  30
LBL  84  57  80  53 /  10  40  20  20
HYS  78  59  72  52 /  10  60  50  10
P28  85  62  83  57 /  10  20  20  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hovorka_42
LONG TERM...Hovorka_42
AVIATION...Russell


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