Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 031750
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1250 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

...UPDATED SHORT TERM AND AVIATION SECTIONS...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH Friday)
ISSUED AT 1248 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

The morning upper air analysis and water vapor loop continued to
reveal a fairly deep longwave trough centered across the coast of
western North America with downstream ridging centered across the
central CONUS. Tropical Storm Kevin in the Eastern Pacific was
responsible for proving a stream of high level moisture (in the form
of cirrus/cirrostratus) into the Rockies and adjacent High
Plains. Lee trough convergence will be best across far eastern
Colorado into northwestern Kansas late this afternoon. This will be
the best area for isolated to widely scattered surface-based
thunderstorm activity. We will have some 15 POPs in far west central
Kansas counties for the possibility of a lee trough storm much like
yesterday late afternoon, however any thunderstorm will be fairly
short lived and quite isolated given the lack of deep tropospheric
forcing for ascent.

The story will be much the same on Friday with the lee trough in
check across eastern CO/northwest KS. A subtropical jet streak will
push northeast from the Desert Southwest region into the Colorado
Rockies, but deep tropospheric ascent tied to this jetlet will be
well to the northwest of the southwest KS region, so the forecast
will remain dry...and hot. As far as temperatures go, persistence is
a good forecast method so highs in the 97 to 100F range look pretty
good for much of the region.

.LONG TERM...(Friday THROUGH Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

Isolated thunderstorms can`t be ruled out through Sunday ahead of
the surface trough in the lee of the Rockies. Again due to the
high dewpoint depressions, only some strong wind gusts are
expected along with the brief heavy rain. These isolated storm chances
will edge eastward by Saturday and Sunday into the remainder of
southwest and central Kansas. Temperatures will be about the same
each day with highs in the mid 90s to near 100F and lows in the
upper 60s to lower 70s.

As the cold front arrives by Sunday night and stalls out over the
central or southern Plains, there are slight chances for
thunderstorms from Sunday night into mid week. The best chances
for storms will be east of the 100th meridian where the richest
moisture will reside. It is too early to tell if these storms will
be severe. However, low level moisture will be increasing during
this period, so some severe weather wouldn`t be a surprise.
Temperatures should be highest along the Oklahoma state line
closer to the front and lower near Interstate 70, with 80s and 90s
most likely. Temperatures may cool off a bit more by late to late
next week as another shortwave trough passes across the northern
plains along with an associated cold front.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z Friday AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1248 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

The south to southwest winds will continue through Friday as we
remain in a quasi-steady synoptic pattern with a moderately deep lee
trough in place across the length of the High Plains. Any isolated
to widely scattered thunderstorm activity will remain west of the
terminals, including GCK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  98  69  98  70 /  10   0   0   0
GCK  99  68  98  69 /  10  10  10  10
EHA  99  68  96  68 /  10  10  10  10
LBL 100  69  96  68 /  10  10  10  10
HYS 100  71  98  72 /  10   0   0   0
P28  99  71  97  73 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Umscheid
LONG TERM...Finch
AVIATION...Umscheid



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