Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 182129
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
329 PM CST Thu Jan 18 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 313 PM CST Thu Jan 18 2018

Cirrus continues to thicken from north to south this afternoon,
making insolation more diffuse across the area. The current light
southwest surface winds will persist though tonight, and Friday as
an upper level shortwave ridge shifts eastward across the area.
Other than the amount of high level cirrus over the area, little
change in the going forecast is expected. The warming trend will
continue into Friday afternoon, with continued weak southwesterly
downslope dry-adiabatic warming.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 313 PM CST Thu Jan 18 2018

The NAM maintains a dry boundary layer with no low level clouds,
through much of the period, until the next synoptic storm develops
over the region on Sunday. Saturday appears similar with highs in
the 50s across central Kansas to the low 70s in the extreme
southwest counties. As for the impending well advertised system
arriving Sunday, the models have thrown no surprises in recent runs,
still maintaining southwest Kansas in the warm sector for much of
the day with a changeover to snow by late day with the potential for
accumulations of an inch or two in the north. All of the models,
including the late frames of the NAM have placed a heavy snow band
across northwest Kansas, extending north-northeast across Nebraska.
Have seen enough consistency to increase precipitation probabilities
with going into Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1059 AM CST Thu Jan 18 2018

Broad westerly downslope flow through the TAF period. Sky will
remain cloud free, other than cirrus, with no surface visibility
restrictions.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  25  63  28  63 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  22  64  27  65 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  26  70  32  71 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  23  65  28  68 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  23  59  25  52 /   0   0   0   0
P28  22  58  30  58 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Russell
LONG TERM...Russell
AVIATION...Russell



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