Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 021102
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
602 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 209 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD IS TRYING TO
FIGURE OUT HOW CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION WILL PLAY OUT. CURRENTLY WATCHING
A LINE OF WEAK SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST COLORADO.
THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE BEFORE DAWN. ATTENTION
THEN TURNS TO THE 15Z-21Z TIME FRAME. CAMS LIKE THE ARW SHOW ADDITIONAL
STORMS FORMING AS A MINOR UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHWEST. SYNOPTICALLY, THERE IS A LITTLE JET STREAK ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS FEATURE. THINK SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE
MID MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON HOURS. BROAD BRUSHED POPS IN THE 50 PERCENT
RANGE, BUT DIDN`T WANT TO GO LIKELY AS CONFIDENCE IS NOT THAT GREAT
IN EXACT PLACEMENT OF STORMS, OTHER THAN THEY WILL LIKELY OCCUR ACROSS
SOUTHWEST KANSAS. THE NAM IS THE STRONGEST WITH INSTABILITY. FEEL THIS
MIGHT BE OVERDONE, ESPECIALLY COMPARED TO THE OTHER GLOBAL MODELS. 1500-2000
J/KG OF CAPE AND 30-40 KT OF BULK SHEAR DO SPELL OUT THE CONCERN FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE LHP FROM THE NAM IS THE HIGHEST DUE TO THE
HIGHER DEWPOINTS/HIGHER CAPE. THINK HAIL SIZE WILL BE TAPERED SOMEWHAT
BY PROBABLY LOWER CAPE AND UPSCALE GROWTH. FORECAST DCAPE OF 1500 J/KG
AND A WELL MIXED LOWER TROPOSPHERE ALSO SPELL OUT THE CONCERN FOR DAMAGING
WINDS. OVERALL, THINK THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF
WALNUTS AND 60 MPH OUTFLOW WINDS. THE OVERALL PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF
THE SYNOPTIC DISTURBANCE SHOULD RESULT IN FAIRLY QUICKLY MOVING STORMS
FROM THE NORTHWEST TO THE SOUTHEAST, SO FLOODING CONCERNS LOOK SMALL
AT THIS TIME.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 209 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION IS IN QUESTION ONCE AGAIN FOR FRIDAY. THIS WILL
DEPEND ON HOW CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS EVOLVE WITH RESULTANT BOUNDARIES AND
IMPACTS FOR ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST ZONES, WHICH IS A BLEND OF THE GLOBAL AND MESOSCALE MODELS.
THE ATMOSPHERE MAY BE PRETTY WORKED OVER AND IT SEEMS MORE PLAUSIBLE
FOR UPSLOPE CONVECTION ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN ZONES FROM STORMS
FORMING ACROSS COLORADO. THE NAM IS A LITTLE BIT EAST THOUGH FOR COMPARISON.
FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY, CONFIDENCE DROPS OFF SIGNIFICANTLY FOR POP PLACEMENT.
HAVE BROAD BRUSHED POPS IN THE SLIGHT CATEGORY FOR THE HOLIDAY, HOWEVER;
IT IS PRETTY DIFFICULT TO NAIL DOWN WEAK THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THIS FAR
OUT. NONE OF THE MODELS ARE SHOWING A REAL STRONG QPF SIGNAL, SO IF
STORMS WERE TO FORM, THEY WOULD PROBABLY BE PRETTY ISOLATED. MAN MADE
LIGHT DISPLAYS WILL PROBABLY BE MORE IMPRESSIVE THAN ATMOSPHERIC. FOR
THE REST OF THE PERIOD, PRETTY MUCH STUCK WITH SUPERBLEND POPS. HIGH
TEMPS THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST DOMAIN WILL BE WARM TO HOT WITH
MILD LOWS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 600 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

AN AREA OF CONVECTION OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA WILL MOVE INTO THE
HAYS AREA BETWEEN 15Z AND 18Z. THESE STORMS WILL THEN TRACK SOUTH
SOUTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
CROSSES WESTERN KANSAS. ISOLATED CONVECTION WAS ALSO BEGINNING TO
DEVELOPING IN THE GCK AREA AT 09Z. BASED ON THE LATEST HRRR THESE
ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS APPEARS TO STAY IN THE GCK AREAS
THROUGH 15Z AND ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS THEY APPROACH DDC FROM
THE WEST. BASED ON 06Z BUFR SOUNDINGS VFR CEILINGS CAN BE
EXPECTED TODAY WITH CEILING ACCOMPANYING THE THUNDERSTORMS RANGING
FROM 3000 TO 6000FT AGL. THE EXCEPTIONS WILL BE AT HAYS WHERE
EARLY THIS MORNING A PERIOD OF MVFR STATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS
EAST WINDS ADVECT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BACK INTO NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS BETWEEN 12Z AND 15Z THURSDAY. THE PREVAILING WINDS OUTSIDE
THE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WILL BE EASTERLY AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  85  66  88  65 /  50  40  20  20
GCK  85  64  88  64 /  50  40  20  20
EHA  90  65  87  65 /  40  30  40  40
LBL  90  66  87  66 /  50  30  30  30
HYS  82  64  88  63 /  50  40  20  20
P28  88  68  89  67 /  50  40  30  30

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SUGDEN
LONG TERM...SUGDEN
AVIATION...BURGERT



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