Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 200542
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1242 AM CDT Sun Aug 20 2017

...Updated Aviation Section...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 256 PM CDT Sat Aug 19 2017

Late day instability near a surface boundary across eastern
Colorado and northwest Kansas will give way to some widely
scattered thunderstorms through early this evening as an upper
level trough, located over southern Wyoming at 12z Saturday, moves
across northeast Colorado and northwest Kansas. These storms that
do develop in this area this afternoon will move northeast and
weaken towards sunset. As the upper trough crosses northern
Kansas early this evening there will also be a chance for
convection across north central Kansas. These storms will have a
better chance for continuing into the overnight period given the
location of the 0-1KM Theta-e ridge axis and 850mb warm air
advection ahead of the upper wave. A few of these storms early
this evening will be capable of producing strong gusty winds and
hail up to the size of quarters.

On Sunday a surface trough will still be located over eastern
Colorado and a cold front will move into northern Kansas by late
day as an upper level trough crosses the norther Plains. Just
south of this cold front unseasonably warm temperatures will
continue and based on the 24 hour temperature trends from 00z
Sunday to 00z Monday. The highs Sunday afternoon are expected to
range from the mid to upper 90s...especially in west central and
north central Kansas. The cooler temperatures will be located in
extreme southwest Kansas.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 256 PM CDT Sat Aug 19 2017

An upper high will be located over the eastern Southern Plains
late this weekend and a southwesterly flow can be expected from
Old Mexico to the West Central Highs Plains. This southwesterly
flow will begin to draw a deeper layer of moisture northward and
several subtle upper waves embedded in this flow are forecast to
cross western Kansas Sunday evening and again on Monday. A chance
for thunderstorms, some capable of producing heavy rainfall, will
be possible as any one of these upper level waves pass. At this
time it appears the better chances for convection for western
Kansas will be late Monday based on the location of a surface
boundary late Monday and the timing of one of these upper level
disturbances crossing the West Central High Plains.

The chance for convection will continue on Tuesday as surface
cold front crosses southwest Kansas during the day and a northern
branch upper level trough exits the Rockies and begins to cross
the Central and Northern Plains. This surface boundary will slowly
move south into northern Oklahoma Tuesday night and behind this
surface boundary a surface ridge axis will begin to build into the
Central Plains as an upper level ridge axis develops along the
Rockies. There will continue to be a chance for convection along
this boundary as it moves south late Tuesday and Tuesday night and
there will still be a chance for storms near the Oklahoma border
through Tuesday night.

On Wednesday the cold front is expected to be located in the
Panhandle of Texas and across southern Oklahoma. The chance for
mid to late week convection will be shifted west/southwest to a
developing trough of low pressure over eastern Colorado as a
southerly up slope flow develop ahead of this boundary across
eastern Colorado and southwest Kansas. Any precipitation chances
mid will primarily be focused to extreme southwest Kansas and near
the Colorado border. Precipitation chances then appear to
improve late week as a stronger upper level trough exits the
Rockies and moves out into the West Central High Plains.

As for temperatures...Unseasonably warm conditions can be
expected across western Kansas until the cold front passes on
Tuesday. After this frontal passes the next shot off cooler air
will filter into western Kansas. Highs mid to late week will be
only in the 80s. Lows could possibly fall back into the 50s
Wednesday night and possibly even Thursday night.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1240 AM CDT Sun Aug 20 2017

Fairly quiet aviation weather should continue through the forecast
period. No major wind shift is forecast, with a continuation of
south winds through Sunday Night. Wind speeds late morning through
afternoon will be 12 to 15 knots sustained with some gusts in the
lower 20s knots. High level cloud cover will overspread the region
later in the day, but ceiling will be well above MVFR category.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  69  97  71  91 /  10  10  20  30
GCK  67  98  69  88 /  10  10  20  30
EHA  66  91  66  85 /  10  20  20  30
LBL  70  95  69  89 /   0  10  20  30
HYS  70  97  71  90 /  20  20  20  40
P28  72  98  74  95 /  20  10  20  20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Burgert
LONG TERM...Burgert
AVIATION...Umscheid



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