Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 291744
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1244 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

...Updated short term and synopsis sections...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1243 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

As upper level ridge of high pressure extends from the Desert
Southwest northeast through the Central Plains and into Great
Lakes region. Meanwhile, two upper level long wave troughs are
present with one entering the Pacific Northwest and the other
entering the eastern United States. The 12Z sounding shows large
dew point depressions from the upper levels to somewhat close to
the surface which is leading to mostly clear skies. At the
surface, a ridge axis of high pressure extends from central
Nebraska into southeastern Colorado. This leads to north to
northeast winds across a majority of western Kansas with southerly
winds across the remainder of eastern Colorado and western
Nebraska.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH Sunday)
ISSUED AT 1243 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

Mostly clear skies and dry conditions are expected to continue
tonight into tomorrow with some elevated smoke from wildfires
across the Pacific Northwest. Winds become light and variable
overnight as the ridge axis slides through the area. Southerly
winds return by sunrise tomorrow as lee troughing develops across
eastern Colorado. As for temperatures, lows overnight look to fall
to around 60 degrees with highs tomorrow reaching into the lower
90s.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday THROUGH Friday)
ISSUED AT 222 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

Forecast concern in the long term was addressed previously. That is
maximum temperatures in the extended. Models are trending warmer next
week and boise verification is showing that the warmer solutions are
verifying better. As a result, have gone with mos guidance for
highs. Highs will increase each day, and the first half of next
week has a good chance of seeing mid to upper 90s. Lows will trend
warmer too with 60s and mostly 70s to close out the extended
period. For precipitation, there is only a slight chance near the
Colorado border along the trough Monday night. A slight chance
exists again for Tuesday as a minor wave moves out along with
convection. Any storms will remain isolated with much of the
region probably seeing no storms. The superblend pops look
reasonable for now.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z Sunday MORNING)
ISSUED AT 655 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

Broad surface high pressure will continue to provide light surface
winds and VFR flight categories at KDDC, KGCK. KHYS is likely to
remain VFR as well, however, stratus moving south through north
central Kansas will have to be monitored for for the next few hours
for potential amendment.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  92  60  91  64 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  92  59  92  63 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  90  60  93  65 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  91  61  93  65 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  92  59  91  64 /   0   0   0   0
P28  91  60  92  67 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Hovorka_42
SHORT TERM...Hovorka_42
LONG TERM...Sugden
AVIATION...Russell



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