Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KDDC 280827
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
327 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

AN AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OF 1012 MB WAS CENTERED NEAR ELKHART
WHILE A STATIONARY FRONT WAS POSITIONED FROM SW NEBRASKA ACROSS
EXTREME NORTHERN KANSAS. WIDESPREAD CONVECTION WAS STILL ONGOING
ACROSS NEBRASKA, JUST NORTH OF THE FRONT AS OF 3 AM, AS THE MCS
CONTINUED TO SHOW COOLING CLOUD TOPS ON INFRARED SATELLITE. AN
AREA OF PRECITATIBLE WATER IN EXCESS OF AN INCH AND A HALF WAS
LOCATED FROM HIGHWAY 283 WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS MOVING EASTWARD IN
KANSAS WITH WIDESPREAD MID 60`S SURFACE DEW POINTS. AN UPTICK IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS WAS BEGINNING AGAIN ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSASAS
WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

A FEW SCATTERED RESIDUAL SHOWERS MAY OCCUR THIS MORNING ESPECIALLY
EAST OF THE HIGHWAY 183 CORRIDOR, AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 96. THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA BY 12 Z WITH DRY CONDITIONS
LIKELY THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. MODELS INDICATE ANOTHER
SEASONABLY NEAR NORMAL DAY WITH HIGHS ONLY RISING INTO THE 80S
(WARMEST IN THE EAST).

CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS INCLUDING THE NAM, NMM AND ARW WRF`S SHOW
REDEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION ALONG THE 850-700 MB MOISTURE
ADVECTION/CONVERGENCE ZONE, WHICH MAY BE WHAT IS ACTIVELY ONGOING
THIS MORNING. IF CONVECTION REDEVELOPS IT SHOULD MAINLY ONLY AFFECT
THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST SECTIONS OF THE WARNING AREA. THIS WILL NOT
ACCOUNT FOR THE POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT ALONG ANY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
THAT COULD INFLUENCE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
THE MORE ORGANIZED AND BETTER OPPORTUNITY FOR PRECIPITATION/HEAVY
RAIN HOWEVER SHOULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE INVADING UPPER LOW DURING
THE EVENING, AND WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY/PV ANOMALY. HOWEVER, EVEN
WITH THIS FORCING FEATURE, THE MODELS ARE NOT ALL IN VERY GOOD
AGREEMENT ON CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT FOR THIS EVENING, AS THE NAM IS
SLIGHTLY MORE AGRESSIVE THAN THE ARW RUNS WHILE ALL SUGGEST
SCATTERED ACTIVITY AS OPPOSED TO ANY LONG LIVED LARGE LINEAR
CONVECTION. WITH RESPECT TO TEMPORAL POPS WE`VE USED THE NAM
SPATIALLY WITH SOME ADJUSTMENT FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS. HIGH MUCAPES IN THE AFTERNOON SHOULD DECREASE RAPIDLY
WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL INSOLATION. A BRIEF PERIOD FOR SEVERE
CANNOT BE RULED OUT HOWEVER A HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED FLOODING
THREAT IS MORE LIKLEY IN THIS ENVIRONMENT.


.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 128 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER ACROSS CENTRAL AND
EASTERN PORTIONS OF WESTERN KANSAS FRIDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE PUSHES EASTWARD OUT OF THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY IN THE PERIOD. AS THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION, A PREVAILING SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO DRAW MOISTURE UP INTO CENTRAL KANSAS AHEAD OF A SURFACE
TROUGH EDGING EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA. MEANWHILE, A +60KT UPPER
LEVEL JET CORE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE IS PROJECTED TO LIFT
NORTHEAST AS IT SHIFTS EAST ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS. ALONG
WITH THE INCREASED DYNAMIC SUPPORT ALOFT PRESENT, SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY EARLY FRIDAY ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS IN A
CORRIDOR OF INCREASED INSTABILITY ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE SURFACE
TROUGH AS IT MOVES THROUGH. DRIER CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED
ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE KICKS EAST OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS WHILE WEAK RIDGING
ALOFT MOVES OUT OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS.

BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY AS SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR
BEGINS TO FILTER SOUTHWARD INTO WESTERN KANSAS IN WAKE OF THE
SURFACE TROUGH PASSING THROUGH. THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW H85
TEMPERATURES AROUND 20C ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS WITH NEAR 25C IN
EXTREME SOUTHWEST KANSAS. ALTHOUGH INCREASED CLOUD COVER MAY BE
PRESENT EARLY IN THE DAY, LOOK FOR HIGHS GENERALLY UP INTO THE LOWER
TO MID 80S(F) FRIDAY AFTERNOON. A WARMING TREND IS THEN EXPECTED
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TRANSITIONS EAST
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 114 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS MAY REDEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH AROUND 12 UTC AND MAINLY AFFECT THE HYS
TERMINAL. THIS IS A LOW PROBABILITY OCCURRENCE HOWEVER, WITH BETTER
CHANCES FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION REDEVELOPING AFTER 21 UTC THURSDAY
AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  86  63  86  61 /  30  60  40  20
GCK  84  62  86  59 /  10  50  20  20
EHA  83  61  88  61 /  20  30  20  10
LBL  86  64  87  61 /  50  60  20  20
HYS  85  65  85  61 /  40  70  40  20
P28  88  67  87  66 /  40  50  40  40

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RUSSELL
SHORT TERM...RUSSELL
LONG TERM...JJOHNSON
AVIATION...RUSSELL


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.