Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS
FXUS63 KDDC 160758
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
258 AM CDT Wed Apr 16 2014
...Updated long term section...
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 234 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014
With comparison to last night, fairly "mild" lows are expected tonight.
Really, these values are close to climo. Expecting mid to upper 30sF
across the western zones to around 40F across the central and eastern
zones. There will be some high level clouds drifting in from the NW,
but no other significant weather impacts expected. S/SW winds of 5
to 20 mph expected through the overnight.
A frontal passage is expected tomorrow. Given the dry low level atmosphere,
no precipitation is expected during the short term period. There will
be mid to high level clouds, but that is about it. A gradient of temperatures
with 60sF across west-central Kansas to lower 70sF across south-central
Kansas is expected. No anticipating any fire weather concerns due to
marginal relative humidities.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 257 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014
An upper level shortwave is progged to move through the Central
High Plains Wednesday night into Thursday bringing increased clouds
with a chance of precipitation. Models are a lot warmer than what
they were last night and have decided to go with all rain as the
type of precipitation. There could be a few snow flakes mixed in
across west central Kansas but no measurable accumulation is
expected at this time. Winds will generally be from the northeast
throughout the day with highs in the lower 50s.
Clouds will decrease in coverage Thursday night with mostly clear
skies expected on Friday. This is due to an upper level ridge
building above the Plains. Winds will shift back to more of a
southerly direction during this time frame. However, this will be
short lived as an upper level shortwave moves through the Southwest
United States and Four Corners Region Friday then into the Central
Rockies and Central Plains on Saturday. Clouds will be on the
increase Friday night as this system approaches with a chance of
thunderstorms Saturday into Saturday night. Additional isolated
thunderstorms will be possible again on Sunday with decreasing
cloudiness in the afternoon as the system exits the area. As for
temperatures, highs look to reach into the 70s Friday through Sunday
with lows Friday morning in the lower to mid 30s. Lows Saturday
morning will generally be in the upper 40s with lows Sunday morning
ranging from the upper 40s across west central Kansas to mid 50s
across south central Kansas.
The remainder of the extended period looks dry with upper level
ridging building across the Rockies and southerly winds at the
surface. Skies should be partly cloudy. Highs Monday and Tuesday
look to be in the 70s with lows around 50 degrees.
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
ISSUED AT 1252 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014
South winds will remain fairly strong at 18 to 22 knots through
the night until about 10-12Z as the gradient starts to relax with
the approaching front. There will be a roughly 3 hour period of
southwest to west winds at 8 to 12 knots, but with the frontal
passage mid to late morning, winds will become northerly with
speeds of 12 to 15 knots. VFR conditions are expected to prevail
through the period given the absence of low level moisture
advection from the south.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 69 40 52 34 / 0 50 70 10
GCK 64 39 53 34 / 0 60 50 10
EHA 65 40 52 34 / 0 60 50 10
LBL 67 41 53 33 / 0 50 60 10
HYS 66 36 52 33 / 0 60 50 10
P28 73 44 53 35 / 0 40 70 10