Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 142327
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
627 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Widespread high or even moderate impact weather not expected
  through the entire 7 day period, including Fire Weather thanks
  to periodic weak, dry cold front passages in the northwest
  flow pattern.

- In the far extended, we will be monitoring a potential
  significant pattern change toward colder temperatures
  (beginning around 21 or 22 March?)

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 348 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024

A major mid-tropospheric cyclone continued to spin over the
Southwest CONUS with the 500mb low center near Las Vegas, NV. The
influence of this gyre is rather far-reaching with severe local
storms from eastern Oklahoma into the Ozarks and a major snow storm
gripping the Front Range of Colorado. In between: Not much across
southwest Kansas -- and it will remain that way through the Short
Term period. Stratus clouds will continue across much of western
Kansas keeping temperatures down in the 10-25th percentile of the
model envelope. The updated forecast will continue with a 10-25th
percentile of NBM, which brings updated highs on Friday from the
upper 40s around Elkhart to the mid 50s at Dodge to around 60 across
the Red Hills. The cloud situation on Friday will improve, with a
clearing sky first across central Kansas, eventually reaching far
southwest Kansas by late in the afternoon. This is the reason why
our far southwest KS area will have the coolest forecast highs.
Outside of a few sprinkles here and there, no additional wetting
rain is forecast through the Short Term period.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 348 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024

The Las Vegas Low will eventually spin itself out during the Long
Term period as remains cut off from the primary branch of the polar
westerlies. The dominant branch of the westerlies will be rather
amplified with deep troughing across the eastern CONUS and ridging
across the Northwest. This will keep western Kansas in a north-
northwest flow pattern. This is a very cold pattern for western
Kansas as we will only see glancing shots of low level cold
advection, the strongest of which on Sunday. Mid-upper 20s for lows
still looks pretty good for Monday morning as a large surface high
moves out across the Central Plains.

Heading deeper into next week, the large scale pattern will once
again become very split with a northern branch moving across
southwest Canada (broadly ridged) and a southern branch moving
across Baja California into Mexico. The re-strengthening of the
southern branch will help capture the decaying Las Vegas Low, moving
it along the southern branch flow pattern mid next week.

An interesting pattern change is in store for the 21-25 March time
frame. There is high confidence in a very large reservoir of arctic
air build-up across the Canadian Prairies due to upstream
amplification of the jet stream across the Gulf of Alaska. The last
couple runs of the EPS has shown the retrogression of positive 500mb
height anomalies from western Canada to southern Alaska supporting a
colder pattern up north across the Canadian Prairies. The EPS
suggest a mean trough/low 500mb height anomalies on the 5-day mean
21-26 March across much of the CONUS. If we start to see other
global ensemble systems lock in to this like the ECMWF EPS, we will
be increasing the probability of much below normal temperatures in
the 21-26 March time frame across the central and northern Great
Plains. Given the time of year, any time a significant arctic air
mass pushes deep south into the Central Plains, significant
baroclinicity will likely exist, supporting one or more substantial
mid-latitude cyclones.

We are already starting to see this reflected in the NBM with
probability of highs in the 30s at 10-15% across west central Kansas
March 23rd and March 24th. This is certainly something we will be
monitoring as we get closer to the 21-26 March time frame.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 624 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024

Ceilings will lower to below 1500 ft AGL level overnight behind
a reinforcement of colder air as gusty boundary layer northeast
winds spread into southwest Kansas. Based on HREF ceiling
chances, it appears that there is a 60-80% chance for these
ceilings to develop after 06z Friday for Garden City, Dodge City
and Liberal. In the Hays area there is a 30-40% chance for
ceilings this low between 03z and 09z Friday. Patchy drizzle
overnight with these low clouds can not be completely ruled out.
Ceilings will then gradually improve into the VFR category
early Friday. North northeast winds will be at around 15
overnight and early Friday. The winds will then decrease to
around 10 after 21z Friday as an area of high pressure at the
surface begins to build into western Kansas.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Umscheid
LONG TERM...Umscheid
AVIATION...Burgert


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