Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 230859
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
259 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

...UPDATED FOR THE LONG TERM FORECAST...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 205 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS PROGRESSING ACROSS TEXAS TODAY; BUT ALL
THE PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM WAS CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. AN UPSTREAM KICKER SYSTEM WAS DIGGING INTO THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES THIS AFTERNOON. A SURFACE LEE TROUGH WAS DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS IN ADVANCE OF THIS UPPER SYSTEM. SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS HAVE ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO
THE 60S ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN KANSAS, WITH A 70F READING AT
LIBERAL. FARTHER EAST, LOW LEVEL CLOUDS LINGERED, WITH MEDICINE
LODGE ONLY AT 51 DEGREES AS OF 2 PM.

WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING, LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONFINED TO
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON WILL ADVECT NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD THIS EVENING, RESULTING IN LOW STRATUS MOVING BACK
INTO HAYS AND DODGE CITY. FOG MAY DEVELOP AT DODGE CITY EARLY
TONIGHT BEFORE THE LOW LEVEL WINDS VEER TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT. FOG MAY DEVELOP IN AREAS EAST OF DODGE CITY
LATER TONIGHT. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE ROCKIES WILL PASS ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS SUNDAY MORNING. AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH, SOME LIGHT RAIN
OR DRIZZLE ARE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY, MAINLY IN
CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL HE HELD UP INTO THE LOWER 50S BY CLOUD COVER
AND HIGH DEWPOINTS IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS, WHILE UPPER 30S CAN BE
EXPECTED IN FAR WESTERN KANSAS WHERE SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL
OCCUR AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON
WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S IN FAR WESTERN KANSAS TO THE LOWER
50S IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

BY MONDAY, AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL HAVE PASSED TO THE EAST OF
OUR FORECAST AREA, AND STRONG NORTHWESTERLY, DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL
TAKE OVER. THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL HAVE ENDED AND MONDAY
SHOULD BE MOSTLY SUNNY, WITH SLOWLY REBOUNDING TEMPERATURES
FOLLOWING. LOWER 50S FOR HIGHS WILL CREEP NORTH INTO THE THE
SOUTHERN SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS MONDAY, WHILE AREAS NORTH AND
NORTHWEST WILL STRUGGLE TO GET INTO THE MID 40S, FROM HAYS TO
SYRACUSE. THE NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE BREEZY,
BUT THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX BY MID AFTERNOON AND WINDS
SHOULD SUBSIDE TO AROUND 12 TO 15 MPH. CLEAR SKIES AND NORTHWEST
WINDS AROUND 10 MPH OR LESS WILL LEAD TO A COOL NIGHT MONDAY NIGHT
WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S. THE SLOW WARM UP WITH RUN
THROUGH WEDNESDAY, WITH MAX TEMPS REACHING THE LOWER TO UPPER 50S
BY WEDNESDAY. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE SOMEWHAT AS
CLOUDS START TO INCREASE ON TUESDAY NIGHT. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL
AVERAGE IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.

AS FOR THANKSGIVING, THE MODELS HAVE NOW SHIFTED FARTHER EAST WITH
THE AFOREMENTIONED BACKDOOR COLD FRONT. THE BRUNT OF THE COLD AIR
WILL STAY WELL EAST OF OUR CWA, AND A SOUTHWEST FLOW AT THE
SURFACE WILL AID IN WARMING THANKSGIVING AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
INTO THE LOWER 60S NEAR ELKHART, THE LOWER TO MID 50S FROM
MEDICINE LODGE TO DODGE CITY TO GARDEN CITY, AND THE MID 40S IN
THE HAYS AREA. SOME MODELS ARE EVEN SUGGESTING OUR FORECAST AREA
COULD BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER ON THANKSGIVING AND THE NEXT DAY,
FRIDAY. SKIES WILL CLEAR AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT, WITH MIN
TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE 20S NORTH OF I-70, AND RANGE TO THE
LOWER 30S NEAR ELKHART AND LIBERAL. RIGHT NOW, THE ECMWF MODEL IS
HANGING ON TO BRING THAT COLD FRONT IN AS A BACKDOOR FRONT
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, BUT THE GFS AND CANADIAN MODELS PUSH WARMER
AIR INTO SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS. THE SUPERBLEND SOLUTION WILL PREVAIL
FOR NOW, BUT THE NEXT MODEL RUNS MAY WARM US UP EVEN MORE FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

AS FOR SATURDAY, THE SAME PATTERN HOLDS TRUE WITH THE SUPERBLEND
MODEL PLACING COLD AIR IN OUR NORTHEAST ZONES, BASICALLY NORTHEAST
OF A LINE FROM LAKIN SOUTHEAST TO PRATT, FORECASTING MID 40S FOR
HIGHS. IN OUR SOUTHWEST SECTIONS AROUND SYRACUSE, ELKHART AND
MEADE, HIGHS SATURDAY ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S.
MIN TEMPERATURES FOR FRI AND SAT MORNING SHOULD BE IN THE MIDDLE
TO UPPER 20S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1141 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

BIG CHANGES COMING TO THE DDC, HYS, AND GCK TERMINALS LATER THIS
MORNING AS A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES SWIFTLY THROUGH WESTERN AND
CENTRAL KANSAS. INITIALLY FOR THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT, A LARGE
PATCH OF IFR TO MVFR CLOUD COVER WILL DOMINATE THE TERMINALS
ALTHOUGH WITH GUSTY SOUTH WINDS FOG WILL NOT BE A PROBLEM.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TOWARD MID MORNING AS WINDS SHIFT QUICKLY TO
THE NORTH AT 30 TO 35 KTS WITH GUSTS ABOVE 40 KTS. FURTHER, A
NARROW BAND OF RAIN MIXED WITH SNOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TERMINALS
DURING THE LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  49  26  48  24 /  50   0   0   0
GCK  48  22  47  22 /  40   0   0  10
EHA  47  26  49  23 /  20   0   0  10
LBL  48  23  50  23 /  30   0   0   0
HYS  48  26  46  22 /  60  10   0   0
P28  53  29  52  26 /  40  10   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FINCH
LONG TERM...BURKE
AVIATION...AJOHNSON


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