Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 250525
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1125 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

...UPDATED FOR THE AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. ANY PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN WELL
WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL DECREASE THIS EVENING
TO THE 5 TO 15 MPH RANGE. MINIMUMS EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 20 ACROSS
THE WESTERN ZONES TO LOWER 20S ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ZONES.
FOR TOMORROW, SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE LEE TROUGH
WITH WINDS INCREASING 15 TO 30 MPH. AGAIN, SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
BE POSSIBLE TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
AND ASSOCIATED TRAVERSING TROUGH. MAXIMUMS WILL BE IN THE 50S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

A VERY MILD WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE IN THE CARDS FOR THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND...AT LEAST THROUGH SATURDAY...AS A BROAD ANTICYCLONICALLY
CURVED PATTERN SETS UP ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND ADJACENT WESTERN
PLAINS. THE PREVIOUS FEARS OF A COLD AND POTENTIALLY WET
THANKSGIVING END OF THE WEEK ARE NOW A DISTANT MEMORY AS JUST THE
OPPOSITE WILL BE HAPPENING. WE HAVE TO GET THROUGH ONE MORE SUBTLE
NORTHWEST FLOW SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSAGE TO OUR NORTH LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT (TRACKING FROM THE DAKOTAS INTO NORTHEAST KANSAS/NORTHWEST
MISSOURI/SOUTHWEST IOWA) BEFORE WE CAN BEGIN OUR WARM-UP. WEDNESDAY
TEMPERATURES IN THE WAKE OF THIS FEATURE WERE LOWERED QUITE A BIT (8
TO 12 DEGF ACROSS THE AREA) AS REMNANT COLD AIR WILL BE TOUGH TO
DISLODGE AND LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BE VERY WEAK RESULTING IN VERY
LIMITED MIXING.

DOWNSLOPE MOMENTUM WILL CRANK UP IN THE 900-800MB LAYER ACROSS THE
HIGH PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A 24-HR 850MB TEMPERATURE INCREASE
OF ABOUT +12C ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS. THE WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY
MOMENTUM WILL CONTINUE ABOVE THE SURFACE THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY,
BUT THE SURFACE FLOW WILL MOST LIKELY BE SOUTH OR SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. THIS WILL PREVENT DEEP
MIXING, AND WHILE A WARM-UP INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S IS
ANTICIPATED, THE WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL BE FOUND WAY OUT WEST
TOWARD ELKHART WHERE SURFACE MOMENTUM WILL BE DOWNSLOPE AND MIXING
WILL BE DEEP. MID TO UPPER 60S ARE LIKELY THURSDAY OUT THERE.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, THIS WARMTH WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF
THE REGION WITH WIDESPREAD LOWER TO MID 60S AND NEAR 70 ACROSS FAR
SOUTHWEST KANSAS.  THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS TODAY SHOW AN ARCTIC
AIRMASS CHARGING BACK SOUTH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT, THOUGH, WHICH WILL
LEAD TO TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN TO WINTER REALITY INTO THE 30S AND
40S. THE TIMING OF THE FRONT REMAINS IN QUESTION AT 6 DAYS OUT, OF
COURSE, BUT AS OF RIGHT NOW WE COULD BE LOOKING AT SUNDAY HIGHS IN
THE MORNING IN THE UPPER 40S WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING RAPIDLY INTO
THE 20S OR 30S BY AFTERNOON. THE DAY 7-10 PERIOD LOOKS INTERESTING
AS THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SHOW A TROUGH DEVELOPING OUT ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST REGION, BUT IT IS WAY TOO EARLY AND EXTREMELY UNCLEAR HOW
THIS WILL ALL AFFECT SENSIBLE WEATHER ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS AND
ADJACENT REGION IN THE DEC 1-4 TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1121 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

VFR WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL EXIST THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD.
THERE IS SOME MID LEVEL ALTOCUMULUS CLOUDS MOVING THROUGH,
GENERALLY AROUND SCT TO BKN AT 090. LATER ON TUESDAY AROUND 15Z,
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST AT 15G25 KNOTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  23  51  29  50 /   0   0  10  10
GCK  20  52  28  50 /   0   0  10   0
EHA  23  53  31  52 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  22  53  28  52 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  22  50  29  44 /   0   0  10  10
P28  23  52  31  51 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SUGDEN
LONG TERM...UMSCHEID
AVIATION...BURKE


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