Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 020946
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
346 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

...UPDATED SHORT TERM SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 341 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

A STRONG RIDGING UPPER JET WILL INTENSIFY ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST
TODAY, INTENSIFYING THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. ADDITIONALLY A BROAD RIDGE OF SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TODAY,
CREATING A SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT  ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
AND STRONG SOUTHERLY  WINDS. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE INDICATING
IMPRESSIVE BOUNDARY LAYER WARM ADVECTION  TODAY AS A RESULT OF THIS
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW, HOWEVER THE MAGNITUDE OF WARMUP MAY BE
IMPEDED BY INCREASING STRATUS ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS INTO CENTRAL
KANSAS BY LATE IN THE DAY. ADDITIONALLY  THE NMM/ARW AND THE NAM ALL
SHOW SMALL AREAL COVERAGE OF A TRACE TO 0.01" QPF THIS AFTERNOON
ASSOCIATED WITH WARM MOIST ADVECTION. THIS MIGHT INDICATE A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION, HOWEVER THE NAM AND GFS THERMODYNAMIC
MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE IMPRESSIVE DRY LAYERS IN THE MID LEVELS
AND NEAR THE GROUND WHICH ARE NOT VERY CONDUSIVE TO GETTING
HYDROMETEORS TO THE SURFACE. PRECIPITATION MAY NOT BE LIKELY
HOWEVER CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE TODAY. OVERCAST SKIES WILL
LIKELY IMPEDE INSOLATION, KEEPING TEMPERATURES FROM CLIMBING MUCH
ABOVE THE FREEZING POINT ON THE LOWER PLAINS OF CENTRAL KANSAS
HOWEVER, WARMER TEMPERATURES INTO THE 40S MAY BE POSSIBLE IN THE
FAR SOUTHWEST SECTIONS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE FELT ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS MONDAY
NIGHT WITH AN AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN COLORADO. THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SHIFT
EASTWARD AS TIME PROGRESSES DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING
INTO THE ROCKIES. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST INTO
THE PLAINS TUESDAY PUSHING A STRONG SURFACE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA WITH AN ARCTIC DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND IT. STRONG
NORTHERLY WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED BEHIND IT WITH TEMPERATURES
FALLING ACROSS THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON. LOWER AND MID LEVELS OF
THE ATMOSPHERE BECOME SATURATED TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
LEADING TO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. LITTLE TO NOW
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE SKIES WILL BE
MOSTLY CLOUDY. WINDS SHIFT BACK TO THE SOUTH BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. CLOUDS WILL ALSO
DECREASE IN COVERAGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE
AREA. THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED LOOKS DRY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES PLACING NORTHWEST
KANSAS IN A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. MODELS SUGGEST A SHORTWAVE
MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THIS FLOW TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK BUT
AS OF NOW THIS FEATURE ONLY INCREASES CLOUD COVER SLIGHTLY. AS FOR
TEMPERATURES, LOWS MONDAY NIGHT REMAIN WARM AND IN THE LOW TO MID
30S. A LARGE RANGE OF TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY DUE TO THE
AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH EARLY IN THE DAY. HIGHS
TUESDAY LOOK TO RANGE FROM THE MID 30S ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS
TO UPPER 40S ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. A COLD DAY IS EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MORNINGS
AND HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S IN THE AFTERNOON. A WARMING TREND IS
THEN EXPECTED AS WE HEAD INTO THE END OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS IN
THE 40S THURSDAY AND AROUND THE MID 50S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. LOWS
LOOK TO DIP INTO THE 20S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1147 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

COLD UPSLOPE AIR ENTRENCHED INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WAS PROMOTING
SOME STRATUS CLOUDS ACROSS EXTREME SW KS. THE TREND WAS FOR THIS
STRATUS TO CONTINUE MOVING AWAY FROM THE LOCAL TERMINALS. THIS TREND
SHOULD CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AS STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER WARM AIR
ADVECTION AND DOWNSLOPE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE AREA. SOUTHERLY SURFACE
WINDS WILL BECOME WINDY AT AROUND 20 KNOTS SUSTAINED MONDAY
MORNING.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  36  32  42  15 /  10  10  10  20
GCK  37  30  38  13 /  10  10  10  30
EHA  41  35  44  15 /  10  10  10  30
LBL  40  30  45  16 /  10  10  10  30
HYS  34  31  37  12 /  10  10  10  30
P28  35  33  46  18 /  10  10  10  20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RUSSELL
LONG TERM...HOVORKA_42
AVIATION...RUSSELL


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