Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 221853
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
153 PM CDT Thu Jun 22 2017

...Updated Short Term and Long Term Discussions...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 151 PM CDT Thu Jun 22 2017

A surface cold front will extend from west central and north
central Kansas by late day. A surface trough of low pressure will
extend south from this cold front into extreme southwest Kansas.
Scattered convection once again is expected to develop along these
boundaries after 2 pm and given the model soundings and DCAPE it
appears that the main hazard from these storms late day/early
tonight will be strong gusty winds of 60 to 70 mph. Brief heavy
rainfall and some hail can also be expected. Hail mainly up to the
size of quarters will be possible but a few half dollar ball size
hail are not completely out of the question.

On Friday an area of high pressure will begin to build into
western Kansas as the surface cold front drops south across the
Texas Panhandle and western Oklahoma. There will be some clouds
along with a chance for thunderstorms during the day as a mid
level baroclinic zone ahead of an upper level trough crosses the
Western High Plains. Given the expected cloud cover on Friday am
favoring going a little cooler than the latest guidance for highs
across much of western Kansas. The previous forecast still looks
on track with highs mainly in the 75 to 80 degree range. Although
we will have a chance for convection during the day on Friday the
chance for severe weather is not expected.


.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 151 PM CDT Thu Jun 22 2017

An upper level ridge axis will amplify across the Pacific
northwest early this weekend, and then cross the western United
States late week into early next week. East of this upper ridge
axis a northwesterly flow will be present across the Rockies and
the Plains as several upper level waves embedded in this flow
crosses the Rockies and move out into the Central Plains. As each
of this upper waves cross the Central Plains over the weekend and
early next week there will be a chance for showers and
thunderstorms across western Kansas.

At the surface a cool dome of high pressure will cross the
central Plains this weekend and based on the 900mb to 850mb
temperatures it will be unseasonably cool. The highs this weekend
will be mainly in the 70s. If mostly cloudy conditions do develop
ahead of any one of the expected upper level waves during the
afternoon hours this weekend then highs may even end up being a
few degrees cooler than this. Cloud cover during the overnight
period will also be important. Given the expected winds Saturday
night and Sunday night...if we can get a period of clear skies
towards daybreak then lows may be around 50 degrees for portions
of western Kansas which would be close to the record lows for this
time of year.

A warming trend will return early next week as down slope flow
improves and a trough of low pressure develops along the lee of
the Rockies. Highs are expect to quickly warm through the 80s with
mid to even a few upper 90s becoming possible across portions of
western Kansas by Wednesday.



&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1218 PM CDT Thu Jun 22 2017

Southerly winds at around 15 knots can be expected today across
western Kansas ahead of a surface cold front which will be
approaching Hays and Garden City by early evening. As this cold
front continues to move south overnight these southerly winds will
shift to the north. In addition to the shifting winds with this
cold front there will also be a chance for some scattered
thunderstorms late today and early tonight. As for timing of
convection near the terminals today will follow a combination of
the HRRR, ARW, and NMM. High cloud bases are expected with these
storms based on the 12z models soundings so VFR conditions are
likely. The exception will be brief periods of reduced visibility
due to the heavy rainfall from some of these storms. Also strong
gusty winds will be possible from these thunderstorms late today
and early tonight.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  97  63  78  57 /  20  30  30   0
GCK 102  60  76  55 /  30  40  30  10
EHA 101  60  74  56 /  20  50  20  10
LBL 101  64  76  58 /  10  40  20  10
HYS  98  63  76  55 /  30  40  40   0
P28  96  69  82  58 /   0  20  30  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Burgert
LONG TERM...Burgert
AVIATION...Burgert



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