Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 171700
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1200 PM CDT Thu Aug 17 2017

...updated aviation...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 218 AM CDT Thu Aug 17 2017

An upper level low will exit the Northern Plains and move into the
Great Lakes region. Meanwhile, west to northwest upper level flow
will continue above western Kansas. A weak shortwave will move
down through this flow and into the Central and Northern High
Plains by this evening. Towards the surface, high pressure will
shift east of the area with a trough of low pressure developing
across eastern Colorado. This will lead to winds shifting from a
northerly direction this morning to a southerly direction by this
afternoon. These southerly winds will continue through tonight.
Skies above western Kansas will be mostly clear through early this
afternoon with a few mid level clouds this afternoon into this
evening. A chance of thunderstorms will be possible across far
western Kansas this evening as the aforementioned upper level
disturbance moves into the area. Any storms that do develop will
slide eastward as the night progresses. As with most disturbances
lately, it is hard to tell where exactly these storms will
develop. As for temperatures, highs today look to reach into the
upper 80s with lows tonight ranging from around 60 degrees across
west central Kansas to upper 60s across south central Kansas.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 218 AM CDT Thu Aug 17 2017

West to northwest flow continues through early next week with a
gradual rise in mid level high fields. This will lead to afternoon
temperatures to be slightly higher as a result with highs in the
mid 90s. A few disturbances will slide through this flow creating
chances of thunderstorms during the late day early evening
periods. However, most locations will remain dry. Upper level
ridging builds above the Rockies by the mid part of next week with
an upper level trough over the Western United States. This
pattern would open up a pathway for Mexican monsoonal moisture to
find its way into the Central Plains. A few upper level
disturbances could move into western Kansas during this time frame
leading to chances of thunderstorms. As for temperatures, highs
will generally be in the low to mid 90s with lows in the 60s to
lower 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1200 PM CDT Thu Aug 17 2017

VFR expected through TAF pd. Have higher confidence of TSRA impacting
far SW Kansas later tonight. Will include VCTS/CB groups for KGCK/KLBL
as a result. A second area of convection may form to the north and
impact KHYS. Confidence on this area is lower but will include VCTS/CB.
Winds will be fairly weak NW bcmg S/SW 5-15 kt.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  90  65  93  65 /  10  40  20  10
GCK  88  62  92  63 /  30  40  10   0
EHA  88  62  91  63 /  30  40  10  10
LBL  91  65  93  65 /  20  40  10  10
HYS  90  64  92  63 /  10  40  10   0
P28  91  67  93  68 /  10  40  30  20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hovorka_42
LONG TERM...Hovorka_42
AVIATION...Sugden



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