Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS
FXUS63 KDDC 082331
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
531 PM CST Sat Mar 8 2014
...Updated aviation discussion...
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 144 PM CST SAT MAR 8 2014
Tonight skies will become clear and an area of high pressure at
the surface will cross western Kansas. At this time the lighter
winds between 09z and 12z Sunday appears to be located across
south central Kansas so will undercut guidance and place cooler
temperatures here early Sunday morning. Have also undercut
guidance where snow reports and radar estimates indicated over 3
inches of snow fell earlier today. Elsewhere based on the
developing southwest wind after midnight will continue to favor
the previous forecast which was also close to the latest MAV/MET.
On Sunday a trough of low pressure at the surface will continue
deepen along the lee of the Rockies. 24 hours 850mb temperature
change indicated a 8 to 10c warmup from 00z Sunday to 00z Monday.
Based on this warming trend expected and that the 850mb
temperatures will range from 10c to near 15c at 00z Monday will
stay close to the previous forecast with highs warming back into
the 60s. Did however lower max temperatures several degrees where
the band of heavier snowfall fell earlier this morning.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 354 PM CST SAT MAR 8 2014
The main forecast problem today is the weather associated with
a strong shortwave trough that will traverse the plains Tuesday.
As this system approaches Tuesday, a surge of warm air will move out
into the plains along and ahead of a developing surface cyclone.
Monday will be a mild day, with highs in the 70s. Temperatures
Tuesday will warm briefly into the 50s and 60s ahead of the front
before falling rapidly by mid to late afternoon. Some precipitation
is expected with this system; but given its progressiveness and
high latitude, southwest Kansas will probably be on the southern
edge of the precipitation that will start out as rain Tuesday
evening and then transition to snow Tuesday night. But given the
intensity of the surface cyclone and pressure rises behind the
front, strong winds easily in excess of wind advisory criteria are
Surface high pressure will build into the southern high plains
Wednesday in the wake of the aforementioned system, with highs
reaching into the lower 50s in the absence of arctic air. A warming
trend can be expected Thursday with highs reaching back into the
lower to mid 60s Thursday and Friday. A weak shortwave trough is
progged to pass across southern Kansas Thursday night; but given
the lack of rich moisture in the presence of weak forcing,
measurable precipitation is not expected. Yet another upper level
system may affect western Kansas by Saturday; but its impact on
western Kansas weather is not known at this point.
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
ISSUED AT 530 PM CST SAT MAR 8 2014
A few late afternoon cumulus/stratocumulus clouds west of Garden
City will dissipate with sunset, leaving VFR conditions to prevail
through the remainder of this forecast period. Light and variable
winds will become southwesterly at 10 to 15 knots by Sunday
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 25 64 37 74 / 0 0 0 0
GCK 22 62 35 74 / 0 0 0 0
EHA 26 65 39 73 / 0 0 0 0
LBL 25 65 35 74 / 0 0 0 0
HYS 24 66 38 74 / 0 0 0 0
P28 23 61 35 74 / 0 0 0 0