Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 220807

307 AM CDT Tue Jul 22 2014

...Updated long term section...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)

Today temperatures will climb to around 100 degrees based the
mean mixing depth forecast by the NAM and GFS along with the
temperatures at 00z Wednesday in the 850mb to 700mb level. All
models, and even guidance, continues to indicated lower dew points
today compared to yesterday, however based on verification of dew
points from yesterday afternoon it appears that the models are too
low by 3-6 degrees. Taking this discrepancies into account and
given the expected highs will go ahead an issue a heat advisory
for portions of north central Kansas. will need to monitor the
Medicine lodge area given several hours of Heat index readings at
104 which is just below advisory criteria.

A weak cold front/surface boundary will stall out in northern
Kansas by early evening and a surface trough of low pressure will
extend south/southwest of this boundary into the panhandle of
Oklahoma. Both areas will be the main focusing mechanism for
evening convection as CAPE values by 00z climb to greater than
2000 j/kg. Better forcing currently appears to be along and north
of the cold front. Also appear the cap will be weaker in this
location as well. Will therefore focus main chances for evening
and overnight convection along and north of this weak cold front
while keeping convection more widely scattered further south.
0-6km shear is forecast to be around 30knots across northern
Kansas so strong to marginally severe thunderstorms can not be
ruled out. Strong gusty winds currently appears to be the main
hazard should any storm develop along the surface lee trough
extending south of this cold front early this evening based on
model soundings.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)

A dry pattern is expected Wednesday through Friday as an upper level
ridge builds across the Southern and Central Rockies. Weak
shortwaves will move around the periphery of this ridge, but they
look to move well north of the area and not affect southwest Kansas.
In addition, warm mid level temperatures should also cap most
convection from initialing across the higher terrain in eastern
Colorado. Skies should be partly cloudy through this period. Towards
the surface, a trough of low pressure will be located across the
KS/CO border Wednesday through Friday morning allowing southerly
winds to be felt across western Kansas. As for temperatures, highs
Wednesday look to reach into the mid to upper 90s with around 100
degrees expected Thursday and Friday. Lows through sunrise Saturday
are expected to be in the lower 70s.

A slight cool down is expected this weekend as winds shift to more
of an easterly direction and storm chances increase. The upper level
ridge slides westward during this time frame as an upper level low
moves down through Central Canada and the Northern Plains Saturday
then into the Great Lakes region Sunday. This low then stalls across
eastern Canada and the Northeast United States for the first part of
next week. This feature will help push a cold front through the area
Saturday and be the focal point of where convection could initiate.
Upslope flow is then expected Sunday into Monday which will help
with increased low level moisture and continued chances of
thunderstorms. Highs this weekend into Monday look to be in the 90s
with close to 100 degrees across the KS/OK border on Saturday. Lows
will be in the low 70s Sunday morning decreasing to the mid to upper
60s by Tuesday morning.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)

Ongoing light precipitation will gradually taper off from
northwest to southeast early this morning with 05z surface
observations, 00z NAM BUFR soundings, and latest HRRR indicating
ceilings will be above the 6000ft AGL level with this
precipitation. Winds will be variable at 10knots or less around
the ongoing precipitation but after 09z become southwest. Wind
speeds will increase to near 15knots by late morning and persist
through the remainder of the day. VFR conditions are also expected
through the day on Tuesday. A weak cold front will approach the
Hays area by early evening allowing for the southerly winds to
shift to the east/northeast between 00z Tuesday and 03z Tuesday.


DDC 100  72  95  70 /  10  10  10  10
GCK 100  72  96  70 /  10  10  10  10
EHA  98  70  97  70 /  20  20  10  10
LBL 100  70  97  70 /   0  10  10  10
HYS 102  72  93  70 /  10  20  10  10
P28 101  74  97  72 /  10  10  10  10


HEAT ADVISORY from Noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening FOR



SHORT TERM...Burgert
LONG TERM...Hovorka_42
AVIATION...Burgert is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.