Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS
FXUS63 KDDC 042329
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
529 PM CST Wed Dec 4 2013
...Updated aviation section...
ISSUED AT 1102 AM CST WED DEC 4 2013
At 12z Wednesday a 300mb jet extended from southern California
into far western Nebraska. A -35c to -37c 500mb low was located
over southeastern Idaho with an upper level trough extending
southwest of this upper low into southern California. Ahead of
this upper level trough 80 to 90meter 12hour height rises were
observed near the four corners region which was where the left
exit region of a 300mb +100kt jet was positioned. A 700mb
baroclinic zone stretched from the four corners region across
western Kansas and into southeastern Nebraska with an area of
higher dewpoints observed along this baroclinic zone. The 850mb
temperatures at 12z Wednesday across the central plains varied
from -3c at Amarillo to -9c at Dodge city to -16c at North Platte.
This a 18c to 25c drop when comparing the 850mb temperatures from 12z
Wednesday to 12z Tuesday. Dodge City and North Platte soundings
from 12z also indicated a fairly deep layer of moisture which
extended from near the surface to at least the 800mb level.
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 147 PM CST WED DEC 4 2013
19z visible satellite loop indicating some clearing skies across
western Kansas as the low clouds gradually erode. Further west mid
level cloud cover/moisture was on the increase and this appears to
be related to a 700mb baroclinic zone that extended from northeast
Colorado into Nebraska. Tonight 700mb frontogenesis will be
improving along this mid level baroclinic zone as the right
entrance region of a 300mb jet crosses western Kansas. Based on
the NAM and RAP at 18z Wednesday this 700mb baroclinic zone should
be located across northeast Colorado 18z and based on the latest
composite mosaic radar loop these models appear to have a decent
handle on this. As a result will follow the 700mb baroclinic zone
from NAM and RAP overnight and place the better chances for
measurable snow along this boundary given the improving
frontogenesis and the location of the right entrance region of an
upper level jet as it crosses the central plains during the
Initial thoughts for snow amounts tonight...a brief period of
steady light to even moderate snow may accompany the jet steak
which may result in a quick inch of snow across portions of west
central and north central Kansas. Have therefore place snow
accumulations of 1 to around 1.5 inches in this this area between
00z Thursday and 12z Thursday. Further south some light
snow/flurries will still be possible, however given the loss of
the upper level dynamics lower snow amounts are anticipated.
On Thursday the better mid level forcing will be located near the
Oklahoma border through much of the day as a southern branch upper
level disturbance approaches southwest Kansas from New Mexico.
Another brief period of steady light to moderate snow will be be
possible during the day across far southwest Kansas and near the
Oklahoma border. Once again 1 to 2 inches of snowfall will be
possible with this steadier snow and lower snow amounts further
north. At this time snow totals over the next 24 to 36 hours are
expected to be mainly between 1 to 2 inches so inserted these snow
totals into the hazardous weather outlook but will not issue a
winter weather advisory at this time.
Wind chill values towards daybreak will fall back mainly into the
5 to 10 degrees below zero range with wind chill readings
approaching -15c in a few locations of west central Kansas. On
Thursday as afternoon temperatures struggle to reach the 15 to
near 20 degree range the wind chill values are expected to be
mainly in the single digits.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 222 PM CST WED DEC 4 2013
Precipitation will be quickly diminishing after 00Z Friday as the 700
mb frontogenesis and 285 Kelvin isentropic lift slides off to the
southeast. Minimums will continue to be cold and in the single
digits. will have to watch out for the possible need for a wind
chill advisory as apparent temperatures approach -15F,
particularly during the morning on Friday. Otherwise, a
precipitation free forecast is expected Friday as isentropic
downglide develops in the wake of the passing synoptic trof.
Maximums Friday will be in the teens and have gone with the colder
bias correct guidance as 850 mb temperatures remain 2 to 3 standard
deviations below normal.
Saturday and beyond:
250 mb flow will eventually transition from westerly Saturday to
southwesterly Sunday as the next 400 mb pv anomaly moves across the
central Rockies and eventually ejects out across the prairies.
This signature is quite impressive per ECMWF fields and displays
the classic treble clef signature. At the low levels, 850-600 mb
frontogenesis and 280-290 Kelvin isentropic lift develops across
west central Kansas Sunday. Have ramped up precipitation
probabilities in this region during the day. The GEM and ECMWF
indicate the potential for a low end snow advisory for Sunday.
This is something to continue to watch as we get closer to the
event. Otherwise, the rest of the forecast will feature fairly
tranquil weather and cold temperatures.
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
ISSUED AT 526 PM CST WED DEC 4 2013
VFR conditions will prevail tonight with northerly winds at 15 to
20 knots gusting to around 25 knots at times. There is a slight
chance of light snow towards sunrise and have placed a TEMPO group
to account for this. Northerly winds then decrease to around 10
knots tomorrow morning.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 9 16 6 16 / 30 60 60 0
GCK 9 16 4 14 / 50 40 40 0
EHA 7 14 5 15 / 50 50 50 0
LBL 11 17 7 16 / 40 80 80 0
HYS 8 18 1 15 / 60 20 20 0
P28 14 22 11 19 / 20 50 50 10