Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 040517
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1217 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

...Updated Short Term...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 1217 AM CDT Wed May 4 2016

Beautiful spring weather across SW KS on Wednesday. Strong high
pressure ridge axis is firmly established along the spine of the
Rocky Mountains by 7 pm, with dry air and subsidence delivering a
clear sky across SW KS. Tropospheric flow will remain northerly on
the front side of the ridge axis, with northerly surface winds
of 15-25 mph this afternoon. Despite the north winds, 850 mb
temperatures climb another 5C, allowing the warming trend to
continue into the mid and upper 70s.

Clear and quiet tonight with lows in the 40s.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 242 PM CDT Tue May 3 2016

The main excitement in the Long Term will be over Mother`s Day
weekend, when a significant Southwest Low will develop and drift
northeastward across the Four Corners region into the Rockies. There
is a rather high degree of confidence in this synoptic scale regime
over the upcoming weekend, but when it comes to the more important
subsynoptic scale features (timing, strength, evolution) that will
impact our weather, there is still a rather low degree of
confidence. The first day of potential (severe?) convection will be
Saturday when an initial jet streak/shortwave trough lifts out of
New Mexico into the Central High Plains. This would undoubtedly lead
to intense lower tropospheric development somewhere across eastern
Colorado southward into the western Texas Panhandle or far
northeastern New Mexico. While the leeside trough convergence would
be quite strong in this scenario, the dryline will not be all that
impressive given the fairly paltry low level moisture influx, at
least initially. Lee trough/dryline thunderstorms would likely
develop as capping is eroded due to mid tropospheric cooling late in
the day Saturday/Saturday evening, however, if this system slows
down just a little bit more in timing, then the dryline will most
likely remain convection-free. As a lead shortwave trough lifts
north-northeastward into eastern Colorado (at least as shown by the
ECMWF and GFS), the best lift and low level
convergence/frontogenesis will be across northeastern Colorado. On
paper, the best severe weather threat with this lead perturbation
would be northwest of our forecast area in that zone of
frontogenesis.

Should the system slow down just a bit more, keeping Saturday
convection-free, that would open up Sunday to a greater risk of
severe weather across a larger portion of western and southern
Kansas. By then, the sustained southerly flow from the Gulf of
Mexico should finally yield surface dewpoints in the lower 60s. All
ingredients would be in place for at least scattered severe
thunderstorms, if not numerous severe thunderstorms from mid
afternoon through the evening Sunday. Depending on the timing of the
ejection of the upper low, severe weather risk may stick around for
another diurnal cycle (Monday), most likely affecting the far
eastern zones (central/south central Kansas).

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1200 AM CDT Wed May 4 2016

VFR/SKC through Wednesday. NW winds developing overnight near
10 kts. After 15z Wed, north winds at all airports averaging
12-22 kts. Surface winds expected to become light and variable
around 00z Thursday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  43  76  47  82 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  40  77  47  83 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  41  76  48  85 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  41  77  47  85 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  44  74  46  81 /   0   0   0   0
P28  46  78  49  81 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Turner
LONG TERM...Umscheid
AVIATION...Turner


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