Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS
FXUS63 KDDC 112313
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
613 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2014
...Updated aviation discussion...
.SHORT TERM...(This afternoon through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 1111 AM CDT FRI JUL 11 2014
Tranquil conditions are expected tonight and through the overnight pd.
Any storms will remain well northwest of the forecast area, so pops
will continue at zero percent. Overnight minimums will still be mild
and mainly in the 70s. Southerly winds will continue as well.
Another hot day is expected with highs in the mid 90s, which is actually
near climo. There could be some late afternoon and evening convection
along a frontal boundary mainly northwest of a line from Elkhart to
Hays. The 4km NAM is much drier than compared to the operational 12km
NAM, so the trend of reducing pops off to the northwest might be needed
in later forecasts. The WRF cores aren`t that impressive either and
keep activity pretty isolated. Dewpoints are expected to mix out ahead
of the frontal boundary, which in turn could reduce MUCAPE. The EC also
indicates this with fairly low SBCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg. In addition,
bulk shear and upper level shear for storm top ventilation is on the
weak side, so severe weather seems unlikely. Cannot rule out some small
hail and perhaps marginal outflow speeds. Agree with the previous meteorologist
that the NAM is too warm with highs given all the evapotranspiration/moisture fluxes
that is occurring.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
ISSUED AT 352 PM CDT FRI JUL 11 2014
A cool/wet period will be the story for this Long Term period.
Sunday and Monday will be the warmest days of the period, but even
those days will be slightly below average for highs per latest
forecast. The first weak front will push through late Saturday
Night, and behind this boundary will be a few non-descript
thunderstorms. Highest POPs will be confined to areas
along/northwest of a Ulysses to Garden City to La Crosse line.
Thunderstorms will be difficult to maintain much longer after sunset
as the large scale forcing for ascent will be missing (strongest jet
stream energy found across the Northern Plains into the Midwest).
The front will continue to push into southwest Kansas Sunday with
northeast winds at the surface prevailing. Highs were lowered just a
little bit with clouds lingering through the day along with some
widely scattered showers/thunderstorms along the 700mb deformation
axis (although weak). We may rebound a little bit back to around 90
Monday as the flow tries to come back around out of the
south/southwest (very light, though) before the next, main big
frontal passage. That front will come in sometime late Monday
afternoon/evening. This is when POPs will be increased area-wide
with 30-40 Chance POPs in the forecast. As the main frontal push
moves south, so will the first round of precipitation. Going into
Tuesday, very cool 850mb temperatures will be found across all of
Kansas with ECMWF showing 18Z Tuesday 850mb temperatures from +7 to
+10C! Upper single digit 850mb temperatures for this time of year is
around mid-single digits percentile (greater than 2 Standard
Deviations) of climatological 850mb Temperatures at KDDC. Both
Tuesday and Wednesday look exceedingly cool for mid-July. In fact,
the AllBlend Guidance for Dodge City of 78F (Tuesday) and 74F
(Wednesday) may be on the *warm* side, per the latest ECMWF run! It
is not out of the realm of possibility that temperatures at Dodge
City may not escape the 60s one (or both?!) of those days. This
would be exceedingly rare, as we could only find 4 dates in the
record book going back to 1950 that had highs below 70 during the
July 10-20 period (out of 704 days in that search criteria). After
Wednesday, we would begin the slow climb back toward the 80s by the
end of next week as the abnormally cool airmass begins to modify.
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
ISSUED AT 611 PM CDT FRI JUL 11 2014
VFR conditions can be expected given limited moisture and large
scale subsidence under an upper high as it slowly moves from
western Kansas into northern Oklahoma over the next 24 hours.
Gusty south winds at around 20 knots will decrease to 10 to
15knots after sunset as the boundary layer winds decouple.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 70 95 70 88 / 0 10 10 30
GCK 69 95 70 88 / 0 20 20 30
EHA 68 95 72 91 / 0 20 20 30
LBL 69 97 73 93 / 0 10 10 20
HYS 71 95 69 88 / 0 30 30 20
P28 72 96 73 96 / 0 10 10 20