Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 300540
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1240 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

...Updated Short Term...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 1240 AM CDT Sat Apr 30 2016

Closed 552 dm cyclone passing through NW Kansas this morning,
with cool advection and persistent stratus across SW Kansas. The
meaningful rainfall has ended. Kept slight chances of a rain
shower mentioned across the northern zones today, to account for
any wraparound moisture and the trailing vorticity at the base of
the low, but it will not be much. Unseasonably chilly today,
compliments of cool NW flow behind cyclone ejecting to near Grand
Island by 7 pm. Afternoon high temperatures Saturday will range
from only the upper 40s in NW Trego county to the upper 60s at
Kiowa in Barber County. Most locations averaging 10-15 degrees
below average for the final day of April, with NW winds of 15-25
mph this afternoon. Low stratus ceilings this morning will
gradually lift and erode to broken stratocumulus this afternoon
for most locales, although lower ceilings will be more persistent
with northern extent (near Hays) closer to the ejecting low and
its associated vorticity lobes. A mostly cloudy sky will persist
tonight, with lows Sunday morning ranging from the lower 30s in
northern Hamilton county to the lower 40s in Barber county.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 231 PM CDT Fri Apr 29 2016

On Sunday the focus will shift to the next upper level low which
will be located near the four corners region on Sunday afternoon.
As this next system approaches Sunday night through early next
week the chance for precipitation will once again be on the
increase across southwestern Kansas. Given the latest trend and
track of this next feature from the GFS and ECMWF the better
opportunity for precipitation in western Kansas will be late
Sunday night into early Monday. Temperatures will stay on the cool
side from Sunday and Monday given the cloud cover and 900mb
temperature trends from the GFS.

Warmer temperatures are then expected to return mid to late week
as the next system exits the central plains and an upper level
ridge axis begins to build across the central Rockies.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1200 AM CDT Sat Apr 30 2016

Gradually improving flying conditions expected through Saturday.
IFR/MVFR stratus cigs will persist through about sunrise, as
closed cyclonic ciculation moves to near HYS. Cigs will gradually
improve to VFR at DDC/GCK this afternoon with broken
stratocumulus persisting. MVFR cigs will persist longer near HYS
nearest the low`s circulation. A few wraparound -SHRA are possible
near HYS this afternoon, warranting a VCSH mention, otherwise
airports will be dry. After 15z Sat, NW surface winds gusty at
15-25 kts.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  39  58  39  55 /  80  10  10  20
GCK  37  55  37  52 /  80  20  10  30
EHA  34  57  38  52 /  20  10  20  40
LBL  36  60  39  55 /  50  10  10  30
HYS  40  52  40  53 / 100  30  20  20
P28  44  65  43  61 /  70   0  10  10

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Turner
LONG TERM...Burgert
AVIATION...Turner



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