Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 221700
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1200 PM CDT MON AUG 22 2016

...Updated Aviation...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 254 AM CDT Mon Aug 22 2016

Upper level troughing over the desert southwest will approach the
southern and central high plains by this evening. The previous
front has stalled out along a line from Carlsbad, NM to just
north of Fort Worth; and the rich low level moisture with
dewpoints well above 60F is located south of this front and well
south of Kansas. Residual low level moisture with dewpoints in the
mid to upper 50s was located over the Panhandles. The upper level
system will gradually move across western Kansas Tuesday. Another
upper level trough will pass across the central plains Wednesday
into early Thursday along with a cold front associated with a
northern stream trough. In the wake of this system, surface high
pressure will build into western Kansas late Wednesday into
Thursday. Upper level troughing will also approach the central
plains by the weekend, along with renewed surface troughing in the
lee of the Rockies.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 847 AM CDT Mon Aug 22 2016

Increased wind and wind gust grids through this afternoon. South
winds will average 20-30 mph with higher gusts likely, near 35 mph
especially western zones. 12z NAM places a strong 997 mb lee side
surface low in SW Nebraska this afternoon and evening, with a
healthy pressure gradient across SW KS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 254 AM CDT Mon Aug 22 2016

Given that the aforementioned rich moist sector will stay south
of Kansas today despite a return to southerly winds, surface based
CAPE values will be marginal in far western Kansas as the
shortwave trough approaches. Around mid-day the surface based CAPE
values could be as high as 1000 j/kg across eastern Colorado to
near the Colorado border; but with vertical dilution of the
moisture in the afternoon with mixing, values could fall below
1000 j/kg by late afternoon. Given the weak instability, severe
storms are not expected; but a few non-severe storms are
possible, with best chances along the Colorado state line. Highs
should be in the upper 80s to near 90 degrees. Brisk south winds
and increasing low level moisture will keep temperatures from
falling below the mid to upper 60s tonight.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 254 AM CDT Mon Aug 22 2016

Small thunderstorm chances will shift eastward by Tuesday as the
shortwave trough mentioned in the short term discussion continues
to move eastward. This system will be coming through fairly early
in the day so that the best potential for storms will be with
daytime heating in central and south central Kansas before 00z.
Low level moisture will have surged northward to Pratt and Hays by
with early Tuesday afternoon with dewpoints well into the 60s. Bulk
shear values look marginal for rotating storms; and since winds
are not expected to be backed at lower levels, the tornado threat
is very low. However, given surface based CAPE values as high as
2500 j/kg and increasing high level winds, large hail and
damaging winds are possible. High temperatures will increase to
the lower to middle 90s by Tuesday given the surface lee troughing
and south winds. Thunderstorms are also possible from Wednesday
into early Thursday as the next upper level trough approaches from
the west and the aforementioned cold front pushes southward out
of the northern plains. These storms could be severe as well.
High temperatures along interstate 70 will be cooler by Wednesday
in the 80s, with some lower 90s possible in south central Kansas
depending on the speed of the front. Cooler highs in the 70s to
lower 80s can be expected by Thursday in the wake of the cold
front. Thunderstorms can`t be ruled out by Friday and Saturday as
additional shortwave energy moves across the plains and low level
warm advection resumes. Thunderstorm chances will linger into the
weekend

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1200 PM CDT Mon Aug 22 2016

Strong south winds will impact aviation this afternoon into the
early evening hours, in response to 995 mb surface low in NW
Nebraska. South winds of 20-30 kts will be routine through sunset,
with some gusts near 35 kts, especially at/near GCK. Around
00z Tue, NAM/HRRR models suggest isolated -TSRA may develop across
the western zones, perhaps into the central zones by 06z.
Convective coverage will be isolated, with little confidence of
impacts at the terminals, so opted to keep out of the 18z TAFs for
now. VCTS possible. GFS suggests isolated -TSRA near HYS during
the 09-12z Tue time frame. After 06z Tue, widespread LLWS
expected, in response to strong LLJ with 850 mb winds as high as
50 kts. Surface winds relax near sunrise, followed by strong S/SW
winds resuming quickly by 15z Tue.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  89  67  94  69 /   0  20  20  20
GCK  88  66  95  65 /  10  20  20  20
EHA  86  65  95  64 /  10  20  10  10
LBL  88  66  94  68 /  10  20  20  20
HYS  88  68  92  67 /   0  20  20  30
P28  87  69  91  72 /   0  20  30  30

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Turner
SYNOPSIS...Finch
SHORT TERM...Finch
LONG TERM...Finch
AVIATION...Turner



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