Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 191108
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
608 AM CDT Sun Mar 19 2017

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 254 AM CDT Sun Mar 19 2017

Will be starting out quite mild this morning with increasing dew
points across the southwest counties on light south winds. There is
a small opportunity for patchy fog development as the surface
moisture pools against the quasi-stationary surface boundary
extending through the highway 283-183 corridors. clouds should not
develop in this shallow moisture layer and any fog will be extremely
short lived as warm advection wins out.

Temperatures look to be approaching some records today. Record here
locally is 98 degrees. The models have generally underperformed over
the last couple of days with respect to highs, and this could
well be the case today as well. We have use the bias corrected
model consensus for the warmest to all the solutions, which
produces a swatch of mid 90s across the far south west, Liberal
area northeast through the Ark Valley.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 254 AM CDT Sun Mar 19 2017

Not much has changed with respect to the extended forecast. The GFS
and  ECMWF are still fairly well in agreement with a couple of
opportunities for wetting rains. The first is late Tuesday/Tuesday
night, post cold frontal, with a weak wave moving along or behind
the advancing cold front. The next setup will be far more complex
with convection in the picture, possibly with a severe risk (or
dry slotted altogether), centered around the late Thursday-
Thursday night timeframe.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
Issued at 607 AM CDT Sun Mar 19 2017

VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites through late this
evening. Light southeasterly winds early this morning will become
more south to southwesterly through early this afternoon while
increasing 10 to 20kt as a lee side trough of low pressure across
eastern Colorado begins to edge slowly eastward into extreme
western Kansas.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 254 AM CDT Sun Mar 19 2017

Very warm, or hot for this time of the year, temperatures will develop
this afternoon. A couple of factors will save our area from the
cusp of red flag criteria. 1) the axis of enhanced surface dew
points shifting southwest to east across Kansas early, and 2) the
relatively weak sustained winds and weak gust potential that have
been shown in the last several WRF runs. Still, the fire risk
will be enhanced today given the very low relative humidity
forecast but it looks like it should not meet the warning
criterion.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  95  48  81  43 /   0   0   0  10
GCK  93  45  81  42 /   0   0   0  10
EHA  92  48  84  45 /   0   0   0  10
LBL  96  46  85  44 /   0   0   0  10
HYS  87  47  73  40 /   0   0   0  20
P28  94  53  85  49 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Russell
LONG TERM...Russell
AVIATION...JJohnson
FIRE WEATHER...Russell



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