Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 260752
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
152 AM CST FRI DEC 26 2014

...UPDATED LONG TERM SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CST THU DEC 25 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM IS THE INCOMING STORM FOR EARLY
FRIDAY AND WHAT IMPACTS ARE POSSIBLE FOR WESTERN KANSAS. THE
CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS INDICATES RATHER IMPRESSIVE DENDRITIC
GROWTH ZONE FROM THE BOUNDARY LAYER UP THROUGH THE MID LEVELS WITH
THIS SYSTEM, SUPPORTING SNOW DEVELOPMENT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
EVEN WITH LITTLE FORCING. THE FRONTOGENESIS IS WEAK AND BROAD IN
THE LOWER LEVELS OF THIS TROUGH FRIDAY BUT, BUT STILL SIGNIFICANT
GIVEN THE SATURATED COLD LAYER IN PLACE. WE USED A CONSERVATIVE
APPROACH TO QPF IN COMBINATION WITH THE NAM 12-16:1 SNOW RATIOS
TO DEVELOP A REASONABLE SNOW FORECAST WHICH TURNED OUT IN EXCESS
OF AN INCH AND A HALF FOR ALL AREAS GENERALLY EAST OF A HAYS TO
LIBERAL LINE. THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS WILL BE CLOSER TO THE ASSUMED
LOCATION OF THE STRONGEST FRONTOGENESIS AND COLDEST AIR ALOFT IN
WEST CENTRAL KANSAS (LOCATIONS FROM SYRACUSE TO SCOTT CITY).
BLUSTERY CONDITIONS WILL ACCOMPANY THE SNOW EPISODE, HOWEVER WINDS
WILL NOT BE AS STRONG AS IN MANY CASES, ONLY ON THE ORDER OF 12 TO
16 KNOTS WITH GUSTS INTO THE 20 KNOT RANGE. GENERALLY LOWER WIND
SPEEDS WILL PROMOTE SLIGHTLY HIGHER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS.

THE HOURLY TREND OF THE GFS MOS LAMP PRODUCT WAS CLOSELY FOLLOWED
FOR FRIDAY`S TEMPERATURE FORECAST. MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN UNDER
THE FREEZING MARK IN THE WEST WHILE EARLY HIGHS SHOULD BE
EXPERIENCED IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS COUNTIES.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 151 AM CST FRI DEC 26 2014

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS
DURING THE WEEKEND WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS
THE EASTERN PACIFIC. MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE LOOK TO BE
FAIRLY DRY DURING THIS TIME PERIOD LEADING TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
OVER WESTERN KANSAS. PRECIPITATION CHANCES THEN INCREASE EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS SOUTH ACROSS THE WESTERN
UNITED STATES AND SET UP A DIFLUENT FLOW ALOFT OVER THE THE HIGH
PLAINS. THIS FEATURE WILL ALSO HELP PUSH DOWN ANOTHER ARCTIC
AIRMASS AT THE SURFACE WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
THROUGH MID WEEK. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE COLD ENOUGH FOR ANY
PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS TO BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW. THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH INTENSIFIES AND BECOMES A LOW
ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST MID WEEK THEN EJECTS EASTWARD TOWARDS
THE PLAINS BY THE END OF THE WEEK. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS THIS FEATURE APPROACHES WITH ANOTHER
CHANCE OF SNOW LATE IN THE WEEK AS THIS SYSTEM TREKS ACROSS THE
PLAINS. AS FOR TEMPERATURES, HIGHS THIS WEEKEND LOOK TO REACH INTO
THE 30S WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S. HIGHS MONDAY
LOOK TO RANGE FROM AROUND 20 DEGREES ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS TO
MID 30S ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. THIS IS DUE TO THE COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE TEENS ARE
THEN ANTICIPATED TUESDAY WITH LOWS DIPPING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS
AND POSSIBLY EVEN BELOW ZERO ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS BY SUNRISE
WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES THEN SLOWLY REBOUND TO THE 30S BY FRIDAY
WITH LOWS INCREASING INTO THE TEENS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1118 PM CST THU DEC 25 2014

AS COLD AIR MOVES IN FROM THE NORTH, CIGS WILL LOWER AND WINDS
INCREASE. CIGS MAY GO DOWN QUICKLY TO IFR CONDITIONS BY 07Z TO
08Z, AS NORTH WINDS INCREASE FROM THE NORTH AT 15G25KT. TOWARDS
15Z, WINDS WILL ABATE TO NORTH AT 14 KNOTS, AND CIGS WILL IMPROVE
SLIGHTLY TO OVC011.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  30  18  31  17 /  50  60   0   0
GCK  28  14  30  16 /  70  60   0   0
EHA  30  16  31  17 /  70  30   0   0
LBL  30  19  31  16 /  50  40   0   0
HYS  30  16  29  16 /  70  70   0   0
P28  41  21  33  19 /  30  70  10   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM CST /5 AM MST/ THIS MORNING TO
4 PM CST /3 PM MST/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR KSZ043-044-061>063-074-
075-084.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RUSSELL
LONG TERM...HOVORKA_42
AVIATION...BURKE



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