Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 160839

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
339 AM CDT Sun Oct 16 2016

...Updated short term, long term and fire weather discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 339 AM CDT Sun Oct 16 2016

Fog has started to develop over parts of northern Kansas with visibilities
dropping at Great Bend and Hill City at this time. This is in an area
to the north of a weak frontal boundary that pushed into the area on
Saturday. Short term models such as the HRRR and RAP13 have been indicating
this over the past several runs. HiRes ARW and NMM have also shown this
and actually develop lower visibilities farther south into south central
Kansas. Previous shift issued a dense fog advisory for the area along
and north of a Jetmore- Kinsley- Stafford line which should be sufficient
but will have to watch areas farther south to see if any widespread
development occurs early this morning. Any fog/stratus that develops
should burn off by mid/late morning.

Models indicate the axis of a flat upper level shortwave ridge moving
from the central High Plains into the mid Mississippi Valley by this
evening with increasing west southwesterly flow aloft over the central
High Plains. A broad fetch of low level downslope flow will set up
today across the region. This will result in another very warm day
with highs mainly in the 90s across southwest Kansas. Parts of central
Kansas around Hays will be the slowest to warm as the frontal boundary
will take a while to clear that area and this will make temperature
forecasting a little more tricky. Will keep high temperatures in the
mid/upper 80s in that area but they could warm up well into the 90s
if downslope winds push through this afternoon.

Mild temperatures in the 50s will continue overnight as the warm
airmass remains in place.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 339 AM CDT Sun Oct 16 2016

Monday will continue very warm as downslope flow continues. Highs
will once again rise into the 90s. By Monday evening, a fast moving
shortwave trough passing through the northern Plains will push a
cold front south across western Kansas. This will usher in cooler
temperatures with daytime highs back into the upper 60s and 70s.

By Wednesday, another strong shortwave trough will cross the
northern and central High Plains. The GFS model seems to have
backed off on the idea of a strong closed upper low developing
somewhere east of the High Plains later in the week with both it
and the ECMWF showing a progressive system. Given that this system
will be slightly positively tilted as it moves out, the best
chances for any significant precipitation will likely be east of
south central and southwest Kansas. Will keep some very small pops
up along I-70 where a few showers could develop along and north of
the vorticity max and upper jet.

Warmer temperatures will return to the region late in the week as
upper level ridging builds back over the central Plains.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1155 PM CDT Sat Oct 15 2016

Fog and mist is expected to develop toward Sunday morning with the
greatest impacts (lowest visibilities) at Hays where LIFR cigs and
vsbys are expected. Farther southwest, Dodge City and Garden City
could possibly see MVFR visibilities for a few hours around sunrise.
Look for VFR conditions to return to the terminals by 15z.


Issued at 339 AM CDT Sun Oct 16 2016

Will keep the Red Flag Warning intact this afternoon for areas
along and west of Highway 83. Southwesterly downslope flow will
bring drier and warmer air into southwest Kansas today. Winds may
not be overly strong but we should see frequent gusts to 25 mph.

While there is some uncertainty as to the magnitude of the drier
air and how far east it spreads, the models continue to show
breezy and dry conditions continuing on Monday, spreading farther
east than today. Will keep the Fire Weather Watch in place for
Monday afternoon.


DDC  91  56  92  50 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  94  52  93  47 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  94  55  95  47 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  96  54  95  49 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  85  53  90  50 /  10   0   0   0
P28  89  61  93  56 /   0   0   0   0


Fire Weather Watch from Monday afternoon through Monday evening
for KSZ043>045-061>064-074>078-080-084>089.

Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for KSZ030-031-

Red Flag Warning from noon CDT /11 AM MDT/ today to 7 PM CDT /6
PM MDT/ this evening for KSZ043-061>063-074>076-084>086.



LONG TERM...Gerard
FIRE WEATHER...Gerard is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.