Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS
FXUS63 KDDC 042015
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
215 PM CST Tue Mar 4 2014
...Updated for the long term forecast...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 209 AM CST TUE MAR 4 2014
An upper level trough, located near the coast of northern
California at 00z Wednesday, will quickly move east across the
western United States and be late day is forecast to be located
near the central Rockies. As this upper level system approaches, a
trough of low pressure will deepen across eastern Colorado as
westerly downslope flow improves. Both the NAM and GFS indicate an
area of +10c 850mb air wills spread into western Kansas by the
early afternoon as a cold front moves south into Nebraska. 00z
Thursday mixdown temperatures over western Kansas suggests the
potential for highs this afternoon ranging from the 60 to 65
degrees, however mid to high level moisture will begin to increase
late day as the upper level disturbance begins to approach the
area from the west. Taking this into account the previous forecast
still looks on track with highs climbing into the upper 50s to the
lower 60s in areas free of snow cover. In areas where snow cover
still exists the highs today are expected to average from 15 to
near 20 degrees cooler.
Tonight a cold front will move out of Nebraska and into western
Kansas as an upper level disturbance crosses the central Rockies.
Ahead of this cold front an area of low level moisture below the
900mb level is forecast to improve across portions of western
Kansas. This return of moisture will occur under a warm layer in
the in the 900 to 800mb level so only status and/or fog is
anticipated early Tuesday night. The depth of this low level
moisture will improve behind the cold front and the layer of
warmer air will begin to decrease as well. As the low levels
saturates...both the NAM and GFS indicated an increase in mid
level moisture and lift ahead of this upper level disturbance,
especially near a 700mb baroclinic zone. This is also an area
where 850-700mb frontogenesis will be improving...especially after
06z Wednesday. Current track and timing from these two models
place this baroclinic zone/area frontogenesis across west central
and north central Kansas by 12z Wednesday. Based on this improving
lift and increasing low level moisture will favor west central and
north central Kansas as the area more favorable for light
precipitation developing after 06z. At this time am not completely
able to rule out the potential for light freezing drizzle further
south of this area, however based on low confidence and depth of
the moist layer begin 2000ft or less have decided to not mention
this possibility at this time.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 213 PM CST TUE MAR 4 2014
The extended forecast period, starting with Wednesday night, will
see a short wave exiting to the east of our forecast area. I will
leave just a slender section of Pratt and Barber Counties for light
snow Wednesday night. Then on Thursday, as fresh snow cover will be
laid down, but plentiful sunshine will shine down and warm up
southwest Kansas to near 50F degrees in the Stafford to Barber
Counties areas, but zoom temperatures up into the mid 60s in our
west with little snow cover to work with. South winds will help
keep temperatures somewhat elevated Thursday night in the middle 30s
to lower 40s. I considered lowering mins a bit over the snow areas
of my eastern CWA, but clouds and south winds can keep the surface
temperatures higher vs lower. Friday will be partly sunny with
winds becoming north after a cold front passes south, with north
afternoon winds at 15 to 20 mph and gusty. An upper level trough
will approach from the west late Friday, and will lead to a chance
of rain or snow early Friday night, then a chance of snow for all
the area after midnight Friday night. I do not see too much
snowfall with this system, but up to an inch in spots. Lows Friday
night should end up in the mid 20s to around 30F degrees.
On Saturday, the upper flow will return from the west to northwest,
and begin a slow warm up. Saturday will be in the upper 30s to
lower 40s, then Sunday should warm nicely in to the lower to upper
50s, followed by Monday with highs in the upper 50s to middle 60s.
A weak cold front appears to be crossing north to south on Tuesday
per the ECMWF model, bringing highs in the middle 50s to near 60F.
Low temperatures from Saturday morning through Tuesday morning will
be warming from the middle 20s Sat and Sun, to the middle 30s to
around 40F degrees by Tuesday morning.
A note about the 8 to 14 outlook, upon further looking into the long
range models, this period should be characteristic with below normal
temperatures and maybe near normal precipitation. Maximum
temperatures should be near normal, but minimum temperatures below
normal. Another upper wave may cross the plains late Wednesday into
Friday, giving a slight chance for some rain or snow.
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1100 AM CST TUE MAR 4 2014
VFR conditions will prevail for the rest of today. Flight categories
will deteriorate through the overnight and particularly tomorrow morning.
LIFR cigs will be possible in association with low stratus and fog.
SN will be possible towards the end of the TAF pd, but have omitted
for now due to uncertainty/right at end of TAF pd.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 25 39 21 57 / 10 40 0 0
GCK 26 44 22 63 / 20 50 0 0
EHA 29 52 26 66 / 10 20 0 0
LBL 25 44 23 63 / 10 40 0 0
HYS 25 39 19 56 / 30 50 0 0
P28 22 35 18 52 / 10 50 10 0