Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 132039
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
239 PM CST Wed Dec 13 2017

...UPDATE TO LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 1201 PM CST Wed Dec 13 2017

Although drier conditions are expected to persist during the period,
there is an outside shot for extremely light precip across extreme
western Kansas late tonight as an upper level shortwave in the
Northern Rockies drops south-southeast into the Central Rockies and
the Western High Plains. Much drier air will persist in the
lower/mid levels through late this evening, but short range model
soundings show vertical profiles beginning to moisten and nearing
saturation late tonight as the shortwave drops into Colorado.
Considering extreme weak QPF signals are present, will retain a
slight chance for light snow across west central and extreme
southwest Kansas for early Thursday morning. A secondary upper level
shortwave will drop south across the Dakotas into Nebraska and
Kansas Thursday afternoon resulting in an additional slight chance
for precip across central Kansas late in the period.

Colder air will filter into western Kansas tonight in wake of a cold
frontal passage earlier today. Expect lows well down into the 30s(F)
again tonight with the upper 20s(F) possible in some locations.
Colder air will spread southward across western Kansas through the
day Thursday lowering H85 temperatures down to around 0C. Should see
highs only up into the 40s(F) Thursday afternoon with near 50F still
possible in south central Kansas.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 236 PM CST Wed Dec 13 2017

A drier pattern will set up through the end of the week as a
northwest flow aloft develops across the Western High Plains in wake
of a departing upper level shortwave trough. Medium range models
show ridging aloft breaking down as it moves out of the Intermountain
West into the Central Plains early in the period. A relatively weak
flow aloft and a lack of low/mid level moisture will help keep precip
chances at bay through at least Saturday night. There is a very slight
chance for light precip Sunday as an upper level trough digs into the
Desert Southwest creating an increasingly difluent southwest flow aloft
across the Western High Plains. Meanwhile, a frontal boundary is
projected to push through western Kansas sometime late in the weekend,
providing a focus for increased forcing. Still, limited moisture will
hinder precip chances in general Sunday.

A warm up is likely Friday as weak lee side troughing develops across
eastern Colorado setting up a westerly downslope flow into western
Kansas, pushing H85 temperatures well above 0C. Should see highs up
into the mid to upper 50s(F) Friday afternoon. The warming trend
continues Saturday as the lee side trough strengthens bringing about
a more southwest flow. This will enhance warm air advection into
western Kansas pushing H85 temperatures up around to a little above
10C. Expect highs closer to 60F Saturday afternoon. Colder temperatures
return late in the weekend as a cold front pushes through western Kansas
sometime Saturday night into Sunday morning.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1113 AM CST Wed Dec 13 2017

VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites through early Thursday
morning. North-northwest winds 20 to 30kt will persist through late
this afternoon behind a cold front pushing southward across southwest
and south central Kansas into northern Oklahoma. Localized gusts up
to 35kt are likely across central Kansas where winds will be the
strongest. Winds will subside this evening as the pressure gradient
across western Kansas relaxes.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  29  46  21  55 /  10  10  10   0
GCK  29  45  20  56 /  10  10   0   0
EHA  29  43  22  57 /  20  20   0   0
LBL  31  45  20  56 /  10  10   0   0
HYS  29  44  22  54 /   0  20  10   0
P28  32  49  24  54 /   0  10  10   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJohnson
LONG TERM...JJohnson
AVIATION...JJohnson


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