Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 190750
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
250 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

...UPDATED FOR THE SHORT TERM FORECAST...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 246 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WHICH HAS BEEN OVER THE PLAINS FOR
SEVERAL DAYS WILL CONTINUE MOVING EAST TODAY.  SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL
FLOW WILL HELP BOOST TEMPERATURES UP FROM YESTERDAY`S LEVELS BY
ABOUT 10 DEGREES OR SO. THERE WILL BE SOME MIDLEVEL CLOUDINESS AROUND
THIS MORNING, BUT IT SHOULD DIMINISH BY NOON OR SO, ALLOWING FOR
A NICE WARM UP. THE SOUTHWEST CORNER OF OUR FORECAST AREA SHOULD
SEE THE WARMEST MAX TEMPERATURES, RANGING IN THE UPPER 70S. THE
HAYS AREA IN OUR NORTHEAST WILL BE ONLY A FEW DEGREES COOLER IN
THE MIDDLE 70S. WINDS TODAY WILL START OUT FROM THE SOUTH AROUND
10 MPH, BUT INCREASE QUICKLY INTO FROM THE SOUTHWEST AT 15 MPH
GUSTING TO 25 MPH BUY 14 TO 15Z, AS A SURFACE TROUGH ADVANCES EAST
FROM COLORADO.

AS FOR TONIGHT, THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL GET FLATTENED SOMEWHAT BY
AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE PASSING THROUGH TO OUR NORTH.  THE ECMWF MODEL
SHOWS JUST A SLIVER OF LIGHT RAIN GLANCING OUR SOUTHERN MOST
COUNTIES.  THE SHORTER RANGE MODELS OF THE RAP, NAM, AND NMM AND ARW
MODELS DO NOT SHOW ANY PRECIP, AND THUS I HAVE LEFT IT OUT OF THE
FORECAST.  SKIES WILL BE NEARLY CLEAR, WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS. THUS, I AM EXPECTING MIN TEMPS IN THE MID 40S IN THE SCOTT
CITY AND SYRACUSE AREAS, AROUND 50F DEGREES FROM LIBERAL TO DODGE CITY
TO LARNED, AND THE LOWER 50S IN THE COLDWATER, PRATT AND MEDICINE
LODGE AREAS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ALL SHOW A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS AND NORTHERN MEXICO AT THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. THIS PATTERN BREAKS DOWN SOMEWHAT THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF
THE WEEK. UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO BECOMES LESS
DEFINED AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTS OUT OF THE QUASI-STATIONARY LONG
WAVE TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST AND MOVES ONSHORE IN THE WEST. THE
MODELS MOVE THIS WAVE OUT INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY.
AS THIS WAVE APPROACHES, RETURN FLOW FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL
BRING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BACK NORTHWARD ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL
KANSAS AHEAD OF THE WAVE. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE CONSISTENT IN
DEVELOPING AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE DAKOTAS
SOUTHWARD INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND MOVING IT
ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. THE
MODELS SHOW DECENT PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 1.25
INCH ALONG WITH SOME MODEST INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION WITH THIS
WAVE. THE SCATTERED POPS THAT THE CR_EXTENDED INIT IS PRODUCING LOOK
VERY REASONABLE.

THE MODELS SHOW THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN UNDERGOING AN ANTICYCLONIC
WAVE BREAK AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS RAPIDLY FROM THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND THE WAVE CLOSES OFF INTO
AN UPPER LOW AS IT DROPS INTO THE WESTERN GULF COAST REGION. THE
CANADIAN MODEL ALSO SHOWS A WAVE BREAK PATTERN BUT HAS IT MUCH
FARTHER WEST THAN THE GFS/ECMWF...DROPPING INTO NORTHWEST MEXICO.
ENSEMBLES FROM THE CANADIAN AND GFS ARE NOT IN REAL GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THE WAVE BREAK IDEA SO SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS. AT ANY RATE, WE
SHOULD SEE A FEW DAYS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH DRIER AND SOMEWHAT
WARMER WEATHER RETURNING FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 702 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE KANSAS-COLORADO
BORDER DURING THE PERIOD. THIS WILL RESULT IN SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST
WINDS TONIGHT AT 8-10 KTS, THEN INCREASING FROM THE SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST AT 12-15 KTS BY 16Z. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST, WITH
ONLY SOME CLOUD AOA100.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  77  50  74  47 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  77  47  73  46 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  78  50  74  48 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  78  49  76  48 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  74  48  73  45 /   0   0   0   0
P28  76  52  76  48 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BURKE
LONG TERM...GERARD
AVIATION...FINCH


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