Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 141734
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1234 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

...UPDATE TO SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1234 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

A COLD FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY TRAVERSE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF TOMORROW. IN THE MEANTIME, FAIRLY TRANQUIL WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH NO SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. OVERNIGHT MINIMUMS WILL
BE SLIGHTLY WARMER AS SOUTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE IN THE WARM SECTOR THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT. POST-FRONTAL STRATUS IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE FROPA.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW ONLY A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF MUCAPE AND PROFILES
THEMSELVES ARE NOT THAT FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. THINK THE MODELS
ARE SHOWING QPF BECAUSE THEY ARE PICKING UP ON THE STRATUS BEHIND THE
FRONT. HAVE SEEN THIS BEFORE WITH THERE IS 0.01" WHERE THE MODEL IS
GENERATING LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. FORECAST COMPOSITE REFLECTIVITIES ARE NOT
THAT IMPRESSIVE EITHER, SO WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED IF MORE AREAS JUST
SAW CLOUDS THAN ANY PRECIPITATION. THERE WILL BE A FAIRLY TIGHT TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S IN THE NORTHWEST TO
MID 80S ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 AM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

THIS MORNING`S RUN OF THE ECMWF AND GFS MODELS SHOW A COLD FRONT
NEARLY THROUGH OUR CWA BY 00Z TUESDAY. THUS 20 PERCENT POPS FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ONLY LEFT IN OUR EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN ZONES
FROM MEADE TO PRATT MONDAY EVENING, AND EXITING TO THE SOUTHEAST
BY MIDNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT. THERE IS A SHORT WAVE COMING THROUGH THE
UPPER NORTHWEST FLOW TUESDAY NIGHT, AND THERE WILL BE SLIGHT
CHANCES FOR CONVECTION IN OUR NORTHEAST ZONES NEAR HAYS AND
LACROSSE AROUND MIDNIGHT TUESDAY, SPREADING SOUTHWARD INTO OUR
EASTERN ZONES INCLUDING LARNED AND PRATT TOWARDS WEDNESDAY
MORNING. AND THEN CONTINUING INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER WAVE
IS NOT TOO STRONG, AND SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED. THURSDAY
AND THURSDAY NIGHT WILL SEE A RIDGE OF UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS, WITH A LEE SIDE TROUGH BECOMING
THE FOCUS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN OUR WEST NEAR THE
COLORADO BORDER FRIDAY.

A LARGE SCALE UPPER TROUGH WILL CROSS FROM THE ROCKIES INTO THE
PLAINS FRIDAY NIGHT, BRINGING A FAIRLY GOOD CHANCE FOR STORMS
ACROSS ALL OUR FORECAST AREA. A COLD FRONT WILL SINK DOWN INTO
CENTRAL KANSAS FRIDAY NIGHT, AND THEN WALLER BACK NORTHWARD AS A
WARM FRONT ON SATURDAY. THE CONSALL MODEL BLEND PLACED 30 TO 50
PERCENT POPS ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.
DUE TO A FRONT AND SHARPLY AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH, THE POTENTIAL
FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL EXIST.

TEMPERATURES WILL START MILD WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S ON
TUESDAY, AND WARM INTO THE 84F TO 90F DEGREE RANGE WEDNESDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR THE PERIOD WILL BE IN
THE 55F TO 65F DEGREE RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. CIGS EXPECTED TO DECREASE TO MVFR AND
POSSIBLY IFR (PARTICULARLY FOR KHYS) AS POST-FRONTAL STRATUS MOVES IN
ACROSS THE REGION TOMORROW MORNING. A WIND SHIFT WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY
THE FRONT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  85  59  71  55 /   0   0  20  10
GCK  86  58  66  54 /   0   0  20  10
EHA  87  61  67  56 /   0   0  20  10
LBL  87  61  76  57 /   0   0  20  20
HYS  80  58  67  50 /   0  20  20  10
P28  85  64  84  57 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SUGDEN
LONG TERM...BURKE
AVIATION...SUGDEN


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