Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 210656
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
156 AM CDT Fri Apr 21 2017


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 151 AM CDT Fri Apr 21 2017

A wet day in store for the entire forecast area, with rainfall
amounts on the order of an inch expected under the cold conveyor
belt of this developing dynamic low.  We made significant changes
for afternoon highs today, following the cooler WRF highs only in
the 40s to around 50 degrees this afternoon. The upper 500 mb low
should be positioned squarely over our forecast area by the
middle of this afternoon, ensuring the entire area located in low
clouds and rain shower bands allowing little warming from
insolation. Rapid clearing from subsidence could occur in the
extreme southwest by late day. However, the signal from the
models suggests rain showers persisting across much of the area
east of highway 283 through at least midnight as the broad upper
low is slow to move toward the Mississippi Valley.

Temperatures will be colder on Saturday morning, however probably
not as cold that frost should be an issue so quick behind the
exiting system. Frost risk is probably greater looking ahead to
Sunday morning when more clearing, radiational cooling and lighter
surface winds are likely.


.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 151 AM CDT Fri Apr 21 2017

Main weather impacts in the extended appear to lean towards fire
weather again as the temperatures moderate into early next week, as
well as a brief threat for frost/freeze on Sunday morning. Right
now, the coldest solutions for Sunday morning are the NAM/WRF and
it`s MOS lows with temperatures falling as cold as 30 through the
Ark Valley from Dodge City west. Fire weather may become elevated
as temperatures warm into the 80s early in the week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)

Local TAF area will be under the influence of a cold conveyor
belt today, with periods of rain and isolated thunderstorms. As a
result the main impacts for aviation will be IFR and potential for
LIFR CIGS with reduced MVFR VSBY`s in rain through the day. The
system will not lift out of the area until later tonight.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  47  52  38  59 /  70 100  40  10
GCK  46  51  36  58 /  50  90  20  10
EHA  47  54  37  58 /  80  90  10   0
LBL  48  54  37  58 / 100 100  10   0
HYS  46  53  40  60 /  50 100  90  10
P28  50  55  42  60 /  30 100  70  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Russell
LONG TERM...Russell
AVIATION...Russell



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