Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 281120
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
620 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 100 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

Any overnight showers and thunderstorms will quickly exit to the east
by 8 am or 9 am. The rest of today will be dry. The old 12Z ARW/NMM
models were showing convection for this evening across far western Kansas,
but the 00Z data solutions have backed off on this. Water vapor imagery
shows a departing synoptic trof with subsidence in its wake. So, will
keep pops aob 10 percent across the forecast area for this afternoon
and evening. A light northerly wind is expected today in the wake of
a weak passing cold front. Highs will range from upper 80s to lower
90s, with the warmest across Barber county. Overnight lows should range
from the upper 50s across west-central Kansas to mid 60s across south-
central Kansas. No precipitation is expected through the overnight period,
with pops trending to zero percent.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday THROUGH Thursday)
ISSUED AT 200 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

A Summer-time pattern continues across southwest Kansas through much
of the long term domain. Highs Saturday should be in the upper 80s to
near 90 degrees again. High pressure will ridge across the central plains
with weak southerly flow developing on the backside of the departing
high be Saturday evening. No precipitation is expected. Highs will moderate
a few degrees Sunday and Monday with widespread 90s. On Tuesday evening,
the superblend has 15-20 percent pops across the northern zones. The
00Z ECMWF is indicating isolated convection developing along the surface
trough with plenty of daytime heating. This looks fine for now given
the long range uncertainty and the low pop values. More 90+ weather
and predominantly dry conditions should close out the rest of the extended
period.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z Saturday MORNING)
ISSUED AT 620 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015


11-3.9 satellite imagery and METAR observations show and gradually
dimninishing mid level clouds across the DDC terminal site and
points east. This trend will rapidly continue supported by the
HRRR cieling foreacst fields. Light surface winds and VFR will
flight category will prevail for the remainder of the TAF period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  89  61  89  62 /  10   0   0   0
GCK  89  60  89  61 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  89  60  89  62 /  10  10   0   0
LBL  90  61  90  62 /  10  10   0   0
HYS  88  60  89  60 /  10   0   0   0
P28  92  64  90  64 /  20  10   0   0

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Sugden
LONG TERM...Sugden
AVIATION...Russell



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