Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 270847
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
347 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

...UPDATED SHORT TERM SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015


CHALLENGING FORECAST EARLY THIS MORNING WITH RESPECT TO (MOSTLY
ELEVATED) RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS BEING DRIVEN SOUTH ALONG A
850-700 MB BAROCLINIC/WARM FRONTOGENETIC ZONE FROM WESTERN
NEBRASKA INTO WESTERN KANSAS. THIS AREA ALSO IS BEING INFLUENCED
BY WEAK UPSLOPE SURFACE WINDS AND 850 MB COLD AIR ADVECTION. THE
NAM SUGGESTED A DRY FORECAST THIS MORNING FOR OUR AREA, WITH NO
PRECIPITATION BEING GENERATED DESPITE THE INCREASE IN 2D
FRONTOGENESIS THROUGH THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR. HOWEVER THE HRRR IS
MORE AGGRESSIVE IN PRODUCING SMALL SWATHS OF 0.01" TO A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AND INCH. IN MOST CASES AREAS SHOULD REMAIN DRY OR
BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF BRIEF SPRINKLES, HOWEVER BRIEF MOMENTS
OF INTENSIFIED REFLECTIVITY WOULD SUGGEST MORE IMPRESSIVE
HYDROMETEORS MAKING IT TO LOWER LEVELS. FALLING TEMPERATURES UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF 850 MB COLD ADVECTION IN CENTRAL KS WILL FORCE
THE POSSIBILITY OF FLURRIES OR A BRIEF SNOW SHOWER THROUGH THE
I-70 CORRIDOR.

WINDS WILL RETURN TO THE SOUTH LATER IN THE DAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS MOVING EAST INTO THE UPEPR MIDWEST/MO VALLEY. CIRRUS
CLOUDS ALONG THE WEAKENING BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE AT
LEAST A SMALL IMPACT ON INSOLATION. HOWEVER THE CONSENSUS OF MODELS
SUPPORTS 60S ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA BY
AFTERNOON WITH MILDER OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT IN THE LOW TO MID 40S
AND GENERALLY MORE ISOLATED 30`S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 223 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

A FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER REGIME WILL BE FOUND ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH THE ONLY SENSIBLE WEATHER CHANGE OF
NOTE BEING A FRONTAL PASSAGE SUNDAY MORNING. A FAIRLY FAST-MOVING,
LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE LARGER SCALE ZONAL PATTERN...FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES THROUGH
THE MIDWEST REGION LATE IN THE WEEKEND. THE HIGH PRESSURE IN THE
WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE OF PACIFIC ORIGIN WITH DOWNSLOPE
MODIFICATION, SO TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY AND MONDAY
WILL NOT BE ALL THAT COOL, AND IN FACT STILL ABOVE THE SEASONAL
AVERAGE (AVG. HIGH OF LOWER-MID 60S FOR DODGE CITY) FOR LATE MARCH.
THERE WILL NOT BE ANY GULF MOISTURE INVOLVED TO GENERATE ANY
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WITH THIS LATE WEEKEND STORM ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS.

ANOTHER ZONAL PACIFIC JET WILL MOVE INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND
NORTHERN ROCKIES LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THIS, WARM
TEMPERATURES WILL BE FOUND ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS AHEAD OF THE
PACIFIC FRONT WITH THIS STORM SYSTEM. BETTER QUALITY GULF MOISTURE
WILL LIKELY BE INVOLVED WITH THIS STORM, WHICH IS WHY WE WILL CARRY
SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH KANSAS. YET ANOTHER EVEN STRONGER STORM SYSTEM QUICK
ON ITS HEELS COULD YIELD BETTER PRECIPITATION CHANCES AT THE END OF
THIS FORECAST TIME FRAME HEADING INTO THURSDAY AND FRIDAY (APRIL 2-
3).

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 132 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

A MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE ORIENTED FROM THE NORTHERN SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE SOURCE FOR ELEVATED SHOWERS. ANY
REAL THREAT FOR STRATUS IN THE IFR/MVFR RANGE WILL BE OVER CENTRAL
KANSAS AND AFFECTING THE HYS TERMINAL THROUGH MID MORNING (BEFORE
INSOLATION WARMS THE BOUNDARY LAYER).


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  67  41  78  48 /  10   0   0   0
GCK  72  40  80  47 /  10   0   0   0
EHA  74  44  83  48 /  10   0   0   0
LBL  73  41  82  48 /  10   0   0   0
HYS  60  39  75  47 /  20   0   0  10
P28  60  40  77  48 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RUSSELL
LONG TERM...UMSCHEID
AVIATION...RUSSELL


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