Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 201925
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
225 PM CDT WED JUL 20 2016

...Updated Long Term...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Wed Jul 20 2016

Strong 599 dm upper anticyclone centered over western Oklahoma at
midday. Sinking air everywhere with no clouds across the central
and southern plains. With an increase in thickness over Tuesday,
and excellent mixing from SW winds gusting near 30 mph, all
locales will be easily hotter than yesterday. All locations within
a few degrees of 100 at peak heating this afternoon. All pops are
zero this afternoon and tonight. May see a cumulus or two under
the subsident high this afternoon. Another LLJ overnight with SW
850 mb winds near 45 kts. Mixing will keep all locales in the 70s
Thursday morning.

Thursday...Hot! 598 dm upper high directly over SW KS, with full
searing sunshine and few if any clouds. 850mb thermal field near
30C will support afternoon maximum temperatures of 100-105 for all
counties. So it will be very hot everywhere. The challenge is
determining the amount of (or lack of) dewpoint mixing during the
afternoon, and where a heat advisory is required. Feel widespread
green vegetation will hold surface dewpoints in the lower 60s
during peak heating Thursday, which translates to a heat index of
105-108 across much of the eastern zones for 1-3 hours. In
coordination with WFOs GID/ICT have issued a heat advisory for the
eastern CWA. With no change in thickness or 850 mb temperatures,
allowed the advisory to continue through Friday afternoon. Kept
all zones dry Thursday with token pops (<15%), but GFS/NAM/ECMWF
all suggest isolated thunderstorms may approach the NW CWA
Thursday evening on the NW periphery of the upper high.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 225 PM CDT Wed Jul 20 2016

The heat will continue across SW KS Friday and Saturday, even as
high pressure slowly weakens with lowering heights aloft. The heat
advisory is scheduled to continue through Friday evening. Triple
digit heat expected in all areas Friday afternoon, with the most
dangerous heat indices (>105) across the eastern zones. Model
guidance has been consistent with suggesting high pressure will
weaken enough to allow isolated thunderstorms across the northern
zones Friday afternoon. With weak flow aloft and warm mid level
temperatures, purposely kept thunderstorm coverage isolated/slight
chance (<25%).

Saturday...A couple degrees less hot, probably enough to let the
heat advisory expire. Prospects for thunderstorms will begin
increasing across especially the western counties, as high
pressure continues to weaken and modest NW flow begins to
reestablish.

Sunday...Heat wave expected to break, as 850 mb temperatures cool
several degrees, and a weak boundary arrives from the north adding
an easterly component to surface winds. Afternoon temperatures
will reduce back to near normal. Expect a daily chance of mainly
afternoon/evening thunderstorms Sunday through Tuesday. High
pressure aloft will remain well west of SW KS, near the Great
Basin, during this time, allowing for NW flow and its associated
rain chances to continue.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1200 PM CDT Wed Jul 20 2016

VFR/SKC through Thursday, with only a few cumulus each afternoon.
SW winds gusting near 30 kts this afternoon, diminishing at
sunset. Consensus of short term models again develops widespread
low level wind shear starting around 06z, with 850 mb winds (LLJ)
peaking around 45 kts. No changes Thursday; SKC and no convection
with high pressure firmly in control. After 15z Thu, SW winds
15-25 kts at all airports.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  98  73 103  74 /   0   0  10  10
GCK 101  72 101  71 /   0   0  10  10
EHA 100  71 102  71 /   0   0  10  10
LBL 100  71 103  72 /   0   0   0   0
HYS 101  75 104  74 /   0   0  10  10
P28 100  75 104  77 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Heat Advisory from 1 PM Thursday to 8 PM CDT Friday for KSZ030-
031-044>046-064>066-079>081-089-090.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Turner
LONG TERM...Turner
AVIATION...Turner


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