Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 171150
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
650 AM CDT Sun Sep 17 2017

...Updated Aviation Section...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 300 AM CDT Sun Sep 17 2017

Model soundings this morning indicating a fairly deep layer of
low level moisture across western Kansas today. These low clouds
will be slow to erode through the day and there even may be a few
break of sun late day near the Oklahoma border, especially in
south central Kansas. Most areas however will stay cloudy
throughout the day. Give this expected cloud cover and a
persistent northeasterly wind do not expect much of a diurnal
change in temperatures today. Am currently favoring trending
towards the cooler guidance which has highs mainly in the mid 60s
to lower 70s. Highs today do have a chance to climb into into the
mid 70s if we can get some sun for a couple of hours but the
better chance is that highs will end up in some locations a couple
of degrees cooler than the mid 60s.

There will also be a chance for some precipitation off and on
during the day, mainly early, but do not expect much in the way of
rainfall accumulations. A better chance for convection will occur
during the overnight hours as an upper level wave moves out of New
Mexico and across southwest Kansas.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 300 AM CDT Sun Sep 17 2017

The first in a series of upper level troughs will be crossing the
western United States early next week. This first upper level
trough move out into the Plains Tuesday night with the better
upper level dynamics being located well north of the I-70
corridor. As this system crosses the Northern Plains early
Wednesday a surface cold front will drop south across western
Kansas which will briefly bring an end to way little warming trend
that will occur Monday and Tuesday. No precipitation is
anticipated with the frontal passage but the high temperatures are
expected to fall back from the 90s on Tuesday to the 80s on
Wednesday.

Once this upper level system lifts north into Canada late
Wednesday the next, stronger, upper level trough will exit the
eastern Pacific and begin to cross the western United States. As
this next system deepens and slowly approaches the central Rockies
late week gusty south wind winds can be expected along with a
warming trend. Precipitation chances will hold off until late week
and on Friday it appears the better chances for convection will
be along the deepening surface trough that will be located over
eastern Colorado as an upper level disturbance exits the base of
the western United states Low/trough and approaches western
Kansas. Given the latest model trends Friday night and Saturday
currently appears to be the next decent chance for precipitation
across all of western Kansas.

Gusty winds, unseasonably warm temperatures, and low afternoon
relative humidity values currently forecast across western Kansas
Tuesday may result in near critical fire weather conditions on
Tuesday afternoon. Elevated fire weather conditions will also be
possible Wednesday and Thursday based on the forecast low dew
points and gusty southeasterly winds.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
Issued at 648 AM CDT Sun Sep 17 2017

VFR conditions generally will prevail in HYS today, becoming IFR
after midnight. MVFR conditions can be expected in DDc and GCK,
improving to VFR after 20Z.

A stationary front that extended from central Missouri across
central Oklahoma into eastern New Mexico will move little today
but will begin to lift north as a warm front after sunset. Low
level moisture lifting over the frontal surface will result in
extensive stratus with ceilings near 015 across southern and
central Kansas today. The stratus gradually will erode this
afternoon. Low level northeast winds at 10 to 15 kts will become
east this afternoon and southeast tonight.

A weak upper level trough in eastern Colorado will move into
Nebraska by noon. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will affect
DDC through 14Z and HYS through 18Z. Another upper level trough
will move from western New Mexico to eastern Colorado by this
evening. Scattered thunderstorms are likely to develop north of
the warm front in eastern Colorado and the Texas Panhandle this
afternoon and to move into southern Kansas this evening. A cluster
of thunderstorms is likely to develop in central Kansas tonight
north of the warm front. IFR ceilings can be expected to form in
HYS after 07Z and to persist through 12Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 300 AM CDT Sun Sep 17 2017

Fire danger levels will be on the increase early next week as warm
and dry conditions return to western Kansas. Gusty south winds
will develop during the day on Tuesday and given the expected
afternoon relative humidity values across western Kansas critical
or near critical fire weather conditions will be possible,
especially west of a Garden City to Liberal line.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  69  62  88  64 /  20  30  10  10
GCK  67  56  87  59 /  20  30  10  10
EHA  71  55  88  59 /  10  20  10  10
LBL  72  59  89  61 /  20  30  10  10
HYS  68  59  84  62 /  40  50  20  10
P28  74  63  89  66 /  40  30  30  20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Burgert
LONG TERM...Burgert
AVIATION...Ruthi
FIRE WEATHER...Burgert



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