Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 271742
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1242 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

...UPDATED SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1242 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

TONIGHT:

IT IS STILL UNCLEAR OUT STORM EVOLUTION WILL PLAY OUT TONIGHT.
TOOK SOME INPUT FROM THE HRRR AND MORE IMPORTANTLY THE WRF-ARW FOR
A BASELINE OF GRID PRODUCTS. THINK CONVECTION WILL FIRE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON ROUGHLY BETWEEN HIGHWAY 83 AND HIGHWAY 283. WILL HAVE TO
WATCH DOWN BY LIBERAL, MEADE, AND ULYSSES AS THE WINDS ARE MORE
BACKED HERE. THIS COULD LEAD TO A SLIGHTLY HIGHER TORNADO THREAT.
CAPE WILL BE IN THE 2000-3000 J/KG ALONG WITH 30-40 KT OF SHEAR.
THE LOW LEVEL PROFILE HAS GOOD DIRECTIONAL SHEAR, HOWEVER, SPEED
SHEAR IS NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE. THINK THE MAIN THREATS FOR THIS
EVENING WILL BE LARGE HAIL UP TO TENNIS BALL SIZE, HEAVY RAINFALL
WITH LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING, AND A BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO WITH THE
INITIAL ONSET OF CONVECTION. THE HRRR HAS THE STORMS EVOLVING INTO
A MESSY CLUSTER LATER TONIGHT, SO THAT COULD POTENTIALLY LEAD TO
LESS OF A TORNADO THREAT FOR AREAS EAST OF DODGE CITY. PWATS WILL
REMAIN STATISTICALLY SIGNIFICANT THROUGH THE EVENT, SO A FEW
INCHES OF RAIN IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR AREAS THAT ARE
UNDERNEATH TRAINING STORMS. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL JET
STRENGTHENS ALONG WITH THETA-E ADVECTION. LOWS WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

TOMORROW:

THE WET PATTERN CONTINUES WITH ANOTHER SHOT AT CONVECTION DURING
THE AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY WILL BE PLENTY FOR SEVERE WEATHER,
HOWEVER, SHEAR TOMORROW IS FORECAST TO BE WEAKER. SO STORM TYPES
MAY BE MORE ALONG THE LINE OF MULTICELLULAR CLUSTERS WITH
TRANSIENT SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. LARGE HAIL, WIND, AND HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IS LESS
IMPRESSIVE AND UPPER LEVEL WINDS BACK WITH HEIGHT, SO A MORE MESSY
STORM TYPE IS MORE LIKELY. HIGHS WILL BE AROUND 80.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

A DECAYING MCS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING ACROSS PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AS AS A RESULT, POPS WERE MAINTAINED,
INCREASED WITH HEAVY RAIN AS A POTENTIAL WX IMPACT. THE EC MOS WAS
USED FOR THE HIGH TEMPERATURES WHICH HAD SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGHS IN
CENTRAL KANSAS, WHICH IS LIKELY IF RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER HANGS AROUND
PART OR MOST OF THE DAY. SOME TYPE OF A REPEAT EVENT IS PROBABLE ON
FRIDAY NIGHT AS WELL, HOWEVER THE MESOSCALE INFLUENCES OBVIOUSLY
CANNOT BE KNOW AT THIS TIME. ANY WEAK LOW LEVEL JET INTERACTION WITH
THE VERY HIGH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE THAT WILL EXIST SHOULD INDUCE
CONVECTION.

A SURFACE HIGH ORIGINATING IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL BEGIN TO
INFLUENCES  THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS BY FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY,
BRINGING A MARKED DROP IN SURFACE DEW POINTS, AND RESULTANT LOWER
OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPERATURES IN THE FOLLOWING DAYS AS WELL AS MUCH
LOWER PRECIPITATION CHANCES. EARLY NEXT WEEK THE MODELS RAMP UP THE
DAILY HIGHS THROUGH THE 80S AS THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO HAVE AN
INFLUENCE ON THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

CIGS SHOULD BE PRIMARILY VFR. THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE THAT
A LOCALLY SEVERE STORM COULD MOVE ACROSS THE TERMINALS THIS
EVENING AND PROVIDE REDUCED CIGS, BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH IN
TIMING OR LOCATION. WILL CONTINUE WITH TSRA/CB GROUPS FOR THIS
EVENING FOR NOW. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS. WINDS WILL
BE SOUTHEASTERLY 5-15 KT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  82  61  80  61 /  50  60  60  70
GCK  82  59  81  58 /  50  60  40  50
EHA  85  58  80  56 /  40  40  30  30
LBL  85  60  81  60 /  40  50  40  50
HYS  80  61  79  60 /  50  60  60  70
P28  82  64  79  65 /  50  70  60  60

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SUGDEN
LONG TERM...RUSSELL
AVIATION...SUGDEN


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