Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 290524
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1224 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 100 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

A FEW ISOLATED STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS
EARLY THIS EVENING IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING
SOUTHWARD INTO OKLAHOMA. OTHERWISE, SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE A
LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINING LOCKED IN ACROSS THE GREAT
BASIN THROUGH MONDAY ENHANCING A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE
WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. ALTHOUGH AMPLE MOISTURE REMAINS SETTLED
ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS, A WEAK FLOW ALOFT AND SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS WILL LIMIT PRECIP
CHANCES ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BACK DOWN INTO THE 60S(F) ONCE AGAIN
TONIGHT AS ANOTHER ROUND OF COOLER AIR FILTERS SOUTHWARD INTO
WESTERN KANSAS IN WAKE OF ANOTHER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS
AFTERNOON. FOR MONDAY, THE WEAK SURGE OF COOLER AIR WILL LEVEL OFF
THE WARMING TREND WITH HIGHS ONCE AGAIN REACHING THE 90S(F) ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS MONDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS PERIODS FOR CONVECTIVE ACTION IN OUR AREA ARE AROUND
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND,
ALTHOUGH IT IS POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY AS WELL. SOUTHWEST KANSAS WILL
REMAIN INFLUENCED BY THE EASTERN EDGE OF AN UPPER MEAN RIDGE AND
GENERALLY SUBSIDENT NORTHWEST FLOW HEADING THOUGH TUESDAY, WITH
LITTLE OPPORTUNITY FOR CONVECTION TO DEVELOP. WITH THE BREAKDOWN
OF THE RIDGING AND MORE CROSS TERRAIN FLOW MIDWEEK, THE MODELS
DEVELOP A WEAK CENTRAL PLAINS SURFACE LOW/CONVERGENCE ZONE. THIS
COULD BE A FOCUS AREA OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ON WEDNESDAY AS
WELL AS THURSDAY. THE ECMWF AND GFS HAVE MAINTAINED A FLATTENING
OF THE WESTERN MEAN RIDGE AND AN EQUATORWARD SHIFTING OF THE UPPER
WESTERLY JET, WHICH SHOULD ENHANCE ORGANIZED CONVECTION
OPPORTUNITIES IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1223 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. WINDS
WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND FROM A NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION THIS
MORNING SHIFTING TO MORE OF AN EASTERLY DIRECTION THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  66  97  72  99 /   0   0  10  20
GCK  64  98  71  99 /   0   0  10  20
EHA  65  97  72  99 /  10   0  10  20
LBL  66  97  72 100 /  10   0  10  20
HYS  65 100  71  98 /   0  10  10  20
P28  67 100  74  99 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJOHNSON
LONG TERM...RUSSELL
AVIATION...HOVORKA_42



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