Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 250019
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
719 PM CDT Sun Aug 24 2014

...Updated Aviation Section...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT SUN AUG 24 2014

A strong shortwave trough was ejecting northeastward into the
northern plains this afternoon. The associated cold front had pushed
into southwest Kansas and stalled out. A few thunderstorms can`t be
ruled out in south central Kansas this evening ahead of the cold
front. Some elevated shower activity may develop tonight along the
Interstate 70 corridor to the south of the upper level jet streak;
but most of the precipitation should stay farther north. The front
will slowly edge northward tonight and Monday as the next upper
level trough digs into Nevada. This will result in a resumption of
southerly winds at 5 to 10 kts late tonight across much of southwest
Kansas. Lows will be mainly in the 60s to lower 70s. By Monday
afternoon, thunderstorms will develop along the stalled out front
in northern Kansas where low level moisture will be converging.
Thunderstorms may also develop farther south into western Kansas
ahead of a weak dryline. The best chance of severe storms with
large hail will be well north of Interstate 70 where surface based
CAPE and vertical wind shear will be stronger. High temperatures
ought to be in the upper 90s to near 100F given mostly sunny skies
with south winds.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT SUN AUG 24 2014

An upper level trough will move from Nevada and into the
Intermountain West on Wednesday, then into the Central Plains on
Thursday, and will be slow to exit the Central Plains by Saturday
afternoon. New model runs have this upper system slowing down its
progress and this will allow for thunderstorm chances Tuesday into
Saturday, with the best chances from Tuesday night into Thursday
with a cold front. The storms may linger near to east of Dodge City
on Saturday as the upper wave moves eastward. Severe storm chances
do not look all that favorable with fairly weak upper level wind
fields.

Daytime highs will be warm and in the mid to upper 90s ahead of the
front on Tuesday, then in the low to mid 90s on Wednesday, cooling
into the 80s for Thursday and Friday. Highs warm back up to around
90 for the Weekend. Overnight lows around 70 on Monday night and
Tuesday night cool into the 60s into the Weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
ISSUED AT 715 PM CDT SUN AUG 24 2014

A weak frontal boundary which pushed south earlier in the day
stalled out near the western Kansas-Oklahoma border. Winds behind
this front will remain light at 6 to 9 knots through the night.
The front will dissolve overnight with winds increasing from the
south by Monday morning. Monday winds are expected to be 12 to 16
knots, particularly in the afternoon with some higher gusts in the
lower-mid 20s knots. VFR conditions will continue through the period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  69  99  70  96 /  10  20  20  30
GCK  67  98  68  94 /  10  20  30  30
EHA  66  98  67  93 /  10  20  20  40
LBL  68  99  69  95 /  10  20  20  30
HYS  67 100  69  94 /  20  30  30  40
P28  73 100  74  98 /  20  20  10  20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Finch
LONG TERM...Kruse
AVIATION...Umscheid






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