Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 250938
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
438 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

...UPDATED LONG TERM SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON WILL LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD INTO NORTHWESTERN KANSAS BY LATE TONIGHT AND THEN
INTO NEBRASKA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH THE LOWER LEVELS HAVE
BEEN STABILIZED SOMEWHAT BY REPEATED MCS ACTIVITY OVER THE PAST
FEW DAYS, SOME RECOVERY IS EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON OVER FAR
WESTERN KANSAS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AND MID TO UPPER LEVEL COLD
POOL. THUNDERSTORMS WERE ALREADY DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF COLORADO. ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL DEVELOP
CLOSE TO THE COLORADO STATE LINE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE DEEP
LAYERED SHEAR MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR ROTATING STORMS BUT A
TRANSITION TO MORE LINEAR TYPE STRUCTURES IS LIKELY GIVEN THE
STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT. ALSO, UPPER LEVEL WINDS IN THE TROUGH
AXIS WERE WEAK, YIELDING VERY WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHEAR. SO DESPITE
THE MODERATE SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES, HAIL ONLY AS LARGE AS HALF
DOLLARS IS EXPECTED. THE STORMS WILL PROBABLY EVOLVE INTO AN
ORGANIZED CLUSTER AND PROGRESS NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS
TONIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL BE ALONG AND NORTH OF A
LINE FROM ELKHART TO GARDEN CITY TO HAYS. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
WILL BE HELD UP BY CLOUDS AND HIGH DEWPOINTS, WITH MAINLY 60S IN
CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND 50S IN FAR WESTERN KANSAS.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH WESTERN KANSAS BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. A FEW LATE DAY THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE. DUE TO THE WEAK SHEAR, THESE STORMS WILL PROBABLY BE
LIMITED TO SMALL HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
WARMER IN THE ABSENCE OF UPSLOPE FLOW, WITH HIGHS FROM THE MID 70S
IN FAR WESTERN KANSAS TO THE LOWER 80S IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 434 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

HIGH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN REGARD TO THE EXTENDED PERIOD AND
CONVECTIVE/FLOODING THREATS. LARGE DISCREPANCIES IN THE MODEL OUTPUT
FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EXIST. THE POSSIBILITY EXISTS FOR
STORMS TO CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY MORNING, AS THE NAM IS INDICATING AT
THIS TIME, WITH REGENERATION LATER IN THE DAY AND EVENING. HOWEVER,
THE SHEAR LOOKS WEAK, SUPPORTING MORE OF A HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN
THREAT THAN SUPERCELLS. THE SHEAR INCREASES SUBSTANTIALLY ON
WEDNESDAY WHICH HAS LOOKED LIKE A GOOD SEVERE WEATHER DAY FOR A
FEW SHIFTS RUNNING NOW. THE MEAN UPPER FLOW SHIFTS TO A TROUGH
ACROSS THE DESERT SW LATE IN THE WEEK, WITH ADDITIONAL
OPPORTUNITIES FOR WEAK SHORTWAVES IN THE BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT DRIFTING THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS REGION. THE MODEL
CONSENSUS FORECAST WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS IN FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD
GIVEN THE FORECAST AREA HAS GOOD LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND THESE
POTENTIALLY POORLY TIMED/PREDICTABLE FORCING MECHANISMS. A
RELATIVELY DRY PERIOD MAY SETUP BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A MID LEVEL
RIDGE IS INDICATED BY THE EC/GFS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 131 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

ACTIVE EVENING TO EARLY OVERNIGHT OF STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS IS BEGINNING TO SLOW DOWN FOR THE GCK AND HYS
TERMINALS WHILE A COUPLE MORE HOURS WILL EXIST FOR DDC. OTHERWISE,
CEILING AND VISIBILITY VALUES ARE IMPROVING BEHIND THE CONVECTION
WITH MVFR VALUES ANTICIPATED. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TOWARD THIS
AFTERNOON AS NEXT ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPS ALONG A SLOW
MOVING FRONT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  78  53  78  57 /  30  40  20  20
GCK  76  53  77  55 /  40  40  20  20
EHA  77  53  78  54 /  30  30  20  20
LBL  77  54  79  57 /  30  30  20  20
HYS  77  54  79  56 /  30  40  10  20
P28  78  58  77  60 /  20  30  30  30

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FINCH
LONG TERM...RUSSELL
AVIATION...AJOHNSON



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