Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 040557
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1257 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

...Updated for aviation discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH Friday)
ISSUED AT 1248 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

The morning upper air analysis and water vapor loop continued to
reveal a fairly deep longwave trough centered across the coast of
western North America with downstream ridging centered across the
central CONUS. Tropical Storm Kevin in the Eastern Pacific was
responsible for proving a stream of high level moisture (in the form
of cirrus/cirrostratus) into the Rockies and adjacent High
Plains. Lee trough convergence will be best across far eastern
Colorado into northwestern Kansas late this afternoon. This will be
the best area for isolated to widely scattered surface-based
thunderstorm activity. We will have some 15 POPs in far west central
Kansas counties for the possibility of a lee trough storm much like
yesterday late afternoon, however any thunderstorm will be fairly
short lived and quite isolated given the lack of deep tropospheric
forcing for ascent.

The story will be much the same on Friday with the lee trough in
check across eastern CO/northwest KS. A subtropical jet streak will
push northeast from the Desert Southwest region into the Colorado
Rockies, but deep tropospheric ascent tied to this jetlet will be
well to the northwest of the southwest KS region, so the forecast
will remain dry...and hot. As far as temperatures go, persistence is
a good forecast method so highs in the 97 to 100F range look pretty
good for much of the region.

.LONG TERM...(Friday NIGHT THROUGH Thursday)
ISSUED AT 238 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

Above average temperatures will continue through early next week as
deep tropospheric southwesterly downslope momentum will persist. The
deep longwave trough across western North America will shift slowly
east, with a rather vigorous mid-latitude cyclone developing within
the mean longwave trough pattern. This cyclone will remain well
north of the Central Plains -- so far north in fact, that the
initial cold front push will be fairly weak. This first indication
of this front will be late Sunday, but this this frontal push will
lose momentum and stall out somewhere across western/northwestern
Kansas. The GFS model is fairly persistent in developing convection
along this initial frontal push late Sunday afternoon. We will have
some 20-30 POPs in the grids for the Sunday Night period, as any
convection will likely be late in the day/evening. As warm as the
mid levels will be, we probably won`t even see surface-based
convection along the boundary this far west (most likely across
central/northeast KS).  The front will stall out across the
northern half of Kansas on Monday with a surface low developing
along it somewhere across western Kansas late in the afternoon as a
warm thermal ridge expands east-northeastward. Monday looks to be
yet another hot day...perhaps the warmest day of this entire warm
stretch with a number of locations touching or exceeding triple
digits.

Monday and Tuesday definitely look like better opportunities for
organized strong/severe thunderstorm activity affecting at least
some portion of southwest/west central/south central KS. ECMWF
shows better low level moisture and hence higher SBCAPE Monday
afternoon. If we can see some lower-mid 60s dewpoints east of a
dryline late Monday afternoon, then severe weather prospects look
good, since deep layer shear will be favorable for organized
multicell or supercell thunderstorms (0-6km AGL shear magnitude of
30 to 36 kts). With the front not likely moving a whole lot
Tuesday, strong/severe storm prospects still look good, with the
emphasis a bit farther south across far southwest/south central KS
perhaps. Eventually, the mid level front will be pushing in to
Kansas with better deep tropospheric frontogenesis for elevated
showers/thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z Friday NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1250 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

VFR conditions will persist through the period with only some
high cloud expected. Winds will be 15-25 kts during daytime
heating and 10-15 kts at night after the lower levels decouple.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  70  98  71  99 /   0  10  10  10
GCK  69  98  70  99 /  10  10  10  10
EHA  68  92  68  99 /  10  10  10  10
LBL  68  96  70 100 /  10  10  10  10
HYS  72  98  73 100 /  10  10  10  10
P28  73  96  74  98 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Umscheid
LONG TERM...Umscheid
AVIATION...Finch



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