Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 252323
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
623 PM CDT Thu May 25 2017

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 259 PM CDT Thu May 25 2017

Higher surface dew points will be gradually streaming north from the
southern Plains today through tomorrow. Both days, high plains
convection will be forming over central Colorado, and feeding into
the instability/CAPE axis into western Kansas late in the day. The
latest HRRR and 4 km NestedNAM drive clusters of convection through
the I-70 corridor from around 2 to 4 UTC this evening, tying into
the northern periphery of the low level moisture advection  wind
field convergence along the trailing edge of a weak northern Plains
cold front. These storms are already forming across northeast
Colorado. Stratus clouds may develop across central Kansas behind
this boundary toward the late overnight hours and the SREF
probabilities indicate, however the boundary will wash out with
rapid warming and a return to light easterly surface winds. Lee side
toughing develops again on Friday, with much higher low level
moisture to work with farther west. The NAM focuses another area of
convection near the best surface convergence over north CO and
driving a meso low across nw KS late Friday evening/night.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 259 PM CDT Thu May 25 2017

High surface pressure will be anchored over the northern Rockies
through the southern Plains.  Showers and isolated thunderstorms may
linger behind the boundary into Saturday morning, however
organized convection opportunity appear to shut down late Saturday
into Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 621 PM CDT Thu May 25 2017

A cold front will cross southwest Kansas overnight. As this
frontal boundary passes the winds will shift to the north
northeast at 15 to 20 knots. Prior to the frontal passage tonight
some widely scattered thunderstorms will be possible. A few of
these thunderstorms will be near the GCK airport for the next few
hours and then weaken as they approach the DDC airport towards
sunset. Around the HYS airport there will be a chance for VCTS
after sunset as scattered thunderstorms cross north central Kansas
between 02z and 06z. Model soundings indicating VFR conditions
for most of the night. The potential exists for brief period of
MVFR conditions from 10z Friday to 15z Friday at DDC and HYS
behind the surface cold front.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  57  80  59  76 /  20  10  20  20
GCK  55  80  57  75 /  20  20  20  20
EHA  55  81  55  77 /  10  20  10  20
LBL  56  82  57  79 /  10  20  10  20
HYS  57  78  58  73 /  40  10  30  30
P28  60  84  63  82 /  10   0  10  20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Russell
LONG TERM...Russell
AVIATION...Burgert



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