Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 022051
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
351 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

...UPDATED FOR SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW HAS BECOME ZONAL IN THE WAKE OF THE
MINOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT TRAVERSED THE CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY
EVENING. THE EFFECTIVE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AFTER ALL OF THE NIGHTTIME
CONVECTION WAS SITUATED ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHERN
ARKANSAS. SOUTH OF THIS FRONT, TEMPERATURES WERE ABOVE 90 AS OF 2
PM, BUT ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE FRONT, MOST READINGS WERE IN THE
70S TO LOWER 80S. LEE TROUGHING WLLL DEVELOP TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
IN RESPONSE TO THE ZONAL FLOW. LATE TONIGHT, WARMER MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES WILL SPREAD ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS, CAPPING THE
ELEVATED MOIST LAYER. THE NAM INDICATES THAT LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL
BECOME SOUTHERLY AS THE WARM FRONT SHIFTS INTO NORTHERN KANSAS BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, THE RAP SHOWS THE BOUNDARY STILL
SITUATED ALONG THE KANSAS/OKLAHOMA BORDER AT 12Z. SINCE WE MAY
MAINTAIN UPSLOPE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW MOST OF THE NIGHT, I OPTED TO
BRING THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG BACK IN TOWARD 09Z. A MID LEVEL
CLOUD DECK MAY DEVELOP AS THE LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS THIS EVENING
AND AN ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO CAN`T BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS BEFORE THE STRONG CAPPING INVERSION
DEVELOPS.

ON WEDNESDAY, THE LEE TROUGH WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE
HIGH PLAINS, WITH A WEAK SURFACE DRYLINE SITUATED ACROSS FAR
WESTERN KANSAS. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT
LATE IN THE DAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID TO HIGH 90S,WITH
SOME READINGS CLOSE TO 100F.


.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

THE LONGWAVE SYNOPTIC FLOW PATTERN WILL BE SOMEWHAT PROGRESSIVE
THROUGH THIS FORECAST, AT LEAST ENOUGH TO BRING SIGNIFICANT SENSIBLE
WEATHER CHANGES TO THE AREA FOR LATE IN THE WEEK. WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WILL SEE SUNNY AND VERY WARM TO HOT TEMPERATURES, AS THE
UPPER JET LIFTS NORTHWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES
ALLOWING THE LARGE SOUTHERN ROCKIES/SOUTHERN PLAINS HIGH PROVIDE
STRONG SUBSIDENCE, FULL INSOLATION AND SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS.
THE ECMWF/GFS AND NAM ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT IN BREAKING DOWN
THIS PATTERN BY THURSDAY AND BRINGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PLAINS OF WESTERN NEBRASKA AND AS FAR SOUTH AS WEST
CENTRAL KANSAS WITH THE LEADING COOLER AIR SURGE BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. CONVECTION COULD OCCUR LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON OR
EVENING AS WELL WITH THIS COLD FRONT FEATURE, BUT UPPER
SUPPORT/DYNAMICS FOR WIDESPREAD STORM DEVELOPMENT IS LACKING. THE
UPPER JET WILL SINK SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND
CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, DRIVING THE COLD FRONT FARTHER SOUTH
INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY SATURDAY MORNING. THE RESULT WILL BE
ADDITONAL CHANCES FOR POSSIBLY EVEN SEVERE STORMS, BUT PERHAPS
JUST POST SURFACE FRONTAL HIGH BASED CONVECTION FROM MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT WITH MUCH MORE PLEASANT
TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S.

A SLOW WARMING TREND IS LIKELY THROUGH THE LATE PART OF THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW BECOMES REESTABLISHED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1241 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

ZONAL FLOW IN THE WAKE OF AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL LEAD TO
RENEWED LEE TROUGHING AND A RETURN TO SOUTHERLY WINDS. AS A
RESULT, THE WARM FRONT OVER OKLAHOMA WILL ADVANCE NORTHWARD INTO
NORTHERN KANSAS TONIGHT. CIGS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE AT GCK/DDC TO
VFR THIS AFTERNOON WITH DAYTIME HEATING. GIVEN THE LACK OF UPSLOPE
COMPONENT TO THE WIND LATER TONIGHT, A RETURN TO LOW CIGS AND FOG
IS NOT EXPECTED.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  70  97  72  95 /  10   0  10  30
GCK  68  99  70  92 /   0   0  10  40
EHA  66  99  68  94 /   0  10  10  30
LBL  70  98  71  96 /   0   0  10  20
HYS  68  98  72  92 /  10  10  10  50
P28  72  97  74  97 /  30  10  10  20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FINCH
LONG TERM...RUSSELL
AVIATION...FINCH


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