Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 242030
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
330 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

...UPDATED FOR SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY PROGRESS EASTWARD ACROSS THE
PLAINS TONIGHT, WITH WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPE MID LEVEL FLOW
DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGH PLAINS BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AFTER
A WEAK SURFACE HIGH PUSHES SOUTHWARD INTO KANSAS TONIGHT, LEE
TROUGHING WILL DEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO THE MID LEVEL DOWNSLOPE FLOW
BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. LIGHT WINDS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
DROP INTO THE HIGH 40S IN FAR WESTERN KANSAS TONIGHT, WITH WARMER
50S FARTHER EAST. GIVEN THE SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN HIGH
PLAINS BY LATE SATURDAY, SURFACE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO HAVE A
SLIGHT EASTERLY COMPONENT. AS A RESULT, A SLIGHT UPSLOPE COMPONENT
SATURDAY AS OPPOSED TO THE DOWNSLOPE WINDS TODAY OUGHT TO RESULT
IN HIGH TEMPERATURES THAT ARE SLIGHTLY COOLER (MAINLY LOWER TO
MIDDLE 80S AS OPPOSED TO MID TO UPPER 80S). AFTER A PATCH OF
CIRRUS PASSES THIS AFTERNOON, SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR LATER
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 223 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

DRY AND WARM WEATHER IS ON TAP FOR THE WEEKEND AHEAD OF THE NEXT
LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO THE WESTERN U.S. AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON SATURDAY, WITH DRY
SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW ON SUNDAY, PUSHING VERY WARM AIR
ACROSS THE PLAINS. HIGHS FOR THE WEEKEND LOOK TO BE INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 80S AND LOWS IN THE 50S WITH LIGHT SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH WINDS
AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

ON MONDAY, AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE PLAINS,
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
THE WEST AND NORTHWEST WITH INCREASING CLOUDS. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM
AROUND 70 OVER FAR WESTERN KANSAS TO THE MID AND UPPER 70S OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES ARE
POSSIBLE ON MONDAY NIGHT AS THE MAIN WAVE AXIS AND UPPER COOLING
PUSHES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MODEL QPF IS VERY LIMITED HOWEVER,
AND MANY AREAS WILL NOT SEE ANY MEASURABLE RAINFALL. THE ECMWF HAS
BACKED WAY DOWN ON PREVIOUS QPF AND NOW MORE IN LINE WITH THE DRY
GFS.

FOR TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY, A DRY FORECAST CONTINUES WITH DRY UPPER
LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. A COOLER PERIOD IS FORECAST WITH HIGHS IN
THE 60S AND LOWS IN THE 40S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1256 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

A WEAK FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE TAF SITES TONIGHT, RESULTING IN
LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN
OVER THE HIGH PLAINS ON SATURDAY, RESULTING IN GENERALLY SOUTH
WINDS AT 10 KTS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  53  84  54  88 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  49  85  48  86 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  50  86  53  84 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  51  88  50  87 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  50  81  52  83 /   0   0   0   0
P28  57  86  57  90 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FINCH
LONG TERM...KRUSE
AVIATION...FINCH



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