Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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000
FXUS63 KDDC 161922
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
222 PM CDT Wed Apr 16 2014

...Update to short term...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 222 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

Tonight:

An upper level shortwave trough will move across the region through
the overnight. At the base of the trough, enhanced 300 Kelvin isentropic
lift and 900-700-hPa frontogenesis will lead to some precipitation beginning
tonight and continuing into tomorrow morning. Mesoscale models such
as the 4 km NAM and WRF-NMM/ARW, as well as the operational NAM have
trended with more of a southern track for this precip. As a result,
have adjusted pops with the highest probabilities across the southern
2 rows of counties. Locations along the Oklahoma border stand to see
most of the precip. The thermodynamic profile supports liquid precipitation.
The top down method suggests the slight (and I mean very low) probability
of mixed precipitation across far western Kansas at the tail end of
the event. Confidence though is extremely low on this evolving like
this and most areas should just see rain. Instability/mucape is not
forecast to be significant or even present, so thunderstorms are not
expected. Precipitation amounts look to be several hundredths along
Highway 50, to a few tenths near the Oklahoma border. South-central
Kansas could see the highest amounts with 3 or so tenths not out of
the question. The northern zones will see nothing. Non-freezing minimums
expected through the overnight into the morning hours.

Tomorrow:

Lingering precip and clouds will lead to lower maximums across south-
central Kansas. Some models don`t break out of the 40sF for P28, but
feel this might be a bit overdone. Elsewhere, 50sF are expected. Other
than some precip across the southeastern zones through 18Z, tomorrow
should be mainly dry with clearing skies, cooler temperatures, and upslope
low level winds by late afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 257 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

An upper level shortwave is progged to move through the Central
High Plains Wednesday night into Thursday bringing increased clouds
with a chance of precipitation. Models are a lot warmer than what
they were last night and have decided to go with all rain as the
type of precipitation. There could be a few snow flakes mixed in
across west central Kansas but no measurable accumulation is
expected at this time. Winds will generally be from the northeast
throughout the day with highs in the lower 50s.

Clouds will decrease in coverage Thursday night with mostly clear
skies expected on Friday. This is due to an upper level ridge
building above the Plains. Winds will shift back to more of a
southerly direction during this time frame. However, this will be
short lived as an upper level shortwave moves through the Southwest
United States and Four Corners Region Friday then into the Central
Rockies and Central Plains on Saturday. Clouds will be on the
increase Friday night as this system approaches with a chance of
thunderstorms Saturday into Saturday night. Additional isolated
thunderstorms will be possible again on Sunday with decreasing
cloudiness in the afternoon as the system exits the area. As for
temperatures, highs look to reach into the 70s Friday through Sunday
with lows Friday morning in the lower to mid 30s.  Lows Saturday
morning will generally be in the upper 40s with lows Sunday morning
ranging from the upper 40s across west central Kansas to mid 50s
across south central Kansas.

The remainder of the extended period looks dry with upper level
ridging building across the Rockies and southerly winds at the
surface. Skies should be partly cloudy. Highs Monday and Tuesday
look to be in the 70s with lows around 50 degrees.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1212 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

Confidence is increasing that -shra will not be impacting any of the
terminals. The best chance is for KDDC, but mesoscale models are trending
farther south. Will not have any weather in the TAFs for now due to
this trend. VFR conditions expected with the lowest VFR ceiling at KDDC
through the overnight.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  41  53  36  72 /  30  10   0   0
GCK  39  55  36  75 /  30  10   0   0
EHA  40  56  38  76 /  60  50   0   0
LBL  41  55  37  77 /  60  60   0   0
HYS  37  55  36  72 /  10  10   0   0
P28  44  51  39  71 /  50  60   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY until 4 PM CDT /3 PM MDT/ this afternoon FOR
KSZ043-044-061-062.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Sugden
LONG TERM...Hovorka_42
AVIATION...Sugden






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