Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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000
FXUS63 KDDC 230636
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
136 AM CDT Wed Jul 23 2014

...Updated short term discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 134 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

A weak cold front will move south across western Kansas early
this morning as a 500mb high moves slowly east across Colorado.
850mb temperature trends from 00z Wednesday to 00z Thursday
indicating only a few degree drop in 850mb temperatures behind
this front and mainly across north central Kansas. Given these
temperature trends the previous forecast looks on track with
temperatures similar across far western/southwestern Kansas while
only having a 3 to 5F temperature drop further east/northeast. Based
on moisture profiles late Wednesday/Wednesday night and track of
any subtle wave rotating around the upper high precipitation
chances still appear very small.

Tonight a southeasterly flow at around 10 mph will develop as a
trough of low pressure at the surface develops across eastern
Colorado. Given the expected dew points returning to south central
and western Kansas overnight and an easterly wind at around 10
knots the lows are expected to range from the upper 60s to around
70.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 342 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

Upper level ridging will build back into the high plains region for
Thursday and into the weekend. With renewed surface troughing over
western Kansas, high temperatures ought to warm back to the high
90s, with possibly some readings over 100F. Little in the way of
thunderstorm activity is expected, although isolated thunderstorms
can`t be ruled out, particularly in far western Kansas with
elevated heating. The next cold front is expected to pass through
western Kansas by Saturday night as an upper level system over the
northwestern United States passes over the upper level ridge into
the Great Lakes. High temperatures ought to drop at least several
degrees by Sunday to the lower and mid 90s, and probably to around
90F by Monday and Tuesday. There will be small chances for
thunderstorms as the front passes and even behind the front into
Monday. A large upper level trough will persist over the upper
Midwest and Great Lakes regions through the remainder of next
week, resulting in a continued break from the hot temperatures.
There will be small chances for thunderstorms given the lack of
mid level capping; but it appears as though the upper level
pattern may be too amplified for sufficient lee troughing and
destabilization in the presence of the northwesterly mid to upper
level flow.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
ISSUED AT 1205 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

VFR conditions are expected given that the 00Z NAM BUFR soundings
indicating limited mid to high level moisture will be present across
western Kansas as an upper high slowly moves east across Colorado
through late Wednesday. A weak cold front will move across western
Kansas early Wednesday morning. Winds at less than 10knots will
shift from the south to the northeast as this front passes. Light
northeast winds will then gradually veer to the southeast by late
day as a surface pressures begin to fall along the lee of the
Rockies and the surface ridge axis moves east towards Iowa and
Missouri.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  95  69 100  74 /  10  10  10  20
GCK  96  69 101  73 /  10  10  10  10
EHA  96  70 100  72 /  10  10  10  20
LBL  97  69 101  73 /  10  10  10  10
HYS  94  69  99  74 /  10  10  10  20
P28  98  71  99  74 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Burgert
LONG TERM...Finch
AVIATION...Burgert






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