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000
FXUS63 KDDC 230849
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
349 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

...UPDATED LONG TERM DISCUSSION...


.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

AS EXPECTED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WAS GRADUALLY ADVECTING INTO MY
COUNTY WARNING AREA ON THE HEELS OF AN EASTERLY WIND. SURFACES
PRESSURES WILL CONTINUE TO FALL IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NEW MEXICO
AND COLORADO AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST
BEHIND A S/WV TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT AND EASTERLY COMPONENT ALL DAY. STRATUS,
ALTHOUGH NO NECESSARILY LOW, WILL DEVELOP OR ADVECT INTO THE MY
AREA LIMITING SOLAR INSOLATION. THUS TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE
COOLER THAN WHAT OCCURRED TUESDAY.

AS FOR PRECIPITATION...HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS HAD BEEN PERSISTENT
IN DEVELOPING ELEVATED SHOWERS BY SUNRISE BUT NOTHING IS SUPPORTED
BY CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. HOWEVER, LATER IN THE DAY AS UPSLOPE FLOW
CONTINUES AND AT LEAST SOME ISENTROPIC LIFTING OCCURS, THERE COULD
STILL BE A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM. TONIGHT IT APPEARS THAT A WEAK
MID-LEVEL JET STREAK WILL IMPINGE ON KANSAS AND ADDITIONAL CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

MOISTURE RETURN ALONG WITH 850MB WARM AIR ADVECTION AND I295-I305
ISENTROPIC LIFT CAN BE EXPECTED EARLY IN THE DAY ON FRIDAY NORTH OF
A WARM FRONT THAT WILL BE MOVING FROM THE PANHANDLE OF TEXAS INTO
SOUTHWEST KANSAS. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BRIEFLY END EARLY IN
THE DAY BUT BY LATE DAY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE WARM FRONT AND NEAR A DEEPENING
SURFACE LEE TROUGH. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATED LATE DAY MUCAPES IN
EXCESS OF 2000J/KG. 0-6KM SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE GREATER THAN 30KTS
SO ROTATING UPDRAFTS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM ANY STORM THAT DOES
DEVELOP FRIDAY EVENING. THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE WARM FRONT IS
STILL SOMEWHAT UNCLEAR FRIDAY AFTERNOON, HOWEVER ALL THE MODELS THIS
MORNING DO AGREE THAT NORTH OF THIS FRONT CLOUDS AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES CAN ARE EXPECTED. AT THIS TIME BASED ON THE NAM AND GFS
LOCATION OF THIS SURFACE FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 70S ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS WHILE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST
OF THIS WARM FRONT NEAR 90 DEGREES HIGHS WILL BE LIKELY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE WESTERN
UNITED STATES OVER THE WEEKEND PERIOD AS A SERIES OF SUBTLE UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE ROTATE AROUND THIS SYSTEM. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE
FOR LATE DAY THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN KANSAS ON
SATURDAY AND AGAIN SUNDAY AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE/DRYLINE REMAINS IN OR NEAR FAR WESTERN KANSAS AS ANY SUBTLE
DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. 850-700MB
TEMPERATURE TRENDS SUGGESTING HIGHS REBOUNDING BACK INTO THE 90S
BOTH DAYS ACROSS MOST OF WESTERN KANSAS.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE
WESTERN UNITED STATES UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE EAST. MODELS
THIS MORNING DIFFER ON HOW QUICKLY THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST AND AT
THIS TIME CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ON WHICH ON WILL BE MORE CORRECT.
AS A RESULT WILL STAY CLOSE TO PERSISTENCE AND CREXTENDFCST _INIT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1257 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE INTO THE HAYS AREA BY 10Z AND INTO GCK AND
DDC BY 12Z. AT THE SAME TIME A WARM FRONT ACROSS WEST AND CENTRAL
TEXAS WILL LIFT NORTH INTO THE TX PANHANDLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD. MOISTENING EASTERLY WINDS HAVE COMMENCED AND WILL BE
REINFORCED BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT. THERE WAS ALREADY
STRATUS BEHIND THE FRONT AND AS THE SURFACE FLOW MOVES WEST INTO
HIGHER TERRAIN STRATUS WILL BEGIN TO FORM SOUTH OF THE FRONT BY
SUNRISE. INITIAL THINKING IS MVFR CEILINGS MAY BE REACHED AT HYS
BY 12Z BUT SHOULD REMAIN HIGHER AT DDC/GCK. I`VE LEFT PCPN OUT OF
THE TERMINALS FOR NOW BUT WILL WATCH FOR ELEVATED DEVELOPMENT
EARLY THIS MORNING AS HIGH RESOLUTION FORECAST MODELS SHOW SOME
ACTIVITY BY SUNRISE AROUND HAYS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  71  56  80  63 /  20  30  20  30
GCK  70  57  81  63 /  20  30  20  30
EHA  75  58  86  61 /  20  30  40  40
LBL  73  60  85  64 /  20  30  20  30
HYS  70  54  76  62 /  20  30  30  30
P28  72  55  78  65 /  20  30  30  30

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$


SHORT TERM...HUTTON
LONG TERM...BURGERT
AVIATION...HUTTON